Pitching and Pipelines

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure what people expect. I also don't agree that filling the front of the line from outside doesn't count as filling the pipeline. Let's look at the Twins pitching pipeline.....

The goal is to have good pitchers, if you draft them, sign free agents, or trade for them. An obsession over how they fill the pipeline seems like it is looking at reasons not to like or to like a FO, rather than looking at if they have good pitchers.

Zero players drafted in the last two years are in the majors, they haven't had 6+ years to fill the MLB roster. Zero minor league pitchers that they inherited are good starting pitchers anywhere in the majors. Outside Twins' territory, no more than 1 or 2 were ever projected by analysts to be starting pitchers. They also had to fill offensive issues. They can't only draft pitchers (just look at last year's OF debacle with all the injuries for evidence of that).

They traded part of the pipeline, the 18th overall pick a couple years ago, for a number 2 starter. He put up good numbers last year, but wasn't healthy enough to pitch quite enough. If he continues the last two years or so, they'll have traded a HS pitcher 2-3 years from the majors for 2 years of a very good starter. That is a good trade when your team is good (as it would have been last year with average health), but an average to bad trade when your team isn't quite good enough. If they are out of it at the deadline, they'll get a lesser prospect back than they traded, but them's the breaks. To be clear, I think dealing a HS pitcher for a number 2 starter is a good trade. YMMV.

They traded two months of a player they didn't need anymore for 6.5 years of a number 3 starter. How filling the pipeline from outside doesn't count, I don't know. But this was a great trade. Ryan was a number three last year, as a rookie. 

They traded for Mahle. This one is controversial for many. I get it. But, if your team is in the playoff hunt, and you can trade numbers of prospects for a number 2/3 type with 1.5 years left, I get it. There wasn't a lot to choose from during the trade deadline. It was him or the guy NYY traded for (who was also hurt, but I'm sure their FO is better). I am good with going for it when your team is in the hunt. This was the issue so many fans complained about Ryan never doing, then they do it, and those same fans complained. Can't please everyone.

They have Ober and Varland. Yup, Ober got hurt. If he's healthy, he looks like a 3/4 or so. Varland looks like a 4 that will look like a 3 some days. You know, sometimes guys get hurt. 

They have SWR (traded a guy that wanted a six year deal for him and Martin....the Twins have zero six year deals to pitchers in their history). He's part of the pipeline. Saying he hasn't proved anything yet seems odd. The idea of a pipeline is that you have good players in the minors ready to step up (like Varland last year).

They have Winder, Balazovic (sp?) (who going into last year most considered a future starter or RP at worst). They have Henriquez, who is like 22? They have Paddock (not my favorite risk, but they may get lucky). They have Maeda (great trade that first year. I think he's a RP this year). They have Headrick and Enlow further down, and a couple more younger than them. 

This doesn't consider moving Duran to starter......nor does it look at their RPs at all. 

Your starting pitchers:

Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Varland (three of those guys are controlled for 4 more years or more)

Your backups:

SWR, Winder, Jordy B, Henriquez, Maeda (maybe) (all but Mahle still have rookie eligibility)

Your longer term backups:

Enlow, Headrick, Paddock

That's the best staff this team has had in a long time (outside 2019). 

They've basically added Ryan, Ober, and Varland in the last two years. It took awhile, but they look to have some depth behind those.

My biggest issue? Not signing one of the elite SPs last year. I'd love to have someone better or same as Gray on this roster for the next 4-5 years. A proven guy. 

I'm not expert on their whole system, I'm sure I'm missing part of the pipeline. But, this system, top to bottom, is much better than it has been in years. I mean, Bundy and Archer were the two worst starters by ERA last year....and they are replaced by Ober and Varland......

 

If you think that's not a pipeline at all, what do you expect from a team? If you don't think filling the front of the pipe thru trades count, I doubt we can agree on how to measure if a FO puts together a good staff, which is the goal.

[Malachi]

Great article

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Malachi said:

Great article

I'm about 25% done actually analyzing every rookie SP for the last few years also.....thanks,

[August J Gloop]

Tyler Mahle is only controversial if you take for granted that he definitely was going to throw 16.1 injured innings. If anything, they should be bummed for not pushing harder to get Mahle at the same time as Grey. If The twins had received the innings thrown in Cincinnati, they likely win the division. I know he only rated a 2 win pitcher, but that's another failing of the WAR system. The replacement is hypothetical. Take Mahle's 19 pre deadline starts in stead of whatever archer was doing, and we get a much better second half bullpen. Easily worth closer to 5 wins to the twins. 

[Vanimal46]

You know what people expect from a development pipeline Mike… To draft and develop a starting pitcher. Hasn’t happened yet. 

Another disagreement in your argument is you calling Varland and Ober successes. Varland and SWR have a cup of coffee in the majors. They are still TBD in my analysis. There is upside with Ober for sure, but he has only topped 100 innings once in his professional career. Injuries happen, but they are a trend for Ober every year. 

I hope this is the year we finally see if there’s anything substantial with the pipeline. Diehard fans can rattle off 10 names every offseason to convince themselves that the pipeline is deep. I’m old enough to remember when Alex Meyer was crowned future ace of the team. And Stephen Gonsalves being a mid rotation starter. Until we see actual results, it’s nothing but selling hope. 

[Mike Sixel]

48 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You know what people expect from a development pipeline Mike… To draft and develop a starting pitcher. Hasn’t happened yet. 

Another disagreement in your argument is you calling Varland and Ober successes. Varland and SWR have a cup of coffee in the majors. They are still TBD in my analysis. There is upside with Ober for sure, but he has only topped 100 innings once in his professional career. Injuries happen, but they are a trend for Ober every year. 

I hope this is the year we finally see if there’s anything substantial with the pipeline. Diehard fans can rattle off 10 names every offseason to convince themselves that the pipeline is deep. I’m old enough to remember when Alex Meyer was crowned future ace of the team. And Stephen Gonsalves being a mid rotation starter. Until we see actual results, it’s nothing but selling hope. 

I don't understand how it doesn't count they were smart enough to trade for Ryan, but check it out......check out my next article, wherein I show Winder to actually be a success by your criteria. Oh, and Dobnak.

[gunnarthor]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what people expect. I also don't agree that filling the front of the line from outside doesn't count as filling the pipeline. Let's look at the Twins pitching pipeline.....

The goal is to have good pitchers, if you draft them, sign free agents, or trade for them. An obsession over how they fill the pipeline seems like it is looking at reasons not to like or to like a FO, rather than looking at if they have good pitchers.

Zero players drafted in the last two years are in the majors, they haven't had 6+ years to fill the MLB roster. Zero minor league pitchers that they inherited are good starting pitchers anywhere in the majors. Outside Twins' territory, no more than 1 or 2 were ever projected by analysts to be starting pitchers. They also had to fill offensive issues. They can't only draft pitchers (just look at last year's OF debacle with all the injuries for evidence of that).

They traded part of the pipeline, the 18th overall pick a couple years ago, for a number 2 starter. He put up good numbers last year, but wasn't healthy enough to pitch quite enough. If he continues the last two years or so, they'll have traded a HS pitcher 2-3 years from the majors for 2 years of a very good starter. That is a good trade when your team is good (as it would have been last year with average health), but an average to bad trade when your team isn't quite good enough. If they are out of it at the deadline, they'll get a lesser prospect back than they traded, but them's the breaks. To be clear, I think dealing a HS pitcher for a number 2 starter is a good trade. YMMV.

They traded two months of a player they didn't need anymore for 6.5 years of a number 3 starter. How filling the pipeline from outside doesn't count, I don't know. But this was a great trade. Ryan was a number three last year, as a rookie. 

They traded for Mahle. This one is controversial for many. I get it. But, if your team is in the playoff hunt, and you can trade numbers of prospects for a number 2/3 type with 1.5 years left, I get it. There wasn't a lot to choose from during the trade deadline. It was him or the guy NYY traded for (who was also hurt, but I'm sure their FO is better). I am good with going for it when your team is in the hunt. This was the issue so many fans complained about Ryan never doing, then they do it, and those same fans complained. Can't please everyone.

They have Ober and Varland. Yup, Ober got hurt. If he's healthy, he looks like a 3/4 or so. Varland looks like a 4 that will look like a 3 some days. You know, sometimes guys get hurt. 

They have SWR (traded a guy that wanted a six year deal for him and Martin....the Twins have zero six year deals to pitchers in their history). He's part of the pipeline. Saying he hasn't proved anything yet seems odd. The idea of a pipeline is that you have good players in the minors ready to step up (like Varland last year).

They have Winder, Balazovic (sp?) (who going into last year most considered a future starter or RP at worst). They have Henriquez, who is like 22? They have Paddock (not my favorite risk, but they may get lucky). They have Maeda (great trade that first year. I think he's a RP this year). They have Headrick and Enlow further down, and a couple more younger than them. 

This doesn't consider moving Duran to starter......nor does it look at their RPs at all. 

Your starting pitchers:

Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Varland (three of those guys are controlled for 4 more years or more)

Your backups:

SWR, Winder, Jordy B, Henriquez, Maeda (maybe) (all but Mahle still have rookie eligibility)

Your longer term backups:

Enlow, Headrick, Paddock

That's the best staff this team has had in a long time (outside 2019). 

They've basically added Ryan, Ober, and Varland in the last two years. It took awhile, but they look to have some depth behind those.

My biggest issue? Not signing one of the elite SPs last year. I'd love to have someone better or same as Gray on this roster for the next 4-5 years. A proven guy. 

I'm not expert on their whole system, I'm sure I'm missing part of the pipeline. But, this system, top to bottom, is much better than it has been in years. I mean, Bundy and Archer were the two worst starters by ERA last year....and they are replaced by Ober and Varland......

 

If you think that's not a pipeline at all, what do you expect from a team? If you don't think filling the front of the pipe thru trades count, I doubt we can agree on how to measure if a FO puts together a good staff, which is the goal.

I just don't agree with you and a lot of your opinions are not that defensible. The main argument I have though is that you think a lot of very, very unproven arms should be categorized as "good pitchers" now. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder? They are all unproven and, mostly outside of TD, not well regarded by national sources. Why do you think they'll be better than guys like Gil, Ynoa, Stewart, etc? And a lot of your argument is just hyperbole. We traded Chase Petty for a number 2 pitcher? OK. Of all pitchers who topped 100 innings last year, Gray was 56th in WAR. That's a #2? Fine. I mean, he's a solid pitcher but he wouldn't have been the #2 starter on many playoff rotations. 

But they have had a lot of time to create a pipeline and nothing has come from it. They traded off arms like Gil and Ynoa - both of whom are coming off TJ surgery but have fans on playoff caliber teams - and were unable to develop the few top 100 pitchign prospects they inherited. Enlow, Leach (who they claimed were both first round talents) have been busts. SWR continued his descent down prospect rankings after we signed him.

But, to answer your question - what should a pipeline look like? The answer is the Twins of the 2000s. In that decade, less than 10% of all starts were made by FA signings (and that COUNTS Radke's resigning.) They developed an ace (Santana) and had a ton of real, ML quality arms behind him that constantly came up and pitched. We don't have a Santana in our system but we also don't have a Radke, Liriano, Baker, Garza, Milton, Silva, Slowey, etc. We have a few that might be as good as Blackburn (who gave us two back to back 200ip, 2WAR seasons). But we knew what we had - we'd get ML quality pitchers who could throw strikes and keep the team in the game. Right now, I have no idea what the pipeline is intended to even create. Starting pitchers? Or do we want a bunch of two-pitch pitchers who can be cogs in a bullpen and go up and down to AAA as the team needs? 

[Beast]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand how it doesn't count they were smart enough to trade for Ryan, but check it out......check out my next article, wherein I show Winder to actually be a success by your criteria. Oh, and Dobnak.

We’re going to crown them a developmental success over Winder and Dobnak?  I guess we have differing thresholds of success.  Guys who can’t stay healthy and you’re not comfortable throwing in a playoff series are just guys, not successes.

They didn’t develop Ryan.  I’ll give them all the credit in the world for acquiring Ryan and Gray.  Great moves.  Doesn’t mean they can develop pitching.

Your missing the point, I think.  We’ve long been told (and told we don’t know baseball if we disagree) that the only road to success for this franchise is to develop a pitching pipeline.  You can’t twist that into saying acquiring Sonny Gray technically means they’ve developed a pipeline.  That’s acquiring external talent - we’ve been told that’s not sustainable for this franchise.

So, they were brought in to develop an internal pipeline of good pitching prospects that turn into successful major leaguers.  If we want to argue whether Randy Dobnak is a developmental coup by this FO, different conversation.

The facts are that they haven’t developed the pitching requisite to sustain success through an internal pipeline (see Cleveland).  That’s not saying it won’t happen.  But, it’s hasn’t.  No matter how badly you may want it to have happened.  There’s no grey area here, and no “well, but, the previous regime,” or “well, they traded for a guy.”  This is about the internal infrastructure to identify a young pitcher years out from the majors and coach him to an impactful major league career contributing to a successful, winning, franchise.

Even if we want to agree to call what you’re calling a pipeline a pipeline…still not successful.  This team sucks, frankly.  All the decent pitching brought in from Cincinnati and Tampa hasn’t helped a lick.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you think that's not a pipeline at all, what do you expect from a team? If you don't think filling the front of the pipe thru trades count, I doubt we can agree on how to measure if a FO puts together a good staff, which is the goal.

Apparently, people (not you) don't pay any attention to how other teams have built a pipeline. Cleveland traded for Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco / Trevor Bauer / Mike Clevinger and more recently Cal Quantrill / Emmanuel Clause and  Konnoe Pilkington. Outside of Bieber, their best pitchers have been acquired as prospects via trade.  The Marlins acquired Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the same trade from the Cardinals.  They also acquired Lopez and Luzardo via trade.

The fact is that we have the 10th best record in the league since this regime was hired.  Not stellar but a very long way from the abomination some are making it out to be.  We have 78 more wins than the Rangers / Nationals and 90 wins more than the Royals and 110 more than the Tigers over that period.

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I just don't agree with you and a lot of your opinions are not that defensible. The main argument I have though is that you think a lot of very, very unproven arms should be categorized as "good pitchers" now. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder? They are all unproven and, mostly outside of TD, not well regarded by national sources. Why do you think they'll be better than guys like Gil, Ynoa, Stewart, etc? And a lot of your argument is just hyperbole. We traded Chase Petty for a number 2 pitcher? OK. Of all pitchers who topped 100 innings last year, Gray was 56th in WAR. That's a #2? Fine. I mean, he's a solid pitcher but he wouldn't have been the #2 starter on many playoff rotations. 

But they have had a lot of time to create a pipeline and nothing has come from it. They traded off arms like Gil and Ynoa - both of whom are coming off TJ surgery but have fans on playoff caliber teams - and were unable to develop the few top 100 pitchign prospects they inherited. Enlow, Leach (who they claimed were both first round talents) have been busts. SWR continued his descent down prospect rankings after we signed him.

But, to answer your question - what should a pipeline look like? The answer is the Twins of the 2000s. In that decade, less than 10% of all starts were made by FA signings (and that COUNTS Radke's resigning.) They developed an ace (Santana) and had a ton of real, ML quality arms behind him that constantly came up and pitched. We don't have a Santana in our system but we also don't have a Radke, Liriano, Baker, Garza, Milton, Silva, Slowey, etc. We have a few that might be as good as Blackburn (who gave us two back to back 200ip, 2WAR seasons). But we knew what we had - we'd get ML quality pitchers who could throw strikes and keep the team in the game. Right now, I have no idea what the pipeline is intended to even create. Starting pitchers? Or do we want a bunch of two-pitch pitchers who can be cogs in a bullpen and go up and down to AAA as the team needs? 

No, I said those guys are part of a pipeline. The pipeline includes your AAA and backup players, doesn't it? Maybe not, maybe it now only includes proven MLB players. Like Joe Ryan? And yes, Sonny Gray was a number 2 pitcher. Or, at worst, a number 3. Enlow had surgery, and just came back last year. I'm not sure how that's a development issue. Want to bet on SWR being a number three or better more times than not (unless hurt) over the next 5 years?

How much time have they had? They have had 2017, 18, 19 and 20 drafts by your definition. 4 years. How many starters do you expect in four years (and hitters too)? Because no one from 21 or 22 drafts is a legit starting pitcher in the majors. 

[KirbyDome89]

Some of this might be nitpicking but....

I'm 100% fine with drafting the best available player and not going all in on arms. This FO inherited a really nice group of positional talent. If they weren't going to stockpile arms the last 5 years, ok but then deal some of the positional prospects, not Chase Petty, for established arms. Easier said than done, and maybe it's an impossibility, but then that's misreading the market IMO. You can't miss on guys like Sabato and Cavaco back to back either. Also, I think it bears mentioning how the Twins have acquired some of the talent being talked about. You brought up the Berrios and Cruz trades; those don't happen if the team isn't experiencing TSF 2.0, a disaster to which the pitching side greatly contributed. This FO preached sustainability; there's nothing sustainable about that avenue of talent acquisition. 

In a vacuum Petty for Gray isn't necessarily a bad swap despite what I said above. In the right situation I think it could end up being a good trade. My critique (similar to one of yours) is that Gray should've been brought in alongside a true frontline guy via FA that would've added some stability beyond a year or two. Giving up Petty (to me) signified a willingness to compete, but Gray at the front wasn't going to be enough. We knew that before last season began. The FO essentially bet the season on an inexperienced/volatile (from an injury standpoint) group of arms, and it went poorly. That burned a Gray year, and now this year looks pretty lackluster too. I guess if he's healthy, Gray can be moved now, or at the deadline, but I have no idea if they'll get a Petty-esque return. I'd rather see this club try to win games than hoard prospects and sell hope, so hopefully what I'm about to say isn't seen as contradicting that, but if you're doing "just enough," i.e. trading a 1st round arm for 2 years of Gray but still entering a year with an obviously flawed staff, while simultaneously claiming to prioritize draft/development and having zero intention of spending any real money in FA, I have to question the move. 

I don't think anybody is down on the Ryan swap. I'm one of those who doesn't count him as a "pipeline," product. For me it's simple, he was a complete pitcher when they got him, and he spent almost zero time at AAA. He wasn't drafted, nor developed by this organization. We don't count a guy like Odo as a pipeline product, similarly, I don't count Ryan. I agree that when we're talking about adding talent overall the distinction doesn't matter, but I think it's important to draw the line when handing out credit for pitching this FO has actually produced. 

I agree, I was in favor of adding talent at the deadline. You just have to get it right, and they didn't. The results matter, as much as some might want to waive them away. 

I'm pretty low on Ober. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I just think the guy is a massive injury risk and totally unreliable from a rotation standpoint. Varland is a complete unknown, there's not much more to say about him. Ditto for SWR. Sure, they're part of the pipeline. 

Again, I'm down on Winder. He's been shelved 3x in the last 2 years with shoulder issues. He hasn't looked all that great as a SP either. Maybe he stays healthy and can be a backend guy but that might be the best case scenario. Balazovic? Yeah, no clue after his abysmal performance last year. Henriquez is a RP now. Idk if I have a strong opinion on Duran as a starter, it probably depends on how some of the aforementioned names perform this year. 

That's pretty much it as far as pipeline for the near future is concerned. You've got SWR and Varland who might be mid rotation guys if everything breaks right. That might even be a little kind for Varland. Winder and Balazovic look like question marks. Maybe you can count Winder as a RP? What are the odds they get 2 solid starting arms out of that group? What about even getting 1? 

As far as the pitching outlook for this year, yeah, at surface level you can read the names and maybe see the rotation doing enough to win a really bad division. Would it shock anybody if Cleveland was mediocre? I'm not going to count Henriquez or Balazovic as backup options, at least within the first few months. I reserve the right to be totally wrong there. That leaves us with 8 starting candidates, a seemingly robust number, but 4 of them (Winder, Maeda, Ober, and Mahle) have MASSIVE durability concerns. Gray is a different conversation IMO, and Paddack is a non-factor this year. We don't have a choice, the Twins are going to bank on a health resurgence, but for at least a couple of those guys, the injuries issues run deeper than just last year. 

Do I think the Twins have a pipeline? Sure, people can call it whatever they'd like. Obviously the term is mocked because it was used to overexaggerate the amount and depth of talent that was supposed to be coming through. What did I expect by this point? Something more than hoping to get a mid rotation starter out of a couple guys with no MLB track record (yes Duran is a beast.) If people want to argue Ober, fine, but I've explained my stance there. The goalposts keep shifting. Last year it was Ober and Winder. Now it's SWR and Varland. We're entering year 7 and still crossing our fingers on the 4-5 spot in the rotation. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

No, I said those guys are part of a pipeline. The pipeline includes your AAA and backup players, doesn't it? Maybe not, maybe it now only includes proven MLB players. Like Joe Ryan? And yes, Sonny Gray was a number 2 pitcher. Or, at worst, a number 3. Enlow had surgery, and just came back last year. I'm not sure how that's a development issue. Want to bet on SWR being a number three or better more times than not (unless hurt) over the next 5 years?

How much time have they had? They have had 2017, 18, 19 and 20 drafts by your definition. 4 years. How many starters do you expect in four years (and hitters too)? Because no one from 21 or 22 drafts is a legit starting pitcher in the majors. 

Tbh I'd call Gray a #3 easily. But whatever, can't argue that we have a lot more potential on the staff than we've had in forever. Ryan looks to have #2 potential imo. But if we can't develop, and haven't since Santana, a TOP, then there is a way to get one. BY FA which they seem to refuse to do. I don't think we have in the organization what would be needed to acquire one by trade.

Lineup is a real mess though....

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

They developed an ace (Santana) and had a ton of real, 

Santana was a Rule 5 pick (well technically the Twins acquired him in a trade of Rule 5 picks). The Twins didn't develop him anymore than they developed Ryan. Same with Liriano (acquired as an MLB ready arm in a trade). So if you're going to give the Twins credit for "developing" those 2 in particular, you have to at least agree with the premise that a pipeline can be built around trades for MLB ready arms.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Santana was a Rule 5 pick (well technically the Twins acquired him in a trade of Rule 5 picks). The Twins didn't develop him anymore than they developed Ryan. Same with Liriano (acquired as an MLB ready arm in a trade). So if you're going to give the Twins credit for "developing" those 2 in particular, you have to at least agree with the premise that a pipeline can be built around trades for MLB ready arms.

Santana went back to the minors where he developed his change up after his rule v year. The twins acquired Liriano when he was 19, I believe, and spent a few years on top 100 prospects for us. 

I have no problem with the pipeline being developed in any method. Trades, rule v, waiver wire, drafts, international signings, are all ways to develop the pipeline. I liked the Ryan trade. But the pipeline, right now, is really bad. Your opinion can be different. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Santana went back to the minors where he developed his change up after his rule v year. The twins acquired Liriano when he was 19, I believe, and spent a few years on top 100 prospects for us. 

I have no problem with the pipeline being developed in any method. Trades, rule v, waiver wire, drafts, international signings, are all ways to develop the pipeline. I liked the Ryan trade. But the pipeline, right now, is really bad. Your opinion can be different. 

I don't think the pipeline is anywhere near where it needs to be, for the record. I think they need to start developing frontline pitching, not just major league pitchers. I was simply saying that suggesting they developed Santana and Liriano is a bit of a stretch. Liriano debuted the year after they aquired him, and Santana debuted, obviously, the year they acquired him. I was just saying that using those 2 as an example of pipeline success really changes the definition of the pipeline. Which was part of the original post.

I don't care how they acquire pitching either. I'm with you there. Just get some guys who can start game 1 of the World Series. I have high hopes for Prielipp, and have a bad feeling we're going to look poorly upon the Petty trade in a few years. Even if I don't think it was a bad trade to make.

[Dman]

Some really great comments on this topic.  I think part of the issue that Mike brought up is perception (i.e what should the expectation of the pipeline be).  The other part is that Falvey from Cleveland was supposed to do in Minnesota what he had helped do in Cleveland and to this point the pitching pipeline seems underwhelming, at least IMO. While ERA is just one piece in 2022 as a team Cleveland ranked tied for 5th and the Twins were 19th in team ERA.  Pretty much all the teams in the top 10 of that stat went to the playoffs.  What is my point? Whatever the FO is doing whether trading for guys or developing them they appear to be doing it worse than league average at the MLB level.  Yep lots of injuries last year and we never really did get to use Mahle much but the FO needs to do better than this on the pitching side.

I also want to highlight a point KirbyDome89 made.  While I get that being balanced in the draft can be a good thing at some point when you have a deficiency I think you should focus more on that area.  The Twins have focused on bats early in the draft and generally taken pitching later.  That is fine if that strategy works out but now the team has a glut of hitters and not the same level of pitching to go with it.  I also want to point out that the one year the Twins broke this trend in 2021 they took Petty, Hajjar and Povich in rounds 1,2, and 3 and what did they use as trade currency.  Yep the pitchers picked in the higher rounds.

I think the Twins need to take more swings at pitching in the draft. In 2021 Cleveland picked 18 pitchers in a 20 round draft.  When you have a deficiency you need to take more shots at what you need and you should do it on the premium talent early in the draft as well as late.  With all the trades the pitching pipeline further down at high A is essentially broken so there will be a gap there now.

While the Twins have a pitching pipeline it hasn't been enough to lift this team where it needs to go and that has been the difference between the Twins and Cleveland.  I think that is why so many of us feel it is broken or not working well.

Love the positive vibs Mike.  There is some success and some good things coming, I hope, but right now today it is hard to feel good about it.

[Trov]

15 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I just don't agree with you and a lot of your opinions are not that defensible. The main argument I have though is that you think a lot of very, very unproven arms should be categorized as "good pitchers" now. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder? They are all unproven and, mostly outside of TD, not well regarded by national sources. Why do you think they'll be better than guys like Gil, Ynoa, Stewart, etc? And a lot of your argument is just hyperbole. We traded Chase Petty for a number 2 pitcher? OK. Of all pitchers who topped 100 innings last year, Gray was 56th in WAR. That's a #2? Fine. I mean, he's a solid pitcher but he wouldn't have been the #2 starter on many playoff rotations. 

But they have had a lot of time to create a pipeline and nothing has come from it. They traded off arms like Gil and Ynoa - both of whom are coming off TJ surgery but have fans on playoff caliber teams - and were unable to develop the few top 100 pitchign prospects they inherited. Enlow, Leach (who they claimed were both first round talents) have been busts. SWR continued his descent down prospect rankings after we signed him.

But, to answer your question - what should a pipeline look like? The answer is the Twins of the 2000s. In that decade, less than 10% of all starts were made by FA signings (and that COUNTS Radke's resigning.) They developed an ace (Santana) and had a ton of real, ML quality arms behind him that constantly came up and pitched. We don't have a Santana in our system but we also don't have a Radke, Liriano, Baker, Garza, Milton, Silva, Slowey, etc. We have a few that might be as good as Blackburn (who gave us two back to back 200ip, 2WAR seasons). But we knew what we had - we'd get ML quality pitchers who could throw strikes and keep the team in the game. Right now, I have no idea what the pipeline is intended to even create. Starting pitchers? Or do we want a bunch of two-pitch pitchers who can be cogs in a bullpen and go up and down to AAA as the team needs? 

Okay, you were making so decent points until you got to your last paragraph about the 2000's pitching pipeline.  First, Radke was never regarded as a top prospect, top guy, even when Twins were winning, and when he was our number 1, many said he would be a 3 on at top playoff team at best.  Liriano, we traded for, so we did not draft and develop, he was in our system 1 year before making debut, and he was a flash in a pan situation, never lived up to hype. Garza was okay for us, but we traded away and was better away from us.  Milton we traded for, never pitched in minors, and was not anything amazing never had ERA below 4, Silva we also traded for, no minor league games with us, and he was a 4 or 5 starter at best as well.  Slowey, had 1 okay year with us, other than that another 4 or 5 starter at best.  Baker was another okay middle of rotation guy.  You attack all our current guys Ryan, Ober, Varland, SWR, for not being Santana basically, but back it up by touting guys that were at the same level or worse.  You say they may be as good as Blackburn or worse, but Milton, Silva, Slowly, Baker, ect, are all very much in the same boat.  

I am not saying this group will be amazing, but how can you say the "pipeline" from 2000's was anything great?  Radke was before 2000's and Santana was only success, again not signed by us originally, but we did teach him the change up.  Outside of that we had almost no draft success or early trade successes and the names you list are no where near top guys, which was always our problem. 

[Twodogs]

I think Ryan can be counted in the pipeline, but I also think there is a difference.  So Ryan in his rookie season was 26 years old.  Santana and Liriano we're both 21 when brought up to the majors and Santana had like a 6.70 and a 4.70 eras for his first two seasons.  Liriano also spent 300+ innings in the minors in the Twins system.  He did that in 2 seasons.  Now it would take 4 years for some prospect to accumulate over 300 innings in the twins system.  Brad Rake is similar in that he was brought up and allowed to fail early.  Derek Jeter says to young players be prepared to fail, if you can handle failure you have a chance at making it.  Now had Joe Ryan struggled really bad last year the Twins would probably be pivoting away from him.  Because he is so old.  I really think if you want a pipeline to produce you need to get these guys up here when they are 21 years old and see what they can do.  Then when they fail, they can go back down and work on those things that didn't go well and come back in a year or two and still only be 23.  They need to be pushed when they are in the minors, to see if they can handle it, not constantly babied with ridiculously low inning limits, it's seems to me that with these limits they are trying to develop relief pitchers and not starters.  Anyway I digress, they need to bring these guys up early either their stuff plays or it doesn't.  If it doesn't they are young enough to develop another pitch, ie Santana's changeup.  Or they can then be groomed to be a relief pitcher or something else.  But when they wait until they are 24 or older to finally bring them up it's like do or die, either they produce right away or they move on from them.  I'm hoping they give SWR a real shot this year as he will turn 23 this season.  He will need time to fix stuff if it doesn't work in the bigs.  Maybe he will be a polished reliable starter by the time he is 25. But he probably won't if he rots in the Twins minor league system much longer.  

 

Also, on a side note.  Seems like Cleveland is still bringing up pitchers that do pretty well.  I mean Falvey hasn't been there since 2017?  So maybe the smart GM had nothing to do with the Cleveland pipeline, maybe he just drafted kids and traded for some others and someone, a pitching coach, a baseball guy, in the Cleveland system developed these kids and turned them into really good pitchers???  Falvey supplied them with raw materials and the system made something out of those raw materials.  I wonder if people maybe think that if the Twins had all of those raw materials that Cleveland had that they still wouldn't develop any pitching.  I sometimes think that the Twins need to quit trying to spend 100's of millions of dollars on bringing in some player who is going to be the savior of the franchise and maybe spend those 100's of millions and steal away the coaches in Clevelands organization, and spend that money of the player development people in Houston's and the Dodgers organizations.  Then they'd probably be able to save their money on free agents and then turn around and spend it on the guys that they develop.  I'm starting to think it's not the GM's that produce these pipelines, it's the people working down in the systems that are doing it. I mean for example Falvey left like quite awhile ago and Cleveland still produces better overall pitching than the Twins.  I mean I'm sure these player development guys and coaches have a price too?

[Twodogs]

49 minutes ago, Trov said:

First, Radke was never regarded as a top prospect, top guy, even when Twins were winning, and when he was our number 1, many said he would be a 3 on at top playoff team at best

I remember people always dissing Radke.  But Radke retired when he was 33 with a 45.3 WAR.  To put that in perspective, Justin Verlander, (who by all accounts would be considered an Ace) only had a 51.4 WAR after his age 33 season. Not too much different when spread out over 10+ seasons.  I know Radke's arm was bothering him and he decided to retire instead of fixing it.  

[nicksaviking]

16 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Apparently, people (not you) don't pay any attention to how other teams have built a pipeline. Cleveland traded for Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco / Trevor Bauer / Mike Clevinger and more recently Cal Quantrill / Emmanuel Clause and  Konnoe Pilkington. Outside of Bieber, their best pitchers have been acquired as prospects via trade. 

And Bieber was only drafted the summer before Falvey left.

Throw in Zach McCallister and Justin Masterson along with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer and Clevinger and it's clear that trading vets for young pitching is clearly the method we should have been expecting this whole time. Danny Salazar was the only starting pitcher of note that was a Cleveland product from Day 1, and he wasn't drafted, he came out of the DR.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

And Bieber was only drafted the summer before Falvey left.

Throw in Zach McCallister and Justin Masterson along with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer and Clevinger and it's clear that trading vets for young pitching is clearly the method we should have been expecting this whole time. Danny Salazar was the only starting pitcher of note that was a Cleveland product from Day 1, and he wasn't drafted, he came out of the DR.

Good catch.  I forgot about McCallister and Masterson.  Of course, we all want them to draft/develop well too.  My point is IDK that they did not develop Johan Santana or Joe Ryan.  Would it have been more impressive or important if they had traded for a guy with the exact same ability that was 5 years out instead of a couple months?  Oakland has been the master at getting MLB ready guys.  Sign me up.

[nicksaviking]

Trading for pitchers in AAA certainly isn’t as asset efficient, but the success rate should be exponentially higher than drafting guys 4+ years from the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not trying to be positive or negative. I'm trying to look at his they do compared to everyone else. It's been four years of drafts, since zero people picked in 21or22 played in 22. I think people think they've had a lot more time than they've had 

Also, this is 100% why I trade Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco for pitching. 

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

 

I am not saying this group will be amazing, but how can you say the "pipeline" from 2000's was anything great?  Radke was before 2000's and Santana was only success, again not signed by us originally, but we did teach him the change up.  Outside of that we had almost no draft success or early trade successes and the names you list are no where near top guys, which was always our problem. 

Because that pipeline - and I agree that it doesn't matter how they acquired them - kept the team competitive every year (one sub-.500 season) from 01-10 without having to rely on free agents (for the decade, less than 80 starts, IIRC, by free agents not named Radke). That's what the current pipeline has to do. Everything else is white noise. We don't have a pipeline, right now, that can keep us competitive. Mike asked what a pipeline should look like. That's the answer. 

[gunnarthor]

Also, there seems to be two different issues in this.

1) Is Ryan part of the pipeline? Sure, in the sense that we traded for him and he was young and fits in. Sure. That's how a pipeline should be built. Trades, rule v, waivers, international signings, drafts. All are valid ways to build a pipeline.

2) Does the FO get credit for Ryan? Sure, in the sense that they identified a solid pitcher that they could acquire who fits. But no, they don't get credit for "developing" that pitcher into a ML pitcher. That difference really only matters when it comes to the question of, "can the Twins develop young pitching?" Ryan is not evidence that they can develop pitching. 

[Trov]

3 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I remember people always dissing Radke.  But Radke retired when he was 33 with a 45.3 WAR.  To put that in perspective, Justin Verlander, (who by all accounts would be considered an Ace) only had a 51.4 WAR after his age 33 season. Not too much different when spread out over 10+ seasons.  I know Radke's arm was bothering him and he decided to retire instead of fixing it.  

First off, I loved Radke and he was underrated by national people in my opinion.  He did not put up the flashy numbers but he was good at what he did.  I was simply saying he was not regarded as a top guy by many.  Also, he was drafted and debuted well before the 2000's which was part of my other point. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Also, there seems to be two different issues in this.

1) Is Ryan part of the pipeline? Sure, in the sense that we traded for him and he was young and fits in. Sure. That's how a pipeline should be built. Trades, rule v, waivers, international signings, drafts. All are valid ways to build a pipeline.

2) Does the FO get credit for Ryan? Sure, in the sense that they identified a solid pitcher that they could acquire who fits. But no, they don't get credit for "developing" that pitcher into a ML pitcher. That difference really only matters when it comes to the question of, "can the Twins develop young pitching?" Ryan is not evidence that they can develop pitching. 

truth. I wish we could acknowledge that second part. But nuance (even this broad) seems hard on this site.

I'm not convinced they can develop elite pitching. Part of that is passing on it in round one, IMO. Trading Petty might look bad in a few years, but you have to give up talent to get it. I don't begrudge that deal at all. Not taking Greene and taking Lewis? We'll see about that one. 

I'm also not yet convinced they can't. It really hasn't been as long as people think. If Prielipp is great, that will go a long way.

[gunnarthor]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

truth. I wish we could acknowledge that second part. But nuance (even this broad) seems hard on this site.

I'm not convinced they can develop elite pitching. Part of that is passing on it in round one, IMO. Trading Petty might look bad in a few years, but you have to give up talent to get it. I don't begrudge that deal at all. Not taking Greene and taking Lewis? We'll see about that one. 

I'm also not yet convinced they can't. It really hasn't been as long as people think. If Prielipp is great, that will go a long way.

I've actually been pondering this for a while. People get better at what they do. In everything. Folks forget that the Stockton/Malone Jazz looked over the hill long before they started making NBA finals. They got better. Belicheck failed at Cleveland. He got better. So can't Falvine get better?

I liked Terry Ryan but I also tend to ignore that his first waive of young guys sucked. Cordova, Becker, Stahoviach? Without going to baseball refeernce, I think that was the group. They floundered. So Ryan got back at it and tried again. And his next wave(s) were awesome. All of our success in the 2000s is because he got better at his job.

So, don't Falvey deserve some of that same patience? I'm not sure "deserve" is the right word but if they are getting the chance to learn, maybe they are getting better. I loved the last few drafts. Petty, Miller, Lee, Preilipp. There wasn't a lot of that overthinking it. They just grabbed some real talent. I do think Falvine has failed so far. But I'm hopeful that they also learned while failing so they can not fail going forward. Those two drafts - and the Berrios* and Ryan trades - suggest some growth. The 2021-2022 product suggests they have not. 

* (Berrios trade doesn't happen in the first place if the FO hadn't failed so much before then.)