Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed

[Steve71]

Insuring the contract could actually be the key to all this.  I have no idea how many insurers write these policies for these ginormous contracts, but I suspect it is a small number that do so.

I am sure the Twins also intended to insure Correa's contract, and if the insurer for the Giants had concerns and would not underwrite the policy without more medical information/investigation, I strongly suspect the Twins would have the same problem on their end.  Indeed, I would not be surprised to learn it is the same insurer utilized by both teams.

Cohen may not even need or want to pay the premiums and insure the contract, removing that issue entirely.

I am just spitballing, but it would fit the information we have so far.....

[Nick Nelson]

2 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Insuring the contract could actually be the key to all this.  I have no idea how many insurers write these policies for these ginormous contracts, but I suspect it is a small number that do so.

I am sure the Twins also intended to insure Correa's contract, and if the insurer for the Giants had concerns and would not underwrite the policy without more medical information/investigation, I strongly suspect the Twins would have the same problem on their end.  Indeed, I would not be surprised to learn it is the same insurer utilized by both teams.

Cohen may not even need or want to pay the premiums and insure the contract, removing that issue entirely.

I am just spitballing, but it would fit the information we have so far.....

Not a bad theory.

[h2oface]

18 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

…..oh, it’s a nick Nelson article. Should have expected that. Always leaving out key details that don’t fit his narrative 

I may not agree with, or have different take than Nick Nelson on a share of things, but asserting he always leaves out key details that don’t fit his narrative is just not true. Nick is very complete with his and the collection of facts available. We are lucky to have him. 

[KirbyDome89]

12 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Ah. I found it difficult to get a read on what was implied there. I perceived it as saying "we're not going to go back to our previous offer until we get a handle on this, and either way we're not raising our offer." Because of how definitive the following part was about not wanting to increase their offer.

You might be right, but to me that just points to an unwillingness to spend that I previously mentioned, not due diligence. 

[h2oface]

49 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean, let's be honest, you're evaluating through a different lens when you're talking about a 3-year deal vs. a 13-year-deal. 

Or they just don’t care and didn’t see it as a problem. Looks like a $ thing to me. And I am one that never wanted Correa at all. 

[ashbury]

A detail I haven't seen addressed (and my apologies if I missed it) is whether the Giants owe Correa any money at all.  Often when you reach agreement on a big ticket item, earnest money is put down and is at risk if the buyer pulls out. After all, they've taken the player off the market during a period of time that could matter, and what this cost Correa is at least debatable.

[mnfireman]

21 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Who's to say the ankle injury wasn't aggravated in some way this past season? Like, say, on the slide where he admitted he got scared because it was "vibrating"?.

This... Last years physical may have showed nothing, but after last season and a few incidents like this, maybe something showed different. Wear and tear happens with mileage.... 

[Steve J]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

Oh well...looks like it's about time to start bringing in the 5th tier FA's, and see if we can strike gold. That usually works for us...doesn't it? 

I hear Tony Batista isn't doing anything.  

[Linus]

46 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If the money spooked them, is not cold feet? Whether it's insurance, an owner stepping in, ect it doesn't matter. 

Yea it does. If San Fran signed him assuming the contract would be insured and suddenly it’s not - that’s a whole different equation. 

[Minderbinder]

Whatever it was didn't appear to bother Correa in September.

The Twins AAV was the highest.  I don't understand the attraction of a longer-term if both sides implicitly understand CC will never serve out that term.  From the union's standpoint, I would think AAV would be the more important number.

Ah well, time to move on.  CC staying was a nice dream, but it's time to work with what we have.

[Linus]

24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

A detail I haven't seen addressed (and my apologies if I missed it) is whether the Giants owe Correa any money at all.  Often when you reach agreement on a big ticket item, earnest money is put down and is at risk if the buyer pulls out. After all, they've taken the player off the market during a period of time that could matter, and what this cost Correa is at least debatable.

I’m not an expert but do have some experience in contractual matters. I’m guessing the deal isn’t complete without the physicals. Hence Correas ability to immediately sign with the Mets. 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, ashbury said:

A detail I haven't seen addressed (and my apologies if I missed it) is whether the Giants owe Correa any money at all.  Often when you reach agreement on a big ticket item, earnest money is put down and is at risk if the buyer pulls out. After all, they've taken the player off the market during a period of time that could matter, and what this cost Correa is at least debatable.

I have never heard of earnest money in professional sports. I’d have to think if it was a thing, I’d have come across it referenced at some point.

The Pohlads made their fortune ruthlessly foreclosing on poor farmers during the depression though. If there’s one thing they’re better at than Boras, it’s probably real estate maneuvers. They’d pay no earnest money but demand the player pay all the closing costs.

[Reds Kevin]

Kyle Farmer is an outstanding defensive shortstop and average offensive player. He is not Carlos Correra but the Twins should not be afraid to play him there. He is a baseball player not just an athlete.

[TNTwinsFan]

 "Now he's giving up $35 million from the first agreed-upon contract to settle for a lesser deal with New York, because – in Boras' own words – the Giants wanted to conduct more investigation on the second-largest contract in major-league history. "They advised us they still had questions," he said. "They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it."  Sounds like the Twins sang a similar tune, and that was also a deal-breaker."

I've been following the Twins for about years now. Been on TwinsDaily for over a decade. The amount of doubt and vitrol this front office receives for their decisions or seeming lack thereof really needs to be tempered. Its so easy to sit back and "arm chair quarterback" these decisions as if they are being made while playing the latest version of a MLB video game. You really think these guys are making multi-million dollar decisions on a whim?! You think they don't see at least what you see and more? Everyone makes mistakes, but wow, I'm tired of reading folks get on here and type thousands of words acting as if they know better. I've made some suggestIons abut who I'd like to see them sign, but, I know its not so easy. Just realize theres much more to the story than you might think.

[JYTwinsFan]

It's a very emotional thing for fans to evaluate these situations and we treat them as zero sum games as if Correa is either a perennial All Star or one day he vaporizes walking down the street ceasing to exist and rendering the contract a complete failure. I would guess that since these 30 teams are businesses each worth $1 - $6 billion that they are quite scientific in how they evaluate and manage their risk. Certainly an insurer is VERY scientific in managing their risk. A 1 year vs. 3 year vs. 10 year vs. 13 year contract at different AAVs, total values, and medical ailments ...when combined all carry varying degrees of total risk that they can quantify pretty well. At some point, whatever actuarial process they use, the calculation tips from being in your favor (for fun let's say 10 years @ $285mil was 51% in your favor) to being not in your favor (let's say 12 years at $315mil was only 49% in your favor). Each team has their own threshold and gut, but any sophisticated business these days understands the Sunk Cost Fallacy or in poker terms the err of being Pot Committed. So yes with every incremental change in the variables, the risk calculation changes. The total risk for the Twins in 2022 with a 1-3 year contract given their knowledge of the medical history may have been pretty low. I highly doubt "they missed something" or "they are being cheap" as they negotiated in this offseason. My guess is that for any of the 30 teams, but definitely what we are seeing with the Giants and the Twins, their data is clearly telling them that they are on the losing side of the risk if they go above X. I would also guess that when they are weighing "risk" it is not just the risk of Correa being good or hurt. It is a holistic evaluation of risk that includes all of the potential variables that lead to a) a winning team, and b) a profitable business over some period of relatively predictable time. Anyway, I think it is far less emotional inside their board rooms than we think it is.

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

My belief is the Twins were never seriously considering signing Carlos Correa. 

The rest is smokescreen.  There is zero possibility his ankle had anything to do with their decision. What possible new information would there be? They knew about Correa's 2014 ankle injury LAST year. You're telling me legitimately thought 10 years and $285m was OK last week, but NOW they needed "due diligence?" 

The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. There are reports saying that he was telling people on Monday that he was heading back to Minnesota, but then the Giants blew the other offers away. That's when there was an agreement... pending a physical. 

That's where the Twins were. If he would have accepted the Twins offer, it would also have been pending a physical. Now, who knows what the Twins doctors would have seen or found in the physical. 

But after the Giants brought up concerns, then the Twins absolutely would have needed to re-evaluate where they were at, and it would be crazy to increase how much you would pay a guy when there are question marks. 

And, as others have said... Boras being in a rush to get him signed would make me really nervous too. 

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, TNTwinsFan said:

 Everyone makes mistakes, but wow, I'm tired of reading folks get on here and type thousands of words acting as if they know better. I've made some suggestIons abut who I'd like to see them sign, but, I know it’s not so easy. Just realize theres much more to the story than you might think.

I certainly don’t know better but as large as it was, what I, everyone on this site, the entire MLB community and Scott Boras knew, was that Carlos Correa was never accepting a 285M deal.

What I’d like, is for the Twins to be up front, tell us fans that they aren’t signing free agent x and that they are focusing on internal options or whatnot. I can not speak for others, but the charade of making offers they know the player won’t accept is the bothersome issue.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I have never heard of earnest money in professional sports. I’d have to think if it was a thing, I’d have come across it referenced at some point.

The buyers and sellers all know each other better than is the case in the residential real estate market. I just got done in a different post warning against using our own experiences as a guide to 9-figure deals in a sport, and yet there I go. 

It just feels like there is scope for shenanigans when taking a player off the market for a week or so during a prime time-period of the off-season. Maybe there's no irreparable harm done in this case, where actual loss is realized by Correa, as he still landed on his feet.  I'm just a little surprised there aren't more safeguards against frivolous use of medical reports to say  "oh, well that's very different then. Never mind."

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. 

Seth, I really need this explained. When he declined the option years, Correa called himself top end designer clothing  and said the Twins had to pony up if they wanted to keep him. Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor already had deals that dwarfed 285M and everyone in the baseball world took Correa’s comments to mean he wanted a similar, if not larger deal. Why were theTwins the only entity that thought they could sign him for that much less?

It doesn’t add up.

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. 

I absolutely don't believe that.

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

10 for 285M was never getting this done and the Twins had to know that. He wasn’t going to do a deal less than, Seager, Lindor and Turner. Correa and Boras would probably have rather done another 1-year, make-good deal.

But why wouldn’t the Twins know all about Correa’s medicals? They signed him last year. Did this uber conservative team just say screw it, we’ll do this potential 100M contract ?  Because if there WAS something off with him, that would put the two 35M option years in a different light. Doubtful; they should have known all there was to know already, and more so than any other team. They needed no more time to vet this.

But what really gets me is why is this coming from The Athletic?!? Where are OUR reporters? Doogie just did an interview with Falvey and Correa’s name never came up once. How the hell is that journalism?!?

Still the highest AAV he was offered........ I guess he doesn't belive in himself enough to think he would be worth it then for the next two years as a free agent.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seth, I really need this explained. When he declined the option years, Correa called himself top end designer clothing  and said the Twins had to pony up if they wanted to keep him. Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor already had deals that dwarfed 285M and everyone in the baseball world took Correa’s comments to mean he wanted a similar, if not larger deal. Why were theTwins the only entity that thought they could sign him for that much less?

It doesn’t add up.

This. 100% this. Let's not pretend they've signed more than one big time deal for more than one year, and they traded that guy after two years. 

There was zero chance he takes that offer. Just like Darvish a few years ago. 

[twinssporto]

Any update on Joey Gallo's physical???? Maybe we can use that as an escape clause...:) 

[Fat Calvin]

Good for the Twins.  We're no second fiddle.  Let's take a deep breath, and calmly plan the next move.

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

1 hour ago, twinssporto said:

Any update on Joey Gallo's physical???? Maybe we can use that as an escape clause...:) 

Dare to dream, twinssporto. Dare to dream, my friend. If only the Twins could be so lucky. 

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, h2oface said:

I guess the Twins' crack staff missed whatever it was last year. Interesting.

There are many medical things that are not as black and white as you think. The biggest one is timetable for things happening or deteriorating. It may be a matter of opinion. It may be something that has happened over the last year.  But feel free to tell us what the Twins staff missed

[kenneth frank]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean, let's be honest, you're evaluating through a different lens when you're talking about a 3-year deal vs. a 13-year-deal. 

I would think they had the entire season to evaluate, and it seems to me during the 2022 season this ankle (if that's the issue) did cause some extreme discomfort when he hit balls off it and the Twins said they weren't concerned going forward. With that said I do agree with them that they did not pursue this contract any further. It's seems like being pressured into buying a used car.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

41 million was spent by the Twins shortly after the Giants deal with Correa was announced and before the Correa deal with the Giants fell apart. 

Making assumptions like everyone else. I assume budgeting is a part of the process. Is it possible that the landscape had changed in between these two amazing San Francisco events?

 

Good point, but the Twins had to have a decent catcher, whether they signed Correa or not. 30 million for 3 years was most reasonable for a good catcher. Twins probably would not have signed Gallo if they had signed Correa, I'll agree to that. But if true, then we are back to the debate of why sign Gallo under any circumstances? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"So there you have it. I'm not sure anyone can hold the Twins front office at fault in this situation, given that they merely appear to have been doing their due diligence."

He would've undergone a physical last year in MN. The article mentions that the Twins had "a solid understanding of Correa’s medical history, having just employed him," and that the leg injury he suffered in the minors has never caused him to miss time in 8 ML seasons. The Mets were also a team that passed on Paddack last year due to medical concerns, but now the Twins being outbid by the Mets is "due diligence?" That's a fairly massive spin job. 

I'm gonna call BS on the idea that the Twins were eager and/or willing to jump back in and spend the money it would've taken to sign Correa. Why would Boras wait on a team that was still $30M short, and had zero intention of even getting to $300M?  How many other teams were actually in on Correa, and of them, how many had enough room in their budget to throw a better offer at him than NY? Isn't MN's unwillingness to spend, and NY's enthusiasm to do so a much more plausible explanation than some mysterious malady which hasn't affected Correa in nearly a decade, and was completely off the Twins radar during both their own physical and the entirety of the year he played for the organization? 

Maybe the Twins has some reason to doubt Boras. Plus suspiciously Boras seemed to be in a huge hurry. Probably the Twins did not want to sign Correa without confirming why the Giants backed out, so the Twins could make an informed decision. It's called due diligence. Maybe the Twins felt that Correa would not want to move to 3B in New York, and that Correa enjoyed being the acknowledged team leader in Minnesota at SS. Who the hell knows. I'm not sure even Correa knows what happened.

[RJA]

8 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. There are reports saying that he was telling people on Monday that he was heading back to Minnesota, but then the Giants blew the other offers away. That's when there was an agreement... pending a physical. 

That's where the Twins were. If he would have accepted the Twins offer, it would also have been pending a physical. Now, who knows what the Twins doctors would have seen or found in the physical. 

But after the Giants brought up concerns, then the Twins absolutely would have needed to re-evaluate where they were at, and it would be crazy to increase how much you would pay a guy when there are question marks. 

And, as others have said... Boras being in a rush to get him signed would make me really nervous too. 

I think it is fair to say that TD folks will never have a kumbaya moment where we all agree on exactly what happened and whether the Twins really did all they could to get a deal done, the first time or the second time.  I agree we should move on.  Seth, I think we need some more of your minor league interviews--they always leave me smiling and remembering how great the game is and how many kids work so hard to get to the bigs.  They are truly what baseball is about, and part of the reason that I am increasingly attracted to minor league ball as a fan and a spectator.