Again? The Twins Lose Carlos Correa to the Mets.

[John Bonnes]

In a nearly unheard of reversal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post is reporting that the Carlos Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315M contract with the Mets, after his 13-year, $350M deal with the Giants fell through.

 

The middle-of-the-night deal was struck after an unknown medical concern caused the Giants to postpone their scheduled press conference to introduce the superstar shortstop. The new deal is one-year and $35M short of the deal that was in place with San Francisco.

It is also $30M and two years more than the Minnesota Twins final offer to Carlos Correa last week, which was for 10 years and $285M. Mets owner Steve Cohen revealed that last week the Mets made an offer last week of $300M, but talks with the Giants had already advanced, so that offer was rejected. 

The Mets had not been identified as a suitor for Correa’s services throughout most of his time on the free agent market, mostly because they are currently paying fellow superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor $341M to man the position. But last week, Lindor publicly welcomed the pursuit of Correa. It is not clear which player will play where in the infield. 

There were never any reports of the Twins exceeding $300M of guaranteed money in any of their offers to Correa. However, the new amount that Correa excepted is seemingly much closer to the level the Twins were willing to pay. Adding $15M per year over two years (perhaps on a player option?) for Correa when he would be 38 and 39 years old is still a significant risk. But by 2033 and 2034, even the Twins' payroll could be well north of $200M given MLB’s rising salaries. It might have been risky, maybe even silly, but $15M of dead money for those two years should not have been crippling to a franchise. 

Whether the Twins decided not to take that risk, or whether the Mets, Correa and agent Scott Boras never game them that chance, is unknown. 

How much “risk” the contract represents to the mega-rich Mets are taking is certainly debatable. What is not debatable is just how much it is going to cost them, and it far exceeds the value of the contract. Next year, the Mets will also need to pay a 90% “tax” on the average annual value (AAV) of the deal because they are over the highest threshold of MLB’s luxury tax level for the second year in a row. 

That means that while the Mets are paying Correa and AAV of $26.25M ($315M/12 years) they have to contribute another $23.625M to be distributed to other MLB clubs. That means their true cost is almost $50M per year for Correa, and will be for as many years as their payroll exceeds that luxury tax threshold. 

That illustrates the difference the Twins (and all mid-market team) are having competing for top-end free agents compared to large-market (or in this case, deep-pocket) owners. While the Twins offer wasn't so much less than the Mets winning bid, Correas was worth twice as much to the Mets. Enough, in fact to overcome the severe luxury tax penalty imposed by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. 

In reality, things haven't change much for the Twins since their situation 48 hours ago. They still are sitting with $30-40M worth of payroll room, but also with a free agent market devoid of top-end talent. But what looked like an unforeseen gift - similar to Correa falling into their laps last offseason - now looks like just another lost opportunity.  

 

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[Brandon27]

Watch he backs out of the Mets deal goes somewhere else. But overall mlb needs a salary cap 

[Chachi]

The Mets are an entire Twins payroll over the luxury threshold?

[mikelink45]

After all these years NY is finally getting some revenge for the Giants transfer to SF.  Not sure they really won this one.

[LewFordLives]

We don't know the cash flows, but the present values of the Mets deal and Twins offer are essentially a wash when you're talking about that much money. I wonder if they circled back to the Twins, or maybe he had his heart set on NY all along.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

We don't know the cash flows, but the present values of the Mets deal and Twins offer are essentially a wash when you're talking about that much money. I wonder if they circled back to the Twins, or maybe he had his heart set on NY all along.

I'd guess they were quite positive that the Twins weren't going above the 285 and once Cohen called Boras there was no talking to any other teams. 

[wavedog]

I guess we know the Twins weren't even the 2nd choice now.    Wonder if they reached out to the Twins or not.  Looks like he will be playing 3B now as well with Lindor at short

[old nurse]

We now can be certain that the Pohlads should have offered to build a Dior store.  They might have even made their money back

[Nashvilletwin]

Baseball is broken. This is a horrible signing for the future of the league - particularly if the Mets, or any other of the dwindling number of franchises that can compete in this “arms race”, wins the Pennant or WS.

This portends even greater loss of interest in professional baseball outside of a few major franchises. For the current and future fans of most of the MLB’s teams, there is very little reason to commit the time and money over years and years to a futile dream. Better just wait to jump on the bandwagon for that one season, if it ever comes, when lightning strikes and the team truly competes.

As I have said in many of my posts, I am a “super fan” watching over 150 Twins games each year. Not this year. I have really no interest in prioritising my summer days and nights to watch our current team in this current MLB environment. My love of the game only goes so far.  Assuming I reup for the MLB package this season, maybe I’ll tune in more often later in the season when our prospects show up.

This is how this super fan feels. It’s not just the CC signing. It’s the direction of MLB and the direction of the Twins within that dynamic. Imagine how the less committed fans will feel over time. For many franchises, the Twins most certainly included, baseball fandom will become primarily a bandwagon phenomenon. 

[Dman]

Boy was I wrong.  I thought the Giants would keep Correa for sure.  Can't believe the Mets got it done essentially paying 52M per year for Correa. That is going to be one tough team I can see why Correa wanted to go there.  The Mets will need to keep those arms healthy and they have some older arms but if they do they look World Series bound to me.

[awmonahan]

This further illustrates just how stupid the FO's "off-season plan" truly was. 

[Doctor Gast]

When the Mets were rumored to be in on Correa, I texted that they were our greatest rival. Because they had the money & they had best chance of advancing to the WS. After SF signed Correa, I admitted that I was wrong.

I know that they have Lindor, the other teams that bid on "the top 4" had pretty good SSs (except MN) but they still went out to try to nab one. NYM will do anything to buy a WS.

Now is the perfect opportunity to trade for Luis Guillorme NYM) as our main SS. Platooned with Farmer they could be an awesome duo, plus adding immensely to our INF quality lacking  depth. NYM should be motivated to move him especially because this news, He should come very cheap. 

Guillorme is a SS profiled utility player. A slick glove, strong arm with good instincts. He's a Arraez type hitter that when given the chance to bat regularly, he can put up some pretty good  offensive #s. There is no doubt in my mind if given the opportunity to play at SS on a regular basis he can shine. This could be our best move of the offseason. FO jump on this one!!!!!

 

[KirbyDome89]

Weren't the Mets the same team that passed on Paddock because of his medical report? Either they view the Correa issue totally different than SF (not impossible,) they're desperate for that "final piece," to get them over the hump, or maybe SF actually got cold feet. Either way it's pretty wild. What was your favorite CC Giants moment?

[theBOMisthebomb]

This is the slap in the face after last week's kick in the crotch. MLB really has to change things on the payroll issue, it's been out of whack for years. Now it's just wacky unbalanced and out of control. 

[Steve71]

 

I will simply refer readers to the "Baseball Remains Broken" thread on the Other Baseball folder.

Cohen does not give a rip about luxury taxes, which establishes convincingly that a luxury tax does absolutely nothing to promote parity in MLB.

Correa's latest move shows he was interested in both Dior money combined with a big market and a championship-caliber team.  Minnesota is none of those, and likely never will be with the way MLB runs its business.

If this latest move doesn't make it hard to root for a small or mid-market team, I am not sure what does.  Payroll for the Mets plus taxes now almost $400M.  We have teams around $50M.  How can that possibly compute?

MLB needs its Pete Rozelle.

[umterp23]

Twins didn't lose out to Correa again per the title of this article.  Correa and Boras had a plan that didn't involve the Twins this year or any future year.  Twins aren't WS contenders and Correa wants more ring opportunities and a really big contract to boot.  Twins can't provide the complete package.  Correa said all the right things about the Twins to leave on a warm and fuzzy feeling.  

Twins on the other hand really needed to move on from Correa sooner than later and be "aggressive" in the market.  Twins and FA spending aggressive can always be debated.  

Mets have an aggressive owner who will spend no matter what and doesn't give a you know what about luxury tax, truly means nothing to the ownership group.  They are 2nd fiddle to the Yankees and now they want to buy their way to being top dog in the Big Apple.  

Good for them and Correa, the move is comical and just shows how broken MLB system is.  Big dogs will almost always be big dogs and on occasion the lower end markets will catch lightning in a bottle and give the big F.U. to the big spenders at year end.

Happy Holidays and my Xmas wish is now please move on from Correa articles.

[brockbesler]

So the main focus of this off-season was to resign Correa and they get a second chance and still don’t get it done? The front office could have redeemed themselves and got the fans somewhat back on their side. With that said, it does seem like he wanted to go to NY so it might not have mattered if the Twins upped their offer at all.

[Nashvilletwin]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

When the Mets were rumored to be in on Correa, I texted that they were our greatest rival. Because they had the money & they had best chance of advancing to the WS. After SF signed Correa, I admitted that I was wrong.

I know that they have Lindor, the other teams that bid on "the top 4" had pretty good SSs (except MN) but they still went out to try to nab one. NYM will do anything to buy a WS.

Now is the perfect opportunity to trade for Luis Guillorme NYM) as our main SS. Platooned with Farmer they could be an awesome duo, plus adding immensely to our INF quality lacking  depth. NYM should be motivated to move him especially because this news, He should come very cheap. 

Guillorme is a SS profiled utility player. A slick glove, strong arm with good instincts. He's a Arraez type hitter that when given the chance to bat regularly, he can put up some pretty good  offensive #s. There is no doubt in my mind if given the opportunity to play at SS on a regular basis he can shine. This could be our best move of the offseason. FO jump on this one!!!!!

 

Whom would you move - someone in whom the Mets might realistically have an interest - to effect this trade for this budding utility infielder?

[Steve71]

Ran some numbers.  The individual income tax rate differential between New York state and Minnesota is only 1%, but NYC itself has a city income tax that is almost 4% for top bracket.  Crunch the numbers, and the tax differential alone eats up over $15M of the Mets' contract with Correa.

Let's face it, he did not want to come here, he wanted a big market highly competitive team....along with the generational money of course.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Brandon27 said:

Watch he backs out of the Mets deal goes somewhere else. But overall mlb needs a salary cap 

No, that wouldn’t solve the problem. How does this change what the Mets have done this season? It doesn’t.

[wsnydes]

It's like deja vu all over again!

[MGM4706]

Shows Boras has no respect for our Front Office whiz Kids if in fact he didn't give them a 2nd chance 

[Trov]

The deal with the Mets still pending their physical.  This was a crazy situation.  The day that SF was set to announcing the signing it gets postponed, only to have over the night Mets swoop in.  It makes me wonder how everything went.  Did Borras reach out to Mets, did Mets reach out to him?  Did Borras reach out to Twins, did Twins try to reach out?  

Personally, knowing what is talked about Borras, he most likely reached out to Mets and not the Twins.  Borras has dealt with injured guys before and he always downplays things.  I am surprised SF found something that Twins would not have known about, and they were willing to give 10 years.  

The Twins if offered a chance could have matched the Mets number for sure, the question is where they given that chance and declined.  I for one would not have been happy to see Twins swoop in like Mets did, unless the Giants gave the okay.  Maybe they did give the okay.  I am sure more will come out in next day or two. 

[rv78]

In order to lose out on Correa "AGAIN", you have to be "IN" in the first place. They never were and still aren't.

[Squirrel]

17 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Ran some numbers.  The individual income tax rate differential between New York state and Minnesota is only 1%, but NYC itself has a city income tax that is almost 4% for top bracket.  Crunch the numbers, and the tax differential alone eats up over $15M of the Mets' contract with Correa.

Let's face it, he did not want to come here, he wanted a big market highly competitive team....along with the generational money of course.

Again, the taxes have NOTHING to do with it. Absolutely nothing.

[Squirrel]

5 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Shows Boras has no respect for our Front Office whiz Kids if in fact he didn't give them a 2nd chance 

How do you know they weren’t given a second chance? They could have said their last offer was it, or they could have still not had the highest money.

[mikelink45]

What this really shows is that when it comes to Boras and negotiations he needs teams like the Twins to push the bids up for the teams that can really afford the contracts.  We were played, we have all these almosts from Yu Darvish on through Correa.  What is the lesson?  I am not sure I know.  But if we are serious, stay out until the last minute, then swoop in or just avoid the Boras game altogether. 

[RJA]

We will never know what happened for sure, but my guess is that Boras checked back with the Twins after the SF deal fell through or he was told by the Twins that their last offer was truly as far as they would go.   He is too good of an agent not to explore all options. I understand everyone’s frustration with big market teams, but this deal could have been done by the Twins. It is clear that they are never going to be serious players in free agency, so I am beginning to see some advantage to a rebuild. If you can trade your best current players for top flight prospects, especially pitchers, or trade short term guys like Mahle, Gray and Maeda at the deadline for prospects, it might be possible to establish a nucleus for the next 5 years. Bitter pill I know. But maybe something to think about given the young guys we already have—and Buck!  

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

How do you know they weren’t given a second chance? They could have said their last offer was it, or they could have still not had the highest money.

Yeah I think most likely the Twins said last offer was it.  I think they felt plenty uncomfortable offering that contract and with some new medical concerns I doubt they were willing to go higher.  At any rate even if they had moved to 300M Cohen would have just upped the anti IMO.  From what I have read he is a pretty persuasive guy and willing to put his money where his mouth is.  The Mets will be in it every year and Correa just a cog there.  If he went with the Twins likely a lot of losing in his future and very limited opportunities to be on the big stage for the world series.  Seems like a no brainer to go to the Mets even if the contracts were equal to me.  Even if the Twins paid more he might have gone to the Mets All Star team as the game is a lot more fun when you are winning.

[tony&rodney]

Several things seem to have been crystalized by this latest development:

1. The recent CBA was entirely run by the large market teams and the PA.

2. Manfred's claims of "no money in MLB" was a farce.

3. The Twins were the only team willing to sign Correa last year, which is strange.

4. Carlos Correa never had any serious intentions of returning to play for Minnesota.

5. Cohen and the NY Mets are going to be formidable foes for the NY Yankees.

I'll save you the time and effort wasted to read a detailed explanation of each of the above, but suffice it to say that the end result is not a good look for MLB.

While I was hopeful, yet extremely skeptical from the start, of the Twins signing Correa the Giants signing made some sense. This makes no sense to me.