How The Twins May Have Contributed To Jorge López's No Good Very Bad Stretch

[Parker Hageman]

Jorge López's half-season with the Twins has people wondering if the team was hustled like some easy-mark Stanford grad on a Sicilian vacation. 

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

With the Orioles, Jorge López was a dominant backend of the bullpen arm, outfitted with an upper 90s sinker and wiffleball movement at the top of the zone. He had some intriguing offspeed stuff, was missing bats, and locking down games. 

The Twins may have thought they could take a pitcher right near the cusp of being elite and make him that much better. However, that initial experiment has backfired. 

What happened?

Pick any stat you want from López and it was likely substantially worse with the Twins. 

Strikeouts? Down — from 28% with Baltimore to 16% with the Twins. Walk rate? Up — from 9% to 15%. Batting average allowed? Up — it was a clean 174 with Baltimore and grew to a grotesque 314 with the Twins. Hard hit balls? Up — exit velocity of balls over 95 mph went from 30% to 44%.

Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse tweeted on September 20 that López "was tremendous and always had excellent stuff… Finally harvested in the bullpen. Twins were dazzled by his 97 mph sinker and proceeded to turn him into a guy constantly behind in the count throwing breaking balls." 

The reality is the Twins kept him consistent in his sinker usage.

"There's been suggestions that we have him throwing more offspeed pitches than in Baltimore," Falvey later refuted to Reusse. "That's not true. He's still throwing a lot of fastballs and with the same velocity."

Which was an accurate statement but also… misleading. 

True, if you look at the overall pitch data of his sinker/two-seam fastball usage (50.3% in Baltimore and 50.9% with the Twins), they are basically the same. It is also true that López maintained that same crisp velocity in both uniforms (97.8 in Baltimore, 97.4 with the Twins). And finally, López threw more pitches while ahead in the count with the Twins than he did with the Orioles (so, no, he wasn’t “constantly behind in the count”). 

Falvey's narrative holds up as long as you only look as far as the total pitch type percentage and velocity. Consider two-strike counts. López used his sinker less frequently with the Twins — it went down from 47% to 40%. Equally as important was how he was using it. Watch this video.

We have arrived at the point of the analysis where I post heat maps, charts, and video clips to support the trends and tendencies outlined above. I have done that and more but that content is reserved for Twins Daily Caretaker’s eyes only. 

Fear not: You too can become a Caretaker for as low as $4/month. In addition to getting to read the rest of the meaty López post, you also get free Twins Daily publications, Winter Meltdown tickets (WHICH ARE GOING EXTREMELY FAST) and other special recognition. 

Finally, if you do jump into the TD Caretaker pool and read the rest of this article and are not completely satisfied, you can totally call me out publicly on Twitter – @HagemanParker.

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[Doctor Gast]

I enjoyed your article Parker. Stats don't always tell the true story, they can be manipulated. How & when a pitch is thrown, can make a lot of difference. If something isn't broken, don't fix it.

[wabene]

stai implorando il bacio della morte? Lol

[terrydactyls]

Another unapologetic effort to sell the Caretaker plan.  It's like being asked over for drinks and finding yourself at an Amway recruiting session.  Nice tease though.  I thought I might learn something.

[Parker Hageman]

14 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Another unapologetic effort to sell the Caretaker plan.  It's like being asked over for drinks and finding yourself at an Amway recruiting session.  Nice tease though.  I thought I might learn something.

 

[h2oface]

Don't need any more info. The stats presented tells me what I need to know. My bet is that Lopez was a half season wonder, and we are screwed. His performance didn't lie. He was terrible since he got here. 47% to 40%? Not even one pitch in 10. A real game changer?

But on the other hand, what is it that turns a Colome and Pagan and Russell (as a short sample)..... and Lopez into a horror once they get here? It is perplexing for the FO and the fans. Syndergaard goes where he thinks he can be helped to be the best he can be.......

https://www.mlb.com/news/noah-syndergaard-dodgers-deal?partnerId=zh-20221220-786751-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20221220-786751-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=f0KU%2FIFWhivGOoDB04JUUUlQfZOMitPNuLuMetK7yHEv1bg2VkeU%2FIyEnY0Qeozm&bt_ts=1671547977105

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Another unapologetic effort to sell the Caretaker plan.  It's like being asked over for drinks and finding yourself at an Amway recruiting session.  Nice tease though.  I thought I might learn something.

Heaven forbid these guys try to make money. You want information, pay for it. 

[Reptevia]

If I would have known it was a spam call, I would have sent it to voicemail. 

[Parker Hageman]

42 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Don't need any more info. The stats presented tells me what I need to know. My bet is that Lopez was a half season wonder, and we are screwed. His performance didn't lie. He was terrible since he got here. 47% to 40%? Not even one pitch in 10. A real game changer?

If that were true, this would be the entire article. 

I'll tell you what, sign up and read the entire post. It's $6 -- one domestic beer at an expensive joint. If you don't feel like you got anything out of it, I'll have @Brock Beauchamp refund you the Caretaker fee. 

If you do enjoy it, come back here and let us know. And you can read a couple more of the Caretaker posts before the end of the month, 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Another unapologetic effort to sell the Caretaker plan.  It's like being asked over for drinks and finding yourself at an Amway recruiting session.  Nice tease though.  I thought I might learn something.

You’re absolutely right about the unapologetic part. Parker and Trueblood spend a ton of time researching and writing these pieces and deserve compensation for their effort. 

[Twodogs]

ARod and Tom Brady were judging their new girlfriends and dozens of other very good looking women in a spur of the moment bikini contest.  I have all of the photos, but in order for you to see them you must pay the caretaker fee.  

??????

 

I couldn't resist.  I'm just joking, I don't mind the caretaker fee.  But when I see something I can make fun of, I just can't stop myself.  

[Steer53]

So why does any team have a pitching coach?  If we had a good one, maybe the staff the Twins have accumulated could get the job done.  Save a few million on a couple of retreads and get a major league pitching coach with experience.  Frank Viola, who knows pitching comes to mind.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You’re absolutely right about the unapologetic part. Parker and Trueblood spend a ton of time researching and writing these pieces and deserve compensation for their effort. 

Isn't that what all the pop-up ads are for?

[specialiststeve]

Most important aquisition this offseason may well be a qualified and competant pitching coach... The coaching last year was a complete disaster. Twins used to pride themselves on thier quality of fundamentals .. including defense, baserunning and pitching..... they are not good in any of these areas at this time.. 

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Heaven forbid these guys try to make money. You want information, pay for it. 

I come here mainly to shoot the breeze. I don't make any money following the Twins.

[jdgoin]

11 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I enjoyed your article Parker. Stats don't always tell the true story, they can be manipulated. How & when a pitch is thrown, can make a lot of difference. If something isn't broken, don't fix it.

I am trying to understand what you mean by stats don’t tell the whole story in this case?

[Strombomb]

@Brock Beauchamp

As a Caretaker, I ask you: How do I see the rest of the article? 

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, jdgoin said:

I am trying to understand what you mean by stats don’t tell the whole story in this case?

I'm sorry I should have quoted Parker.

"

On 12/20/2022 at 8:00 AM, Parker Hageman said:

"There's been suggestions that we have him throwing more offspeed pitches than in Baltimore," Falvey later refuted to Reusse. "That's not true. He's still throwing a lot of fastballs and with the same velocity."

Which was an accurate statement but also… misleading. 

True, if you look at the overall pitch data of his sinker/two-seam fastball usage (50.3% in Baltimore and 50.9% with the Twins), they are basically the same. It is also true that López maintained that same crisp velocity in both uniforms (97.8 in Baltimore, 97.4 with the Twins). And finally, López threw more pitches while ahead in the count with the Twins than he did with the Orioles (so, no, he wasn’t “constantly behind in the count”). 

Falvey's narrative holds up as long as you only look as far as the total pitch type percentage and velocity. Consider two-strike counts. López used his sinker less frequently with the Twins — it went down from 47% to 40%. Equally as important was how he was using it. Watch this video.

Which qualifies my statement.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Strombomb said:

@Brock Beauchamp

As a Caretaker, I ask you: How do I see the rest of the article? 

Sorry, we’re going to figure out a better way to call that out in the future.

https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/caretakers/how-the-twins-may-have-contributed-to-jorge-lópezs-no-good-very-bad-stretch-exclusive-r13417/

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I come here mainly to shoot the breeze. I don't make any money following the Twins.

You coming here to shoot the breeze is definitely equivalent to me spending tens of thousands of hours over the past decade building out this platform and managing content.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You coming here to shoot the breeze is definitely equivalent to me spending tens of thousands of hours over the past decade building out this platform and managing content.

You are the one who decided to essentially go into the online newspaper business at a time of massive decline in that business. I don't pay for most online newspapers either. You can pay people to create in-depth content, but very few are paying for that elsewhere. People mostly just want a place to shoot the breeze with other fans. I'm not sure if people even read articles anymore, they just want to comment. For most Twins news you would be fine posting a headline and a paragraph long article.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

You are the one who decided to essentially go into the online newspaper business at a time of massive decline in that business. I don't pay for most online newspapers either. You can pay people to create in-depth content, but very few are paying for that elsewhere. People mostly just want a place to shoot the breeze with other fans. I'm not sure if people even read articles anymore, they just want to comment. For most Twins news you would be fine posting a headline and a paragraph long article.

I have mountains of data that contradict basically everything you’ve said here. Your personal experiences and preferences are not universal. 

[Strombomb]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You are the one who decided to essentially go into the online newspaper business at a time of massive decline in that business. I don't pay for most online newspapers either. You can pay people to create in-depth content, but very few are paying for that elsewhere. People mostly just want a place to shoot the breeze with other fans. I'm not sure if people even read articles anymore, they just want to comment. For most Twins news you would be fine posting a headline and a paragraph long article.

I enjoy the articles and this site is where I get my Twins news. I find many of the comments repetitive, offensive or annoying. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I have mountains of data that contradict basically everything you’ve said here. Your personal experiences and preferences are not universal. 

Then why are you whining about working so hard?

[Brock Beauchamp]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Then why are you whining about working so hard?

I’m not whining about anything, I was merely replying to your inane comment by pointing out that lots of people do lots of work so you have a place to shoot the breeze. 

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You are the one who decided to essentially go into the online newspaper business at a time of massive decline in that business. I don't pay for most online newspapers either. You can pay people to create in-depth content, but very few are paying for that elsewhere. People mostly just want a place to shoot the breeze with other fans. I'm not sure if people even read articles anymore, they just want to comment. For most Twins news you would be fine posting a headline and a paragraph long article.

If you don't want to buy the product ... Don't buy it but the owners of this site have the right to do whatever the hell they like with it.  Do you send emails to the Athletic complaining all of their content isn't free?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If you don't want to buy the product ... Don't buy it but the owners of this site have the right to do whatever the hell they like with it.  Do you send emails to the Athletic complaining all of their content isn't free?

Show me where I complained that this article isn't free.

FWIW - I've never read an article at the Athletic. If you put up a paywall I will find somewhere else to go.

[gman]

I think by looking at stats with the Twins vs stats with Balt and I think the stats lie. The first 3 months of the year(with Balt) he gave up 2 earned runs and 16 hits in 36 innings. Then in July, he gave up 14vhits and 6 earned runs in 11 innings while still with Balt. BUT, 6 hits and 4 earned runs were against the Twins in 1/3 of an inning over 2 games. The rest of the month he gave up 8 hits and 2 earned runs against everyone else.

While with the twins in August, he gave up 10 hits and 3 earned runs in 11 innings, about how he pitched the rest of the year against everyone. In Sept her gave up 13 hits and 8 earned runs in 9.2 innings. Again it was one team the Guardians who knocked him around for 7 hits and 6 earned runs in 1.2 innings.. His other innings he gave up 2 earned runs and 6 hits in 8 innings.

He was only hit by Cleveland, unfortunately they were critical  series. So for the whole year he did poorly in 3 series against 2 teams the Twins and Guardians. If he changed his pitch selection against the Guardians in the second series it may have been more an instance of pitch selection to specific batters, then some amazing mid year transition.

Finally his last 5 games of the year, he gave up 1 hit and 0 runs.  I know some people on this site try to hammer Twins front office and coaches every chance they get, but at least study the info instead of just looking for reason to cast aspersions.

[Parker Hageman]

On 12/22/2022 at 11:55 AM, gman said:

I think by looking at stats with the Twins vs stats with Balt and I think the stats lie...

I think this is a valid point and always something to consider when looking at relievers in their small sample sizes. But, his performance against almost all teams in the second half had worse metrics (more walks, fewer strikeouts) and you cannot ignore the differences in approach and pitch design between his Baltimore stint and his Twins stint. There was something deliberate about that. 

 

[h2oface]

On 12/20/2022 at 10:30 AM, Parker Hageman said:

If that were true, this would be the entire article. 

I'll tell you what, sign up and read the entire post. It's $6 -- one domestic beer at an expensive joint. If you don't feel like you got anything out of it, I'll have @Brock Beauchamp refund you the Caretaker fee. 

If you do enjoy it, come back here and let us know. And you can read a couple more of the Caretaker posts before the end of the month, 

Thanks for the offer. It is some of the mysterious unexplained censorship (comments that just disappear with no explaination or penalty or warning) that deters me from being a caretaker. I truly appreciate the offer and your love of your work and amazing detail to your analysis, even if I sometimes struggle to interpret your complex graphs etc.  as much as I try. Many things I enjoy most in life pay nothing but I invest much time and work for the love of it, and give much for free. It is always nice to get paid for it, too, but sometimes it also changes the motive and taints the whole process (ex: coaching/mentoring newer committed skydivers for free instead of being a paid staff of the drop zone to do the same thing).