What Can Nick Gordon Do for an Encore?

[Cody Christie]

Nick Gordon surprised many with his breakout performance in 2022. What can he provide the Twins in the upcoming season?

Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

 

Entering the 2022 season, expectations were low for Nick Gordon and what he could provide the Twins. The former top-five draft pick spent much of the last decade considered one of the organization's top prospects. He was on national top 100 lists from 2015-2018 and reached Triple-A as a 22-year-old. In 2019, injuries limited Gordon to 70 games, but he posted a .801 OPS to offer some hope for the future. 

Gordon likely should have made his big-league debut during the 2020 season, but he tested positive for COVID and missed time. He worked his way back and made his debut during the 2021 season. In 73 games, he hit .240/.292/.355 (.647) with nine doubles and four home runs. As a 25-year-old, the team likely considered removing him from the 40-man roster. Luckily, the Twins' front office showed faith in the former top prospect, and he rewarded that faith with a breakout 2022 season. 

Entering last season, Gordon figured to fit into a utility role with the potential to play multiple infield positions and even some outfield. Injuries forced many Twins players to take on new roles, and Gordon played the second most games on the team. He started more games in left field than any other Twins player and played 36 games or more at three different positions. Gordon's defensive versatility wasn't the only trait keeping him in the line-up. Many evaluators touted his offensive promise as a prospect, and he found his swing at the big-league level.

Offense was down across baseball, but Gordon showed skills at getting on base and hitting for power. In 138 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 28 doubles, four triples, nine home runs, and a 113 OPS+. Some of those numbers can be fluky, but some of his underlying totals also pointed to a breakout. He ranked in the 74th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard hit %, and xSLG. It was also his first season seeing significant time in the outfield, and he finished in the top 5 among AL left fielders in SABR's Defensive Index. Twins Daily named him the team's most improved player at the season's end. 

Gordon proved his value last season, but it's hard to see where he fits into the team's plans for 2023. Last week, the Twins signed Joey Gallo, a left-handed hitter who plays corner outfielder like Gordon. Even before adding Gallo, Minnesota's corner outfield depth chart is already packed with players like Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, and Mark Contreras. It seems likely for the Twins to trade at least one player in this group, but Gordon isn't likely to start regularly over many of these names. 

The biggest elephant in the room is not knowing how many injuries will impact the 2023 Twins. Gordon's path to regular playing time last season was injuries to multiple key contributors. FanGraphs' ZiPS projections estimate Gordon to get 400 plate appearances while hitting .258/.304/.416 (.720) with a 100 OPS+ and a 0.7 WAR. Baseball-Reference projects him to get 443 plate appearances and post a .720 OPS with 37 extra-base hits. Every projection model will predict regression for Gordon, but these totals would point to him continuing to be a solid contributor with semi-regular playing time. 

At this point last winter, no one would have projected that Gordon would provide more WAR than Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez, and Alex Kirilloff. The team didn't expect him to have a regular role, but he thrived in a regular role. Now, it's time to see what Gordon can do for an encore. 

What can fans expect from Gordon in 2023? Can he reach another level of success, or have we already seen the best he has to offer? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[sdtwins37]

Gordon, Kepler, and Polanco get us any decent pitching in a trade? Or does Polanco’s trade value better next season at deadline?

[roger]

Can't imagine he will have a better season than last.  Wasn't that a pleasant surprise?

I see him returning to a super utility role, only that he will play more in the infield than outfield.  At least during the first half of the season before Lewis is ready to take over at short.

 

[Trov]

I personally expect him to do better than last year, if he is given a real shot.  If you look at his history at every level of minors, he would take a long time to adjust to the league, but when he did he kept showing why he was regarded as a top prospect.  Each time he moved up he would struggle, and people would say, yup he is a bust.  Then the next year he would be back on path.  Not only did he miss time for COVID, he missed time because he had other medical issues, that he reports he now can actually put on muscle, something he was having issues with.  As long as the team does not bury him on depth chart, I expect him to be better than last year. 

[Devilsadvocate]

I have a fair amount of confidence in Nick G. Dude was one of the better players on the team for much of the second half and didn't suck at any point when he got consistent playing time. Sure, he can't hit lefties but he's improved a great deal over the last few years. 

[Doctor Gast]

I didn't have much faith in Gordon in the INF. So back in 2020, if he had made it to the MLB, I think he would have been a wash & out of the Twins. But what seemed to be a set back, turned to be an opportunity in '21 where was given an a chance in the OF where he showed prominence. The root word for crisis in Chinese is opportunity.

In the OF I had faith in him & believed he could improve in '22, he surpass my expectations. '23 I believe he'll continue to improve and make us proud if he's given the opportunity. That is problem, with Larnach & Kiriloff coming back healthy and signing of Gallo together with Kepler. That makes 5 corner OF lefty bats competing for 2 open positions. Gordon is Buxton's primary lefty bat sub, which we need him sharp by playing him as much as possible and makes the Gallo signing all that more idiotic

[Battle ur tail off]

What can he do for an encore?

Play SS and hold it down until Lewis is ready? LOL, not sure if this has been a thought or if he can handle this, but if the kid can hit and bring the same level of play he did last year, I feel like this isn't a terrible option. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like after last year, there is a chance we are just scratching the surface of what he is capable of being. He was a 5th overall pick after all...

 

 

[Chachi]

Thankfully there is enough room on the internet to highlight a positive development for the Twins!  Thank you - 

Gordon seems to be disproportionately around when good things happened for the Twins last year.  He is fun to watch play ball and his recent trajectory as a ‘gamer’ is compelling as his role solidifies or even expands.  Easy guy to root for considering his pedigree and the adversity he ultimately needed to endure to arrive.  Much respect for Go-Go-Gordon!  

[tony&rodney]

Gordon should get close to 500 plate appearances. I can't think of another Twins corner outfielder who deserves more.

[chpettit19]

I think Gordon settles in as the super-utility player for the Twins moving forward. Getting nearly a starter's workload (assuming his own health) by bouncing between 4 or 5 spots (3 OF spots, and 2B/SS). That's a really nice development from how things were looking with him a few years ago. I don't think he gets significantly better, and thus isn't a guy I'd want penned in as "the guy" at any position, but he can provide a great deal of value by being the super-utility guy on a competitive team.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree. Gordon's performance last year should have him penciled in as the Twins starting LF. He has performed. Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner and, to be honest, Kepler, have not. He should be given the chance to start against LH pitching to se if he can improve against same sided hurlers. He should be allowed to attempt more stolen bases. He should be (and I think is) the backup CF when Buxton can't play. 

In other word, Gordon should be treated like the most likely to succeed of our up and coming prospects. Why? Because he's earned it . Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner - they have not. We should trade Kepler, keep Kirilloff as part of a 1B/DH time share, and have Laranach and Wallner fight it out for the last roster spot and send the other to AAA. Play Gallo in RF and play Gordon in LF every day next year for as long as he performs. No scholarships - play the guys who earn the time.   

 

[Dman]

I think you can depend on Gordon for a mid 700 OPS. He has been right around those numbers most of his career and as he adjusted a tick better at times.  He is a solid defender at all outfield positions and a plus defender in left field.  Probably plus at 2nd base as well but he doesn't get much time there.  I was ready to trade him going in to last year but once truly healthy he had a really good year.  Hoping for more of the same as he is an important part of this team now.

[nicksaviking]

Just like with Arraez and Kepler, my Gordon opinion won't be popular, but I don't think what he did last year is going to end up being indicative of what he does for his career. His measly 4% walk rate and .340 BABiP would have me selling high.

[mikelink45]

I really enjoyed what he did last year. He ranked with Arraez and Miranda as a player to root for. I hope he is given a real chance. 

[se7799]

Hey Cody.  Nice article about one of my favorite players.  Also seams to be growing into a leadership role from my perspective.  I have to ask what you mean when you say his numbers from last year are "kinda fluky".  Dis he have unexceptional good luck or something I missed?  Thanks

[rwilfong86]

Preferably not commit so many horrible base running blunders and stop admiring his hits and hustle out of the box would be great start.

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Preferably not commit so many horrible base running blunders and stop admiring his hits and hustle out of the box would be great start.

Perhaps this is the Twins way though as pretty much everyone practiced it a few times.

[DocBauer]

What can he do for an encore?

How about just do what he did last year as a super utility player? I'd take a repeat 100%!

What might he be capable of?

1} A little higher OB% as he continues to adjust to the league and learns to lay off just a little more on the stuff he can't get to.

2} Experience and a little more "man muscle" to go along with his quick swing might see a slight uptick in his SLG%.

3} Don't over-slide bases so often so you can be a better threat as an actual basestealer.

Not sure he WILL do any of those last 3 things, but now that he's gained some experience and settled in, I see room for possible improvement as well.

[rwilfong86]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps this is the Twins way though as pretty much everyone practiced it a few times.

Yep he seemed to do it at the worst possible times though last season.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, rwilfong86 said:

Yep he seemed to do it at the worst possible times though last season.

He was never alone.

[Jham]

His development reminds me of Jorge Polanco and Kepler in that he developed power after scouts had essentially given up on them developing power. From an eye-test perspective he looks like he fits. He never appears intimidated and stays aggressive at the plate. Tries to do damage. His eye may need improvement, but the development of power is a major game changer for the guy. Defensive flexibility. Really good defensive outfielder. Huge pedigree. Excuses for slow development (illness not injury).... He's a sneaky one.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I really enjoyed what he did last year. He ranked with Arraez and Miranda as a player to root for. I hope he is given a real chance. 

That’s one of his challenges: a front office that doesn’t believe in him. I would give him a boatload of time at SS in spring training and see what happens. 

[h2oface]

This FO is very fond of constructing a team with very few players that actually have a position, leaving the team full of players like Gordon that have no home. Flexibility is one thing, but having the majority of the lineup constantly playing "out of position", or mediocre at all defensive positions because they aren't developed to have a home position is not in a teams best interest.

[old nurse]

What Gordon needs to do is learn how to play defense. DRS and UZR does not like him

[jorgenswest]

Encore? Play SS at an adequate level and be the strong side of the platoon with Farmer.

Is it feasible? Maybe. Assessments about his play at shortstop were made when he was dealing with a string of health issues that left him weak in the plate and the field.

[IA Bean Counter]

I didn’t think of it earlier, there is a possibility him and Farmer are a platoon at shortstop. It gives him more opportunities to play next year.  I am not sure his defense will hold up, but if he can play adequate defense at even shortstop he could be a very valuable asset down the road.  

[Rosterman]

We have to find positions and roles for players to play.

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Just like with Arraez and Kepler, my Gordon opinion won't be popular, but I don't think what he did last year is going to end up being indicative of what he does for his career. His measly 4% walk rate and .340 BABiP would have me selling high.

Makes a lot of sense if Martin can replace him but that has some risk.  If someone offers a good return, I think they should take it but they have a couple years to make that move.  On the other hand, Gordon and Martin together would be great together.  They could have a couple big bat corner guys on the bench and still be well-covered for every position.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

That’s one of his challenges: a front office that doesn’t believe in him. I would give him a boatload of time at SS in spring training and see what happens. 

The current FO had no obligation to him. But they kept him on the 40 man pretty much since they took control. He would have been an easy target to move on from. But they kept him. And he's actually spent a lot of time at SS  in ST games to see what he can do. He's OK there, but nothing you want long term. But this FO has done nothing BUT protect him and keep him thus far.

[Danchat]

I may mostly be in doom-and-gloom mode this year, but I think Gordon could be up for another solid year at the plate. He flashed a little power and perhaps he could step his game up a little more. I appreciate his durability.