What is a "needle mover" and is Nathan Eovaldi one?

[bap3141]

I see several people mention that a player is not a "needle mover" and it prompted me to think (maybe over think) this idea. I think there are magnitudes by which you can move a needle towards (or away from) progress. 

 

I have a two part question that I would love to read the group's thoughts on:

 

1.  What is a "needle mover" for you?

 

2. Is Nathan Eovaldi one for this team?

 

I suppose a third question would be, are there any "needle movers" left in free agency based on your perception of what moves the needle for the Twins?

[IndianaTwin]

I think it's a synonym for "ace" and roughly as precise in its definition. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

From what I've heard, the Twins aren't really in on Eovaldi. Apparently his medicals aren't great and he has a QO attached.

[IA Bean Counter]

For me a needle mover is anything that can improve the organization.  So I see Gallo as a needle mover, not that I am expecting a 2019 season from him, but that he can give us similar production to Kepler, we can trade Kepler for a prospect and then may be able to trade Gallo for a prospect.  Eovaldi could create more depth, or may allow us to trade 1 of our pitchers.  I don't know on that one.   Who would you trade and how much value would you get back.  

[IA Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

From what I've heard, the Twins aren't really in on Eovaldi. Apparently his medicals aren't great and he has a QO attached.

Brock,  is there any positive movement on what the Twins might do to improve the organization, that you have heard?

 

[DJL44]

There are very few free agents remaining who are a good bet to be better than someone already on the roster. It's basically Elvis Andrus and some pitchers who could bump Megill and Moran back to AAA for depth.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Brock,  is there any positive movement on what the Twins might do to improve the organization, that you have heard?

Unfortunately, right now, no.

They could just be holding back until the new year, after which I suspect the trade market will pick up.

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are very few free agents remaining who are a good bet to be better than someone already on the roster. It's basically Elvis Andrus and some pitchers who could bump Megill and Moran back to AAA for depth.

 

I know Andrus was ok last year (103 OPS+, 105 wRC+), but are we sure it's a "good bet" that he's better than someone already on the roster? He's 34 years old, and before last season he had OPS+ of 78, 78, 60, and 73 going back to 2018. wRC+ of 76, 76, 57, 74 going back to 2018. His league average bat last year certainly looks like a last gasp of a dying career to me.

[chpettit19]

To me a "needle mover" is someone who is significantly better than whoever they replace on the 40 and 26-man rosters, and at their position. More heavily weighted towards the 26-man and their specific position.

Example: I see a number of people suggesting the Twins should still be looking for a SS upgrade and naming Andrus and Iglesias types. To me those aren't needle movers as they're not significantly better than anyone already on the 40-man, 26-man, or Farmer at SS. Willy Adames, on the other hand, would be a needle mover as he is significantly better than people on the 40-man, 26-man, and Kyle Farmer.

As for Eovaldi, I wouldn't call him a "needle mover." He's improved depth, but not a significant improvement over anyone currently in the rotation. Slight improvement, but with his own major health concerns I simply can't see him as a significant improvement over Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, or Ober. But he is better than the back end guys on the 26-man and 40-man so it'd improve their depth nicely. I wouldn't be overly excited if they signed him, but also wouldn't be mad.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I know Andrus was ok last year (103 OPS+, 105 wRC+), but are we sure it's a "good bet" that he's better than someone already on the roster? He's 34 years old, and before last season he had OPS+ of 78, 78, 60, and 73 going back to 2018. wRC+ of 76, 76, 57, 74 going back to 2018. His league average bat last year certainly looks like a last gasp of a dying career to me.

They need a second infielder who is a competent SS. Farmer alone will not get you to the return of Royce Lewis.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They need a second infielder who is a competent SS. Farmer alone will not get you to the return of Royce Lewis.

That's fair. I think I'd still be happier without Andrus, and just running a Gordon/Polanco combo out there for any games Farmer sits.

[nicksaviking]

I don't see any free agents left that look more likely to upgrade the team than the young guys already on the roster. Being a veteran and/or a known name does not equal being better, and as Twins fans, we should have learned that lesson years ago. Go big in free agency, or do nothing and take the media and fan whipping you rightly deserve. These mid and lower tier free agents pan out WAY less than the young guys who are hungry and eager for a chance.

[Parfigliano]

32 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't see any free agents left that look more likely to upgrade the team than the young guys already on the roster. Being a veteran and/or a known name does not equal being better, and as Twins fans, we should have learned that lesson years ago. Go big in free agency, or do nothing and take the media and fan whipping you rightly deserve. These mid and lower tier free agents pan out WAY less than the young guys who are hungry and eager for a chance.

Agreed.  Signing the mid low tier free agents are betting where lightening is going to strike. They are also expensive (hi Mr Gallo).  Give the in house guys their chance.

[Chaz1966]

At this point other then Eovaldi I'd say forget the FA's and look to the youngsters. Julien looks ready for a real shot this spring, we don't need to wait until these guys are all in there mid 20's before getting called up. Play these guys and lets see what we really have, and unless one is clearly struggling lets stop the up and down b.s. 

If we must then look for a trade to bring in pitching, the Marlins and Tampa are usually willing traders.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

To me a "needle mover" is someone who is significantly better than whoever they replace on the 40 and 26-man rosters, and at their position. More heavily weighted towards the 26-man and their specific position.

Example: I see a number of people suggesting the Twins should still be looking for a SS upgrade and naming Andrus and Iglesias types. To me those aren't needle movers as they're not significantly better than anyone already on the 40-man, 26-man, or Farmer at SS. Willy Adames, on the other hand, would be a needle mover as he is significantly better than people on the 40-man, 26-man, and Kyle Farmer.

As for Eovaldi, I wouldn't call him a "needle mover." He's improved depth, but not a significant improvement over anyone currently in the rotation. Slight improvement, but with his own major health concerns I simply can't see him as a significant improvement over Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, or Ober. But he is better than the back end guys on the 26-man and 40-man so it'd improve their depth nicely. I wouldn't be overly excited if they signed him, but also wouldn't be mad.

This, I’d add for Starting Pitching and Bullpen, a needle mover improves more than the floor, specifically swing man and early innings don’t move the needle ever. Leverage relievers and front of rotation (for this year, mid rotation in previous years) move the needle.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They need a second infielder who is a competent SS. Farmer alone will not get you to the return of Royce Lewis.

They do, but none of the options in free agency move the needle, and a DFA candidate cheap no hit utility quad a type gets them by until Lewis/Lee are ready. Iglesias riding the pine for 10 mil doesn’t make sense

[ashbury]

For me it's very context dependent.  Moving the needle for the Dodgers is a higher bar to clear, and the Pirates would be a lower bar.

An average big leaguer at a position of need would usually be sufficient. That's pretty exclusive company already.

"Is he better than what we've got?". That's what moves the needle.

[IA Bean Counter]

The only place were I could see us adding value is reliever. Would anyone want Rogers back at 3-6 million?

[solomon1930]

 

Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a 4 year / $68,000,000 contract with the Boston Red Sox, including $68,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $17,000,000.

What would it take to sign him? 

Maeda at this point might better suited for the BP.  Our starters are :Eovoldi, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober

[mnfireman]

IF they need to sign a SP, which I don't think they need to, I would look at Kluber, Cueto or Wacha for 1 year over Eovaldi.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

Moving the needle for the Dodgers is a higher bar to clear, and the Pirates would be a lower bar.

For the Pirates, "moving the needle" is literally anything that moves the needle.

[bap3141]

Great thoughts all. Thanks for sharing. It looks like we all have a similar concept of what a needle mover is, but perhaps differ a little in scale. I like the thought that context is important.

 

So let me follow up with y'all with this question... 

 

Would Correa have been a needle mover? He wouldn't be an upgrade on himself.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

The loss of a high draft pick plus a multiple year high value contract for Eovaldi doesn't seem likely at all. Trades are where it will have to happen.

[Reptevia]

We’ve already traded away some highly rated prospects. Does it make sense to trade away more to improve THIS team?  I don’t believe so. 

[howeda7]

On 12/19/2022 at 11:25 AM, bap3141 said:

I see several people mention that a player is not a "needle mover" and it prompted me to think (maybe over think) this idea. I think there are magnitudes by which you can move a needle towards (or away from) progress. 

 

I have a two part question that I would love to read the group's thoughts on:

 

1.  What is a "needle mover" for you?

 

2. Is Nathan Eovaldi one for this team?

 

I suppose a third question would be, are there any "needle movers" left in free agency based on your perception of what moves the needle for the Twins?

It's one of those "I can't define it but I know it when I see it" situations.

And no, he's not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

23 hours ago, solomon1930 said:

 

Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a 4 year / $68,000,000 contract with the Boston Red Sox, including $68,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $17,000,000.

What would it take to sign him? 

Maeda at this point might better suited for the BP.  Our starters are :Eovoldi, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober

For the Twins Eovaldi would not be their best starting pitcher.

1) Gray 2) Ryan 3) Mahle 4) Paddack 

Then Maeda, Eovaldi, & Ober 

Eovaldi doesn’t even raise the floor, he has the same injury issues that half the starters already on the team are already dealing with.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:58 AM, bap3141 said:

Great thoughts all. Thanks for sharing. It looks like we all have a similar concept of what a needle mover is, but perhaps differ a little in scale. I like the thought that context is important.

 

So let me follow up with y'all with this question... 

 

Would Correa have been a needle mover? He wouldn't be an upgrade on himself.

 

 

Well, he’s certainly better than Farmer!

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Well, he’s certainly better than Farmer!

If folks aren’t happy with Farmer or the rest of the infield, the team should probably stay away from groundball machine Eovaldi.

[bap3141]

Farmer at SS wouldn’t bother me if they could have landed a few big FAs at other spots.

 

 

 

[August J Gloop]

With the shift removal, ground ball pitchers with no strike outs will be shot into space. Eovaldi does do strikeouts at a good rate, though. On a decent deal, he's a good add. I wouldn't bother, though. It's all about getting an all star bullpen together for me.