Joey Gallo Is A Land of Contrasts

[South Dakota Tom]

Something else this does is open up the “come see what we got” cupboard. Brings attention and potential competitive bidding to our whole roster. Makes trades possible if it is perceived you have an excess supply.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Gallo has a career OPS of 770 against LH pitching.  Is there anyone available that's better against LH pitching.  Can they play corner OF / CF and 1B.  Keep in mind a 1 year contract is quite advantageous when you have prospects knocking at the door.

Thank you for the info on his split. I wasn't aware of that until you posted it and I also heard it on the Patreon today. Once again, I've been changing my opinion on this signing. More than willing I was a but knee jerk at first. 

While I still am not excited about Gallo, and I don't know that I would have gone this route, I see a method to the madness now:

1] Kepler is moved for a player, (packaged?) or a prospect of decent quality, and gets a change of scenery.

2] Gallo also gets a change of scenery after probably just not being a fit in NY. Meanwhile, Kepler's defense is replaced by Gallo, who can also be a part-time option in CF, and a spare 1B if needed. Gallo has way more power, and we don't have the enormous splits that Kepler is known for. Further, we still have a veteran bat to not "force" Wallner to the ML level, and allow Kirilloff...if/when ready to go...to focus more on 1B and needed less in the OF.

The #1 issue is, of course, do we get the Gallo of 2022, utterly useless, OR, do we get the 2 time All Star that was good, and productive, as recently as 2021 and has a career OPS+ of 109 even after bottoming out for a career poor season in 2022? No question there's a bit of a gamble here, but again, I'm seeing the method to the madness in this move.

Everything goes as "planned/hoped", Larnach in LF, Buxton, Gallo in RF, Gordon as a super-utility, and a healthy AK covering 1B and can still play some corner OF as needed. Celestino and Wallner begin the year in St Paul as both are talented, but have rough edges to SS smooth over. What's still missing? A RH bat for this lineup that can help make a difference. I just don't see Garlick as the answer, more of a fallback. The $ is there to still add. How much better does depth, options, and potential production look if they add Myers, Mancini, or maybe even Pollack? Some have mentioned Profar, and while I'm not crazy about him, I could see a potential fit. But $ available, need, opportunity, and potential roster construction still screams at me to add a RH bat to the mix.

[randy_moist]

Required watch

They paid a couple million for an upgrade over Kepler (presuming a trade). It's not exciting, but it's a good move. The problem is we don't yet know where this ranks amongst all off-season moves.

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I hope nobody was just watching MLB Network. JP Morosi, Matt Vasgersian, and Harold Reynolds just gave their predictions for Gallo's BA/HR/RBI totals for 2023. .230/30+/80+ was more or less the prediction. They were all big believers in his exit velo on the pull side leading to a jump in BA with the new shift rule.

I'm sure they're just Twins apologists so are being biased.

If those predications are accurate, I'll be eating crow along with what seems to be most of the readers on this site! I hope I'll need a bunch of salt!

[Karbo]

An awful lot of dislike for the guy here. It looks like another long shot taken by this FO. One of these days a long shot is due to pay off. Lets hope this one does, as they invested about 7% of their projected salary on him.

[old nurse]

37 minutes ago, Karbo said:

An awful lot of dislike for the guy here. It looks like another long shot taken by this FO. One of these days a long shot is due to pay off. Lets hope this one does, as they invested about 7% of their projected salary on him.

He went to New York and tanked, He went to LA and did not recover He is not the first player that has tanked going to the Yankees. The hot take here is to complain on veterans 

[kenneth frank]

It almost reads like some of these posts were written by the front office trying to save face. I just don't understand why they are hell bent on trading Kepler.

 

[Pat]

My point is that the signing was superfluous. How many LH hitting outfielders does that give the Twins? Five? If he had been a RH hitter it would have made sense.

[saviking]

Let's just say the Twins were, swinging for the fences, with this signing ?

[randy_moist]

2 hours ago, kenneth frank said:

It almost reads like some of these posts were written by the front office trying to save face. I just don't understand why they are hell bent on trading Kepler.

 

This is asinine. The thread is overwhelming opposed to the signing, but a small group of us like it and that makes us sycophants? How about trying to engage earnestly with other posters you disagree with, instead of just being a butt about things?

For example, I think Gallo is a clear upgrade over Kepler. Ever wonder why Kepler, despite his reputation, doesn't win GGs? That's because they've been going to Gallo, instead. Kepler is very good in the OF, Gallo is probably better. I also think a cursory look at bbref will show anyone that Gallo is just the better offensive player. There's room to quibble on style and future projections. But I believe, to date, there's not much debate. That's why they're 'hell bent on trading him,' they've already shown that for a slight bit more money, they can improve.

Post-Hot Stove, this is the sort of move they can and should make to spend the money they have, regardless of what could have been done previously and our sentiments about that. 

[jmlease1]

Gallo is a complicated signing. It's not the worst move in the world, but it is a really frustrating one for Twins fans because the fit is a tough one and it's unlikely to be one that was made without other moves in mind that haven't occurred yet. So right now we're stuck with Gallo in isolations and it's easy to make ourselves a little bit crazy over it.

For people that hate a "three true outcomes" approach, were thrilled to see Sano headed out of town...there's no stat on concept that's going to make those people happy about this move, not even Gallo's history as a quality defender. And I get it: it's not a terribly aesthetically pleasing style of baseball in many ways. 

I'm still struggling to come around on the "depth" argument though I do think it's an important one to consider. the folks reminding us that at one point the twins were starting their 6th-10th choices for OF last season, including games where none of them were a top 5 pick for the OF ain't wrong. That said, after last season I think I would be much more comfortable with Nick Gordon as an OF than I was at the start of 2022 or Matt Wallner coming up as an injury replacement. Pre-Gallo, the OF depth chart looked something like: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff, Garlick, Celestino, Wallner...and even with injury risks from Buxton, Kirilloff, and maybe Larnach (I would argue that presuming Larnach as a significant injury risk is a little overblown right now; the presumptions on Buxton and Kirilloff are more than fair) that our depth doesn't look too bad here. Things didn't start falling off the ledge for the Twins until they needed to get past the 8th pick last year, either, and that was a really injury ravaged group. can you put together a roster planning for needing your 9th OF consistently or are you already screwed? (and this year that 9th OF pre-Gallo is probably Austin Martin, so...maybe not so bad?)

Does this position the Twins better to deal one of their many LH OF guys? I think that's the best argument for signing Gallo: take a potential quality bat off the market, deal from position of depth, using guys you know have value (and presumably) interest from other teams.

It's just hard for me to be happy about it until the music finally stops. seems like they could have done better to address the OF needs earlier and gotten a RH bat and not placed themselves in a position where they really NEED to make a deal, instead of just having the option to make a deal if something good comes together.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

The hot take here is to complain 

Fixed it for you.

[Kipp35]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Max Kepler is making $8.5 million in 2023.

Public school math still says that is less than $11mm, I believe. But thank you pulling that one take, from what I wrote. Because that was the foundation of what my point was...

[KirbyDome89]

On 12/19/2022 at 11:00 AM, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins were decimated by OF injury last year. At the end of the year, they were playing their 6-8th choices all at the same time. This isn't necessarily about trading someone. It might be about depth. 

It's a gamble on a guy that has been great, even if you don't like how he was great. I've flipped on this completely the more I think about it. Given what was left in free agency, this makes sense for a mid market team. 

I doubt anybody is high on the signing to begin with, but I like it a lot less if Gallo is a depth move. You can maybe sell fans on him being a higher upside play than Kepler. Maybe a package of Kepler + fills a different hole on this roster. That's at least a semi creative way of using the $$ resources at your disposal. 

Keeping both players feel like a "throw it against the wall and see what sticks approach." 

[tony&rodney]

Joey Gallo is now a Twin. He will be put into the lineup every day until mid June at the minimum. We hope he can be a decent player. The move was confusing to me for a range of reasons, not the least is that he is a three outcome bat which does not exactly scream ticket sales. Maybe the move works and maybe it doesn't, but it is done.

Why didn't the Yankees, with their little league right field and desire to have a LH outfielder who can field, consider Gallo? For the multitudes who love analytics, my guess is that the Yankee analysis was very low on the potential of Gallo.

All that said, wouldn't it be wonderful if Gallo hit 40 home runs, stole 20 bases, won a Gold Glove, and hit .265? 

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

Public school math still says that is less than $11mm, I believe. But thank you pulling that one take, from what I wrote. Because that was the foundation of what my point was...

I was simply providing you with information. Didn't make any comment on what that information meant, or how you should take it. Your information was incorrect so I thought I'd give you the correct information for your own knowledge. You're free to do whatever you want with that information. Getting upset about receiving information is an interesting response, though.

[Original_JB]

20 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Gallo has a career OPS of 770 against LH pitching.  Is there anyone available that's better against LH pitching.  Can they play corner OF / CF and 1B.  Keep in mind a 1 year contract is quite advantageous when you have prospects knocking at the door.

Matt Carpenter signed a 1 yr deal for $12M. I think I'd prefer him.

[Unwinder]

It's pretty clear that the FO didn't drop Sano because they've lost their taste for all-or-nothing strikeout slugger guys, they just did it because they think he's cooked.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

Matt Carpenter signed a 1 yr deal for $12M. I think I'd prefer him.

That's a very interesting option.  He only played 47 games last year but was great.  You have the fact he is 37 to consider.  That's always scary.  I think they are committed to Miranda at 3B which I absolutely support over signing a 37 y/o free agent.  We need some long-term solutions.  Let's see if Miranda can handle 3B.  Play him at 1B?  Not if they believe Kirilloff will be healthy.  Even if they are not, I would prefer Arrez there over a 37 y/o.   Now, if they trade Arrez, I can see it. 

[kenneth frank]

20 hours ago, randy_moist said:

This is asinine. The thread is overwhelming opposed to the signing, but a small group of us like it and that makes us sycophants? How about trying to engage earnestly with other posters you disagree with, instead of just being a butt about things?

For example, I think Gallo is a clear upgrade over Kepler. Ever wonder why Kepler, despite his reputation, doesn't win GGs? That's because they've been going to Gallo, instead. Kepler is very good in the OF, Gallo is probably better. I also think a cursory look at bbref will show anyone that Gallo is just the better offensive player. There's room to quibble on style and future projections. But I believe, to date, there's not much debate. That's why they're 'hell bent on trading him,' they've already shown that for a slight bit more money, they can improve.

Post-Hot Stove, this is the sort of move they can and should make to spend the money they have, regardless of what could have been done previously and our sentiments about that. 

The GG reference is totally moot. The GG is not only based on defense, but who you are, how much you get paid and who you play for. Plus some lobbying. A good example of this was Mattingly repeatedly receiving the GG over Hrbek...the better than or equal to fielder. Sorry, but this off season I'm very cynical about the MN Twins front office and the only thing that saved the organization in 22 was CC falling into their lap. If the past couple of years is any type of offensive indication, Gallo is not much of an upgrade. Don't get me totally wrong, I think he's a good addition to the team, but at $11 mil? 

[Kipp35]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I was simply providing you with information. Didn't make any comment on what that information meant, or how you should take it. Your information was incorrect so I thought I'd give you the correct information for your own knowledge. You're free to do whatever you want with that information. Getting upset about receiving information is an interesting response, though.

Everything the Twins do is frustrating and upsetting. As a fan of 46 years, never being a bandwagon fan, I get that right to be frustrated. Further, I can be frustrated when I make a point, and the ONE item pulled from my point is a correction on a number and not the point being made. The fact is, what did Kepler make last season? Was I accurate in that? Is the number you corrected me on for the upcoming season, still below $11mm? Then I feel the point I was attempting in making is still valid. But fans that want to let them [Twins] off the hook and make excuses, all the while supporting their poor decisions with their money, time and support, want to make these types of corrections.

That is totally fine. You can feel free to continue to support these poor decisions and then make excuses for this club. Further, feel free to continue to correct people on this forum with minor corrections in their points, pro or con. But let's not get our feelings hurt when we are called on the fact you are Google-ing the math of this point instead of understanding the point being made.

[randy_moist]

14 hours ago, kenneth frank said:

The GG reference is totally moot. The GG is not only based on defense, but who you are, how much you get paid and who you play for. Plus some lobbying. A good example of this was Mattingly repeatedly receiving the GG over Hrbek...the better than or equal to fielder. Sorry, but this off season I'm very cynical about the MN Twins front office and the only thing that saved the organization in 22 was CC falling into their lap. If the past couple of years is any type of offensive indication, Gallo is not much of an upgrade. Don't get me totally wrong, I think he's a good addition to the team, but at $11 mil? 

I don't want to get hung up the GGs too much, but comparing awards voting from Hrbeks day to present isn't fair. In general, numbers and actual observations/analysis play a much bigger role now than reputation did back then. You're right, though, other factors still play into it. I think in the case of Gallo, he earns GGs because he's an elite and complete defender. He does way more with his arm than Kepler and the other aspects are neutral at best. If he's an upgrade defensively and offensively, which I think is entirely possible, then spending $11 million on him is worth it if Max can truly be moved. It's only a couple million to upgrade afterall

As for cynicism over this season, please by all means! I have felt much of that with this org, I'm not trying to say you shouldn't feel a certain way. Just don't take it out on other posters is what I'm suggesting. We're more or less seeing these things from the same vantage point as fans. Which means when we disagree, it's because we simply see the same thing differently. Suggesting other people have some agenda because they don't see things your way (the essence of your op) is dismissive and pretty egotistical tbh

[nokomismod]

Count me in on liking this trade unless Gallo has lost a step. I still think of him as a plus CF defender and with Buxton track record the Twins will finally have a decent back up for him and also insurance for Larnach in left.