Twins Need a Minnesota Miracle

[Seth Stohs]

Over the past five years, the Minnesota Vikings have had two "Minneapolis Miracles." In a playoff game against the Saints, a Case Keenum to Stefon Diggs play turned into one of the craziest game endings in NFL history. Then on Saturday, the Vikings fell behind 33-0  after halftime and used another miracle to win 39-36 in overtime, the biggest comeback in NFL history. 

Now it's the Twins turn. At this point, the team needs a miracle to turn around what has been an incredibly disappointing first half of the offseason. 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

On Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings fell behind the Indianapolis Colts, 33-0 at halftime. The team was frankly very bad in all aspects of the game. The defense bent and broke. Special teams allowed a blocked punt and a few long returns. The offense didn't get much going at all, and when they did, it ended in either a fumble, or a wide receiver just stopping a route that led to an interception. It was really, really bad. 

Twins fans, does this sound familiar? The first half of the Twins offseason has not been good for the Twins or its fans. Let me count the ways: 

• Carlos Correa and Scott Boras did a great job of maximizing his value over the course of the offseason. The Twins felt really good about their chances of signing the All Star shortstop. Last Monday, there were reports that he was starting to tell people he was heading to Minnesota. Then on Tuesday, the Giants offered 13 years and $350 million, and he signed. We can't know everything that went on behind the scenes, of course, but no question the front office had to be disappointed. Many fans are still going through the coping process. 
• Before Correa signed, one fallback plan, Xander Bogaerts, signed with the Padres for 11 years and $180 million. That came a few days after Trea Turner signed an 11 year, $300 million deal. Those contracts, of course, bumped out the value of a Correa contract. 
• It also bumped up the value of the Twins remaining fallback option for an impact shortstop. While the Twins had several conversations over the past week with Dansby Swanson, the former Vanderbilt Commodore and Atlanta Braves star, he ultimately signed this weekend with the Chicago Cubs. 
• While Kyle Farmer is a solid MLB player and shortstop, he probably won't set a lot of tickets. 
• Obviously the Twins weren't going to be involved in negotiations with free agent starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, but for whatever reason, they were involved in negotiations with Carlos Rodon and his agent, Scott Boras. As we know, Boras used the contracts of those big deals, specifically the deGrom deal, to request seven years and up to $30 million. While the Twins and Cardinals stayed involved in discussions, the lefty signed with the Yankees for six years and $162 million. 
• And again, while those conversations were happening, the Twins saw the likes of Chris Bassitt signed with the Blue Jays (3 years, $63 million). Others who signed that would have fit the Twins goal of acquiring pitchers that are at least as good as Sonny Gray: Jameson Taillon (Cubs, 4 years, $68 million), Taijuan Walker (Phillies, 4 years, $72 million), Jose Quintana (Mets, 2 years, $26 million), Andrew Heaney (Rangers, 2 years, $25 million), Sean Manaea (Giants, 2 years, $25 million), Zach Eflin (Rays, 3 years, $40 million), Ross Stripling (Giants, 2 years, $24 million), 
• At this time, there is literally one remaining free agent starting pitcher that could be argued would be the Twins top starter. That's Nathan Eovaldi, who throws gas and can be very good, but he hasn't been a beacon of health himself. 
• And to make matters worse for Twins fans, reports have come out over the past couple of weeks that the Twins would certainly consider trading Luis Arraez to acquire pitching. No matter how good the pitcher the Twins got, losing Arraez would be painful for a lot of fan. 
• Another fan favorite, at times, has been Max Kepler, and his name has bounced around in trade rumors. As with Arraez, there may be good reason to look to deal Kepler, but many fans will be greatly disappointed. 
• On Friday afternoon, it was announced that the Twins had a deal with outfielder Joey Gallo for one year and $11 million. As @Nick Nelson noted this weekend, Gallo hit Rock Bottom in 2022 (I know, I know... at least he made contact! <rimshot>) when he hit just .160 between the Yankees and Dodgers. However, in 2021, between the Rangers and Yankees, he hit .199/.351/.458 (.808) with 38 home runs, and that's even after he really struggled over the final two months if New York. Gallo was an All Star in 2019 and 2021. He won Gold Glove Awards in 2020 and 2021. He's one year removed from a very nice season. However, because of a terrible 2022, the low batting average and the massive strikeout count, it isn't a signing that makes many Twins fans happy. 
• And, in an article about Twins options following Correa's signing with the Giants. The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentioned several options for how the Twins offseason could go. One of the ideas was to take a step back by trading some veterans for prospects, essentially throwing the towel on the 2023 season, and hoping to compete again in 2024. While it is unlikely, it certainly isn't something any Twins fan wants to hear.  

To be fair, the Twins did get their top choice at catcher when Christian Vazquez signed last week to team with Ryan Jeffers. They didn't lose anyone in the MLB Rule 5 draft. They moved from #13 to #5 in the 2023 draft thanks to MLB's first draft lottery. 

Back to the Vikings... Down 33-0 coming into the second half, the team was incredible and almost inexplicably mounted the biggest comeback in NFL history and won 39-36 in overtime.  It was a second Minneapolis Miracle. Kirk Cousins use all of his weapons (Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborn, Adam Thielen, TJ Hockenson, Dalvin Cook) to throw for over 400 yards. The defense actually got aggressive and got pressure on Matt Ryan. They also stopped the run. And sure, a little luck was involved, but that's OK. Huge win, and it clinched the NFC North division title. 

The Twins offseason is just a little over two months in, and spring training will start in about two more months (and the WBC, if you're into that). This is about halftime of baseball's offseason. Right now, the Twins offseason has been rough. 33-0 rough? I would say more like 31-7 rough, but that's probably just semantics. It has not been good for Twins fans. And as @Melissa Berman wrote last week, it might just be difficult to get fans back into the seats at Target Field if this continues. 

However, since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been in charge of the Twins Baseball Operations group, halftime is often when they really start moving and shaking. We have seen them make deals in late January, throughout February, and even after spring training has started. Whatever we have guessed their budget might be (and this year, it should be somewhere between about $140-$155 million), they have managed to hit that number. 

They are smart guys. Certainly they had contingency plans for if Carlos Correa signed elsewhere. And certainly Plan B options have been lost too. However, there is time, so don't give up completely on the offseason. 

Aside from Eovaldi, free agency will likely not be the means to quality acquisition. Instead of just giving up money for players to sign, they will now have to trade players to acquire players. Can they trade for a quality starting pitcher, like Pablo Reyes from the Marlins, or one of the Brewers aces? Speaking of the Brewers, could Willy Adames be available? It's really hard to know which players are available, or how that will change over the course of the coming month or two.  (For more on Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Christian Yelich, Brandon Woodruff, Gus Varland, William Contreras, and the Brewers, check out Brewer Fanatic.) 

The Minnesota Twins will need another Minnesota Miracle to turn around what has been a rough offseason so far for the team. In a market that includes teams from all four major professional sports leagues, a soccer team, a Big 10 school (U of Minnesota) and a second Division I college in St. Thomas, dollars can only be spent in so many places. And with half of the market or more unable to watch the Twins on TV, they need to find ways to compete. 

Ultimately, it will be Winning that brings fans to the stadium. That is always the case. Sure, when a player of the caliber of Carlos Correa signs, some season tickets are sold, but sustained winning is what keeps fans coming back. Whether fans are excited about the offseason, what matters most is what happens on the field in the season. 

 

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[CRF]

I don't think anyone really expected them to resign Correa. Would it have been nice? Yep, but it was pretty obvious that he was going to be out of the range that the Twins would pay. Ok, now you have to move on to the other FA's. There definitely were/are some that would seem to fit and help us. Vasquez looks to be a good get. There were some pitchers that sure would look good in a Twins uni, but they either didn't get any interest from our FO, or they got better offers. I'm not smart enough, or informed enough, to know exactly what our FO is thinking and what the plan is. The Gallo signing is just baffling. I hope there are some more signings and moves to be made. There's still time left before ST. This FO has made plenty of moves right up to, and after ST. Maybe it'll all come together somewhat before then. I sure hope so. 

[LewFordLives]

In my mind, the left side of the infield has gone from a strength to a glaring weakness. I question whether Miranda will stick at 3B, and if not, what is plan B?  Moving on from Urshela could be the the worst decision the front office makes this off-season. I guess there's time to address this, but teams aren't going to just give away a quality third baseman.

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion, We are placing too much weight on Carlos Correa. 

 

[kenneth frank]

I wonder if Correa didn't sign because he knew the front office wouldn't do what it actually takes to consistently field a winning team.

[Squirrel]

35 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

In my opinion, We are placing too much weight on Carlos Correa. 

 

Are we, though? It's not just about not getting Correa. As much as I and others wanted the Twins to sign him, they lost out on other possible signings along the way, and not just at SS. That's what the issue is. Not just that we didn't sign Correa, but we didn't get the pitcher or a different SS or a RP. So who is left to sign? All the after thoughts, all the Happs and Shoemakers. Yes, we can trade, but trade who? Lewis? Lee? To get a frontline anyone, the conversation begins with them, maybe both of them. We have little else in our system that will bring back the difference maker.

[Nashvilletwin]

To be honest, the miracle for which I’m praying is that the Nephew wakes up and sacks Falvey and Levine before they completely decimate the future of the franchise with their wild-eyed commitment to not wasting the one season of having (through their - in the own mind - ingenious FO machinations) Gray, Mahle, and Maeda together. Yep, I’m just waiting for this brain trust who has generated zero playoff wins in their tenure and are still living off a magical season based on the juiced ball to trade our last fan favorite (and All Star) and several more top prospects to try to kick save a season based on three pitchers, none of whom will likely exceed 100-120 innings and all of whom will not be back next year, let alone be here after the trade deadline.

For some reason this past week I can’t get the theme song from the original Poseidon Adventure, There’s Got to be a Morning After out of my head.

As a “Super Fan” I’m having nightmares that I’m going to wake up on Opening Day to the Twins facing a left handed starter and our batting order includes Gallo, Farmer, Garlick, Celestino, Kepler and Polanco. I then spend hours on the phone with a customer service rep from DirectTv trying to get my money back for the MLB package. The nightmare ends when my wife and I take our dog on a two hour walk on a beautiful evening instead of watching the Twins throw it around the diamond and Rocco make another bonehead decision based on the “analytics”.  I wonder why I would ever have thought to waste so much time and money on these Twins and I thank God that I was able to wake up to realise that.

[TwinsDr2021]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

In my opinion, We are placing too much weight on Carlos Correa. 

 

The Twins has signed Vazquez, Gallo, Bundy, Joe Smith, Coulombe,  and Archer the last two years and you think we are placing too much value on Correa?

I think most fans didn't think the Twins would sign Correa once let alone twice, but with all the available free agents the last two years the list above is what the Twins signed. It is sickening (but hey the Twins have been in on Rodon both times he was a free agent) and because that is what they signed they traded away how much last year to get Gray and Mahle, and most still don't think they staff is good enough to compete (I actually do) and if they want to upgrade basically anywhere they have to trade even more. That is my frustration with the Twins.

[rv78]

I beg to differ. If they are "smart guys" they wouldn't need a miracle.

[Whitey333]

Nice article Seth!  IMO the Twins did everything wrong so far this off season.  But probably everything right within their unwavering "plan". Not signing Correa was probably smart.  But missing out on other FA is inexcusable but not u usually.  That's how they do business.  They play boring baseball on the field and off.  If 2023 turns out to be year three of another listless team the FO needs to go.  Why can't they be a little truthful and transparent with fans?  Remember their .ontra is " it's the process, not the results."

 

 

 

 

[Original_JB]

10 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Why can't they be a little truthful and transparent with fans?  Remember their mantra is " it's the process, not the results."

And along those lines, does anyone (because I have no clue) know how the Pirates, A's, Reds 'market' their teams? I know the Reds fans are at war with their owner who has stated that the fanbase should feel lucky they're a small market team or they wouldn't have any team at all.  https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/reds-president-move-team-comments-fans-cheer-bad-01g0fj4zgf95  

[roger]

Interesting post, Seth, thanks and have a merry Christmas.

I was among a tiny minority who was happy they didn't sign Correa.  I am happy with Farmer manning short until Lewis is ready to begin his HOF career.

I also am happy with the starting rotation.  I expect their #2 thru #5 starters will match up with most teams 2-5.  

I believed they needed to make three moves during the offseason.  First, a better than Jeffers catcher to start 100 games.  Second, a very good late inning reliever to pair with Duran and Lopez.  And third, a good veteran catcher to a minor league contract to work with the young arms in St. Paul and be available for a callup when Jeffers is injured.

They got #1 and there remains time for #2 and #3.  I value Keps more than most, however, with the Gallo signing I can accept he may be going.  But I will be hurt beyond repair should they trade Luis.  Waiting for his next 10 pitch at bat is one of the main reasons I stay around for all 9 innings of many games.

Take care, Seth, and enjoy your Holiday.

[RJA]

Great summary, Seth, as usual.  It is not losing Correa that frustrates many fans, though most wanted him back, it is the failure of this FO to sign anyone while they wait for Correa's decision.  It appears to me that Boras plays this FO like a fiddle.  He convinced them to sign Correa for one year to up his value, and then leads them on in negotations until somebody steps in and gives him the contract he wanted.  Then, he convinces them to add Gallo, another left handed hitting outfielder, for 11 million on a one year contract with no option, so that if he is lousy the Twins lose 11 million, but if he rebounds, they will lose him to free agency.  IMHO, if the Twins want to create any sustained level of success, they need to develop their own talent and use free agency effectively.  Making trades for players with one or two years of control simply kicks the can down the road.

[MMMordabito]

2 minutes ago, roger said:

I am happy with Farmer manning short until Lewis is ready to begin his HOF career.

There's the Minneapolis Miracle that will be necessary.

[PDX Twin]

The only way that a "miracle" is necessary is if you expect the Twins to be a championship team. I don't, and I doubt that the ownership does either. This team will be fine. It will win a lot of games and lose a lot of games. It will finish between 2nd and 4th in the division and stay home in October. That's what the Twins are on average. Sometimes they are better and win the weak division; sometimes they are worse and finish last.

Dreaming is nice, but we don't "need" a miracle. The Twins will be respectable and they will break even with modest attendance and a low salary budget. That's life. We are not the Dodgers or the Yankees. And some of us don't want to be!

Sorry for being "Debbie Downer," but I just get tired of the apparent expectation that the Twins should suddenly become something they are not, and are not likely to be except on those rare, lucky occasions when everything comes up aces.

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Are we, though? It's not just about not getting Correa. As much as I and others wanted the Twins to sign him, they lost out on other possible signings along the way, and not just at SS. That's what the issue is. Not just that we didn't sign Correa, but we didn't get the pitcher or a different SS or a RP. So who is left to sign? All the after thoughts, all the Happs and Shoemakers. Yes, we can trade, but trade who? Lewis? Lee? To get a frontline anyone, the conversation begins with them, maybe both of them. We have little else in our system that will bring back the difference maker.

I won't argue your thoughts. I expressed concern at the beginning of free agency under the assumption: That chasing a big contract would require freezing the money available for that contract and therefore cause issues offering that earmarked money to others. 

However... Since the Giants made the deal. The comments... even articles are suggesting that signing Correa is the difference between competing and starting the rebuild now. That is way too much weight on a single player.  

 

[Otaknam]

My concern is the FO will make a panic trade that includes Lewis or Lee, trading the future for some short term benefit for a team that won’t be in contention in 2023. That’s what they did with Mahle and Gray. The Gray trade was understandable, but Mahle had health issues and they knew that. Trading Arraez, as bad as that would be from the fan perspective, is somewhat understandable if it can bring a player of real value, not another number four starter or someone who is a free agent after 2023. 

[Peter]

This twins team may surprise-look at Seattle and Baltimore last year. Signing cc would set this team back for years just like mauer did. We got good catcher/hopefully gallo will be surprise this year. 199 ba is ???need to get another starter which I think they will as well reliever. I’m tired on seeing all this negativity on these posts!!  Come on!!! Support our twins!!   

[mikelink45]

I am glad you got this out of the way.  It was an excellent summary (as usual) and I appreciate your work, but it is not a holiday cheer article and I do not think that it is possible to put this off season in better perspective.  I think tickets are going to be easy to obtain this season.

[Riverbrian]

44 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins has signed Vazquez, Gallo, Bundy, Joe Smith, Coulombe,  and Archer the last two years and you think we are placing too much value on Correa?

I think most fans didn't think the Twins would sign Correa once let alone twice, but with all the available free agents the last two years the list above is what the Twins signed. It is sickening (but hey the Twins have been in on Rodon both times he was a free agent) and because that is what they signed they traded away how much last year to get Gray and Mahle, and most still don't think they staff is good enough to compete (I actually do) and if they want to upgrade basically anywhere they have to trade even more. That is my frustration with the Twins.

Correa is still only one guy. If this team was just a Correa away... I might feel different. 

What's next. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, kenneth frank said:

I wonder if Correa didn't sign because he knew the front office wouldn't do what it actually takes to consistently field a winning team.

I'd guess the extra $65 million he got from the Giants played a pretty big role...

[Heiny]

Great article Seth.  I think the Twins could rebound for this offseason with a C+ to B grade if they were to do a couple of things.  Sign Andrus or Iglesias to put Farmer back to a very good UT position.  Sign Eovaldi to bolster the rotation.  Sign someone like maybe Duval to play either RF or LF.  These signings should keep us in the budget.  Not sure how to fix the 40 man in this scenario.  Also,  maybe a trade for a top back end reliever would help there.  In any case,  I am not giving up on the Twins just yet.  Some might call me an eternall optimist.  Others might call me an eternal fool. But I cant' help but love baseball, and I can't help but love my Twins.  So keep up the good work,  and we'll see you at the ballpark.

[Nashvilletwin]

37 minutes ago, roger said:

I am happy with Farmer manning short until Lewis is ready to begin his HOF career.

What did the old lady say at the restaurant in When Harry Met Sally? “I’ll have what she’s having”. Lol.

41 minutes ago, roger said:

Waiting for his next 10 pitch at bat is one of the main reasons I stay around for all 9 innings of many games

Rec this! 

[Squirrel]

32 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I won't argue your thoughts. I expressed concern at the beginning of free agency under the assumption: That chasing a big contract would require freezing the money available for that contract and therefore cause issues offering that earmarked money to others. 

However... Since the Giants made the deal. The comments... even articles are suggesting that signing Correa is the difference between competing and starting the rebuild now. That is way too much weight on a single player.  

 

Well, but it was a difference maker. We shouldn't be in rebuild mode at this time. People usually rebuild AFTER they've already had success. We haven't and now we are rebuilding? And signing a Correa, or any big name, does attract attention and other players ... because it makes us look like we are really trying to compete. Okay, so, I'm not suggesting the the FO isn't trying, but, by staying away from the FA market, all we are left with is development and trades ... and we can't develop what we don't or no longer have because we've traded it all. We are backed into a very difficult corner and have made it that much more difficult to be competitive. So, in essence, we will remain in rebuild mode for how long? Haven't we essentially been in rebuild mode since 2013, except for a season or two or hopefulness? This is my problem. It's not just Correa. It's the inactivity on the FA market for frontline players. We need those to compete, as well as the others. The FO has chosen a path that makes it nearly impossible to go the distance. As a fan, that's what I want. They are still my team, I will still cheer them on. But the miracle would be a team that beyond reason just clicks and gets it done. That's a huge hope for a fan like me when hope is waning.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, kenneth frank said:

I wonder if Correa didn't sign because he knew the front office wouldn't do what it actually takes to consistently field a winning team.

He didn’t sign because he & Boras can do math, and it wasn’t near the highest offer….$80 million light. I think it’s great we didn’t sign him!

$$ for RP…..$$ to re-sign Gray - Mahle - Maeda after May’s results……SIGN EOVALDI!

[TwinsDr2021]

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Correa is still only one guy. If this team was just a Correa away... I might feel different. 

What's next. 

So who's fault is it the Twins aren't one guy away?

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, kenneth frank said:

I wonder if Correa didn't sign because he knew the front office wouldn't do what it actually takes to consistently field a winning team.

No.  CC didn’t sign with the Twins because the Giants were willing to pay him nearly $30 million every year until he was 41 years old.   The Twins were smart not to offer anything near that!!!

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Thanks for writing the article, Seth.  Happy holidays too.  There are still some free agents unsigned that the Twins should be in on.  Two right-handed hitters I liked are Brandon Drury and Trey Mancini.  Won't be happy has Twins fan if they don't sign one of them at least.  Would pass on Eovaldi, just don't see he is that big upgrade over our current starters.  He also will cost draft capital, since the Red Sox gave him a qualifying offer.  I would like the Twins to resign Taylor Rogers for a reunion.  Believe he still a solid bullpen arm and would make our bullpen a strength.  Got to get Lopez pitching like he did for Baltimore last year.  See if could trade Kepler to Yankees for IKF (Kiner-Falefa) and RH pitcher Clark Schmidt.  Probably need to send Farmer with Kepler but fine with that.  The Yankees are supposedly interested in Kepler.  Plus, want to move IKF supposedly too.  Schmidt is the key component I want.  For the cost, risk and upside I like him over Eovaldi.  Like IKF over Farmer to hold down the SS position until Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee are ready.  Who are critical players for the Twins future.  I think they are really going to be good too.  Due to the economic structure of major league baseball.  The best way the Twins and other non-big revenue teams compete is drafting wisely and developing young talent.  Only using free agency and trades to augment that talent.  Last thought, moving up in the draft lottery to #5 gives the Twins an opportunity to draft a future Ace #1 starter.  There are some quality college pitchers that one of them should be there at #5.  That a lot better way to get an Ace than spending huge $$$ for one in free agency.   Go Twins!

 

[Paul Walerius]

Pablo Reyes?    I think you might have a couple people combined for that name.  ? Also, despite the "miracles" for Vikings the end result will be the same as Twins playoff experience lately.   We don't need miracles just people who perform when needed.  

[Thebigalguy]

Thanks for the great article. I prefer the Twins to sit tight if the alternative is trading away a batting champion. Kepler is gone with Gallo’s signing, almost for sure. Otherwise, we have strong starters and premier relievers, good defense and some pop. If Baldelli manages pitching based on game day performance and not pitch count, the Twins have a shot at playoffs if injuries can be minimized. There’s talent in the pipeline. The team doesn’t need a savior, it needs 100% every game from roster and staff, a minimum number of errors and base running mistakes, and hitting to all fields.