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So far, and now what?


Mike Sixel

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So far, it's not been what many hoped. 

They fixed catcher, imo. Jeffers is younger than when Garver first came up. He's not done developming, and they have Vazquez for three years. Good job 

They signed Gallo. I think they keep Kepler. I think, and I agree, they believe they lost last year because of injury. Gallo has been healthy. I think they aren't dealing any OF unless they get a very good pitcher with at least three years of control back.

They traded for Farmer. At this point, I hope they don't trade for a SS. I don't want to give up prospects for a guy you hope Lewis replaces in three months or less. 

I think they are going to deal for a starting pitcher. No idea who, but I'll guess Lopez from Miami.

I think they bring in one or two RPs.

IMO, they are betting on better health this year. Let's be honest, if they don't get it, won't matter who they realistically get at this point.

As is, this is a team five or so games out of the playoffs, unless everything breaks right, IMO. 

They have lots of depth right now. I think they mostly keep it that way. 

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Turner just signed with the Red Sox, so he won't be added.  I think they will try to trade for a pitcher, using Kepler and another player or two, so I think it is 50-50 on Kepler staying.  Personally, as Turner got 22 over two years, I would have preferred him over Gallo.  With so many ifs about health in the lineup, they might just go with what they have, get a RP as you suggest, and see what happens early on.  If they do well, maybe they will add at the deadline.  If not, they will likely play a lot of kids.  If they don't, I think some veterans will be dealt and some degree of rebuild will occur.  It almost has to since Mahle, Gray, and Maeda are all gone in 24 unless they extend them which will be difficult in this market given the contracts for pitchers that are being handed out.  It is going to be an interesting year I think as things could go in a number of directions.  

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12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So far, it's not been what many hoped. 

They fixed catcher, imo. Jeffers is younger than when Garver first came up. He's not done developming, and they have Vazquez for three years. Good job 

They signed Gallo. I think they keep Kepler. I think, and I agree, they believe they lost last year because of injury. Gallo has been healthy. I think they aren't dealing any OF unless they get a very good pitcher with at least three years of control back.

They traded for Farmer. At this point, I hope they don't trade for a SS. I don't want to give up prospects for a guy you hope Lewis replaces in three months or less. 

I think they are going to deal for a starting pitcher. No idea who, but I'll guess Lopez from Miami.

I think they bring in one or two RPs.

IMO, they are betting on better health this year. Let's be honest, if they don't get it, won't matter who they realistically get at this point.

As is, this is a team five or so games out of the playoffs, unless everything breaks right, IMO. 

They have lots of depth right now. I think they mostly keep it that way. 

I think that is very optimistic at best.  Someone is the division will get to 88/90 wins.  I'd bet on Cleveland and that would put us at 83 to 85 wis .  No chance of that happening.  We won't get a wildcard spot.  I can't see us improving by 5 to 7 wins with losing Correa and better health.  But, here's hoping!  It's been a lousy couple of years and it would be great to be better.

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Just now, baul0010 said:

I think that is very optimistic at best.  Someone is the division will get to 88/90 wins.  I'd bet on Cleveland and that would put us at 83 to 85 wine.  No chance of that happening.  We won't get a wildcard spot.  I can't see us improving by 5 to 7 wins with losing Correa and better health.  But, here's hoping!  It's been a lousy couple of years and it would be great to be better.

There was a month last year where they played their 6th, 7th, and 8th OFers at the same time. Plus no Polanco. I don't necessarily think they're good if healthy, but I can see the argument they are. 

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12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

IMO, they are betting on better health this year. Let's be honest, if they don't get it, won't matter who they realistically get at this point.

 

Agreed. If Buxton can stay healthy.... I mean surely by now the medical staff/doctors must have a better idea about what it takes  and the treatment  necessary to keep him on the field for 100+ games a season?? obviously the other players, especially pitching needs to remain healthy but he is a massive piece for us to have a playoff chance

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48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So far, it's not been what many hoped. 

They fixed catcher, imo. Jeffers is younger than when Garver first came up. He's not done developming, and they have Vazquez for three years. Good job 

They signed Gallo. I think they keep Kepler. I think, and I agree, they believe they lost last year because of injury. Gallo has been healthy. I think they aren't dealing any OF unless they get a very good pitcher with at least three years of control back.

They traded for Farmer. At this point, I hope they don't trade for a SS. I don't want to give up prospects for a guy you hope Lewis replaces in three months or less. 

I think they are going to deal for a starting pitcher. No idea who, but I'll guess Lopez from Miami.

I think they bring in one or two RPs.

IMO, they are betting on better health this year. Let's be honest, if they don't get it, won't matter who they realistically get at this point.

As is, this is a team five or so games out of the playoffs, unless everything breaks right, IMO. 

They have lots of depth right now. I think they mostly keep it that way. 

Very good post Mike. Are there any really good free agent RP's left?  Who should  the Twins sign as RP now?

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47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There was a month last year where they played their 6th, 7th, and 8th OFers at the same time. Plus no Polanco. I don't necessarily think they're good if healthy, but I can see the argument they are. 

Healthy productive seasons from Larnach and Kiriloff could go along why towards getting us back towards relevance.  It just seems like a tall ask with their last couple seasons.  I sadly just don't think this group has what it takes.  I'm thinking if Royce can get healthy, him and Brooks Lee could be a great pair to build around.  

If the Twins are having another down season, I wouldn't be opposed to restocking the farm with an eye towards when Lee will be MLB ready.  I'm hoping Lewis is established at short by then.  

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The injury excuse certainly has merit - but only for part of the Twins’ problems last year. Poor fundamentals, poor in-game management, spotty situational hitting and pitching, lack of improvement throughout the season, etc. are just as important reasons for the poor finish.

As a small/mid-market team, we will never compete for a pennant unless we do all those things well. Never. We can never stack our team so deeply to overcome poor performance in those areas. So it doesn’t matter if we resigned Correa, or any other big name -they’d help, but just adding one or two  of them is not sufficient.

We’ve had three “big” additions and two “big” subtractions. Re the additions, Vasquez was an excellent pick-up, Farmer will not move the dial, Gallo was a Hail Mary. The losses of Correa and Urshela are much more significant.  There is no way this team on a positional player basis is better today than at the end of the year.

So the strategy basically is:

1. Get people healthy. 
2. Hope people have better seasons or improve. 
3. Count on the additions of Mahle and Maeda to make a distinguishable difference.

I get the rationale that we can’t waste the last year of Gray, Maeda and Mahle being here (and it’s absolutely the last year for at least two of them).  But this roster is not built to compete for a pennant, let alone our miserable division, unless they improve considerable in the little things. I have no confidence that this team has the managerial or veteran leadership to make a big jump in these areas.

Also, this team, especially any day Buxton is not playing, will be boring to watch. Farmer, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco? I’m asleep just thinking about it. They will be unbearable to watch if they throw the ball around or continue to struggle with the fundamentals.  

 

 

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4 hours ago, RJA said:

Turner just signed with the Red Sox, so he won't be added.  I think they will try to trade for a pitcher, using Kepler and another player or two, so I think it is 50-50 on Kepler staying.  Personally, as Turner got 22 over two years, I would have preferred him over Gallo.  With so many ifs about health in the lineup, they might just go with what they have, get a RP as you suggest, and see what happens early on.  If they do well, maybe they will add at the deadline.  If not, they will likely play a lot of kids.  If they don't, I think some veterans will be dealt and some degree of rebuild will occur.  It almost has to since Mahle, Gray, and Maeda are all gone in 24 unless they extend them which will be difficult in this market given the contracts for pitchers that are being handed out.  It is going to be an interesting year I think as things could go in a number of directions.  

I know Turner is old and started out really slow last year, then came on hot in the second half, but I would rather have him by a mile.   Admittedly, I hate the Gallo signing, but still -- give me Turner any day of the week and twice on Sunday.  I believe the Twins overpaid by a lot on Gallo.  

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8 minutes ago, bap3141 said:

I know Turner is old and started out really slow last year, then came on hot in the second half, but I would rather have him by a mile.   Admittedly, I hate the Gallo signing, but still -- give me Turner any day of the week and twice on Sunday.  I believe the Twins overpaid by a lot on Gallo.  

Where is Turner playing on this team? Who cares about the money? They are sitting on tens of millions of budget.

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2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The injury excuse certainly has merit - but only for part of the Twins’ problems last year. Poor fundamentals, poor in-game management, spotty situational hitting and pitching, lack of improvement throughout the season, etc. are just as important reasons for the poor finish.

As a small/mid-market team, we will never compete for a pennant unless we do all those things well. Never. We can never stack our team so deeply to overcome poor performance in those areas. So it doesn’t matter if we resigned Correa, or any other big name -they’d help, but just adding one or two  of them is not sufficient.

We’ve had three “big” additions and two “big” subtractions. Re the additions, Vasquez was an excellent pick-up, Farmer will not move the dial, Gallo was a Hail Mary. The losses of Correa and Urshela are much more significant.  There is no way this team on a positional player basis is better today than at the end of the year.

So the strategy basically is:

1. Get people healthy. 
2. Hope people have better seasons or improve. 
3. Count on the additions of Mahle and Maeda to make a distinguishable difference.

I get the rationale that we can’t waste the last year of Gray, Maeda and Mahle being here (and it’s absolutely the last year for at least two of them).  But this roster is not built to compete for a pennant, let alone our miserable division, unless they improve considerable in the little things. I have no confidence that this team has the managerial or veteran leadership to make a big jump in these areas.

Also, this team, especially any day Buxton is not playing, will be boring to watch. Farmer, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco? I’m asleep just thinking about it. They will be unbearable to watch if they throw the ball around or continue to struggle with the fundamentals.  

 

 

I think the team does improve, by a lot if they stay healthy -- however, enough to offset the loss of Correa?  Possibly, but highly unlikely.  Good teams often have good luck with injuries as well. 

 

However, that is a LOT to ask -- because every team has injuries, and now this team has a lot of guys with injury history.  And their biggest impact bat is lucky to play 100 games.  I guess there is room for optimism if they stay healthy, but, again that is a big "if" and... they still needed to add a bonified ace, shortstop, and right handed power bat in free agency.  In my opinion, they just don't have enough horses. 

 

They NEED everyone to play at their peaks and have career years and health.  Long odds.  In order to do that, some of these guys need to rebound (Gallo, Kepler, Polanco, even Vazquez on offense, Pagan), have better health (Gray, Buxton, Kepler, Maeda, Ober, Alcala, Kiriloff, Mahle, Jeffers, ) and break out (Kiriloff, Garlick, Larnach) and continue to improve (Gordon, Miranda, Thielbar, Jax).  And then young breakouts like Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran and Miranda need to continue their high production.  

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8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where is Turner playing on this team? Who cares about the money? They are sitting on tens of millions of budget.

He could DH, easy.  Spell Miranda at 3B. Unless they make another move, the extra OF is going to be a DH also.  And just because they have extra money, doesn't mean you overpay for a player like Gallo. 

Honestly, I would have rather had J.D. Martinez over both of them. 

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8 fWAR lost in free agency and trade:

Correa (4.4), Urshela (2.4), Bundy (0.7), Archer (0.5) 

3.6 fWAR recovered in free agency and trade:

Vazquez (1.6) Gallo (0.6) Farmer (1.4)

Royce Lewis is not coming back to save the day. We will be lucky to see him before August 1. Even then he’ll be rushed back with little to no minor league rehab time. Kirilloff underwent a last resort surgery that is unheard of for a professional baseball player. This is a 90+ loss team as it’s current constructed.

What now? Choose a path, as @Mike Sixelfamously says. They have to deplete the farm system even more, making 2 or 3 trades for MLB players. Or decide to build for 2024+ and trade away Maeda, Gray, Arraez, etc. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

8 fWAR lost in free agency and trade:

Correa (4.4), Urshela (2.4), Bundy (0.7), Archer (0.5) 

3.6 fWAR recovered in free agency and trade:

Vazquez (1.6) Gallo (0.6) Farmer (1.4)

Royce Lewis is not coming back to save the day. We will be lucky to see him before August 1. Even then he’ll be rushed back with little to no minor league rehab time. Kirilloff underwent a last resort surgery that is unheard of for a professional baseball player. This is a 90+ loss team as it’s current constructed.

What now? Choose a path, as @Mike Sixelfamously says. They have to deplete the farm system even more, making 2 or 3 trades for MLB players. Or decide to build for 2024+ and trade away Maeda, Gray, Arraez, etc. 

 

An argument can be made they will get that back and more with a healthy roster.  There is still plenty of time to make some moves, but it is looking more and more like they will stand with what they have and make a go at it.

I am probably more positive than most.  With a healthy team as constructed, .500 is reasonable.  If Maeda, Mahle exceed and a couple of the kids jump out, this could be a playoff team.

(If Buxton decides to stay healthy for 125 games, who knows...)

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7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

What now? Choose a path, as @Mike Sixelfamously says. They have to deplete the farm system even more, making 2 or 3 trades for MLB players. Or decide to build for 2024+ and trade away Maeda, Gray, Arraez, etc

First I want nothing to do with this FO office and a rebuild.

I have said it before but will say it again, I don't believe they are getting a starting pitcher and don't think they should. They have Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober in the top 4 and need to continue to establish starters out of the minors. If that isn't a good enough top 4 to compete in this division then this FO has failed. What have they traded away to get Gray and Mahle and we want to trade more away to make up for that? No, doesn't make sense. That is way going after Rodon didn't make much sense either, unless the play was to trade Gray or Mahle after signing him.

Sure if they want to trade scraps for a Chris Sale, somebody with possible huge upside then I say fine, lets stack him with Ober and what happens.

They need to find a high price vet in a offensive position that is still good and go get him (Arenado/GoldSchimdt type) don't know if one exists but that is what they need to be looking for.

 

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There's definitely an argument to make regarding a healthy roster that's been decimated by injuries the last two seasons.  But that's likely also the riskiest approach.  At this point, there aren't a lot of options to fill needs that are still outstanding on this team, let alone depth moves.  That puts the FO in a sort of no-man's land, which is at least partially their own doing.  A healthy roster could be quite competitive for the division but little else.  Another injury plagued season and it probably doesn't matter one way or another.

At this point, I'm not really sure what the answer is.

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Hard to say where this goes.  They have several players with questionable health.  Buxton / Mahle / Kirilloff / and Lewis.  Then, they have a few guys either looking to prove themselves or bounce back from poor performance.  Lopez and Gallo for bounce back candidates.  Larnach / Wallner / Varland / SWR / Moran and we could include Martin in looking to establish themselves.  Maeda and Alcala looking to reestablish themselves after long injuries.

There are 5 players I would count on.  Arraez / Polanco / Vazquez / Gray and Duran.  Every team has question marks but this thing could swing pretty dramatically one way or the other.  There is no short-term answer with this many question marks.  They will have to see if Miranda can handle 3B and determine if Kirilloff's wrist is repaired.  Then, they have to give Larnach / Wallner / Varland / SWR / Martin and Moran an opportunity to stick over the course of the season.   Of course, when will Lewis return and is he the SS going forward.  2024 was very going to be very uncertain with or without Correa.  The good news is there is plenty of potential and it will be interesting to watch unfold.

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I just think this is wildly optimistic. This is a bad team and we've subtracted from it. If healthy, it's still a bad team. Pitching is an absolute mess with no plans to fix it. We're going to keep running out starters for 4-5 innings, and then hope our bullpen can keep the Twins in the game. They won't. They aren't just one move away. I suspect that there are philosophical issues that will keep them from building a competent pitching pipeline, they don't know how to spend in free agency, and they usually are on the losing side of trades. Even if we add Lopez, we're still probably a sub-.500 team.

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You raise a very good question, Mike. Basically we're looking at where we are and where we are going, near future & beyond. Where are we as far as quality depth goes and fill where we are deficient, via draft, trade or FA. 

PRESENT, where we're at in CF (3) Buxton, Gordon & Celestino. LH corner OF bats (6)Kepler, Gordon, Gallo, Larnach, Kiriloff and Wallner . RH corner OF bats-(2) Celestino & Garlick

SS (0); 3B (1) Miranda; 2B (1) Polanco; 1B (3) Arraez, Miranda and Kiriloff; catcher (2) Vazquez & Jeffers. Utility (1) Farmer.

SP (3) Gray, Mahle and Ryan; spot SP/ long relief (6)  Maeda, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR and Sands; short relief (6)   Duran, Lopez, Jax, Theilbar, Alcala & Moran

Where we need to be- As you should see our greatest need is where we need to have our greatest depth, SS. Because of Farmers inability to hit RHPs (which we face 80% of the time or more) he is just a band aid. We really need a profiled SS that can hit RHPs. My suggestion is Luis Guillorme if you want to know more about him go to my thread  SS- Maybe a Trade? Nov.29 or watch this                             

More regularly he can bat better his #s get. While Guillorme should get the lion share at SS, Farmer would be platooning & play utility.

While we have only  3 reliable SPs, we have 5 reliable spot starters plus add Sands in long relief to fill the middle innings to keep the rotation & short relief strong & rested. But because of management's mindset of ignoring our greatest pitching asset (long relief), we'll need at least another SP (Marquez, a MIA SP) & at least another short RP (Rogers, Fulmer)

While we face RHPs at least 80% of the time, a RH power hitter that can hit would be nice because  we have so few, my suggestion is Nelly Cruz but there are others.

 Prospects - SS- Lewis, Lee & Martin could all see time in '23 MLB & play anywhere in the INF, Miller is promising. Julien too should see playing time up here. Our INF looks pretty promising. CF- we have E Rod, although we are sitting pretty well for some time, E Rod would be a welcoming arrival if he can stick there.

Catching - we have 0, my hope is that Noah Cardenas can eventually step up  & thrive on the MLB level but it is far off if ever. Unlike you Mike I have no confidence in Jeffers. He's above avg. framer (which can soon be obsolete), no arm, poor blocker and has become a disciple of this régime (launch angle, etc) thus going in the same path as Sano. So we desperately need a great catching prospect, my selection is Endy Rodriguez (PIT).

Now is the time to evaluate our pitching pipeline that we were expecting to crank out front-line SPs. What has the pipeline produced after 7 years? RPs- Duran, great finally, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar, not bad. Graterol & Rogers are pretty good but gone. SPs- Dobnak, 2 years of development; Ober, spot starter, Not very promising except a few BP pieces. Although they have tweaked quite a few pitchers on the MLB level, IMO the development isn't there.

So what's my point? We can't trust this pipeline to produce the front-line SPs that we need. We can pick up BP piece & RH power bat via FA, but viable SS, front-line SP & MLB ready catching prospect, we can only find via trade. Marquez & Guillorme are cheap others are not. Who can we use as trade bait?

LH OF bats are a luxury. Some teams don't have 1, a some have 1, fewer yet have more than 1. Yet  the Twins have 6 now so it absolutely doesn't make sense for signing Gallo which we can't flip until June. All are below their true trade value, Walner is closest to his true trade value. But with this excess we can easily trade from.

We should also trade someone who's at their highest point that can be replaced. I put Arraez & Jeffers in this class. I'd love to have picked Narvaez & have Jeffers more available to trade. These 2 can offer the most value in a trade. Who shouldn't be trade bait. Any promising SS, CF or SP prospect.

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At this point, don't see alot of options that move the needle much. There may be a few players/pitchers to add to provide some depth and add ability to manage injuries. I would rather see Twins young players get opportunity-Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Julien, eventually Lewis, Martin, Varland, SWR, Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovic, others I am forgetting.

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1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I just think this is wildly optimistic. This is a bad team and we've subtracted from it. If healthy, it's still a bad team. Pitching is an absolute mess with no plans to fix it. We're going to keep running out starters for 4-5 innings, and then hope our bullpen can keep the Twins in the game. They won't. They aren't just one move away. I suspect that there are philosophical issues that will keep them from building a competent pitching pipeline, they don't know how to spend in free agency, and they usually are on the losing side of trades. Even if we add Lopez, we're still probably a sub-.500 team.

I think this is their plan ..... Not what I'd have done. But we are where we are. Now what?

I would start over, but I don't think that's their plan. 

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17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think this is their plan ..... Not what I'd have done. But we are where we are. Now what?

I would start over, but I don't think that's their plan. 

I would not say they need to start over because several the guys that can be the solution are here.  However, that's just semantics.  I definitely agree in concept.  The old core of position players was simply not good enough and the pitching pretty much nonexistent.  Where we go from here is to transition to a new core.  

Infielders: Miranda / Lewis / Lee and Kirilloff if the wrist surgery is successful.

Utility players: Gordon / Martin and probably Julien

OFers: Buxton / Larnach / Wallner and eventually Rodriquez.  

SP:  Ryan / Ober and fill the rest between Varland / SWR / Prielipp / Raya and Festa.  

RP:  Duran / Alcala are penciled in for the next few year.  Jax and Moran are probable.  Megill has a decent shot at becoming a solid RP as well.  From there fill between the myriad of arms we have in the system and free agency.  Hopefully Canterino gets healthy and plays a significant role in the pitching staff.

This process would be aided if they can get something for Kepler.  Trading Arraez or Polanco would add to the cause.  Ideally, the Twins take a chapter out of the play books of Oakland / Tampa and Cleveland and trade for MLB ready talent. Gray or Mahle could also be moved depending on where the team sits in late July.
 

 

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1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I would not say they need to start over because several the guys that can be the solution are here.  However, that's just semantics.  I definitely agree in concept.  The old core of position players was simply not good enough and the pitching pretty much nonexistent.  Where we go from here is to transition to a new core.  

Infielders: Miranda / Lewis / Lee and Kirilloff if the wrist surgery is successful.

Utility players: Gordon / Martin and probably Julien

OFers: Buxton / Larnach / Wallner and eventually Rodriquez.  

SP:  Ryan / Ober and fill the rest between Varland / SWR / Prielipp / Raya and Festa.  

RP:  Duran / Alcala are penciled in for the next few year.  Jax and Moran are probable.  Megill has a decent shot at becoming a solid RP as well.  From there fill between the myriad of arms we have in the system and free agency.  Hopefully Canterino gets healthy and plays a significant role in the pitching staff.

This process would be aided if they can get something for Kepler.  Trading Arraez or Polanco would add to the cause.  Ideally, the Twins take a chapter out of the play books of Oakland / Tampa and Cleveland and trade for MLB ready talent. Gray or Mahle could also be moved depending on where the team sits in late July.
 

 

As much as I'd hate it, this is what I'd do. I agree, they actually have a very good nucleus coming. I want them aiming for 2-7 years from now. 

Even trading off a few players might not matter this year, if their replacements are healthy. 

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I think we should have been in full rebuild last year,  but that option is now gone.   Prospects are prospects but it will be disappointing if 1 of Petty, Hajjar, or Povich become a #1 or #2.  Steer and Encarnacion Strand could also become major players in the future.  I really liked Steer.  

Draft pick wise though we really weren't hurt that much because of being able to jump up in the 1st round.  Effectively signing Gallo we are either trying to rebuild our farm prospects or trying to maneuver pieces to help this year.  I don't think we have enough to go all out this year.  

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Good post. I generally concur with all of it, although I do expect them to deal an outfielder. They are currently carrying nine outfielders on the 40 man. Something has gotta give. I suppose Contreras and/or Garlick could be waiver candidates if they make another signing.

I think they'll try to trade for a SP that has control beyond this year and I think they'll sign a half-way decent RP (Fulmer is still available) and then add some depth pieces on minor league deals.

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On 12/18/2022 at 4:56 PM, baul0010 said:

I think that is very optimistic at best.  Someone is the division will get to 88/90 wins.  I'd bet on Cleveland and that would put us at 83 to 85 wis .  No chance of that happening.  We won't get a wildcard spot.  I can't see us improving by 5 to 7 wins with losing Correa and better health.  But, here's hoping!  It's been a lousy couple of years and it would be great to be better.

I dont see 85 wins.  The new schedule makes them play everybody and play the weak AL Central teams less.  Big problem for a weak Twins team.

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