Can Joey Gallo Rebound from Rock-Bottom in Minnesota?

[AceWrigley]

Oh, and not to add insult to injury here, but The $11 million Gallo will make represents the most he will have made in one season.

[AceWrigley]

Hey wait a minute, did you know Gallo can play third base?

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Saw this on TD....

Never....

[singlesoverwalks]

Vía Fangraphs, here are the lowest average seasons from 1980 to 2002, minimum 350 PA (link below). A lot of disastrous years for large men like Rob Deer, Chris Davis, Adam Dunn, and Logan Morrison. Most of the players on this list never recovered; most who did were (or are) defense-first catchers.

Did any of the Gallo-like sluggers ever make it back to usefulness? Yeah. Adam Dunn in 2012 hit .219 with 41 home runs a year after hitting .159 with 11 HR. And Rob Deer in 1992 hit .247 with 32 home runs a year after his legendary 1991, when he hit .179 (which a lot of players did worse than in 2021 and 2022).

So is it possible? Yeah. It's not the prevailing trend, but we can hope for a 2012 Dunn or a 1992 Rob Deer. It feels weird saying that because those are two of my least favorite players ever, but, well, Gallo is a Twin now. This is what we've got.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=1980&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1980-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=14,a

[jimbo92107]

"Signing Gallo is hardly a worthwhile signature move of the offseason, but it does represent the first true effort by the front office to raise the 2023 team's ceiling, as opposed to filling holes and bolstering its floor. We need more of that going forward."

Great article on what should not really be such a controversial topic. First, Gallo probably is working with a professional trainer to get into the proverbial "best shape of his life." Every veteran after a slump year wants to come back like Carl Yastrzemski, but not all of them are willing to suffer at the hands of a sadistic Romanian gymnastics coach. The closest comp probably is a strict palates coach. I'm guessing Gallo has hired somebody like that. 

As for Gallo's career so far, all you need do is look at his average WAR score. Is it higher or lower than, say, Kepler's? Not even close, Gallo is a much more valuable player, and it sounds like a slightly better fielder. He's highly motivated for a comeback year, his average WAR is better than all but Buxton's. 

My only real objection is that he'll be logjamming all the rooks and AAA guys trying to make their first MLB roster. If Gallo returns to form, then I will disavow all opinions on this matter. In ten seconds, this message will go poof! Unless the poof isn't working right now...

[ToriiRules!!]

No

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Not the final move.  Not even close.   Let it play out.  Opening day is a long way away. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

By long time veteran you mean an elite defensive OF who has solid experience playing all 3 OF positions?  Umm... sure.

Before you respond:  He is an elite defensive OF.  He should play more CF then he already has, but he has spent a lot of time on the corners as well.  He also has 90+ games at 1B and 3B.  The guy is a defensive stud.  Now you can argue semantics, but there is a definite possibility that he is Buxton's insurance policy.  Doesn't matter if you agree, it is a possibility.

His other positional flexibility fits right into what the Twins look for as well.     

Sure. He might be. He also might be the guy that hasn't played center for some reason..... Which is very different than a guy moving to first base. I agree, his defense is one reason he's in Minnesota. I don't understand how pointing out he hasn't played center is so bad..   

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Martinez had a 117 OPS+ and 119 wRC+ last year. You were quite clear that that isn't good enough for Gallo to be considered good while he was in Texas also winning gold gloves. Is it just the right handedness that makes JD the better add despite you not feeling those batting numbers are good and him being a DH only at this point in his career?

Yes, I'm just being sarcastic. Neither guy would've been a top choice for me. But if we're going to say Gallo has never had sustained success in the majors that would lead to any hope at all of him being serviceable (and there's literally hundreds of comments over the last 24 hours suggesting exactly that) we shouldn't be sad when we don't sign a guy who put up the same types of numbers. At this point it's simply "we don't like low BA, high power batters and that's that." Which is fine. But let's at least admit that the baseball industry is more than ok with low BA, high power batters, and that we simply don't like the modern game.

Let's compare JD Martinez to Joey Gallo.

Last year. Last 4 years. Career. Whatever.

Please. Let's do a comparison. Martinez is 36, and might be in decline, but his CAREER OPS is higher than every year of Gallo's career except 2019...a 300 PA year for Gallo BTW.

And Martinez OPS isn't built solely on walks and a few HRs. Joey Gallo can't hold Martinez' jock as a hitter.

 

 

[Greglw3]

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I still think it is a poor signing by the FO. Those SO's are rally killers.

I’ve been no fan of the FO for last 2+ years so I see your point. I’m being hopeful while also quite skeptical. I’ve been watching their offseason too long and except 2019, they seem totally overmatched by almost all other MOs

[theBOMisthebomb]

9 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I imagine this will get torn apart, but oh well...

I really like this move.  I think the Twins maybe overpaid a bit, but he should bring value to this team, on both offense and defense.  I have mentioned this numerous times that this guy would be the ones the Twins should take a flier on.  He is another guy the change in shift rules should really help.  He can also play CF and a little 1B.

An outfield of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler would be the best defensive outfield in baseball.  That is nothing to sneeze at.  (Still waiting for an indication Kepler will be traded).  He is not the second coming, but he does raise the floor.  You know what you are getting here.

I asked on the main Gallo thread for justification for Gallo being a plus defender because he was 95th with -3 OAA amongst 125 qualified outfielders. I received one response pulling some defensive metrics that showed Gallo as a fielder in a more positive light than OAA. Does Gallo possibly get "tall guy bonus points" for being 6' 5" by those not using defensive metrics? It will be interesting what my (admittedly unreliable) eye test says about Gallo's defense.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

5 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

"Signing Gallo is hardly a worthwhile signature move of the offseason, but it does represent the first true effort by the front office to raise the 2023 team's ceiling, as opposed to filling holes and bolstering its floor. We need more of that going forward."

Great article on what should not really be such a controversial topic. First, Gallo probably is working with a professional trainer to get into the proverbial "best shape of his life." Every veteran after a slump year wants to come back like Carl Yastrzemski, but not all of them are willing to suffer at the hands of a sadistic Romanian gymnastics coach. The closest comp probably is a strict palates coach. I'm guessing Gallo has hired somebody like that. 

As for Gallo's career so far, all you need do is look at his average WAR score. Is it higher or lower than, say, Kepler's? Not even close, Gallo is a much more valuable player, and it sounds like a slightly better fielder. He's highly motivated for a comeback year, his average WAR is better than all but Buxton's. 

My only real objection is that he'll be logjamming all the rooks and AAA guys trying to make their first MLB roster. If Gallo returns to form, then I will disavow all opinions on this matter. In ten seconds, this message will go poof! Unless the poof isn't working right now...

Where are you getting those WAR numbers? Baseball Reference has Kepler ahead on career WAR 16.9 to 14.7 and Kepler ahead on career WAA 5.5 to 5.2. Fangraphs career WAR has Kepler at 16.0 and 15.1 for Gallo . For fielding, OAA favors Kepler for 2022 and overall career. I want to believe the Gallo defenders, I don't know where these numbers are to justify that Gallo is much more valuable than Kepler and a better fielder. 

[Karbo]

I wonder if they are going to try him at 1st base some?

[awmonahan]

We can argue that the numbers used to be good. Watching them come about, is going to be ugly, especially as he struggles to build back up to his peak. I'd have rather had JD Martinez for that money, but it's hard to beat the Dodgers.

[baul0010]

16 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Ignore the $11 million (which is an absurd amount).......what hole does he fill on this team?   This is the most bizarre nonsensical signing I can remember.

Sano isn't here.  We need someone to have 3 strikeout games to drive us crazy!

[Fezig]

17 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Ignore the $11 million (which is an absurd amount).......what hole does he fill on this team?   This is the most bizarre nonsensical signing I can remember.

The Twins needed someone to fill the excessive strikeout void that was created when Sano wasn't resigned.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Let's compare JD Martinez to Joey Gallo.

Last year. Last 4 years. Career. Whatever.

Please. Let's do a comparison. Martinez is 36, and might be in decline, but his CAREER OPS is higher than every year of Gallo's career except 2019...a 300 PA year for Gallo BTW.

And Martinez OPS isn't built solely on walks and a few HRs. Joey Gallo can't hold Martinez' jock as a hitter.

 

 

I'd love to do a comparison between these 2 players and their chances of helping the 2023 MN Twins, thank you!

JD Martinez OPS+ his last full 4 seasons: 173, 139, 128, 117
JD Martinez wRC+ his last full 4 season: 170, 139, 127, 119
JD Martinez HRs his last full 4 seasons: 43, 26, 28, 16
I think it's pretty fair to say he's in decline. If he keeps at his current pace he'll be around 105/106 in OPS+ or wRC+ in 2023, with maybe double digit HRs. So, ever so slightly better than a league average hitter with no real power, and no speed. As a DH only. Which means he has negative defensive value.

I've already done the Gallo stats multiple times so I'll save some space on him. 17% better than league average over his time in Texas. Way below league average in his time in NY and LA.

Career fWAR for Martinez: 26.5 in 12 seasons, 1409 games
Career fWAR for Gallo: 15.1 in 8 seasons, 752 games (he only played 53 games combined his first 2 years as he was breaking into the bigs)

Career bWAR for Martinez: 27.9
Career bWAR for Gallo: 14.7

Martinez: 2.2 fWAR per season, .02 per game. 2.3 bWAR per season, .02 per game
Gallo: 1.9 fWAR per season, .02 per game, 1.8 bWAR per season, .02 per game
It's almost like Gallo's defense meant a little and he isn't 100% relying on his bat to provide value to a team.

And if you do their WAR starting in their first full season it's JD with 27.5 bWAR in 11 seasons (2.5 per), 25.4 fWAR (2.3 per). And Gallo at 14.8 bWAR in 6 seasons (2.5 per), 15.2 fWAR (2.5 per). But that can't be right. JD is so clearly better at batting average so he's got to have been way more valuable. But that says overall they've both been 2.5 win players over their careers. Analytics ruining the game again!

Nobody can argue Martinez had a significantly better bat. He's been one of the best hitters in all of baseball for the last 8 years. But he's not that guy anymore. Expecting him to be much more than league average with the bat in 2023 would be quite the gamble. And the batter's box is quite literally the only place he provides any sort of value to a team.

The Gallo situation remains the same. If he's Texas Gallo he can provide a great deal of value. If he's NY or LA Gallo they just set $11 million on fire. He was Texas Gallo for way longer than he was NY or LA Gallo, and he'll be 29 all of next season, not 36. I'd say that gives him a slightly better chance of bouncing back than JD suddenly turning back into 2018 JD.

I'm sorry I'm not interested in the name recognition of JD Martinez as a righty bench bat for $10 million. Or do you want to lock up the DH spot every day for a league average hitter? You said Gallo wasn't "good to great" during his 2017 to 2021 stretch in Texas. His numbers then were better than would be reasonable to assume JD will have in 2023. So which is it? Are those numbers good or not? 

Joey Gallo is never going to be a high BA guy. That's not fun to watch, and is extremely frustrating. I agree. I've said many times on these boards that I dislike the 3 true outcome style of play. I've said many times over the last couple days that I wouldn't have given Gallo $11 million. But modern baseball believes you can have a guy or 2 like Gallo in your lineup and succeed. They believe the HRs outweigh the BA and Ks. He's also one of the better corner outfield defenders in baseball. I wouldn't give Gallo $11 million, but I'd take his defense and upside over JD's DH only, league average bat for $10 million. Even if JD hits .280 and Gallo hits .200.

I know BA is still a massive sticking point with people, and JD's name is a lot more prestigious. But if the discussion is truly about who has the better chance to provide overall value to the 2023 MN Twins, it's a really easy decision for me. Gallo has the much better chance because he plays defense and it's a question of a 1 year drop verse a 3 year steady decline of a 36 year old. I don't want a lineup full of Gallo/Sano types, but I'm ok with 1 in the lineup, especially if they play gold glove defense and have hit 40 homeruns in a season twice (with another season of 38).

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Oh, and not to add insult to injury here, but The $11 million Gallo will make represents the most he will have made in one season.

You can't compare pre-arb and arb years to the free agent market. The arbitration system is literally designed to pay people less than they're worth. The fact that he's making $1 million more than last year, and that 1 WAR is going for a bout $10 million on the market this year, says that deal wasn't too outrageous. Even if I wouldn't have given him 11 (I was on record literally minutes before he signed saying I'd take him for less than 10). They're basically betting he's somewhere between his Texas self and his NY/LA self and is worth about 1.1 WAR in 2023.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

I asked on the main Gallo thread for justification for Gallo being a plus defender because he was 95th with -3 OAA amongst 125 qualified outfielders. I received one response pulling some defensive metrics that showed Gallo as a fielder in a more positive light than OAA. Does Gallo possibly get "tall guy bonus points" for being 6' 5" by those not using defensive metrics? It will be interesting what my (admittedly unreliable) eye test says about Gallo's defense.  

No, he doesn't get tall guy points. And if he does, they're only slightly more for being 6'5" than Kepler gets for being 6'4". He's much like Kepler in that he takes very good routes with his less than top end speed and is able to contort his body in ways that allow him to make some very nice diving catches. He's got a stronger arm than Kepler, but otherwise they're very much the same type of defender. If you like 6'4" Kepler and the way he defends you'll like the 6'5" Gallo and the way he defends.

[Otaknam]

Why sign another left handed hitting outfielder with so many on the roster already? Also I wonder if they made a run at JD Martinez, who signed w the Dodgers for $10 million. But he probably is looking for a World Series contender, which the FO has ensured the Twins aren’t.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, The_Phantom said:

It’s not just old schoolers rolling their eyes, I think people are finally realizing things like OPS+ make the individual look great but not necessarily the team. Astros have had the fewest strikeouts in the league pretty much every year since 2016 and have dominated the league. Any guesses who had the fewest Ks in 2015? Word champion Royals, that’s who. 

eh. Phillies were league average in Ks this season and made the World Series.

Top 8 teams this season in OPS+ were all playoff teams. 6 of top 8 in OPS+ in 2021 made the playoffs. 2019: 6 of the top 8 in OPS+ made the playoffs. 2018: top 6 in OPS+ all made the playoffs. (I skipped 2020 because the smaller sample size and expanded playoffs made it an outlier and a poor comp to the other seasons, but 6 of the top 8 in OPS+ made the playoffs then too) So I think OPS+ still says plenty about team success.

If Gallo gets back to his Texas form, he'll be a useful player and could add more to the team than Kepler, whose spot he appears to be taking. There's good reasons to think he'll have a better chance than JD Martinez to recover his form (I think it's very possible they'll be close to each other in production at the plate, with Martinez having a small rebound and Gallo having a significant one) and he does add value in the field and Martinez does not. (Martinez might also be a detriment in the clubhouse?) But Martinez would potentially fill a need for right-handed slugging that the Twins are still short on.

I'm not sure I want Martinez, but I would have understood it. I still don't understand the Gallo signing very well outside of a "$@*%&, we need to sign someone!!!" move.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

But he has played it.  Not saying he will, but he very well could.

Please remind me: how many innings did Arraez have at 1B prior to the season?

Sure he’s played CF. If he’s an $11M 4th outfielder who gives Celestino time in AAA, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

OAA paints a different picture than “elite fielder”. Not sure I believe that stat, but it’s the best perspective I have. Gold gloves are typically hitting awards, more than fielding awards, but reputation does mean something. For his career he has a 0 OAA, in 2022 -3 or -2 in LF and RF, 2021 he was +6 in RF and 0 in left. 2019 he was 0 in CF. I’ll take league average fielding or better if he hits like he did prior to 2022.

the challenge is, outfielders need to HIT, and 2022 was when they installed the Manfred ball. There’s no indication the Manfred ball is going away. The Manfred ball sapped power across the league. From 6776 home runs league wide in 2019 to 5215 in 2022. 23% decrease in dingers. Maybe Gallo banks a bunch of doubles off the limestone, but man I’m skeptical.

can he rebound? Sure, it’s possible. Will he? Doubtful. 
 

what are the other moves that come with it? Does he replace Kepler? Larnach? Celestino? There’s a few plausible outcomes here that depend greatly on return from trade. I’m skeptical 

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Ignore the $11 million (which is an absurd amount).......what hole does he fill on this team?   This is the most bizarre nonsensical signing I can remember.

Do you think the best offer he had was $6M and the twins offered him $11M.  Have you seen the absurd contracts this off-season?  Then, think role not hole. Back-up to CF is very important.  Back-up to 1B which could be significant if Kirilloff's injury delays his return or limits his playing time.  Replacement for Kepler and defensive replacement.  It's also notable that his lifetime splits against LH pitching are pretty close to RH pitching.  Plus, this is a two-time all-star.  I have no idea if he rebounds but there is obviously huge upside.  

Let's say the season goes the way most folks here are predicting, and he returns to form.  Huge return at the deadline.  I scratched my head at first but it's not too hard to see why they did this deal, especially if they are certain they can move Kepler.  Add whatever return they get for Kepler to the plus side of the column, and it won't be scraps, this signing is not that hard to understand.  

[strumdatjag]

Batting Average and OBP are not just “Old School”.   MLB deadened the ball and is removing the shifts.   This will increase the need for base runners and infielders with speed to get to the ball.   I like thar Gallo has some speed.   But I believe that low-average batters with high strike-out numbers (even with decent walk numbers) will not be rewarded in the current environment.  The  Twins should not try to rebuild a Bomba Squad.   It’s so 2019.  

[cHawk]

Of course he could rebound in Minnesota. Hell, Nelson Cruz had the best season of his career at 39 years here.

That being said, it’s not likely at all, which is why I strongly dislike the signing. I think we’re most likely going to see him be a Miguel Sanó-type player (with three true outcomes) who makes a good lineup better and a bad lineup worse. And without Correa, we definitely have the latter.

[saviking]

Just an observation from reading this thread and others. This is not a player fans wanted by about a 9-1 margin. That says a lot in it's own right.

I wonder what the response would have been if Gallo came in to play first base and DH.

[SanoMustGo]

10 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

Not the final move.  Not even close.   Let it play out.  Opening day is a long way away. 

It better not be the final move

[Jeff_M]

Quite possibly worst off-season signing of 2022.  Totally lost any confidence left in this front office. Need is pitching, not outfielders, duh.

[William K Johnson]

Martinez signs for a million less.    This is just crazy.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Martinez signs for a million less.    This is just crazy.

Martinez is a DH only. I'm not sure I get the angst over this.