Were the Twins or Padres Hurt More By Last Off-Season's Trade?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's front office might need to shift to trading players to complete the 2023 roster. However, their recent track record with deals isn't spotless. Let's look back at the Twins and Padres trade from last off-season.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

In spring training, the Twins had Taylor Rogers and Jhoan Duran scheduled to be a dominant back-end duo in the Twins' bullpen. On April 7th, the Twins sent Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina. San Diego wanted an upgrade to their bullpen, while the Twins got a controllable starting pitcher and a reliever with late-inning experience. The deal made sense for both teams on paper, but the players involved struggled through much of the season. 

Chris Paddack's Struggles
Paddack's Twins tenure started well as he posted a 3.15 ERA with a 16-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first four starts. Something wasn't right in his fifth start as he allowed three runs while only recording seven outs. He walked off the mound on May 8th and didn't pitch another inning in 2022. In the middle of May, he underwent his second Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Paddack's recovery sidelines him until the middle of next season, but there is hope the Twins can get him back for the stretch run. He is under contract for two more seasons, so the team hopes he can provide value over the end of his team control. 

Emilio Pagan's Struggles
Pagan's first season with the Twins couldn't have gone much worse. In 59 appearances (63 innings), he posted a 4.43 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Minnesota continued to use Pagan in high-leverage situations, even with his struggles. Pagan's -0.4 WAR ranked fourth lowest on the team, with only Yennier Cano, Joe Smith, and Trevor Megill ranking lower. According to Win Probability Added (WPA), Pagan ranked 33rd out of 38 Twins pitchers with a -0.99 WPA. Minnesota tendered Pagan a contract for 2023, which might tie to his improved performance in the second half. In 25 games, he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Barring a trade, Pagan will be part of Minnesota's bullpen in 2023. 

Taylor Rogers' Struggles
Rogers started the year strongly before struggling mightily down the stretch. He posted a 3.82 ERA in the first half with a 0.98 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. San Diego continued to use him in a late-inning role, and he accumulated 26 saves. In July, his performance declined as he allowed ten earned runs on 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings. With the Padres, Rogers was worth -0.68 WPA and a -0.2 WAR. At the beginning of August, the Padres sent Rogers to the Brewers for a package that included Josh Hader. He struggled after the trade with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Relievers work in small sample sizes, and it was the first time Rogers struggled for most of a season. He's left-handed and has a proven track record, so a team will sign him and look for him to bounce back in 2023. 

Rogers is a free agent searching for a new home for 2023, so that portion of the trade is done from the Padres' perspective. Minnesota will hope for an improved performance from Pagan in 2023 and that Paddack can be part of the 2024 rotation. The Twins have a chance to recoup some value, but both teams look like losers at this point. 

Which team was hurt more by the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[ashbury]

I might have been in the minority by thinking Taylor Rogers was a reasonable trade chip; his finger injury in 2021 worried me. What I didn't like was that the return represented an even bigger injury risk based on track record, whose worst case came to fruition almost immediately, plus a reclamation project that didn't really pan out.  So, it was a lose-lose trade, but I see the Twins coming out the worse of the two trading partners, because their trade chip was the more valuable and they wasted it.  Even if Paddack comes back after the surgery, too much time will have ticked off of the team-control clock on him.

[Craig Arko]

Yes.

[Doctor Gast]

It was simply a terrible trade all a way around. Simple misevaluating & mismanaged opposing players by both teams. 

Rogers started great but because of not being used according to his profile he soon faltered (mismanagement). Pagan was misprofiled and thrown into the closer role, Instead of quickly reassessing the situation,  they doubled down (mismanagement).

Paddack hadn't been that great for SD, therefore they were trying to shop him. His arm problem was well known, many teams didn't bite but MN regretfully did. Rooker & Medina were throw ins. I'd have to  when he try trade Rooker long before, when he was worth something.

So who lost the most in the deal? my answer is a resounding MN! If we hadn't made the trade. We'd have Rodgers to win those games that Duffy & Pagan lost for us plus kept us competitive in the rest. SD would have kept Paddack which quickly be lost to TJ and in need for closing if Pagan would be used he'd suffer the same outcome. To me there is no contest.

 

 

[mikelink45]

I need some good news, but this off season has only a catcher to light a fire in fan enthusiasm.  Will that work?  Trade Urshela and sign Turner - bad rumor, worse if true.  

We still have time and the FO likes to work last minute so there is hope. 

[roger]

Who won the trade in 2022?  I would say no one won, but Minnesota lost.

Long-term, good chance that Minnesota gets some value from Paddack.  That would give them the long-term win of a bad deal.

[Otwins]

What about trying to resign Rogers now? Value has to be low and I agree with Doctor Gast that he was mismanaged in San Diego.  He would pitch multiple days in a row and had several outings over 1 inning. Off season he should be refreshed. He is miscast as a closer but could still be a solid late inning reliever if you manage his usage.

[tony&rodney]

The Padres rode Rogers very hard early in the season and burned him up. The trade was poor because the Twins paid for Rogers entire salary and also paid both Paddack and Pagan. The Twins continued use of Pagan demoralized the team. Finally, Rogers was used to acquire Hader. The Twins lost this trade.

[D.C Twins]

Yes

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Yes.

Replied before I saw yours.... great minds and all... :)

[darin617]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Padres rode Rogers very hard early in the season and burned him up. The trade was poor because the Twins paid for Rogers entire salary and also paid both Paddack and Pagan. The Twins continued use of Pagan demoralized the team. Finally, Rogers was used to acquire Hader. The Twins lost this trade.

That's what teams do to pitchers on the last year of the contract. No point in saving them unless you really like the guy and want him back.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, darin617 said:

That's what teams do to pitchers on the last year of the contract. No point in saving them unless you really like the guy and want him back.

Maybe, but I was just saying the Padres did get positive value from the trade.

[Riverbrian]

Both players acquired by the Padres are no longer with the Padres. The players acquired by the Twins are still Twins. 

[darin617]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe, but I was just saying the Padres did get positive value from the trade.

Hopefully the Twins lose their number. Way too many times they have traded away damaged goods and the other team gets burned.

[HerbieFan]

Gross but true.  The Twins may win this trade by attrition only.  Pagan and Paddack are still with the Twins.  Maybe the (likely misguided) hope that Pagan and Paddack may give you SOMETHING means they win.  And now I'm going to take a shower,,,

[MGM4706]

Important comment was how Pagan demoralized his team. When Twins re-signed him that may have signaled Correa the Twins were not serious about winning!!

[Rosterman]

The killer is losing Paddack for absically two seasons. He's still young, so that is a positive.

The other thing I didn't understand was the Twins sending along money. Basically I saw the Twins as NOT feeling Rogers could be the closer, and that he was too expensive.

I was dreaming that it was going to be an even bigger trade, with the Twins including Sano and taking Eric Hosmer (but only part of his contract) and maybe getting Padre catching prospect Luis Campusano in the deal, too. Hosmer might've been a good DH and bench guy, and the Twins would've had their second catcher. I saw mroe value in Sano, as he wasn't injured yet for a full season. Miguel might've loved San Diego and really thrived.

The Twins still have Pagan who COULD rebound, be a tradechip, whatever. Rooker is also gone from the Padres. The only downfall for the Twins was having to pay Rogers salary.

In a minor way, Rogers might've contributed a few extra wins if he was the Twins closer coming out of the gate. I'm still urious to see what kind of contract he will be signing as a free agent. Trevor May got $7m from the A's after an injury plagued no-nothing season.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

 

The other thing I didn't understand was the Twins sending along money. Basically I saw the Twins as NOT feeling Rogers could be the closer, and that he was too expensive.

My guess was that the Padres were at a money wall at the time so creativity was necessary to land a talented bullpen arm. Starter, years of service made Paddack much higher value so the money to pay Rogers evened out the deal and kept the Padres budget inside where that wall was.

Of course... that wall has come down since.  ?

Just a guess of course. 

[Fred]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Both players acquired by the Padres are no longer with the Padres. The players acquired by the Twins are still Twins. 

Is it a good thing that Pagan is still a Twin?

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Fred said:

Is it a good thing that Pagan is still a Twin?

Last year... Not so much.

This year.

(Shouting off in the distance)

What's that?

Hey I gotta Run... I'll get back to ya.  

[C_frommn]

The Twins should look into Taylor Rogers. If anyone knows him it would be Twins staff. If he has a Major issue pass but if it's a Confidence issue, they can definaitely use a Better than they have pitcher in the Pen.

[Jacksson]

Since the Twins had to pay the entire salary for Taylor Rogers to play for San Diego and in return received ONLY:

a starting pitcher with an arm ready to fail,

a journey-man reliever who was/is unable to step up to a more significant role

and a flier on a young, green pitcher with control issues that probably won't amount to anything,

regardless of what the future holds for what the Twins received,

THEY DIDN'T GET NEARLY ENOUGH !!

[adorduan]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:22 PM, Riverbrian said:

Both players acquired by the Padres are no longer with the Padres. The players acquired by the Twins are still Twins. 

I'm not sure that's a good thing... Pagan, ugh...

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, adorduan said:

I'm not sure that's a good thing... Pagan, ugh...

Ugh... Might be Emilio's middle name. 

However, I feel it is important to note that this article is a push poll by asking who was "hurt more".

More importantly... the article is laying out a comparative damage assessment one year later and asking for opinions. Asking one year later is kind of evil when one team traded for an expiring contract while the other team received 3 players with multi years of control. 

So... I feel compelled to say it again. Both players acquired by the Padres are no longer with the Padres. The players acquired by the Twins are still Twins. 

 

[bloomwcjkl]

The Twins lost that trade. Rogers was needed in the bullpen.

We could have played him last year and then just let him go in free agency if we didn't want to pay up.

Pagan may have pitched OK at the end of the season, but he blew some of the critical games as we slipped out of first.

Paddack may or may not pitch again as a Twin. We'll see in 2024.

 

[IA Bean Counter]

The Twins will likely win this trade hands down.  

1. Pagan I think will be a useful reliever next year.   Is August and Sept showed a player that was beginning to figure it out.  

2, The procedure Paddack had is a 12 month recovery time was my understanding with a couple months to ramp up.  We get a full year and a half control and possibly re sign.  

3.  If Medina turns into any type of prospect they win.  

I think Twins win this trade pretty handily, but it was ugly last year.  

[FanSince1961]

Where did the Twins finish?

Where did the Padres finish?

There's your answer.