"Stepping Back" Isn't an Option

[Cody Pirkl]

The offseason has gone far differently than fans or likely the Twins had hoped. After missing on Correa and many of the impact free agents, options are dwindling. One option that simply cannot be considered is rebuilding.

Image courtesy of Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Reports are starting to surface about the possible path of the Twins taking a “step back” in 2023, with players such as Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda starting to draw trade interest. Who could blame teams for asking? It sure appears the Twins had all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket, as just two of the top fifteen free agents remained at the time the Twins got news that their star shortstop had chosen to move to San Francisco.

The twins are left with a strikingly similar roster to their 2022 squad that finished in 3rd place of the soft AL Central, minus their most valuable player of course. Even if they turn to Joey Gallo and trade Max Kepler, it's hard to count on the trade off adding much value unless Gallo rebounds in a major way. With the cost of free agent pitchers and the Twins having three starters set to depart after 2023 in Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, it may become tempting as teams begin offering impressive packages to pry them away. It's easy to look at investments in a new catcher and outfielder and see the intent to compete now, but a lack of further success in acquiring players and some tempting trade offers being dangled could definitely sway a team that still looks to be on the bubble. Unless the Twins have plans to replace one of these arms after trading them, this simply cannot be a solution.

Since the end of the 2010 season, the Twins have made the playoffs three times, being swept out on each occasion. They’ve been above .500 four times in those twelve seasons, including a six-year stretch from 2011 to 2016 in which the team was completely irrelevant. Since winning back-to-back AL Central division titles and appearing to be building steam as an up and coming core in 2019 and 2020, they’ve missed the playoffs twice, including in the inaugural expanded playoff season in 2022.

In short, it sure looks a whole lot like Twins fans have spent the majority of the last twelve years in misery. Their only payoff is back-to-back division titles resulting in an immediate exit from the playoffs. Is that the business model the Twins want to present to their fanbase by entering yet another rebuild? The Twins were already publicly disappointed by fan attendance in 2022. It’s safe to imagine those issues accelerating greatly with any steps back in attempting to compete. They also have a TV network negotiation on the horizon, a transaction the Twins will have little leverage in as the viewership numbers almost certainly crater.

From a pure baseball perspective, the Twins are in the easiest division in baseball with two more teams being admitted to the playoffs in the AL moving forward. They have one of the better rotations on paper that they’ve had in recent years. They still have star power and core contributors such as Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez on the position player side. With just a handful of acquisitions, the Twins could take the projected 78-81 wins they already have currently and easily become competitors. Having spent very little of the assumed $50m or so they had available coming into the offseason, deciding to take the easy way out would be a devastating decision for all parties involved.

The prospect of the Twins actually going this route sounds ridiculous, but you can imagine a situation where they can justify it to themselves. The front office wouldn’t go this route unless they had no concern about losing their jobs. It was very heavily expressed at the end of 2022 that ownership still had faith in Falvey and company. They’ve always operated with an eye on getting value, oftentimes at the expense of acquiring players that actually make the team better.

With the way free agent contracts have blown up on pitchers, this may be the most valuable time in history to trade pitchers such as Gray and Mahle who are only controlled for one year. There could be a scenario where they look at the dwindling free agent market and the likely inflated trade offers they receive and decide to once again side with value over acquiring quality players.

At this point, improving this team is going to hurt and likely draw scrutiny. The majority of impact will have to come from trade at the cost of organizational talent, a disappointing outcome considering the amount of money they should have had to spend on free agents. They did this to themselves though, and the alternative is simply unacceptable in regards to Twins fans who have spent far too much time and money watching a mediocre product. In 2023, a step back simply isn’t an acceptable conclusion.

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[Twinsoholic]

Perhaps the Twins strategy will be to see where they rank in the Central Division in mid July and then, if competitive for 1st place, the Twins can make trades where they take on one or two or even three big contracts given their presumed surplus of salary room. If that is one approach the Twins are considering, then possibly trading Gray or Maeda could make sense if they receive an overpay (everyone wants pitching). 

[Doug Y]

The 2 biggest words you said in this article are “TV Contract.”  You simply cannot step back now with tv contract negotiations looming. You need to to have a competitive team with as many eyes watching your games as you can going into the negotiations. A good TV contract can be a game changer for the future success of the franchise. 

[Linus]

I’ve got news for you. They’ve been stepping back without knowing it. If they blow it up Falvine has to go. You want those guys overseeing a rebuild?

[LewFordLives]

The Twins timing couldn't be worse in regards to their TV contract. Bally's and other regional networks are feeling the pinch of cord cutting.

[Beast]

A step back isn’t an option, it’s an inevitability.

They never had all their eggs in the Correa basket.  They just wanted us to think that.  How do I know?

They offered 10 years 285.  How that relates to historical Twins’ contracts, etc. doesn’t matter.  They weren’t even in the ballpark.

If they put all of their eggs in that basket, they’re completely incompetent.  You can’t reach these heights in the baseball world and be that idiotic.  This was intentional.  It’s a tactic we’ve seen them employ numerous times now.  They “focus” on one player.  Come in second place. Let the whole world know they tried so hard they almost died.  Then “oops, all that’s left is Joey Gallo on a 1 year deal.”

Theres just no way a reasonable person thinks that deal gets the job after seeing all of the other SS deals out there.  They knew it wouldn’t.

Another dead giveaway this was BS from the beginning:  the Pohlads expresses their burning desire to bring Correa back.  They just wanted it so dang badly.  Honestly guys. They’re seriously serious about spending so much money…..Thou doth protest too much.

Looks to me like they’re desperately trying to cut salary and convince fans they’re doing otherwise at the same time.  Aka, swindling us.  There’s a fair amount of people who buy it.  Some even openly gaslight and coerce others through insults into thinking the attempts were legit, and that they’re just geniuses staying the only path the victory.  But, many are rightfully seeing through this charade and are getting fed up.  We’ve watched this same story for 30 years.

They’re dangerously close to decimating this base more than already have.  Levels of fan apathy never before seen here.  Mix that in a bowl with an economy going down the crapper…..that stadium is going to be empty.

 

[Whitey333]

Good comments all.  The FO has played us again.  Many fans are gullible ( yes me included) that things may be changing.  Yes they are for the worse.  This FO has messed up a lot of things.  Not signing Correa was a wise prudent decision.  But letting good mid tier free agents sign with other teams while waiting on Correa is a crucial mistake.  But they have done this a lot.  Wait until most of the quality free agents sign elsewhere and bemoan the fact there aren't too many left to choose from is classic Twins.  Yes we are a gullible lot us Twins fans.  Oh yes we did sign Joey Gallo to a one year 11 mill contract.  He with the .199 career average and a strikeout rate higher than Sano.  Oh please.  What a messed up organization.

[Original_JB]

I think the Pohlads and FO have decided that they really don't own/operate a MLB team as much as they own an "Entertainment Destination" like ValleyFair or MoA's Nickelodean Universe that just happens to have 'professional' baseball as one of the rides/amenities. In doing so, they've disgusted the actual baseball fans, and are now starting to see that no matter how many foods/bars/flashing lights/loud music you add, it's become "been there/done that" for the casual TF visitor, no different than going to the Ren Fest a couple years in a row, then saying 'nothing changes except the price keeps going up', and then stop going. It gets to the point where the cost aspect almost isn't relevant; as others have stated, can't even give tickets away, the value vs. the effort just isn't worth it  --- even for free. 

[GV14218]

38 minutes ago, Doug Y said:

The 2 biggest words you said in this article are “TV Contract.”  You simply cannot step back now with tv contract negotiations looming. You need to to have a competitive team with as many eyes watching your games as you can going into the negotiations. A good TV contract can be a game changer for the future success of the franchise. 

Absolutely right. And a POOR TV contract would be a game changer as well, annually, for years into the future. Remember that bloated Pujols deal with the Angels in 2010? It was in part about beefing up the roster for an impending TV deal negotiation. Overpaying to land Correa could have had the same positive impact. 

[MarcF]

Clearly, the Twins have no intention of stepping back next season. Hell, they just signed Joey Gallo to an $11 million one-year contract. If that isn't a sign of dedication to the future, I don't know what is. He is a career .199 hitter (yes, .199, that's not a typo), and makes contact with the ball almost never. 163 K's last season in 350 ABs. He should be a great addition to the lineup. And fans that get to sit close to home plate are assured of a nice breeze whenever he swings. 

If you didn't think the Twins are desperate, just read the paragraph above. And btw, he only made $10 million last season, so the Twins spent wisely in giving him a raise for a stellar 2022.

[MarcF]

17 minutes ago, GV14218 said:

Absolutely right. And a POOR TV contract would be a game changer as well, annually, for years into the future. Remember that bloated Pujols deal with the Angels in 2010? It was in part about beefing up the roster for an impending TV deal negotiation. Overpaying to land Correa could have had the same positive impact. 

If you love baseball, as I do, but are disgusted with the Twins management, or lack thereof, purchase the MLB.tv season long package. For about $120 you get EVERY MLB game for EVERY team, except the Twins since they are in the local market. It'll relieve stress, and give you far better games, and players, to watch, than what 2023 has in store. I can miss a season of Vazquez behind the plate for Sonny Gray (Mr. 5 Innings). It's your call. Wanna watch Judge, Otani, Verlander, Scherzer, and Bryce Harper, or Joey Gallo?

[sjunisu]

I have not posted on this site in over a year as my criticism of the FO was often met with distain (certainly there were some who were also critical, but a smaller percentage than the cheerleaders for sure).

44 minutes ago, Beast said:

There’s a fair amount of people who buy it.  Some even openly gaslight and coerce others through insults into thinking the attempts were legit, and that they’re just geniuses staying the only path to victory.

Beast points it out perfectly.  Interesting to see the tenor of the site has changed dramatically in 1 yr - despite this FO having the same stripes as previous years.  Falvine is the same today as they were one year ago, 3 years ago, and 5 yrs ago.  They have yet to show a compentcy in any significant aspect of a FO - Trading, Developing Talent, Drafting, or Signing FA.  

Gallo and whomever else follows is just more of the same.

[mikelink45]

A recent look at the AL central asked if anyone wants to win.  The big signings - Benintendi by Sox, Bell by the Guardians.  The rest is a joke - including Gallo.  So do we stay in the middle - not moving forward, not moving backwards.  I just want them to tell us the truth - we are looking at rookies and prospects (trade the vets if that is true) - and let us step back hoping to move forward like the Hrbek/Gaetti days. 

[GOONER759]

They think fans are stupid. Even your average Joe knew it would take 300 plus for Correa. Seems this was a ploy to say we tried thought we had it and while we waited we missed out on the others. For those that think Swanson is still out there forget it. This is a guy who insist on playing 162 and doesn’t believe in resting. Never would be a fit for the way this team is run. 

[Reptevia]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

The Twins timing couldn't be worse in regards to their TV contract. Bally's and other regional networks are feeling the pinch of cord cutting.

This is Minnesota after all. The path of least resistance will be taken. Bally’s will win a modest contract, and a large portion of the fans will still be unable to watch games. It’s getting to the point where I’d almost prefer to stream cricket. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Not sure what the answer is here.  We seem to be stuck in a win now / build for the future mode.  Some trades/FA pickups scream win now.  Some suggest build for the future.

I feel that we may be in the mode of never being good enough to win in the playoffs and never be bad enough to sell off and capture enough prospect capital to build for a true run at the WS.

Part of me says, heck, make a decision one way or the other and jump in feet first.  The only team that seems to be doing it right so far is the Braves IMHO.

[RJA]

The problem with this FO is that they abhor long contracts, especially with pitchers.  They routinely offer fewer years and less money than other teams believing that they have the "know how" to develop their own starters.  The problem with this strategy is, of course, that IF you are not developing starters inhouse, you are perpetually looking to trade for starters with a year or two of control at the expense of your young talent or existing stars.  Or, you dumpster dive for Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker, Happ, Bailey, Hill, and similar "talent." You never have a consistent starting rotation as it, by necessity, changes every year.  If they signed a Rodon or Ray type, and another second tier starter in free agency, you would at least have 3-5 years of stability in the rotation.  Then, IF your young pitchers develop, you have a great problem--a surplus of pitching--that you an then use as trade bait like the Guardians have done.  So, get used to this yearly mantra from the Twins FO that they will pivot and still have a great team, as we will be hearing that for however long the Pohlads reject investing more in their team and this FO keeps patting themselves on the back about how smart and "creative" they are.  Sad situation.

[HerbieFan]

I'm an old school guy.  I admit it.  Relative to fan apathy/attendance.  I wonder if the constant flipping of the 26-man roster makes it hard for fans to "invest" in this team.  I wonder if the complete lack of interesting baseball...Rocco basically just going off his computer printout, 4-5 inning starts, no stealing, no hit and run, the 3-true-outcome approach at the plate, etc., just have made baseball, and especially this team, harder and less interesting to watch.

Twins fans are loyal.  We love to hear about prospects and then see them come to the majors and then be the team we watch on the field.  The constant slipping of players makes that hard to do.  The development of prospects only to see them traded for someone because they have a couple years of team control makes emotionally attaching to a team hard to do.  

The 2000s Twins had so many players beloved by this fan base.  They were successful with players the organization developed.  If the FO really wants the fan base to buy in, both literally and figuratively, I feel like that's the way to go.  

So...no more talk of trading prospects.  Do a better job of developing and coaching them instead.

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, RJA said:

The problem with this FO is that they abhor long contracts, especially with pitchers.  They routinely offer fewer years and less money than other teams believing that they have the "know how" to develop their own starters.  The problem with this strategy is, of course, that IF you are not developing starters inhouse, you are perpetually looking to trade for starters with a year or two of control at the expense of your young talent or existing stars.  Or, you dumpster dive for Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker, Happ, Bailey, Hill, and similar "talent." You never have a consistent starting rotation as it, by necessity, changes every year.  If they signed a Rodon or Ray type, and another second tier starter in free agency, you would at least have 3-5 years of stability in the rotation.  Then, IF your young pitchers develop, you have a great problem--a surplus of pitching--that you an then use as trade bait like the Guardians have done.  So, get used to this yearly mantra from the Twins FO that they will pivot and still have a great team, as we will be hearing that for however long the Pohlads reject investing more in their team and this FO keeps patting themselves on the back about how smart and "creative" they are.  Sad situation.

I have been an advocate of adding a top tier free agent starter this year.  I have done so because they have the financial flexibility now and going forward.  However, try taking a look at how those 2nd tier free agents have produced.  At one point I constructed a table of all the free agent pitchers.  There have been a couple lately that have worked out.  However, suggesting 2nd tier free agents are a good strategy requires you don't know the history of such free.  I guess everyone has forgotten that we had to have Corbin and Bumgardner.  Johnny Cueto had one great year and then sucked, etc.  Avoiding actions with a high probability of failure is not a problem in any context.

[Vanimal46]

Stepping back is always an option with this FO. They’re in no real danger internally of losing their jobs. 

[hitterscount]

The Gallo signing is a joke. The OF didn't get better with this move. Rumors are now really heating up that they are looking to trade Kepler, which I was alright with, but brining in Gallo... why. Kepler is a better player so this makes zero sense which is why it does, the FO is inept. 

Take the 11 million along with the 50 million you are looking to spend  and try and extend Ryan, Mahle  or Gray to stabilize the starting rotation.  How about extending contracts to some of the good arms in the bullpen instead of blowing money on a .199 career hitter that strikes out nearly 50% of his at bats. The OF was horrible heading into spring training and may even be worse today. 

The genius GM's are either incompetent or their hands are tied by the owners...either way 2023 is shaping up to be a disaster. Than they wonder why enthusiasm and attendance is near rock bottom for this team.. look no furtehr than your off season moves.   

 

[KirbyDome89]

45 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been an advocate of adding a top tier free agent starter this year.  I have done so because they have the financial flexibility now and going forward.  However, try taking a look at how those 2nd tier free agents have produced.  At one point I constructed a table of all the free agent pitchers.  There have been a couple lately that have worked out.  However, suggesting 2nd tier free agents are a good strategy requires you don't know the history of such free.  I guess everyone has forgotten that we had to have Corbin and Bumgardner.  Johnny Cueto had one great year and then sucked, etc.  Avoiding actions with a high probability of failure is not a problem in any context.

They didn't suggest it was a good strategy, they suggested it was a necessary one based on the total lack of development and this FO's inability to consistently plug the holes they create year after year. They aren't avoiding actions with a high probability of failure; Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, and Archer were locked into rotation spots the last 2 years. 

[RJA]

I am not quite 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been an advocate of adding a top tier free agent starter this year.  I have done so because they have the financial flexibility now and going forward.  However, try taking a look at how those 2nd tier free agents have produced.  At one point I constructed a table of all the free agent pitchers.  There have been a couple lately that have worked out.  However, suggesting 2nd tier free agents are a good strategy requires you don't know the history of such free.  I guess everyone has forgotten that we had to have Corbin and Bumgardner.  Johnny Cueto had one great year and then sucked, etc.  Avoiding actions with a high probability of failure is not a problem in any context.

I guess I am not quite sure what your point is.  I don't consider Cueto a second tier guy.  I would consider anyone other than a true ace to be second tier and the track record of signings for some of those guys is as good as for top tier guys.  I think you missed my  point.  Sorry.  

[Major League Ready]

51 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They didn't suggest it was a good strategy, they suggested it was a necessary one based on the total lack of development and this FO's inability to consistently plug the holes they create year after year. They aren't avoiding actions with a high probability of failure; Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, and Archer were locked into rotation spots the last 2 years. 

So it's a bad strategy but let's do it anyway because we failed to develop?  Free agency is not an alternative to acquiring young talent via draft or trade.  Free agency even in high revenue markets is a supplement.  Without development, especially in below average markets, there is absolutely no chance of success.  This fanatical focus on fixing the problem by signing free agents is incredibly misguided.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been an advocate of adding a top tier free agent starter this year.  I have done so because they have the financial flexibility now and going forward.  However, try taking a look at how those 2nd tier free agents have produced.  At one point I constructed a table of all the free agent pitchers.  There have been a couple lately that have worked out.  However, suggesting 2nd tier free agents are a good strategy requires you don't know the history of such free.  I guess everyone has forgotten that we had to have Corbin and Bumgardner.  Johnny Cueto had one great year and then sucked, etc.  Avoiding actions with a high probability of failure is not a problem in any context.

How has signing bad players worked? Like Happ, Shoemaker, et. al.? That doesn't work either.

[MGM4706]

Obvious new CEO Joe Pohlad was given one directive as he was given the reins. Don't overspend and keep payroll under last year's. Make a profit under circumstance!

So far A+!

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

So it's a bad strategy but let's do it anyway because we failed to develop?  Free agency is not an alternative to acquiring young talent via draft or trade.  Free agency even in high revenue markets is a supplement.  Without development, especially in below average markets, there is absolutely no chance of success.  This fanatical focus on fixing the problem by signing free agents is incredibly misguided.

Nobody is saying FA is anything other than a supplement. Nobody. You need to understand that, and argue in good faith. It won't fix the development issues, but it can certainly lessen their impact. 

Is the current strategy of signing bottom tier arms anything other than bad? How many years should this club potentially burn waiting for the stars to align as far as developing a staff goes?

[tony&rodney]

Because many of us are diehard Twins fans we wait for something positive to occur. However, Falvine have been less than acceptable at a time when the AL Central has been the weakest in memory. Still, we wait.

[Brandon]

The team entered the offseason with few holes and a solid floor at most positions.  A C and SS are needed.  We got a solid C.  Not sure why we signed Gallo for 11 million….. but anyways we can find a good floor SS maybe Andrus or god forbid we sign Swanson.  I wonder if we are closing in on a trade with Miami involving Kepler and Lopez as part of the trade …..  anyways back on point.  The key for next season is better health.  We just need a SS and some tweaks for next season.  Yes we lost out on CC and 285 million was a low offer.  10/300 should have been the offer at minimum but the Twins did say from the beginning that they wouldn’t be the highest bidder.  With opt outs and what not may have given Correa protection against inflation running rampant.  I think the Twins were competitive till SF got desperate.  They were likely told Correa was about to sign with the Twins …. I wonder if Minnesota offered 10/305 or 310 if he would have signed a while back….

anyway the point is the Twins have a competitive roster if and it’s a big if they are mostly healthy. So they are not going backwards.  

[Doctor Gast]

Totally agree with you Cody. Rebuild is not the answer. The problem is poor drafting, their idea of the best player is big bat/ small glove (Lewis is an exception) and then hoarding them, while key positions lack quality & depth. I do admit that last year was a vast improvement over prior drafts.

Poor player evaluation & profiling which effects the drafting, promoting, rule 5, FA signing and trading. I can throw in poor development and coaching too. Lot of our problems have been injuries which most can be tied to mismanagement. Bad philosophy of focusing on "moonshots" which doesn't mean more prolific in HRs but more in SOs & FOs, while neglecting the other more important aspects of the game.

Therefore the problem hasn't been the players, it has been to to the previous factors. If the previous factors are not addressed then we'll be in continuous rebuild like PIT. PIT knows how to evaluate players but they've had problems to develop them. 

If they start to rebuild & Flavine is not fired then I'm done with the Twins