Carlos Correa: Maybe This Isn't a Bad Thing

[Sherry Cerny]

7 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

This off season is a great example of why MLB needs both a salary cap, and a floor.  Contracts like this will ruin baseball if the trend continues of only the big markets being able to buy teams.  

With that said, it will be a good thing for the Giants for the next 5 years or so.  Then they will have an albatross contract that they can handle, but we would be in trouble having on the books.

ABSOLUTELY this. also watching the Mets just hemmorage Luxury tax, is laughable. 

[Sherry Cerny]

7 hours ago, DKrz56 said:

I normally skip Sherry’s articles….should’ve skipped this one. “Rodon still looking for home” smh…hopefully it will be edited soon. 

what are you talking about? I didn't final edit the article, before posting, my editor did that. Mistakes happen. Someday you will miss out on something fun, or interesting. 

[Sherry Cerny]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I tend to be more on the "pocket protector" side of fans, but the following paragraph is inaccurate:

"The Pohlads didn't "short-change" Correa. They didn't "lowball him." They made him a fair offer based on his age and production. The offer was $285 million over ten years, more per year than the Giants offer but three years shorter. There is nothing the Pohlads did differently than what most fans expected. They threw everything at Correa, minus the kitchen sink."

The Pohlads/FO/whoever you want to say 100% did lowball Correa. The AAV means nothing. The fans expecting the Twins to not have the high offer means nothing. It feeling like a "fair offer" means nothing. Correa got $350 million. The Twins (reportedly) offered him $285 million. 285 being a lot for the Twins doesn't mean it isn't a lowball offer. Comparing Correa to the other SSs of his talent level made it quite clear that 285 had no realistic chance of getting it done. Lindor at 341 and Seager at 325 made it unrealistic. They were $65 million dollars short. Thus a lowball offer.

Now that doesn't mean it's a bad thing they didn't offer him more. It doesn't make it a bad thing they didn't sign him. It can be both a lowball offer and a good thing they didn't sign him. I'm not upset the Twins didn't sign Correa (although I would've liked it, and would've been fine with 10/350 if that's what it took). But I am upset that they seemingly wasted time and effort trying to sign him for a lowball offer while allowing realistic targets to sign elsewhere and leaving themselves with very few free agents worthy of signing in an attempt to jump a team from 70 some wins to 90 some.

The schedule evens out more next year. Yes, they're still in the central and face those teams a lot, but not as much. And more teams get to beat up on the central, and bad teams in general, now instead of having to battle their elite division foes as much. That means the good teams are likely going to win more while the bad teams will likely lose more. The Twins will, in all likelihood, have a higher win total to reach if they want a wild card spot moving forward. They've won 70 some games the last 2 years while facing far more weak opponents throughout the season due to their division, and now they're going to be playing a harder schedule so they need to improve upon the last 2 teams simply to still win 70 some games. I think we all want them to win significantly more than 70 some games. So they've got to do even more to jump up into the 90 win range I think we all want.

My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. Farmer and Vazquez are good enough to maybe keep them in the 70 win range. They're certainly not significant improvements. Especially when you factor in the loss of Correa. Do they even balance him out?

I know the first response of many will be "if they would've stayed healthy," and I agree they were better than a 78 win team last year with better health, but they weren't a 90 win team even with better help. They were a mid-80s win team with better health. Let's say 85 wins. Then they lost a 4 or 5 win player in Correa. I'll only take 3 losses off for that and they're at 82 wins. Let's go with another 4 losses added for the change in schedule (I'm trying to be conservative here and actually expect it to be more like 7 or 8 more losses) and we're down to 78 wins. Farmer and Vazquez make up for those 4 losses maybe? Back to 82 wins assuming the entire roster of injury prone players suddenly have improved health all for the same season. Generally speaking I use 90 wins as the cutoff for any team with a real shot at competing in the playoffs. How do they find 8 more wins? That's my problem with this offseason. They've put themselves in a really tough spot of needing to find 8 more wins while watching a lot of players who would've helped with that sign elsewhere because they were set on the idea that they could get Correa for $285 million when they should've known that was a lowball offer and was never going to cut it.

PS sorry for the long rant there.

HI!!! I love the long rant, do NOT stress it at all. So, you have to bare in mind, that I *think* comparatively, as a small market team, they did do their best. That being said. I could NOT agree more than I do with this statement you made, "My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. " 

SO on point. that is exactly how I feel. I would have preferred giving him 10 years 300-325mm, and I don't know why they didn't? didn't want to pay the luxury tax, what have you - but I full agree that now that is missed time and effort and if I was Swanson, I would not want to come here to be left overs. 

[Whitey333]

I also tend to avoid articles submitted by Sherry.  I should have avoided it too.  What a line of garbage it's filled with plus many inaccuracies.  About the only thing I agree with is being glad twins didn't sign Correa.  IMO this FO is or should be on a very short string.  They have done a couple of good things I will grant you.  But I believe they have almost ruined this franchise. The team is boring, has no identity, plays very poor baseball.  Signing Joey Gallo, yes he of the 199 career average type to a one year contract of 11 million is ludicrous.  

[specialiststeve]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They also lost Urshela, who had a great WPA and decent WAR.......and replaced him with no one so far. 

Actually, they did replace him already. Inhouse with Miranda... who clearly has a higher ceiling and needed to open the spot. I like Urshela a lot but that needed to happen. 

[specialiststeve]

12 hours ago, Sherry Cerny said:

HI!!! I love the long rant, do NOT stress it at all. So, you have to bare in mind, that I *think* comparatively, as a small market team, they did do their best. That being said. I could NOT agree more than I do with this statement you made, "My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. " 

SO on point. that is exactly how I feel. I would have preferred giving him 10 years 300-325mm, and I don't know why they didn't? didn't want to pay the luxury tax, what have you - but I full agree that now that is missed time and effort and if I was Swanson, I would not want to come here to be left overs. 

Need to "read" the numbers! The offer was for more annually than SF .. Their offer was fantastic. That he took the SF offer was disappointing but understandable. Those 10-13 year contracts NEVER pan out... I would be pissed if we DID sign him for that .. Stupid and irresponsible use of resources. 

[Minderbinder]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:57 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

13 years just spreads the money out for cash flow. Correa, Boras and Zaidi themselves don’t expect Correa to be playing in 13 years.

If the length of contract "just spreads the money out for cash flow," then why didn't Boras opt for the Twins' higher AAV?

[Mike Sixel]

On 12/17/2022 at 7:04 AM, specialiststeve said:

Actually, they did replace him already. Inhouse with Miranda... who clearly has a higher ceiling and needed to open the spot. I like Urshela a lot but that needed to happen. 

Miranda was already on the team. Playing at the same time as Urshela. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

If the length of contract "just spreads the money out for cash flow," then why didn't Boras opt for the Twins' higher AAV?

Because they wanted more money. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

55 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

If the length of contract "just spreads the money out for cash flow," then why didn't Boras opt for the Twins' higher AAV?

Because, in the big ticket contracts, the total is what the agent and player care about. AAV matters to the team, total dollars is what the player and agent care about.

Correa wanted the highest dollar amount possible, Bonilla day is fine with him. $28 per or 26, it’s all huge money and plenty to live like a king. The 315 is generational wealth that his grandkids maybe great-grandkids won’t have to work a day in their lives. But to the team that 8 years 315 mil is 39 mil per year vs 26 mil per on 12 years. 13 mil per year gives the team tons of flexibility. They’re paying 315 no matter what.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

If the length of contract "just spreads the money out for cash flow," then why didn't Boras opt for the Twins' higher AAV?

The Twins offer is pretty spread out too. I think you'd have to have very pessimistic forecasts of hyper inflation to prefer $285M to an only slightly more spread out 350. (The new 315 number might be a closer matter, but now it's only 2 years different.)

[specialiststeve]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Miranda was already on the team. Playing at the same time as Urshela. 

Correct but Miranda was playing out of position... and allows Kiriloff to move to his best position. A connect the dots thing... 

[laloesch]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:29 PM, Deadfan said:

The twins did in fact short change correa if we look at it through the lens of what contracts are now going for in MLB. This offer probably wouldnt have gotten Carlos last year or the year before and it sure wasnt going to cut the mustard this year. 

Inflation is real folks 

 

that's not inflation that's insanity.  Russo is 100% correct.  The giants deal / no deal was beyond stupid.

[laloesch]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:12 PM, bloomwcjkl said:

If Correa was 22, maybe we missed. At 29, I think it was a lucky miss.

Baseball = summer. I just like having it on. (TV, radio, app).

I'll follow along whether we win or lose. Pirahna's with an under $100 million payroll is fine with me.

Yep.  That's what made me so nervous about what the Twins offered, which would have been a HUGE deal for them.  Considering Correa will be in his early 40's at the conclusion of that contract and has a history of back problems (which i can attest too, never go away), it was a very risky deal for this franchise in my opinion.  Would have it been great to have him? Sure, but at what price long term?  

[laloesch]

On 12/17/2022 at 9:37 AM, Whitey333 said:

I also tend to avoid articles submitted by Sherry.  I should have avoided it too.  What a line of garbage it's filled with plus many inaccuracies.  About the only thing I agree with is being glad twins didn't sign Correa.  IMO this FO is or should be on a very short string.  They have done a couple of good things I will grant you.  But I believe they have almost ruined this franchise. The team is boring, has no identity, plays very poor baseball.  Signing Joey Gallo, yes he of the 199 career average type to a one year contract of 11 million is ludicrous.  

I agree.  I'm kinda glad the Twins didn't sign Correa either.  I just have a gut feeling that deal is gonna end up being a bad BAD contract, even for the money rich Mets.  That said, I think the Front office got schooled and it appears they threw all their effort into the Correa deal.  The Gallo and Farmer signings do next to nothing to moving this team to competitiveness.   

And to all those giving Sherry a hard time about Carlos Rodon.  Carlos was signed that day and the other sports websites started reporting it between 7-9pm, while her article was posted around noon.  I think she deserves a pass.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

Correct but Miranda was playing out of position... and allows Kiriloff to move to his best position. A connect the dots thing... 

But Miranda isn't replacing Urshela on the roster.....which was what I replied to. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

that's not inflation that's insanity.  Russo is 100% correct.  The giants deal / no deal was beyond stupid.

It's the market. Or, the money can go to the owners......that's the option. Because the teams not signing elite players aren't signing the next tier either. 

[Major League Ready]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:52 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm unhappy that we didn't ay the freight to get Correa and happy that we didn't really compete for Rodon (too injury prone). But please, let's stop complaining about Urshela. Nice guy, decent player, but a classic starter on a second division team who is a UTL/trade bait on a good team kind of guy. His defense is good as long as the ball is hit to him or a step or two either way. No range. That's why the Yankees moved him off SS, and then realized that his bat isn't good enough bat to augment his glove at an offense first position once MLB got rid of the juiced ball. He's not on the Yankees any more because he wasn't good enough for a team that expected to contend. Perfect for the Angels who won't really contend but don't want to rebuild. He'll help them get as high as 80-82 wins this year. Whopee! And let's not forget he's a FA in 2024. 

We traded Urshela to create room for a player that has a much higher offensive ceiling at 3B, while leaving 1B open for the reigning AL batting champ and/or Kirilloff who also has a much higher ceiling. Yes, both young players have a lower floor. Will this work? I say more likely yes than no but none of us know. These are the kind of moves the Twins have to make and risks they have to take to have a chance to get better. A team of Urshelas might win 80-85 games but it won't compete for anything else. This might work, it might not, but at least it's an attempt to get better. 

I was a supporter of the Urshela / Donaldson trade when it was being criticized.  That said, I see it the same way.  However, I would add the possibility Kirilloff is back.  Then there is nowhere to play Miranda for certain.