Carlos Correa: Maybe This Isn't a Bad Thing

[Sherry Cerny]

It's been 48 hours since news broke that the Giants had reached an agreement with shortstop Carlos Correa for $350 million over 13 years. Looking at that number, logically, there is no way the Twins would touch that longevity, considering they gave fan-favorite Byron Buxton seven years for his talent and contributions. 

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Pohlads didn't "short-change" Correa. They didn't "lowball him." They made him a fair offer based on his age and production. The offer was $285 million over ten years, more per year than the Giants offer but three years shorter. There is nothing the Pohlads did differently than what most fans expected. They threw everything at Correa, minus the kitchen sink. 

There are the always angry Twins fans that voice their "Pohlad Pocket Protector" comments which, at this point, is more out of obligation and typical Minnesota fandom than logical reaction. It makes sense. Correa was a dark horse in the 2022 season we were surprised to get. With his agent, Scott Boras, at the helm, it was a dream that the Twins would have him for longer than a season. 

Longevity (no matter what Correa said about "loving being in Minnesota" -  because he did) was probably not a reality. The Twins are not a big market team like the Giants, who can throw $300 million at one player. (And yet they nearly did. They're not the Mets, who can throw $400mm at three players. Or the Yankees, who, well, you get the point. The point is, losing out on big contracts like this is not always a loss.

Not getting this deal may not be a bad thing. The Twins will not be in a Bobby Bonilla, Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson, or Albert Puljos situation. Luckily they got the Yankees to take the final two seasons of Josh Donaldson's contract. Not being stuck with a substantial long contract is a good thing. 

We should remember when Joe Mauer was the highest-paid member of the Twins and, after so many injuries and concussions, couldn't catch anymore. He moved to first base, where his bat was no longer elite, but he was still paid like an MVP. 

Byron Buxton is another highly-paid athlete who has lost a lot of playing time with various injuries. Twins fans would be inconsolable if the front office poured all the money into one player who needed to come out of games or miss a large chunk of time to heal. 

Amid Correa Watch 2022, the Twins made two sound acquisitions, trading for shortstop Kyle Farmer from the Reds and signing free agent catcher Christian Vasquez coming off a World Series win with the Astros. These two players have the potential to contribute defensively and offensively. Because fans were so focused on where Correa was going, these two acquisitions fell outside the spotlight, not getting the accolades they certainly earned. 

The front office has not left fans without hope. They certainly have impressed the past two seasons with their cloak-and-dagger movements to get certain players. But now, it's time to put the money Correa left behind where the front office's mouth is. The fans know that they have money to spend, and they know that fans know that they know. (Friends reference). 

Hence, the ball is truly in their court to make moves to continue improving the team. One of the most significant areas that the Twins can invest in is pitching. The Twins have several solid veteran starters, each with injury concerns. Sonny Gray ended the season on the Injured List with a leg injury and is rumored to be a potential trade piece. Tyler Mahle ended the season on the Injured List with a shoulder injury. Kenta Maeda is expected to return to the starting staff after spending all of 2022 on the Injured List after undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober showed in 2022 that they should remain part of the starting rotation. In addition, the team saw glimpses of talented young arms such as Josh Winder, Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Ronny Henriquez. And it doesn't make sense to give up on prospects Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and recent roster-addition Brent Headrick. 

However, adding another starter, such as lefty Carlos Rodon or right-hander Nathan Eovaldi to supplement the top of the rotation would provide some insurance. While there are slim pickings for high-level free-agent starting pitchers, Carlos Rodon is still looking for a home. While rumors abound that he will end up with the Yankees, that's what the Yankees thought last year with Correa too.

Maybe the Twins didn't lose out. While the fans will miss cheering for him in a Twins uniform, this contract could make them hostile in a hurry. Instead, one-year contracts happen, so do opt-outs, and the game moves on. Taking the temperature on Twitter, there is a lot of "it would have been nice." While some fans may continue to grumble, in the long run, this may be a good thing for the team, the fan base, and Correa, who we wish well in his new adventures. We will see you in May, C-4!

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[bloomwcjkl]

If Correa was 22, maybe we missed. At 29, I think it was a lucky miss.

Baseball = summer. I just like having it on. (TV, radio, app).

I'll follow along whether we win or lose. Pirahna's with an under $100 million payroll is fine with me.

[SanoMustGo]

This team, as constructed, is not a contender.  They are full of injury prone, unproven players.  There are some players with potential, but most of them are slow, plodding marginal corner outfielders or players without a position.  We can only bat 1 DH per game.  The pitching staff is a surgeon's dream...LOL.  At this point I need to see evidence in order to have confidence.

[saviking]

I commend you on writing a thoughtful article that is probably not popular. I agree with the article in it's entirety. Well done and brave ..

[Mike Sixel]

You can have one elite player and two rookies, or three mediocre to decent free agents. By the end of the deal, two mediocre free agents or one good one. 

Is a team really better off signing three mediocre players? I don't know, but I'd guess not. 

[EGFTShaw]

Despite the injuries and lack of games played and playing hurt; Buxton outperformed his contract.  Even at its top value of $15M/yr it is not a high-priced contract.

C4 if you take his contract solely as face value, ($$s and Years), then you are missing at least 50% of what C4 brings to the table.  Great article over on (cough cough since I am not a big fan of this site any more) ESPN about the long-term value that C4 will bring even as his playing declines.

"According to the study, the average cost for a family of four attending an MLB game is now $204.76. That price however does not only include four tickets, but also two beers, two sodas, four hot dogs, and parking."

Increased ticket sales x some % x $205 for family of 4 = C4 Ticket sales value.
Increased tales of jerseys & merch.
Increased TV revenue contract.

That's the easy stuff.

One of the most dialed and cerebral players in the league.  All that young talent the Twins have, you have a built-in extra bench coach.

He was worth 1 Win simply by telling, I think it was Ober, what to pitch to a single guy which led to the out.  I think it won the game for the Twins.

Proof that the Twins would pay for a FA that is worthy of their small market share $$s.  Nats had to do this, although not a small market but they were as the Expos, when they signed Jayson Werth for more than anyone in the league expected.  That got them Mad Max.

That said, C4 is a Giant for the next 13 years or until he allows himself to be traded.  

Let's take what we got, as you have pointed out, suck it up like we do when the Winds of January come howling out of the Arctic Circle and go defy expectations and do something.
 

[jccracraft]

I did not want Correa back. His salary would have been 20-25% of overall payroll. Too much, especially with Lewis hopefully coming back. Would have been blocked. I'm also fine with missing out on Rodan. Not a long enough track record, and to me not enough of an upgrade over current starters. We have around 7 who range from 2-4 type guys. I would have liked a real top end talent like Verlander on a 2 year contract. Or even Kershaw, had he been open to it. Specific to the line-up itself, I think a lot of people are forgetting the amount of injuries we had. It's a decent line-up when healthy. I'll take over this year, in terms of expectations.

[chpettit19]

I tend to be more on the "pocket protector" side of fans, but the following paragraph is inaccurate:

"The Pohlads didn't "short-change" Correa. They didn't "lowball him." They made him a fair offer based on his age and production. The offer was $285 million over ten years, more per year than the Giants offer but three years shorter. There is nothing the Pohlads did differently than what most fans expected. They threw everything at Correa, minus the kitchen sink."

The Pohlads/FO/whoever you want to say 100% did lowball Correa. The AAV means nothing. The fans expecting the Twins to not have the high offer means nothing. It feeling like a "fair offer" means nothing. Correa got $350 million. The Twins (reportedly) offered him $285 million. 285 being a lot for the Twins doesn't mean it isn't a lowball offer. Comparing Correa to the other SSs of his talent level made it quite clear that 285 had no realistic chance of getting it done. Lindor at 341 and Seager at 325 made it unrealistic. They were $65 million dollars short. Thus a lowball offer.

Now that doesn't mean it's a bad thing they didn't offer him more. It doesn't make it a bad thing they didn't sign him. It can be both a lowball offer and a good thing they didn't sign him. I'm not upset the Twins didn't sign Correa (although I would've liked it, and would've been fine with 10/350 if that's what it took). But I am upset that they seemingly wasted time and effort trying to sign him for a lowball offer while allowing realistic targets to sign elsewhere and leaving themselves with very few free agents worthy of signing in an attempt to jump a team from 70 some wins to 90 some.

The schedule evens out more next year. Yes, they're still in the central and face those teams a lot, but not as much. And more teams get to beat up on the central, and bad teams in general, now instead of having to battle their elite division foes as much. That means the good teams are likely going to win more while the bad teams will likely lose more. The Twins will, in all likelihood, have a higher win total to reach if they want a wild card spot moving forward. They've won 70 some games the last 2 years while facing far more weak opponents throughout the season due to their division, and now they're going to be playing a harder schedule so they need to improve upon the last 2 teams simply to still win 70 some games. I think we all want them to win significantly more than 70 some games. So they've got to do even more to jump up into the 90 win range I think we all want.

My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. Farmer and Vazquez are good enough to maybe keep them in the 70 win range. They're certainly not significant improvements. Especially when you factor in the loss of Correa. Do they even balance him out?

I know the first response of many will be "if they would've stayed healthy," and I agree they were better than a 78 win team last year with better health, but they weren't a 90 win team even with better help. They were a mid-80s win team with better health. Let's say 85 wins. Then they lost a 4 or 5 win player in Correa. I'll only take 3 losses off for that and they're at 82 wins. Let's go with another 4 losses added for the change in schedule (I'm trying to be conservative here and actually expect it to be more like 7 or 8 more losses) and we're down to 78 wins. Farmer and Vazquez make up for those 4 losses maybe? Back to 82 wins assuming the entire roster of injury prone players suddenly have improved health all for the same season. Generally speaking I use 90 wins as the cutoff for any team with a real shot at competing in the playoffs. How do they find 8 more wins? That's my problem with this offseason. They've put themselves in a really tough spot of needing to find 8 more wins while watching a lot of players who would've helped with that sign elsewhere because they were set on the idea that they could get Correa for $285 million when they should've known that was a lowball offer and was never going to cut it.

PS sorry for the long rant there.

[GNess]

Excellent article. However, the financial structure of MLB is completely broken as it does not create an even quasi-level playing field. How are the mid and small market teams supposed to compete when the Big Dogs get to acquire the very best players consistently?

So it becomes a "good thing" when the Twins don't resign an. elite player? But it's a move that will give the Giants a much better team for the next 5 years+ since they were able to afford to sign an elite player...

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I tend to be more on the "pocket protector" side of fans, but the following paragraph is inaccurate:

"The Pohlads didn't "short-change" Correa. They didn't "lowball him." They made him a fair offer based on his age and production. The offer was $285 million over ten years, more per year than the Giants offer but three years shorter. There is nothing the Pohlads did differently than what most fans expected. They threw everything at Correa, minus the kitchen sink."

The Pohlads/FO/whoever you want to say 100% did lowball Correa. The AAV means nothing. The fans expecting the Twins to not have the high offer means nothing. It feeling like a "fair offer" means nothing. Correa got $350 million. The Twins (reportedly) offered him $285 million. 285 being a lot for the Twins doesn't mean it isn't a lowball offer. Comparing Correa to the other SSs of his talent level made it quite clear that 285 had no realistic chance of getting it done. Lindor at 341 and Seager at 325 made it unrealistic. They were $65 million dollars short. Thus a lowball offer.

Now that doesn't mean it's a bad thing they didn't offer him more. It doesn't make it a bad thing they didn't sign him. It can be both a lowball offer and a good thing they didn't sign him. I'm not upset the Twins didn't sign Correa (although I would've liked it, and would've been fine with 10/350 if that's what it took). But I am upset that they seemingly wasted time and effort trying to sign him for a lowball offer while allowing realistic targets to sign elsewhere and leaving themselves with very few free agents worthy of signing in an attempt to jump a team from 70 some wins to 90 some.

The schedule evens out more next year. Yes, they're still in the central and face those teams a lot, but not as much. And more teams get to beat up on the central, and bad teams in general, now instead of having to battle their elite division foes as much. That means the good teams are likely going to win more while the bad teams will likely lose more. The Twins will, in all likelihood, have a higher win total to reach if they want a wild card spot moving forward. They've won 70 some games the last 2 years while facing far more weak opponents throughout the season due to their division, and now they're going to be playing a harder schedule so they need to improve upon the last 2 teams simply to still win 70 some games. I think we all want them to win significantly more than 70 some games. So they've got to do even more to jump up into the 90 win range I think we all want.

My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. Farmer and Vazquez are good enough to maybe keep them in the 70 win range. They're certainly not significant improvements. Especially when you factor in the loss of Correa. Do they even balance him out?

I know the first response of many will be "if they would've stayed healthy," and I agree they were better than a 78 win team last year with better health, but they weren't a 90 win team even with better help. They were a mid-80s win team with better health. Let's say 85 wins. Then they lost a 4 or 5 win player in Correa. I'll only take 3 losses off for that and they're at 82 wins. Let's go with another 4 losses added for the change in schedule (I'm trying to be conservative here and actually expect it to be more like 7 or 8 more losses) and we're down to 78 wins. Farmer and Vazquez make up for those 4 losses maybe? Back to 82 wins assuming the entire roster of injury prone players suddenly have improved health all for the same season. Generally speaking I use 90 wins as the cutoff for any team with a real shot at competing in the playoffs. How do they find 8 more wins? That's my problem with this offseason. They've put themselves in a really tough spot of needing to find 8 more wins while watching a lot of players who would've helped with that sign elsewhere because they were set on the idea that they could get Correa for $285 million when they should've known that was a lowball offer and was never going to cut it.

PS sorry for the long rant there.

They also lost Urshela, who had a great WPA and decent WAR.......and replaced him with no one so far. 

[RJA]

Sherry, I love your optimism, but I doubt they included everything but the kitchen sink as they were 65 million short--that would buy a lot of kitchen sinks :). According to Dan Hayes, they are now looking at Joey Gallo--a left handed hitting player who would be a huge improvement (?) over Larnach, Wallner or Kirilloff, and Justin Turner who had almost identical stats to Gio Urshela last year, but was one WAR short of him, but who would provide veteran leadership for Miranda, and probably only for an extra 3-5 million more than Urshela.   I love your articles--I am not being grumpy, just realistic.

[USAFChief]

"Carlos Rodon is still looking for a home..."

 

C'mon. TD has to be better than this.

[Mike Sixel]

I said it yesterday when they had the same thing.....they need an editor. If they are going to schedule articles, they need to edit them. 

[AceWrigley]

27 minutes ago, jccracraft said:

I'm also fine with missing out on Rodan.

Godzilla would approve.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Godzilla would approve.

Godzilla wasn't scared'a no Rodan!!

[Deadfan]

The twins did in fact short change correa if we look at it through the lens of what contracts are now going for in MLB. This offer probably wouldnt have gotten Carlos last year or the year before and it sure wasnt going to cut the mustard this year. 

Inflation is real folks 

 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They also lost Urshela, who had a great WPA and decent WAR.......and replaced him with no one so far. 

Forgot about him. They realistically probably need to add 10 wins to their record on top of the wins they'll make up simply by being healthier. 10 is a lot.

[DKrz56]

I normally skip Sherry’s articles….should’ve skipped this one. “Rodon still looking for home” smh…hopefully it will be edited soon. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I'm unhappy that we didn't ay the freight to get Correa and happy that we didn't really compete for Rodon (too injury prone). But please, let's stop complaining about Urshela. Nice guy, decent player, but a classic starter on a second division team who is a UTL/trade bait on a good team kind of guy. His defense is good as long as the ball is hit to him or a step or two either way. No range. That's why the Yankees moved him off SS, and then realized that his bat isn't good enough bat to augment his glove at an offense first position once MLB got rid of the juiced ball. He's not on the Yankees any more because he wasn't good enough for a team that expected to contend. Perfect for the Angels who won't really contend but don't want to rebuild. He'll help them get as high as 80-82 wins this year. Whopee! And let's not forget he's a FA in 2024. 

We traded Urshela to create room for a player that has a much higher offensive ceiling at 3B, while leaving 1B open for the reigning AL batting champ and/or Kirilloff who also has a much higher ceiling. Yes, both young players have a lower floor. Will this work? I say more likely yes than no but none of us know. These are the kind of moves the Twins have to make and risks they have to take to have a chance to get better. A team of Urshelas might win 80-85 games but it won't compete for anything else. This might work, it might not, but at least it's an attempt to get better. 

[farmerguychris]

48 minutes ago, GNess said:

Excellent article. However, the financial structure of MLB is completely broken as it does not create an even quasi-level playing field. How are the mid and small market teams supposed to compete when the Big Dogs get to acquire the very best players consistently?

So it becomes a "good thing" when the Twins don't resign an. elite player? But it's a move that will give the Giants a much better team for the next 5 years+ since they were able to afford to sign an elite player...

This off season is a great example of why MLB needs both a salary cap, and a floor.  Contracts like this will ruin baseball if the trend continues of only the big markets being able to buy teams.  

With that said, it will be a good thing for the Giants for the next 5 years or so.  Then they will have an albatross contract that they can handle, but we would be in trouble having on the books.

[farmerguychris]

54 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They also lost Urshela, who had a great WPA and decent WAR.......and replaced him with no one so far. 

But hey - don't forget we still have Pagan.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm unhappy that we didn't ay the freight to get Correa and happy that we didn't really compete for Rodon (too injury prone). But please, let's stop complaining about Urshela. Nice guy, decent player, but a classic starter on a second division team who is a UTL/trade bait on a good team kind of guy. His defense is good as long as the ball is hit to him or a step or two either way. No range. That's why the Yankees moved him off SS, and then realized that his bat isn't good enough bat to augment his glove at an offense first position once MLB got rid of the juiced ball. He's not on the Yankees any more because he wasn't good enough for a team that expected to contend. Perfect for the Angels who won't really contend but don't want to rebuild. He'll help them get as high as 80-82 wins this year. Whopee! And let's not forget he's a FA in 2024. 

We traded Urshela to create room for a player that has a much higher offensive ceiling at 3B, while leaving 1B open for the reigning AL batting champ and/or Kirilloff who also has a much higher ceiling. Yes, both young players have a lower floor. Will this work? I say more likely yes than no but none of us know. These are the kind of moves the Twins have to make and risks they have to take to have a chance to get better. A team of Urshelas might win 80-85 games but it won't compete for anything else. This might work, it might not, but at least it's an attempt to get better. 

No one is complaining about Urshela.....we are pointing out that he's gone and his production needs to be replaced when you look at team WAR. Nothing more or less......And, Miranda was on the team much of last year, even with Urshela. You aren't replace Urshela with Miranda, you are replacing him with someone that wasn't on the team last year.

[Minderbinder]

Any team that would bind itself to a 13-year agreement with someone of Correa's age should be laughed out of the league.  Correa contributed significantly to the Twins last year, but no way is he worth any amount for 13 years, which is what the FO would've had to do to get Boras' attention.

I'll be patient.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Any team that would bind itself to a 13-year agreement with someone of Correa's age should be laughed out of the league.  Correa contributed significantly to the Twins last year, but no way is he worth any amount for 13 years, which is what the FO would've had to do to get Boras' attention.

I'll be patient.

13 years just spreads the money out for cash flow. Correa, Boras and Zaidi themselves don’t expect Correa to be playing in 13 years.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I tend to be more on the "pocket protector" side of fans, but the following paragraph is inaccurate:

"The Pohlads didn't "short-change" Correa. They didn't "lowball him." They made him a fair offer based on his age and production. The offer was $285 million over ten years, more per year than the Giants offer but three years shorter. There is nothing the Pohlads did differently than what most fans expected. They threw everything at Correa, minus the kitchen sink."

The Pohlads/FO/whoever you want to say 100% did lowball Correa. The AAV means nothing. The fans expecting the Twins to not have the high offer means nothing. It feeling like a "fair offer" means nothing. Correa got $350 million. The Twins (reportedly) offered him $285 million. 285 being a lot for the Twins doesn't mean it isn't a lowball offer. Comparing Correa to the other SSs of his talent level made it quite clear that 285 had no realistic chance of getting it done. Lindor at 341 and Seager at 325 made it unrealistic. They were $65 million dollars short. Thus a lowball offer.

Now that doesn't mean it's a bad thing they didn't offer him more. It doesn't make it a bad thing they didn't sign him. It can be both a lowball offer and a good thing they didn't sign him. I'm not upset the Twins didn't sign Correa (although I would've liked it, and would've been fine with 10/350 if that's what it took). But I am upset that they seemingly wasted time and effort trying to sign him for a lowball offer while allowing realistic targets to sign elsewhere and leaving themselves with very few free agents worthy of signing in an attempt to jump a team from 70 some wins to 90 some.

The schedule evens out more next year. Yes, they're still in the central and face those teams a lot, but not as much. And more teams get to beat up on the central, and bad teams in general, now instead of having to battle their elite division foes as much. That means the good teams are likely going to win more while the bad teams will likely lose more. The Twins will, in all likelihood, have a higher win total to reach if they want a wild card spot moving forward. They've won 70 some games the last 2 years while facing far more weak opponents throughout the season due to their division, and now they're going to be playing a harder schedule so they need to improve upon the last 2 teams simply to still win 70 some games. I think we all want them to win significantly more than 70 some games. So they've got to do even more to jump up into the 90 win range I think we all want.

My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. Farmer and Vazquez are good enough to maybe keep them in the 70 win range. They're certainly not significant improvements. Especially when you factor in the loss of Correa. Do they even balance him out?

I know the first response of many will be "if they would've stayed healthy," and I agree they were better than a 78 win team last year with better health, but they weren't a 90 win team even with better help. They were a mid-80s win team with better health. Let's say 85 wins. Then they lost a 4 or 5 win player in Correa. I'll only take 3 losses off for that and they're at 82 wins. Let's go with another 4 losses added for the change in schedule (I'm trying to be conservative here and actually expect it to be more like 7 or 8 more losses) and we're down to 78 wins. Farmer and Vazquez make up for those 4 losses maybe? Back to 82 wins assuming the entire roster of injury prone players suddenly have improved health all for the same season. Generally speaking I use 90 wins as the cutoff for any team with a real shot at competing in the playoffs. How do they find 8 more wins? That's my problem with this offseason. They've put themselves in a really tough spot of needing to find 8 more wins while watching a lot of players who would've helped with that sign elsewhere because they were set on the idea that they could get Correa for $285 million when they should've known that was a lowball offer and was never going to cut it.

PS sorry for the long rant there.

This! It’s not the contract and whether or not Correa signed it, it’s the dithering while their competitors signed the players they needed to sign. A trade for a fine utility player and fine catcher does not a successful offseason make. Now there’s no free agents available that move the needle and the question becomes “should the Twins sell?”

yuck

[mikelink45]

Good reflections - Time for fans to stop obsessing over the high end FA and focus on the crappy low enders we sign like Gallo.  Let's get a team of good prospects and grow with them. 

[ashbury]

I don't want attendance to drop to zero, so I am grateful there are fans who will accept business as usual, in Twins country.

[Sherry Cerny]

8 hours ago, saviking said:

I commend you on writing a thoughtful article that is probably not popular. I agree with the article in it's entirety. Well done and brave ..

I've started to get more brave. I have outlandish thoughts at times. lol buckle up.

[Sherry Cerny]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Good reflections - Time for fans to stop obsessing over the high end FA and focus on the crappy low enders we sign like Gallo.  Let's get a team of good prospects and grow with them. 

just wrote one about that too. I have a lot of thoughts.

[Sherry Cerny]

7 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

But hey - don't forget we still have Pagan.

ugh.