A Former Insider's Thoughts on Losing the Big Fish

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, roger said:

Agree with much/most of what you say 2wins87.  Where I take a different turn with most is the need for a #1/ACE.  There are so few of them out there not everyone is going to get one.  Add that the ones in free agency have a lot of risk, too much IMO, as they are getting older and you are paying huge dollars for their previous success.  So often teams are stuck with a big name that is well past his prime and has a huge contract for several years.  So I appreciate the fact that they are losing out on these big names who carry too much risk.  After all there only is one Verlander out there and he also may have had his last great year, or not.

Rather I would want them to continue doing what they have and you alluded to.  That is build a rotation with an excellent trio of #2-#3 starters to fill the 2-4 slots in the rotation.  Add another #3 or #4 caliber starter for the #5 slot and they are set to be competitive, pitching wise, in every series they play.  It looks like they also finally have a couple of very good young arms who will be ready to fill in for injuries early this summer.  I believe the above plan is a way that mid-market teams can compete and expect the Twins to do so this summer.

I would make a distinction between Ace and #1 and say they don't have to get to Ace level.  I agree it's still tough to get them in free agency.

This year #1s were probably just DeGrom, Rodon, and Verlander.  The previous year probably just Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, and Ray.  So it's never going to be easy and always a risk, but I still think they should be more willing to take the risk when they've built the payroll flexibility and there is an opportunity for a guy they really like.  I would have been fine with the Rodon deal.  Maybe the more realistic scenario will be a trade with a big extension, but I feel like the whole point of payroll flexibility is the ability to make a risky deal.

I also don't think we should take risk to be the same as a foregone conclusion of decline either.  Look at the Scherzer deal with the Nationals.  It looked like a pretty big risk at the time, and ended up being probably one of the best FA signings of all time.  He was lights out for 5 years and led them to a WS championship.  He did have injuries in the final two years but by that point the contract was already well worth the price, deferred money and all.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

If the twins offered 10/360 it would have been competitive. 10/285 was not. It’s not about the years

My point was about the process. Yes if the Twins offered 360 million blah blah blah. And more blah. At some point the negotiation stopped. It is pointless to try to explain it once again, you are seemingly unable to either understand my point or just unwilling to accept the possibility. 60 million over what was the highest shortstop contract is not foreseeable. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, old nurse said:

My point was about the process. Yes if the Twins offered 360 million blah blah blah. And more blah. At some point the negotiation stopped. It is pointless to try to explain it once again, you are seemingly unable to either understand my point or just unwilling to accept the possibility. 60 million over what was the highest shortstop contract is not foreseeable. 

It was less then Seager and Turner got, and only 5 million more than Xander got. Would you predict CC would take that? 

[roger]

1 minute ago, 2wins87 said:

I would make a distinction between Ace and #1 and say they don't have to get to Ace level.  I agree it's still tough to get them in free agency.

This year #1s were probably just DeGrom, Rodon, and Verlander.  The previous year probably just Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, and Ray.  So it's never going to be easy and always a risk, but I still think they should be more willing to take the risk when they've built the payroll flexibility and there is an opportunity for a guy they really like.  I would have been fine with the Rodon deal.  Maybe the more realistic scenario will be a trade with a big extension, but I feel like the whole point of payroll flexibility is the ability to make a risky deal.

I also don't think we should take risk to be the same as a foregone conclusion of decline either.  Look at the Scherzer deal with the Nationals.  It looked like a pretty big risk at the time, and ended up being probably one of the best FA signings of all time.  He was lights out for 5 years and led them to a WS championship.  He did have injuries in the final two years but by that point the contract was already well worth the price, deferred money and all.

Hear what you are saying.  Being ultra conservative, however, I wouldn't take the risk of the big dollar guys in hopes of getting the one deal, Sherzer, that worked out so well.

I also am of the opinion that they have their #1 guy, Sonny Gray.  With the next four slots filled, I see no need to spend big dollars in an attempt to make a small improvement in that #1 starter.  Will agree, however, that if they did and everyone moved back one spot they would be stronger.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

My point was about the process. Yes if the Twins offered 360 million blah blah blah. And more blah. At some point the negotiation stopped. It is pointless to try to explain it once again, you are seemingly unable to either understand my point or just unwilling to accept the possibility. 60 million over what was the highest shortstop contract is not foreseeable. 

It's possible I have difficulties understanding what you are saying because you aren't saying it well, but before we get into a debate questioning one another's intelligence, let's not ... it's against site rules. We will just disagree.

[2wins87]

1 minute ago, roger said:

Hear what you are saying.  Being ultra conservative, however, I wouldn't take the risk of the big dollar guys in hopes of getting the one deal, Sherzer, that worked out so well.

I also am of the opinion that they have their #1 guy, Sonny Gray.  With the next four slots filled, I see no need to spend big dollars in an attempt to make a small improvement in that #1 starter.  Will agree, however, that if they did and everyone moved back one spot they would be stronger.

Fangraphs currently has Sonny Gray projected for 2.2 wins and Rodon at 4.5 so I don't think it is a small difference.  Even if you think the inning projection is too light for Gray there is a pretty big difference.  Gray is a #2 who is de facto #1.  Against which playoff team would you have liked him matched up against their #1 guy?  That's my main point on having a #1.

I like the young guys too, so for someone like Eovaldi I wouldn't really see the point.  I think they will always be underwhelming in the playoffs until they find some way to get a #1 at some point.  Even as much as I like their pitching development, I don't see it happening when their base talent level is college pitchers taken on day 2/3 of the draft.

I'm a bit at a loss but I'm not going to continue putting more negative energy into it at this point.

[KirbyDome89]

Disciplined, at least in this context, carries a positive connotation, the implication being we should buy into the process. That process, though not solely responsible, has largely contributed to a couple pretty poor seasons recently. 

**Credit where it's due for landing Correa last year, but his situation was unique, and obviously they can't rely on something similar happening, maybe ever again.**

I couldn't agree more with Squirrel, I can't get over this FO consciously submitting an offer that anybody with a pulse knew wasn't going to win, or if we're being honest, even come close. 

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've literally been on the trade Kepler train for two years now....and now I'm on the deal nearly everyone train. Again, we agree, they need to product talent (and not draft Sabato and the other guy who's name I can't spell in round one). I also said trade Berrios. I'm still not seeing where we disagree. 

I stand corrected.  Perhaps I am holding on to memories that are no longer accurate.  I have no confidence Correa would have made a difference anytime soon.  I would move Kepler and Maeda and then see how it goes this year with Wallner / Varland / SWR and perhaps Martin.  Then, be ready to unload Gray at the trade deadline as well as Mahle if an extension is not in the cards because his health concerns or an inability to agree to terms.   One of Polanco or Arraez also goes if a good return is available.  That gives us all kinds of room to spend in 2024.  Nola is a much better risk.  Philly has a lot of big financial obligations, perhaps we can pry him away.

[Parker Hageman]

✋ question for @jdgoin:

there is a narrative that the twins "missed" out on other free agents while waiting on Correa's decision. 

from your experience, do teams "miss" players when they are targeting one or do they conduct due diligence and make an informed decision on who to target, keep multiple conversations going, etc?

for example, if one team, say the twins, are targeting a premium shortstop named, say, karlos korrea, would they then neglect to try to acquire a pitcher like karlos rodawn? or does the pursuit of korrea hinder a team's ability to make other signings, thereby allowing other teams to swoop in?

[roger]

27 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Fangraphs currently has Sonny Gray projected for 2.2 wins and Rodon at 4.5 so I don't think it is a small difference.  Even if you think the inning projection is too light for Gray there is a pretty big difference.  Gray is a #2 who is de facto #1.  Against which playoff team would you have liked him matched up against their #1 guy?  That's my main point on having a #1.

I like the young guys too, so for someone like Eovaldi I wouldn't really see the point.  I think they will always be underwhelming in the playoffs until they find some way to get a #1 at some point.  Even as much as I like their pitching development, I don't see it happening when their base talent level is college pitchers taken on day 2/3 of the draft.

I'm a bit at a loss but I'm not going to continue putting more negative energy into it at this point.

See that is where you are missing my point.  I don't really care who starts for the Twins against the other team's ACE.  If they have a true ACE, you sacrifice game 1.   If they don't have an ACE, Gray stands a chance of winning that game.

But you have developed a strong #2-#5 which will match the other team's #2-#5.  My point is that it is a heck of a lot easier, and less costly, to have a strong 2-5 compared with going all out and taking additional risk to get that ACE.  Heck, I have always wondered why a team doesn't start their #5 in game 1 of the playoffs (or #4 if they are only using 4 starters.  

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I stand corrected.  Perhaps I am holding on to memories that are no longer accurate.  I have no confidence Correa would have made a difference anytime soon.  I would move Kepler and Maeda and then see how it goes this year with Wallner / Varland / SWR and perhaps Martin.  Then, be ready to unload Gray at the trade deadline as well as Mahle if an extension is not in the cards because his health concerns or an inability to agree to terms.   One of Polanco or Arraez also goes if a good return is available.  That gives us all kinds of room to spend in 2024.  Nola is a much better risk.  Philly has a lot of big financial obligations, perhaps we can pry him away.

I'd rather extend Gray, as I think he's more likely to be healthy than Mahle, but that's just a thing we can quibble on. I'm all in on dealing Arraez for AA player(s).

[tony&rodney]

My fervent hope is that all of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are awesome starting pitchers for the Minnesota Twins in 2023. My brain tells me that Ryan, Ober, and Varland or include Winder and Woods Richardson will be better starting pitchers next season. Another post has suggested that there are teams interested in our experienced guys. I'm open to trading any or all of them.

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd rather extend Gray, as I think he's more likely to be healthy than Mahle, but that's just a thing we can quibble on. I'm all in on dealing Arraez for AA player(s).

I hear ya but regression is more inevitable than injury.  It will be Gray's age 34 season at the start of however many years he gets.  Will he be effective when he loses a couple MPH off his fastball?  He just does not impress me as a pitcher who will be effective at age 35+.  Of course, I could be dead wrong. 

A lot depends on how much opportunity SWR and Varland get and of course how they look.  Paddack plays into this as well.  Where I know we agree is that we would both prefer to have Nola even if it meant filling out the rotation between Ryan / Ober / Paddack / Varland / SWR and Winder.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I hear ya but regression is more inevitable than injury.  It will be Gray's age 34 season.  Will he be effective when he loses a couple MPH off his fastball?  A lot depends on how much opportunity SWR and Varland get and of course how they look.  Paddack plays into this as well.  Where I know we agree is that we would both prefer to have Nola even if it meant filling out the rotation between Ryan / Ober / Paddack / Varland / SWR and Winder.

Truth on that last part. But, given the last two years, not holding my breath on that.

[Major League Ready]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Truth on that last part. But, given the last two years, not holding my breath on that.

Dare to dream!  I could believe in a different level of aggression because they would be at about $100M if they let Kepler go and paid Nola an AAV of $30M.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've literally been on the trade Kepler train for two years now....and now I'm on the deal nearly everyone train. Again, we agree, they need to product talent (and not draft Sabato and the other guy who's name I can't spell in round one). I also said trade Berrios. I'm still not seeing where we disagree. 

Cacavo (sp) or Jay or Stewart?

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Cacavo (sp) or Jay or Stewart?

Cavaco is my most hated move of this FO.  Corbin Carroll was the best available according to multiple sources.  He has 70 grade speed and a 65 hit tool.  I had never saw him play but still couldn't believe they passed on him after ready the scouting reports.  He is the #3 prospect in MLB and Cavaco is dead weight.  What really adds insult to injury is that Carroll would be the perfect fit on this team because he could back-up Buxton with nearly the same defensive ability.

Simply never understood Jay.  I just figured the scouts must have seen something I could not.  Stewart is understandable.  That's the risk drafting a HS pitcher that high.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Cacavo (sp) or Jay or Stewart?

I dont hold the current FO accountable for the two pitchers at all. Imagine drafting a college RP from the Big 10 in the top ten of the MLB draft! That's a firable offense.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Cacavo (sp) or Jay or Stewart?

Yes.

[jdgoin]

7 hours ago, Parker Hageman said:

✋ question for @jdgoin:

there is a narrative that the twins "missed" out on other free agents while waiting on Correa's decision. 

from your experience, do teams "miss" players when they are targeting one or do they conduct due diligence and make an informed decision on who to target, keep multiple conversations going, etc?

for example, if one team, say the twins, are targeting a premium shortstop named, say, karlos korrea, would they then neglect to try to acquire a pitcher like karlos rodawn? or does the pursuit of korrea hinder a team's ability to make other signings, thereby allowing other teams to swoop in?

@Parker Hageman Nice question! 

Do teams "miss" players when they are targeting one or do they conduct due diligence and make an informed decision on who to target, keep multiple conversations going, etc?

Of course they miss out on players by targeting someone. Just by definition they missed out on Turner, Bogaerts, etc. because their main SS priority was Correa. They were willing/wanted to get Correa and would let the others sign first if they didn't have an answer. I guess a team could make the same or similar offer to those 3 players and give the agents 48 hours to respond and whomever responds first gets the deal. Not sure that would be received to well by the agents. 

If you're asking did they miss out on an impact starter by waiting on Correa, then they chose to miss out on the starter. But the reverse would have been true as well. If they would have targeted a SP at the top end and had to wait they would have missed on Correa as well. There is always a tradeoff. Even the Yankees missed out on a starter because they went after Judge. So maybe they missed on DeGrom and settled for Rodon. Just like if you were thinking of doing a marathon you might need to think about giving up Coors Light during training. There is a tradeoff.

Teams have their pref lists for FA and potential FA ongoing. That helps make decisions in future seasons as well by studying the quality/depth of positions available this offseason, next offseason, and going forward. The real work on the current FA class probably started right after the Trade Deadline. Personnel departments will begin to rank them by position, then maybe by all position players, pitchers (SP & RP separate), and then combine everyone together.

Using this offseason as an example, let's say the Twins had no clear SS frontrunner. They would take Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts. But they really wanted Rodon and their second SP candidate fell behind all the SS in their rankings. They may go after Rodon while keeping dialogue going with the SS class and be happy with whichever SS they signed. Does that make sense? You use your projections and internal rankings on all ML players so you can quickly see how each player affects your roster, your payroll, etc. Doesn't matter if they're FA or currently in an organization.

I would say most teams do not have the payroll availability to sign two guys like Correa and DeGrom, so you have to make decisions. Adding $60+ million in salary probably strains most teams. 

In today's game, teams are talking with each other all the time. You're keeping track of who might be available via trade. During FA you have all sorts of conversations going on with multiple agents or agencies. I would say every teams at least checks in on just about every free agent to get a lay of the land. Maybe something pops up that wasn't on their radar. Teams do a lot of due diligence nowadays.

[jdgoin]

17 hours ago, Squirrel said:

 

Perhaps I’ve just cherry-picked your thoughtful response to this situation, but I keep coming back to these two points. They knew they had to keep it close, yet they were no where near close. And they knew Boras, where the highest bid wins (most of the time), yet we were so far from it. I get the disciplined part, too. But they were just so far off the mark. And yet we outsiders had a better sense of what it would take. Many here wouldn’t have gone that high, some would, but we all had a better sense than 285/10. We saw what other SS were paid both this and last off season. I have a difficult time accepting this is just a disciplined approach. I don’t doubt their sincerity in wanting to do a good job. I understand how it feels when outsiders judge your work when they have little to no understanding of what you do and how it all works. But how could they seriously not know they were so far off the mark? This leaves me, the fan, defeated and wondering if we will ever have a winning team again. We are left with development and trade as a means to an end, and it will never be enough in this environment. We may get lucky and one year just have that ‘special’ team, when it all just clicks, but that is too much hope. I’ll keep watching, sort of, but winning matters in the end. And disciplined is just not going to win.

Yes, I'm guessing the Twins were hoping if they could come close enough in money that the sales pitch they gave during the 2022 season would mean something even if the money was a little less. I don't know if they could have gone higher or not. But I'm pretty sure Boras either told all teams involved or a select few what offers he had in hand and gave them a certain amount of time to beat them. The Giants chose to do that and make sure nobody else was close.  The Giants had to make a decision as well. They could have increased their offer slightly and risk not signing Correa. Or do nothing and call Boras' bluff. None of us know what the offers were as of say, Sunday night. For all we know the Giants offered 10 years and $295 million at first and came back with the winning offer.

[ashbury]

14 hours ago, jdgoin said:

Yes, I'm guessing the Twins were hoping if they could come close enough in money that the sales pitch they gave during the 2022 season would mean something even if the money was a little less. I don't know if they could have gone higher or not. But I'm pretty sure Boras either told all teams involved or a select few what offers he had in hand and gave them a certain amount of time to beat them. The Giants chose to do that and make sure nobody else was close.  The Giants had to make a decision as well. They could have increased their offer slightly and risk not signing Correa. Or do nothing and call Boras' bluff. None of us know what the offers were as of say, Sunday night. For all we know the Giants offered 10 years and $295 million at first and came back with the winning offer.

Nice synthesis.

Now do Gallo for us.

[D.C Twins]

"Like many businesses, they hoped the relationship between the manager, club, ownership, and player meant something."

If this is true, this specifically highlights Flavine's ignorance. Borras only takes on clients that desire to get the biggest contract possible. He is not interested in "the relationship."

Ergo, the fact that Correa took Boras as an agent told Flavine the future. They simply chose to ignore it. 

[old nurse]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:23 PM, Mike Sixel said:

It was less then Seager and Turner got, and only 5 million more than Xander got. Would you predict CC would take that? 

The agents and clubs have to work together again so neither party is going to throw much shade on the other. Contracts are negotiations, not a one and done bid. The Twins have a known bid. Nobody said they wouldn’t do higher. That point is lost. The contract ultimately negotiated  is higher by far than any other SS contract. How did it get negotiated to that point. Granted logic flies out the window in free agency this year, but the final contract did not come out of nowhere. People also do not know if the Twins dropped out or were dropped.

Carlos Correa said all the right words, interacted with team mates in all of the right ways. Still in this day and age it feels like you have to treat everyone like a used car salesman. Given an option there are players who want to be in certain areas. Ohtani mentioned it, Wheeler mentioned it, Mad Bum mentioned it It exists. 

Why would Correa want to move on from Minneapolis? He stated about when he walks into the Dior Store. There isn’t one here