Projecting the 2023 Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 1.0

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's projected Opening Day roster has shifted since the offseason began. Let's catch up on what the team's roster might look like at the end of spring training.

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. 

Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers
One of the biggest needs for the Twins this winter was catcher, and the team signed veteran catcher Christian Vazquez to a three-year deal. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has averaged 128 games while hitting .265/.311/.374 (.685). Defensively, he grades out as an above-average pitch framer and his ability to throw out runners. Even with Vazquez, Jeffers will start 60-70 games behind the plate. This decline in playing time might help him to stay healthy after injuries impacted him in back-to-back seasons. Jeffers is under team control through 2026, so there is still plenty of time to show his value at the big-league level. 

Infielders (5): Luis Arraez, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco 
Minnesota was waiting on a Carlos Correa decision, but he signed a long-term deal with the Giants and that changes Minnesota's infield plans. Rumors have swirled about Luis Arraez being a potential trade piece, so the infield group might undergo multiple changes before Opening Day. Kyle Farmer is the team's lone new addition to this group and projects to be the team's starting shortstop. Jose Miranda is being handed the reins at third base following an inconsistent rookie campaign. Still, the front office has confidence that he can be an above-average big-league player. Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff are returning from injury with the expectation that they will return to health in 2023. 

Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach**
Like with the infield, there is no guarantee this outfield group is finalized at this point in the offseason. Max Kepler's name has been tied to multiple trade rumors, and moving him would free up time in the corner outfield for someone like Matt Wallner. Bryon Buxton will continue to get at-bats in the DH role, so Gilberto Celestino provides some centerfield insurance. It will be intriguing to watch how Nick Gordon responds after posting a 113 OPS+ in his first full big-league season. Like many on the Twins roster, Trevor Larnach is returning from an injury-plagued season. Does Larnach have to enter spring training worried about Wallner taking his roster spot?

Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober
On paper, Minnesota's starting rotation looks strong, but three of the five pitchers missed significant time with injuries last season. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray were the rotation's stalwarts last season, and they will be relied on heavily again in 2023. If injuries strike, the Twins will use the next-man-up philosophy with pitchers like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Jordan Balazovic. Minnesota's front office can certainly look to upgrade this group, but Carlos Rodon, the top free-agent starter, is looking for six years or more. The Twins will never commit to a starter that long, especially with Rodon's injury history. Trading for a starter is also an option, but that will take significant prospect capital that the Twins might not be willing to part with after dealing away players at last year's trade deadline. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill**
Minnesota's backend of the bullpen projects to perform well in 2023, with Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez serving as anchors. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Minnesota surprised some by tendering a contract to Emilio Pagan, but the team hopes some of his late-season adjustments will carry over to 2023. Griffin Jax has been working with Driveline Baseball this offseason, which can make him a potential 2023 breakout candidate. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez and Cole Sands.      

What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Have the Twins improved this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

A good roster for a 500 team.  Take Luis Arraez out and who gets on base.  Let's hope the young players really step forward and the next man up is able to take the mound with authority.

[Brandon27]

No need to projecting the roster cause this team is done signing players cause  Vazquez only signing to the major league roster 

[Deadfan]

Next season not shaping up to be one to write home about....

[LewFordLives]

Does anyone know if Celestino is out of options? I doubt they bring six outfielders north, although I guess you could easily put Gordon down as an infielder. Other than that, I think this article sums up the current situation, for better or worse.

[weitz41]

No they definitely haven't improved at this point. There is still time but no star players left imo. I'd like to see a good starter added (not named Rodon) another 7th or 8th inning BP arm and a RH 1B/OF.

If the FO wants to make a splash how about a trade for Devers? Say Lee for Devers (with an agreed upon extension. Something like 12x28.5, 11x29.25 or 10x30?). Devers is only 25 and can move to 1b and then DH in the later years. Keep Miranda at 1st with Kirilloff or Arreaz. 

[DFlow]

With this ridiculous payroll flexibility and no big name free agents to spend it on (thanks to Falvine), let’s shore up the bullpen. Chafin and Fulmer would cost around 13 mil and would give us six or so strong options out of the bullpen. This would also allow guys like Winder or Alcala to surprise you in the two remaining spots which would clear up a lot of uncertainty out there.

I doubt Kenta starts the year in the rotation. I think he starts in long relief and takes over his rotation spot in May/June as a way to build him back up. I could see the Twins go after someone like Wacha on a one year deal (which will go as well as the other one year pitching deals we have done). 
 

Finally- I think Falvine will seek out some additional power in the lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised with a JD Martinez deal for one year with a club option to shore up the middle of the lineup. With Correa gone, someone has to fill that power vacuum in the middle of the lineup.

 

[mickster]

Expect Kepler to be gone, so Wallner may be there.  

 

[Nashvilletwin]

1. Sign Swanson. 

2. Move Kiriloff to the OF; Celestino goes to St. Paul.

3. Trade Kepler for a solid relief pitcher, add Wallner, trade/drop Pagan 

4a.  Add an additional solid FA relief pitcher, drop Megill or Moran; or

4b. Insert Rodon in the Rotation; Ober or Maeda goes to the pen; or

4c. Sign a better RH OF bat (not sure who); Garlick goes to St. Paul; or 

5. Do none of the above, sell big time at the deadline, draw 1.5MM at best, and let the young guys (Lee, Lewis, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, and Henriquez) play in August and September. Oh, and look for a new FO and Manager.

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Looking back a year ago, we were much worse with a lot of holes.

OF- about the same but with less experience

INF- Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson & Sano

Catcher- Garver, Jeffers & Rortvedt (we later lost Garver & Rortvedt )

Rotation- rookies Ryan, Ober + Bundy

BP- Rodgers, Alcala, rookies Jax & Duran (we lost Rodgers for Pagan & Alcala to IL)

This year our biggest hole right now is finding a platoon SS w/ Farmer to hold down the fort until Lewis is ready.

[roger]

Expect you are awfully close to what it will be, Cody.

I would move Gordon from outfield to infield as he is the team's only backup at second and short.  Have maintained since the end of last season that their second biggest need, catcher 1a was first, is another big arm for the late innings.  Believe they need to get quality over quantity to get a shut down bullpen

Will this team be better than 2022?  Yes, it could be much better unless the injuries are as bad as last year, which isn't likely because of the normal winter and spring training.

[Peter]

Hoping for the best but expecting the worse. At best twins may win 81-83 games but expecting 70-75 wins. It looks like rebuilding for the next 2-3 years. Let’s hope we can get rodan/Swanson. I’ll still watch/supports the twins but be realistic about this upcoming. Just be competitive. 

[Teddy]

Personally, I'm OK with most of the roster. If I were Falvine, I'd use 2023 to get the kids some experience. I'd like to see Kepler, Pagan and Sonny Gray traded for prospects, and likely move Maeda at the trade deadline. The team needs to know what they have in Varland, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Wallner, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lee, Lewis (when he's healthy again), etc. The only way to find that out is to give them time in the big leagues.  Once you find out who is for real this year, you can supplement next year with FAs to fill the gaps and make a run, but giving 13 years to Correa or six to an oft-injured Rodon is not fiscally responsible. I'd rather watch the kids grow this year than be saddled with those contracts.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Question: Whatever happened to using Kepler as Buxton's centerfield backup? Yeah, he still maybe can't hit but he's better defensively than Celestino isn't he? That would mean leaving Celestino in St. Paul and giving Wallner a shot in right since Buxton will probably miss his usual 80 games or so.

Just wondering.

[Muppet]

As I mostly "watch" baseball by way of blue and red dots that appear in or near a square drawn next to a cartoon batter, I can't really see defensive plays happen. "In Play, Out(s)" can imply a fantastic diving summersault and throw to first, or a pop up. That said, the smell test of trading in our (likely) two best infield defenders for two that appear to be... bad, it doesn't look good. Miranda, Farmer, and Polanco will probably be letting a lot of balls through to the outfield this year. 

[Oldtimer]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

1. Sign Swanson. 

2. Move Kiriloff to the OF; Celestino goes to St. Paul.

3. Trade Kepler for a solid relief pitcher, add Wallner, trade/drop Pagan 

4a.  Add an additional solid FA relief pitcher, drop Megill or Moran; or

4b. Insert Rodon in the Rotation; Ober or Maeda goes to the pen; or

4c. Sign a better RH OF bat (not sure who); Garlick goes to St. Paul; or 

5. Do none of the above, sell big time at the deadline, draw 1.5MM at best, and let the young guys (Lee, Lewis, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, and Henriquez) play in August and September. Oh, and look for a new FO and Manager.

 

 

Oh my!!! A lot of that makes a lot of sense. 

[TNTwinsFan]

I'm not signing Dansby if he's asking for close to $200m. Dude's 28 and *just* put it all together. I'd rather see the Twins roll with Farmer until Lewis returns. I'm also not spending on Carlos Rodon. Trade a couple outfielders and some other assets (Arraez, Polanco) and reset a bit this year. Maybe focus on locking up some of the new pitching the Twins received in last year's trades and find out what you have with Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Martin, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see any SP you want to extend for sure at this point. Gray already has an option, IIRC. The rest have had injury concerns. 

[RJA]

This will be an average team unless a lot of young players step up.  

[DocBauer]

As of today, right now, this is probably right. 

What I think should be done going forward?

1} Get that RH bat we need so much. IMO, I will repeat Wil Myers makes the most sense. Solid bat with some power, and can play solid defense. I like him better than Martinez, who is pretty much locked in to DH only.

2} NO to Pagan in the pen. And I'd say no to Megill right now too. We just have to have at least one long/middle innings arm to bridge the gap to the end of the pen, if not two. Good chance that can be Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or another rotation piece sliding in to the pen for now. 

Why not use the $ available to add a quality back end 7-8th inning arm to deepen the pen? I thin k Alcala could make a big difference this year. But why not a SECOND solid FA arm so we don't have to just automatically depend on Alcala being 100% back and ready to go from day one?

3} I DON'T want Swanson as a consellation prize. I think he's a really nice player and looking at his stats, he's really not a 1 year wonder. But from all reports he's no longer 6-7yrs at $150M. Now he's 9-10yrs and a good $200M. Does the FO really like him? Is he a high quality long term option? If unsure, just stop! 

4} I wouldn't mind another SS option to make Farmer a super utility player, OR, a good utility player to join Gordon in that role. Celestino should begin the season in St Paul. He's been rushed twice and Gordon is pretty solid in CF for days off here and there. Let Celestino get his act together.

5} Hugely unsure about adding to the rotation if Rodon is out. I really, really like and want Rodon. I wanted him last year. But $200M and 7yrs? I just don't know that it's going to happen. After that, I'm leaning toward trusting in better health with the arms we have and provide opportunities for our young depth as they arise. But I'm on open on the rotation add. Unfortunately, I don't know that there's anyone I like or think might make any kind of difference...other than Rodon...except maybe Eovaldi. IF he's healthy. But is he really better than the arms we already have?

I guess I'm a bit of an optimist. I don't think this team is ready for a WS challenge. But if we can just have normal health this year, I like the rotation arms and love the potential of our young hitters, as ell as a rebound for Polanco. I'm OK with adding through FA if the deals seem smart. But I don't want to add just to add. And I don't want to sell the farm after moving some quality young talent last year if I can help it.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

No need to projecting the roster cause this team is done signing players cause  Vazquez only signing to the major league roster 

I love this meme, it’s an annual tradition. Fans: “They’re not going to spend more than they did last year, they won’t sign any FAs” - then suddenly they sign Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, Lance Lynn and they set a new record of payroll. Happens every year but some just don’t seem to realize it.

This approach isn’t exactly leading to any more wins, but they’re going to sign more players. That isn’t up for debate.

[EGFTShaw]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Looking back a year ago, we were much worse with a lot of holes.

OF- about the same but with less experience

INF- Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson & Sano

Catcher- Garver, Jeffers & Rortvedt (we later lost Garver & Rortvedt )

Rotation- rookies Ryan, Ober + Bundy

BP- Rodgers, Alcala, rookies Jax & Duran (we lost Rodgers for Pagan & Alcala to IL)

This year our biggest hole right now is finding a platoon SS w/ Farmer to hold down the fort until Lewis is ready.

Thank Odin for some non-ChickenLittleSkyIsFalling/Fallen rhetoric.

We are better off at this point this year than last.  Far better.

Don't overhype the Central Division foes.  They aren't that good, and we aren't that bad.

I am not sure what I will do with the money at this point.  Maybe Swanson? Maybe Rodon?

Or with more coming off our books next year, save for next year.  There is no need to sell off what we have and given the level of experience and low-vs-high value of who may be of interest we are not getting back Top Shelf prospects.

We have the #5 pick.  You can't trade the pick, but as we found out this past year, you can trade the player from that pick.

The expectations are right where they need to be for a team to excel. 

To revisit the oft mentioned Ace.

The Ace does NOT need to be lights out every night, swing-n-miss, lowest ERA since forever kind of guy.  The Ace can be Jack Morris.  The Bulldog so stubborn he caused Tom Kelly to say, "its just another game" when referencing Game 7 of the World Series when leaving in his starting pitcher.

It seems so many are perpetually stuck in a Doom and Gloom world.  Would I have liked to have C4 sign with us? Damn straight.  Would I have liked for a top line pitcher to be signed, absolutely.  But damn it is not the end of the world.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, EGFTShaw said:

Thank Odin for some non-ChickenLittleSkyIsFalling/Fallen rhetoric.

We are better off at this point this year than last.  Far better.

Don't overhype the Central Division foes.  They aren't that good, and we aren't that bad.

I am not sure what I will do with the money at this point.  Maybe Swanson? Maybe Rodon?

Or with more coming off our books next year, save for next year.  There is no need to sell off what we have and given the level of experience and low-vs-high value of who may be of interest we are not getting back Top Shelf prospects.

We have the #5 pick.  You can't trade the pick, but as we found out this past year, you can trade the player from that pick.

The expectations are right where they need to be for a team to excel. 

To revisit the oft mentioned Ace.

The Ace does NOT need to be lights out every night, swing-n-miss, lowest ERA since forever kind of guy.  The Ace can be Jack Morris.  The Bulldog so stubborn he caused Tom Kelly to say, "its just another game" when referencing Game 7 of the World Series when leaving in his starting pitcher.

It seems so many are perpetually stuck in a Doom and Gloom world.  Would I have liked to have C4 sign with us? Damn straight.  Would I have liked for a top line pitcher to be signed, absolutely.  But damn it is not the end of the world.

 

they don't have CC or Urshela, and they are better? They better not be trading the player they pick #5. 

The team doesn't "save for next year". They run year by year. They've said that publicly, and acted that way. I guess you could just give everyone a raise this year, and a lower contract next year? But no team does that.......

Which available pitcher do you think is even Morris?

[EGFTShaw]

55 minutes ago, TNTwinsFan said:

I'm not signing Dansby if he's asking for close to $200m. Dude's 28 and *just* put it all together. I'd rather see the Twins roll with Farmer until Lewis returns. I'm also not spending on Carlos Rodon. Trade a couple outfielders and some other assets (Arraez, Polanco) and reset a bit this year. Maybe focus on locking up some of the new pitching the Twins received in last year's trades and find out what you have with Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Martin, etc.

Correct,

More so with Dansby than Correa, you absolutely have to have an upper limit you will not exceed.  I think the same is true of Rodon.  Rodon isn't Mad Max Scherzer or Justin Time Verlander.  Heck he isn't Jacob "This Pitch Has Been" DeGrom-ed.

All for them getting what they can, but we have to have a set price/year limit on these two.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Question: Whatever happened to using Kepler as Buxton's centerfield backup? Yeah, he still maybe can't hit but he's better defensively than Celestino isn't he? That would mean leaving Celestino in St. Paul and giving Wallner a shot in right since Buxton will probably miss his usual 80 games or so.

Just wondering.

They do use him as Buxton's backup.

But that also takes away a top notch RF-er.  

The choice I suspect has been Celestino vs Kepler's replacement as for who adds the best opportunity

[EGFTShaw]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

they don't have CC or Urshela, and they are better? They better not be trading the player they pick #5. 

The team doesn't "save for next year". They run year by year. They've said that publicly, and acted that way. I guess you could just give everyone a raise this year, and a lower contract next year? But no team does that.......

Which available pitcher do you think is even Morris?

It was at this time.

C4 wasn't signed until late spring.

Urshela wasn't obtained until late spring.

At this time a year ago, we had signed Buxton to extension and the "hot" prospect (reclamation league), Bundy.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

It was at this time.

C4 wasn't signed until late spring.

Urshela wasn't obtained until late spring.

At this time a year ago, we had signed Buxton to extension and the "hot" prospect (reclamation league), Bundy.

Sorry, missed that part! 

[EGFTShaw]

19 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

As of today, right now, this is probably right. 

What I think should be done going forward?

1} Get that RH bat we need so much. IMO, I will repeat Wil Myers makes the most sense. Solid bat with some power, and can play solid defense. I like him better than Martinez, who is pretty much locked in to DH only.

2} NO to Pagan in the pen. And I'd say no to Megill right now too. We just have to have at least one long/middle innings arm to bridge the gap to the end of the pen, if not two. Good chance that can be Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or another rotation piece sliding in to the pen for now. 

Why not use the $ available to add a quality back end 7-8th inning arm to deepen the pen? I thin k Alcala could make a big difference this year. But why not a SECOND solid FA arm so we don't have to just automatically depend on Alcala being 100% back and ready to go from day one?

3} I DON'T want Swanson as a consellation prize. I think he's a really nice player and looking at his stats, he's really not a 1 year wonder. But from all reports he's no longer 6-7yrs at $150M. Now he's 9-10yrs and a good $200M. Does the FO really like him? Is he a high quality long term option? If unsure, just stop! 

4} I wouldn't mind another SS option to make Farmer a super utility player, OR, a good utility player to join Gordon in that role. Celestino should begin the season in St Paul. He's been rushed twice and Gordon is pretty solid in CF for days off here and there. Let Celestino get his act together.

5} Hugely unsure about adding to the rotation if Rodon is out. I really, really like and want Rodon. I wanted him last year. But $200M and 7yrs? I just don't know that it's going to happen. After that, I'm leaning toward trusting in better health with the arms we have and provide opportunities for our young depth as they arise. But I'm on open on the rotation add. Unfortunately, I don't know that there's anyone I like or think might make any kind of difference...other than Rodon...except maybe Eovaldi. IF he's healthy. But is he really better than the arms we already have?

I guess I'm a bit of an optimist. I don't think this team is ready for a WS challenge. But if we can just have normal health this year, I like the rotation arms and love the potential of our young hitters, as ell as a rebound for Polanco. I'm OK with adding through FA if the deals seem smart. But I don't want to add just to add. And I don't want to sell the farm after moving some quality young talent last year if I can help it.

Well, there are least 2 of us...optimists.

1) ✔️ Just not sure who.  NOT a DH only type of guy.  We have plenty of bats to fill that role.
2) ?? (best I can find for a waffle...) Pagan has to EARN his spot.  Put talent into practice and we will see.
3) Constellation prize or Consolation prize.   Maybe both.  Our eyes were in the skies for C4 so a Consolation Constellation prize. I want to like DS, but I can't bring myself to pay that much for him
4) ✔️✔️✔️?? (means I agree Strongly) Even if this person sucks/tanks, at least we have options.  I like Farmer as Super Ute
5)??

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I love this meme, it’s an annual tradition. Fans: “They’re not going to spend more than they did last year, they won’t sign any FAs” - then suddenly they sign Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, Lance Lynn and they set a new record of payroll. Happens every year but some just don’t seem to realize it.

This approach isn’t exactly leading to any more wins, but they’re going to sign more players. That isn’t up for debate.

Oh, they'll sign some players......but they are more likely Lynn level than CC level at this point, IMO.

[Major League Ready]

Kepler and Maeda get traded if they can find a decent return.