The Minnesota Twins' Front Office Played Themselves

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Signing CC isn't about going all in for this year....he is likely to be elite for 5-7 years......

My point is they never go all in no matter what. To be honest this time I am more forgiving of it this time, than I was in 06, 10, 19.

We had full teams then. This team has no bullpen, a staff full of #3-4 starters and what amounts to below average defense in the infield and outfield if Buxton is not in the game. 

At this point if I am the FO, I am going "all in" to get pitching. This means trading away anyone and everyone for top end guys. I am not talking about BS guys like Mahle or Gray. I am talking about guys like Milwaukees starters, or bringing in Rodon. Lopez or Alcantara from the Marlins. 

Instead we will see them trade some marginal players for more pitching "depth" that makes no discernable difference. Probably will sign another reclamation project pitcher as well. I guess whatever, one of these years Livan Hernandez or Sydney Ponson is going to lead us to a world series. 

They can run out all the Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis's that you want, until you quit throwing out on the mound a bunch of Nick Blackburn clones or guys in your bullpen like Pagan's it won't matter

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I know I have been criticized for not supporting the huge contracts, but ESPN's article on aging really hits the points I believe.  I know this is subscription based, but this short statement "But at age 35, the group averaged 3.4 WAR, and at age 36, it was down to 2.2 WAR"  captures the essence of what I see.  

As a person who has spent his life guiding people I can tell you the body just does not hold up no matter our attitudes.  I do not mind short term big payments, but the league has gone nuts.  If this is to avoid the luxury tax this year, it just adds to it in future years.  

When I look at the chart that ESPN put together the only players worth some value after age 36 are DHs.  "Among all shortstops since 1969, only 10 produced at least 20 career WAR from age 30 on."  

 

Would you rather have ten good to elite years of CC and not signing a Gray level free agent in years 11-13 .....or have two or three second and third tier free agents every year? This appears to be your choices if you won't sign elite players. 

[Battle ur tail off]

43 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I know I have been criticized for not supporting the huge contracts, but ESPN's article on aging really hits the points I believe.  I know this is subscription based, but this short statement "But at age 35, the group averaged 3.4 WAR, and at age 36, it was down to 2.2 WAR"  captures the essence of what I see.  

As a person who has spent his life guiding people I can tell you the body just does not hold up no matter our attitudes.  I do not mind short term big payments, but the league has gone nuts.  If this is to avoid the luxury tax this year, it just adds to it in future years.  

When I look at the chart that ESPN put together the only players worth some value after age 36 are DHs.  "Among all shortstops since 1969, only 10 produced at least 20 career WAR from age 30 on."  

 

Making long term deals like that one is going to hurt in the back half. It is also acknowledging that as a small market team, you will probably be punting on seasons when that dropoff happens. But in the meantime, you will get outstanding production at the start. 

Now I am not saying it would have been smart to sign Correa for that type of deal, but I would be OK with the Twins trying to go all out to win once in a while, all the while knowing that rebuilds will all but be guaranteed after a period of success. 

What they have done doesn't work. They don't pursue FA aggressively, they don't draft aggressively and they don't trade aggressively. Everything is done for "sustainable success" or "payroll flexibilty" or "team control" or "positional flexibility". It is all a joke a way to get everyone to buy into the fact that they want to always be decent, but never a real threat.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Would you rather have ten good to elite years of CC and not signing a Gray level free agent in years 11-13 .....or have two or three second and third tier free agents every year? This appears to be your choices if you won't sign elite players. 

Wish I could follow your reasoning and agree with you, but we definitely see this FA market differently.  10 elite years of CC is not something I expect.  Good luck.  

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Counter offer; I'll give you 20% under market value, a la our beloved Twins. How could you say no? Have your people contact mine. 

You're the one comfortable with overpaying as long you get what you want, I'm just willing to give the extra years to pay it off...

[darin617]

Do Boras and Correa at least send the Twins a nice gift basket for making the Giants pay up?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Wish I could follow your reasoning and agree with you, but we definitely see this FA market differently.  10 elite years of CC is not something I expect.  Good luck.  

Well, if you figure that the contract adds no value in years 11-13....you are giving up one average FA in those years....would you rather have CC for 10 years and lose out on a Gray level FA for years 11-13.....or have three mediocre to ok FAs for the next 13 years.

[cballhitball]

This wasn’t Joe Mauer giving a hometown discount.  CC had no reason to play here other than money which makes this Twins 285 mil offer such a head scratcher.  Rodon never wanted to be here so its no surprise he is a Yankee.  Now the Twins will have to overpay for Dansby Swanson if they truly want him.  To top all that there is no pitching available which means the Twins may have to shitcan the season before it starts with trades.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Arraez was at his worst in September when the Twins lost the division.....but you love him and hate CC due to when they hit?

They were in first place with the help of Arraez hitting. When were they in 1st place due to Correa hitting? He didn't carry his share of the load until it was too little too late. Can't remember how many times I saw him strikeout when they needed clutch hits from him in the first half of the year. He was also among the top 3 in grounding into doubleplays. 

Never said I hated him.... just don't think he is anywhere close to being worth what he was and is now getting paid.

[Twodogs]

I think with the injury history that the Twins have had the last few years that they should stay away from making a big splash and start trying to pick up competent players for depth.  Pick up a good 4th Ofer instead of running Cave out there.  Pick up a good middle infielder that can rotate around the diamond and find 2 or 3 competitive relief pitching arms.  If they just go after depth they won't spend a bunch and when guys get hurt they won't be struggling to find someone to run out there every day for a few weeks while someone is recovering.  My observation at this point is dont make a big splash just to make a big splash.  I mean if Rodon was still available I would have gone after him, but since he isn't then get some depth and go with what we have projected as with our young guys.

[Irishman]

FO is a big mess!   

[Morneau for Gov]

I think a 13-year contract for nearly $30 million per season sounds insane. Would you give that out if it was your money? The #1 issue for the Twins the last couple seasons is injuries. They have a fair amount of talent ready for the big leagues but have had almost everyone injured. It won't matter who they sign if everyone they need gets hurt for half the year! Unfortunately, that puts them in rebuilding mode. You can't build for a season if you don't know what you have. Stand pat, hope for health early and if there are more injuries trade away your assets and hit the reset button. 2019 was beautiful, but the young generation coming up and the pitchers have shown to be brittle. Time to look at what you have objectively and move forward accordingly. This team is not one ace away. They need a whole deck they can count on to show up. 

I have no idea what the front office was doing last season trading away double-digit prospects during an injury plagued season. Befuddling. 

[mikelink45]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well, if you figure that the contract adds no value in years 11-13....you are giving up one average FA in those years....would you rather have CC for 10 years and lose out on a Gray level FA for years 11-13.....or have three mediocre to ok FAs for the next 13 years.

I do not want a 13 year contract for anyone.  Over pay, but make it a reasonable length.

[Trov]

I get the point of the article, but what if we would have went with so Bogarts, then Correa signs for close to what we were willing to offer, then the argument would be they acted too soon. There is no right way or wrong way to act in these situations.

Also, I do not know if Swanson gets above a 3 WAR, he did it 1 time in his career, last year.  I do not expect any player to match their outlier year, even more so in a contract year. 

[Mike h]

Did SF skyrocket their offer because there was another, better offer than the Twins? Can't say for sure if course but I doubt it. Remember Correa's quote about shopping at the Dior store?  In essence he said if you want something you simply pay the price. So I bet he and Boras simply said it would cost $360M. SF maybe blinked a couple times but never gulped, and then said OK.

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, mnfireman said:

You're the one comfortable with overpaying as long you get what you want, I'm just willing to give the extra years to pay it off...

You've got it backwards. I'm not willing to overpay, I'm willing to meet the price that the market dictates while you're championing below market offers. 

To continue your home buying analogy; the length of my mortgage as the buyer is irrelevant to you. All that matters is agreed upon sale price. So, I'll ask again, would you sell me your home at 20% less than what equivalent homes are currently going for? If the market dictates that your home is worth $350K, and I offer $280K, you wouldn't be underwhelmed? You would seriously entertain my offer?

[TaterTot]

Come back here 4 months later and just laugh at how we thought it was all over.