2013 Draft: The Mocks

[Oxtung]

Matt Garrioch looked at draft success rates from '87-'01, so that doesn't entirely answer your question, but he found that success rates of pitchers taken in the first round were pretty much the same for pitchers taken from HS and 4yr colleges.

 

He found that ~26% of college pitchers and ~23% of HS pitchers became occasional all-stars or better. Another ~4% of College pitchers and 9% of HS pitchers became solid regulars. You can check out more on his google docs page here:

 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2IzMTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US

[InfraRen]

^Interesting!

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Another mock draft from bleacher reports and this one also has the Twins taking Stewart at #4. Here is the link:

 

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Landing Spots for Top Pitchers in First Round | Bleacher Report

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Another mock note. A blogger at SB Nation put together a Consensus mock draft list where he took 5 of the top mockers and figured out who's name is linked where the most. Link below:

 

MLB 2013 draft: Consensus mock draft list - SBNation.com

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Geeze, busy day for mockers. There is ANOTHER mock draft over at bleacher report but this one is one of those annoying ass slide shows..... They have the Twins taking Kohl Stewart, seems to be the popular pick, and here is what they have to say.

 

Picking fourth means the Minnesota Twins will likely miss out on the draft's top three prospects: Appel, Gray and Bryant.On the plus side, it frees them from the shackles of having to pick one of those players. From their spot, they could go in any number of directions.If they are seeking a seasoned hitter, UNC's Colin Moran will be there for the taking. If they prefer another high-upside player in the Byron Buxton mold, there's two waiting to be plucked in Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.More than likely, Minnesota will be going after the top available pitcher. Right now, it looks like they could have eyes for prep right-hander Kohl Stewart.Stewart is a pretty good consolation prize, offering mid-90s heat and arguably the best breaking ball in the draft. He is an exceptional athlete who has front-of-the-rotation stuff.On a related note, the Twins happen to lack a true ace.This is the perfect example of need meeting best available player.

 

Full link below:

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Best-Case Scenarios for All 30 Teams' First-Round Picks | Bleacher Report

[InfraRen]

Geeze, busy day for mockers. There is ANOTHER mock draft over at bleacher report but this one is one of those annoying ass slide shows..... They have the Twins taking Kohl Stewart, seems to be the popular pick, and here is what they have to say.

 

Picking fourth means the Minnesota Twins will likely miss out on the draft's top three prospects: Appel, Gray and Bryant.On the plus side, it frees them from the shackles of having to pick one of those players. From their spot, they could go in any number of directions.If they are seeking a seasoned hitter, UNC's Colin Moran will be there for the taking. If they prefer another high-upside player in the Byron Buxton mold, there's two waiting to be plucked in Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.More than likely, Minnesota will be going after the top available pitcher. Right now, it looks like they could have eyes for prep right-hander Kohl Stewart.Stewart is a pretty good consolation prize, offering mid-90s heat and arguably the best breaking ball in the draft. He is an exceptional athlete who has front-of-the-rotation stuff.On a related note, the Twins happen to lack a true ace.This is the perfect example of need meeting best available player.

 

Full link below:

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Best-Case Scenarios for All 30 Teams' First-Round Picks | Bleacher Report

 

Pleeaaase.

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Christopher Crawford released his new mock draft and has the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:

 

The Mock 2013: Volume VI |

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Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9322119/houston-astros-take-colin-moran-mark-appel-second-mock-draft-2013-mlb-draft

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SI released their second mock draft today and it is....well just as interesting as it's first mock. Bryant going #1 to the Astros and the Twins taking Frazier at #4. Link below:

 

Mock Draft: Bryant, Gray, Appel still in running for top pick - MLB - SI.com

[SDTwinsFan]

At this point, I have no idea what to think about the player picked at #4. If Moran really goes #1, though, that makes things a little more fun.

[Twins Twerp]

If gray is available...boner

[Pitz]

Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray.

 

That seems crazy that the Twins would still take Stewart over Gray, but I think it also says a lot about how strongly Law feels about the Twins taking Stewart.

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That seems crazy that the Twins would still take Stewart over Gray, but I think it also says a lot about how strongly Law feels about the Twins taking Stewart.

 

It is a very interesting situation. I personal prefer Gray but wouldn't be upset if they actually went Stewart. I don't care if a guy is a HS pitcher or a college pitcher. If this ended up being the case I would support the scouts on their choice.

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If gray is available...boner

 

Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

[InfraRen]

Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

 

AND if May can get his act together?! 3 starters spittin fire up on the mound? Unheard of! Round it off with Gibby and (insert name here) - cool!

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Two more updates. Today Mayo released his second mock draft and he too now has the Twins taking Stewart. Here is what he had to say:

"The Twins have liked Stewart's power right arm all along and will have a comfort level that they can sign him away from Texas A&M football before he commits."

 

Link below:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&content_id=48991342&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

The second article isn't a mock but a study of 27 mocks (not including Mayo/Law's today). It shows the median, mode, worst, best, and average of the players taken in the top 10. Very interesting read. Link below:

 

85% Sports Mock Draft Value Board - A Different Approach - Minor League Ball

[John Bonnes]

I'm sorry, but if Gray is available, there is no way they take Stewart. Howeer, it is good to hear that the Twins are comfortable with Stewart's price tag.

 

BTW, is anyone else surprised that the Rockies seem fixated on adding a hitter if Appel or Gray are on the board when they pick? They could use pitching as much as anyone, I think.

[DutchFarmer]

Food for thought...

 

Doing a quick check of accuracy of last years' final mocks. KLaw, SI, and Baseball America all had Appel going #1 with only KLaw seeming to have significant doubt about Houston going with him.

 

Just thought I'd throw that out there for everyone who thinks that the draft will go a certain way (i.e. some combo of Gray, Appel, Bryant going 1,2,3).

[John Bonnes]

I'll add that I think Law's logic for the Astros going with Moran seems rock solid:

 

the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it. The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.79 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.

 

It seems odd, but the way this draft works with slots, etc, really seems to encourage the top teams to consider going for a player much less than slots like Houston did last year and might do this year. At least unless there is a clear-cut star like Harper or Strassburg.

 

Boy, would this be good news for the Twins. I'd be doing backflips. And I'm WAY too big to do backflips.

[Carneal&Gordon]

I think Law is very dialed in and if his mock has the Twins taking Stewart over Gray if both are available, I think it's a strong indicator that very well may happen. It also means if Gray isn't available the Twins will still get their true target in Stewart.

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Bleacher Report had another mock today with this one rt throwing a change up. They have the Twins taking Frazier at #4.

The “five-tool player” label is used far too often when referring to MLB prospects, but Clint Frazier deserves the distinction.The 6’1”, 190-pound outfielder needs some time to grow—both physically and as a baseball player—but the Twins are known for that kind of development with their early round prospects. He may not be ready for the bigs in the next two years, but he’ll be a tremendous player when he is.

 

Article below:

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Latest Projections for Baseball's Best Prospects | Bleacher Report

 

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BA released their third mock and once again they have the Twins taking Stewart. Here is what they had to say:

 

If Minnesota can’t get one of the big three, it will take Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart. If Stewart’s price tag scares the Twins—he’s a Texas A&M quarterback recruit, though I can’t see him turning down top-10-pick money—they could go in the other direction and save cash for later by taking a discount with Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefty Trey Ball and Moran are two more fallback plans.

 

Mock Draft 3.0: Holding Pattern - BaseballAmerica.com

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

 

I'd rather see that hypothetical rotation with one of the inevitable soft-tossers in between. I like a rotation that varies from power to control pitcher to mess with hitters timing.

[maxisagod]

I'm sorry, but if Gray is available, there is no way they take Stewart...

I have a feeling the Twins board looks slightly different then the consensus. It's sounds like they like Reese McGuire 4-5 spots higher on the Twins rankings then most other public rankings. Moran has never been connected to the Twins, even though he's getting looked at by the Astros and the Cubs. I think there's a chance Stewart might be as high as #2 on their board. So the Gray vs Stewart choice might not be a slam dunk decision for the Twins as it would be for most of us.

[InfraRen]

MLBInsider posted a new mock late last night: The Mock 2013: Volume VII |

 

First 4:

 

[TABLE=width: 1]

[TH=colspan: 4, align: center]No.1; Houston Astros[/TH]

Name

[TH=width: 25%, bgcolor: #C3D9FF, align: left]Position[/TH]

[TH=width: 25%, align: left]School[/TH]

[TH=align: left]Slot[/TH]

[TD=align: left]Jonathan Gray[/TD]

[TD=align: left]RHP[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Oklahoma[/TD]

[TD=align: left]$7.7904M[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 4, align: left]This selection is still very much in the air; and it likely will be all the way up until draft day. Colin Moran is very much in play, and Kris Bryant is still being discussed. At the end of the day though, I still think Houston takes Gray, but absolutely nothing would surprise me at this point.[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 1]

[TH=colspan: 4, align: center]No.2; Chicago Cubs[/TH]

Name

[TH=width: 25%, bgcolor: #C3D9FF, align: left]Position[/TH]

[TH=width: 25%, align: left]School[/TH]

[TH=align: left]Slot[/TH]

[TD=align: left]Mark Appel[/TD]

[TD=align: left]RHP[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Stanford[/TD]

[TD=align: left]$6.7084M[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 4, align: left]All spring long, we have heard that Chicago had narrowed their options to Appel and Gray, with the Cubs selecting whichever right-hander the Astros passed on. I still think that’s the likely scenario, with the only possible caveat being that Appel prices himself out of the Windy City. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and if the Cubs are lucky enough to get Appel they’ll have a guy who can compete for a spot in their rotation as soon as next year.[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 1]

[TH=colspan: 4, align: center]No.3; Colorado Rockies[/TH]

Name

[TH=width: 25%, bgcolor: #C3D9FF, align: left]Position[/TH]

[TH=width: 25%, align: left]School[/TH]

[TH=align: left]Slot[/TH]

[TD=align: left]Kris Bryant[/TD]

[TD=align: left]3B/RF[/TD]

[TD=align: left]San Diego[/TD]

[TD=align: left]$5.6264M[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 4, align: left]The Rockies have been attached to bats all spring, but if Appel or Gray were to fall into their laps I think they’d jump all over it. Bryant is the best hitter in this class, so this would be a very nice selection for the Rockies. I’ve also heard Austin Meadows, Moran and Dominic Smith as possibilities here.[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 1]

[TH=colspan: 4, align: center]No.4; Minnesota Twins[/TH]

Name

[TH=width: 25%, bgcolor: #C3D9FF, align: left]Position[/TH]

[TH=width: 25%, align: left]School[/TH]

[TH=align: left]Slot[/TH]

[TD=align: left]Kohl Stewart[/TD]

[TD=align: left]RHP[/TD]

[TD=align: left]St. Pius X High School (Tex.)[/TD]

[TD=align: left]$4.5444M[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 4, align: left]I think Stewart is — and should be — the selection, but I’m not as confident about this as I was a few weeks ago. The Twins are still very much considering Reese McGuire with the fourth pick, and I think they would consider Kris Bryant if he fell to this spot. Minnesota also would likely snag Gray if he were to fall to this point. [/TD]

[/TABLE]

[InfraRen]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA1m

Four of us @baseballAmerica editors took turns making 1st-rd picks for each club. Here's how it turned out: http://ht.ly/lEuW5 #mlbdraft

 

Editors Make Calls In BA Experts Draft

 

June 3, 2013 by Staff Report

 

With the draft coming up on Thursday, we wanted to take yet another look at how the first round might unfold, this time if four of our draft experts were making the picks. This isn’t our projection of how the first round will play out, but rather who editor John Manuel, executive editor Jim Callis and assistant editors Conor Glassey and Nathan Rode would take with picks 1-33. After the order of rotation was selected from the Baseball America candy bowl/random draft order generator, the four experts alternated choices, balancing their own preferences with each club’s needs and financial situation. Rode won the right to lead things off:

1. ASTROS (Nathan): There’s a certain level of pressure that comes with the first pick and despite the overall feeling that this is a down year in the draft, there are plenty of very good options at the top. I’m a big fan of the high school outfielders in Georgia—Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows—but I can’t pull the trigger on one of them over the college options here. I’m taking Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray. I like the size and stuff, with the fastball life being the ever-so-slight separator between him and Stanford righty Mark Appel. It would be fun to see San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant’s power in Minute Maid Park, but you can never have enough pitching. I don’t expect a Carlos Correa discount on Gray, but think I could get enough to give me some wiggle room on later picks: JONATHAN GRAY.

2. CUBS (Jim). You’re not going to draft for need at the top, but the Cubs’ biggest need dovetails nicely with the elite prospects in this year’s draft. They need pitching and there are two obvious frontline starters in this crop. I’m mildly tempted by Bryant, but the choice comes down to Gray and Appel, and the Astros have made it easy here by taking Gray off the board. I like Gray a little more because I think his stuff is more electric when he and Appel are at their best, but I’m happy with Appel at No. 2. He has more polish, a deeper repertoire and a longer track record, and he has dominated this season like scouts always hoped he would: MARK APPEL.

3. ROCKIES (Conor). If the first two picks off the board are the two power pitchers, the third pick becomes a slam dunk, in my opinion. Bryant has the best usable power in the draft and hit 31 home runs this season, the most in the college BBCOR era. He’s cut down on his strikeouts and can hit the ball out to all fields. While he has the athleticism to handle third base, I would stick him in right field and let him mash his way to the middle of the Rockies’ lineup. He has the potential to be their best power hitter since Matt Holliday: KRIS BRYANT.

4: TWINS (John). It’s my fate to have the fourth pick in a three-player draft. So be it; I’m not going off the board with this pick. Texas prep righthander Kohl Stewart is out of the region I report on, but that hasn’t stopped the buzz from spilling over to scouts and crosscheckers I’ve talked to. The consensus seems to be that Stewart has similar stuff to Appel and Gray with a bit more athleticism, and he seems to have dispelled some early reports of shaky makeup. The Twins need power arms, and Stewart gives them one: KOHL STEWART.

For the rest:

Editors Make Calls In BA Experts Draft - BaseballAmerica.com

[Oldgoat_MN]

Reading other posts here on TD it appears that many of the very best pitchers were drafted as HS prospects. Also that the rate of success (which is poor, overall) is really no better for a college arm than a HS arm.

 

I am all for Stewart. A 3 player draft?

His is the arm that could make that line untrue.

[InfraRen]

Keith Law 3.0 Mock just posted, anyone have Insider?

 

Prep right-hander Phil Bickford jumps into top 10 in latest mock draft - MLB Draft - ESPN

[jaspatrick]

Keith Law 3.0 Mock just posted, anyone have Insider?

 

Prep right-hander Phil Bickford jumps into top 10 in latest mock draft - MLB Draft - ESPN

 

He has the top four as Moran, Appel, Bryant, and us taking Gray. He says if the big 3 are gone when we pick, it'll be Stewart or McGuire. With us passing on Stewart, he has him falling all the way to 15.

[markos]

In Law's mock draft, two other high school pitchers (Phil Bickford #8 and Trey Ball #10) selected before Stewart. I'm not sure if this is a significant adjustment in Law's opinion of Stewart, or just a quirk of a mock draft with the Twins able to select Gray.