2013 Draft: The Mocks

[nicksaviking]

So, this is a poster's mock on Sickels' site after doing a long study of drafting trends of each front office:

 

Cookiedabookie's 2013 MLB Mock Draft - Minor League Ball

 

His draft would have the Twins getting Gray and Windle, which would be a huge steal for the Twinkies!

 

I was going to accuse this guy of being an obvious Twins fan but it looks like most of his contributions on SB Nation involve the Yankees. So it's legitimate. Legitimately insane.

[cmb0252]

I was going to accuse this guy of being an obvious Twins fan but it looks like most of his contributions on SB Nation involve the Yankees. So it's legitimate. Legitimately insane.

 

Haha, legitimately insane is a good description.

[Mike Sixel]

Christopher Crawford released his 5th mock today and has the Twins taking Stewart. To see the full mock click below:

 

The Mock 2013: Volume V |

 

Moran going right after the Twins? Are we off on him?

[cmb0252]

Moran going right after the Twins? Are we off on him?

 

There have been a ton of Moran to Indians on mocks so maybe. What he lacks in pure power and defense he makes up for in hit tool and stupid crazy Bb/k ratios. Problem is, 3B needs power and at least passable defense.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It would be awesome but it isn't going to happen. The Astros are just doing their homework. The three teams that draft in front of the Twins need pitching just as bad, if not more than, the Twins. We have Gibson and Meyers who are better pitching prospects than anyone the cubs, Astros, or Rockies have. Once again, getting Gray or Appel would be great but it is a pipe dream.

 

Honestly I think Stewart to Houston makes more sense than anything. Their new core is a bit further away than ours. Appel/Gray would be up in the bigs pitching well for some bad teams. That just wastes service time and by the time the core gets up and gets established, those guys are looking a couple more years of arb at best. Stewart would take a bit longer to develop, which works for them a bit better IMO.

 

The problem is that I still don't see Appel or Gray getting past Col and Chi... Col might might might take Bryant, but I have a tough time believing they wouldn't take the pitcher in that scenario.

[jaspatrick]

It can be argued that Stewart, Gray, and Appel have similar ceilings, but Stewart, as a high school pitcher, comes with infinitely more risk. That's why a high school right hander has never gone #1 in the draft, but college pitchers routinely go #1, and that extra risk is why Appel and Gray will before Stewart this year.

[kab21]

Honestly I think Stewart to Houston makes more sense than anything. Their new core is a bit further away than ours. Appel/Gray would be up in the bigs pitching well for some bad teams. That just wastes service time and by the time the core gets up and gets established, those guys are looking a couple more years of arb at best. Stewart would take a bit longer to develop, which works for them a bit better IMO.

 

The problem is that I still don't see Appel or Gray getting past Col and Chi... Col might might might take Bryant, but I have a tough time believing they wouldn't take the pitcher in that scenario.

 

It doesn't make sense at all nor is it really true. Aside from the 3 2012 draftees almost all of Houston's good prospects are starting at High A and could be in AA this year. Additionally it doesn't make sense to pass on superior talent unless there are substantial savings. Last year the Astros saved considerable money and got the guy that was probably #2 on their draft board. Stewart hasn't given any indication that he will be an easy sign and there's a significant drop from Appel/Gray to Stewart. The two college pitchers are very likely usable MLB starters at the very worst while Stewart might not even get out of AA.

[InfraRen]

Frazier, Stewart, Meadows - as of today is probably my order of preference. Stewart would prolly be first if the whole signing issue wasn't such a dark cloud.

[InfraRen]

New Jim Callis Mock coming today, will make sure to post when it hits.

[cmb0252]

Bleacher report released a new mock draft a few days ago. Both of their experts have the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:

 

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Bleacher Report's 1st-Round Projection Battle | Bleacher Report

[InfraRen]

^ I like it. The Moran #1 dream is fun to dream about, but I doubt it actually happens. If so, I think Stewart is our guy. As long as we don't do the dumb McGuire thing...

[InfraRen]

Jim Callis (Baseball America) Mock Draft 2.0 (Top 5)

 

Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea has gone from a potential No. 1 overall pick to the biggest question mark in the 2013 draft. After displaying an explosive mid-90s fastball in the Cape Cod League last summer, he has battled ankle and hip injuries and pitched at 88-93 mph for much of the spring.

Teams picking outside the top 10 initially didn’t spend a lot of time scouting Manaea because they figured they wouldn’t have a chance to select him. When his draft stock began to tip, those clubs had to scramble to evaluate him.

http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/sean-manaea-2013-300x211.jpg

Sean Manaea

Scouts flocked to see Manaea pitch Tuesday morning in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder while warming up before the first inning. He left without throwing an official pitch, and whether he’ll take the mound again before the draft is in question. The Sycamores need a victory on Friday to reach the MVC tournament finals on Saturday, when Manaea conceivably could pitch. Indiana State won’t advance to the NCAA regional playoffs without winning their conference tourney.

The Boras Corp. is advising Manaea, so teams worry that his asking price could be higher than they believe his spring performance would merit. Add in the health questions, and there’s no telling where he might go in the draft. Manaea looked dominant in the Cape League but carries more risk than some clubs will be comfortable with in the first round. Scott Boras has cut several lucrative deals with the Nationals, but their first choice doesn’t come until the No. 62 overall pick and they have MLB’s smallest bonus pool for the first 10 rounds ($2,737,200).

There’s never enough college pitching available to sate clubs, and Manaea’s cloudy status is a blow in a year when the depth of first-round-caliber college arms is shallower than usual. The good news on that front is that two more likely first-rounders have emerged, with righthanders Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts) and Alex Balog (San Francisco) rising up draft boards.

Two weeks before the draft, here’s our forecast for the first round:

http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/HoustonAstros.png1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston has narrowed its field to five: the top two college pitchers (Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray and Stanford’s Mark Appel), the top two college bats (San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran) and a fifth option, presumed to be Georgia high school outfielder Clint Frazier.

Rumors persist that the Astros might prefer to redistribute bonus-pool money by striking a deal with one of the hitters, and owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow have been spotted scouting Moran. Most industry sources, however, continue to believe the choice will come down to Gray or Appel, whom Houston also considered with the No. 1 pick last year. They’re close enough in talent that asking price could be a deciding factor, though either will command significantly more than the $4.8 million Carlos Correa got as the top choice in 2013.

PROJECTED PICK: Jonathan Gray (Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel).

http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_cubs79.jpg2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago is looking at the same four college players that Houston is evaluating. The Cubs have an acute need for pitching and have had scouting eyes on Appel and Gray throughout the spring. It’s not clear whom they would prefer between Gray and Appel if the Astros opt for a hitter.

PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel (Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray).

http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_rockies85.jpg3. COLORADO ROCKIES: Gray, Appel and Bryant are the consensus top three prospects in the draft, so the obvious move would be to take the guy Houston and Chicago leave on the board, even though the Rockies probably would prefer a pitcher in a perfect world. Colorado also could consider Moran.

PROJECTED PICK: Kris Bryant (Unchanged).

http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_twins81.jpg4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Unless one of the big three falls, pitching-needy Minnesota appears focused most on Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart. The Twins could save money with Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire, and Indiana high school lefty Trey Ball and Moran also are in the mix.

PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart (Unchanged).

http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_indians83.jpg5. CLEVELAND INDIANS: Right now, the most credible top-five projection is that Cleveland will take Moran. If he goes in the top four, the Indians could turn to Nevada righthander Braden Shipley or Ball, or they could explore Georgia high school outfielders Frazier and Austin Meadows.

PROJECTED PICK: Colin Moran (Mock Draft 1.0: Braden Shipley).

Rest of the first round: Mock Draft 2.0: Shades Of Gray - BaseballAmerica.com

[kab21]

It's interesting that Trey Ball is also in the mix but Shipley isn't.

[InfraRen]

It's interesting that Trey Ball is also in the mix but Shipley isn't.

 

New SBNation mock today has us taking him:

 

4) Minnesota Twins: Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada: The obvious choice here is Kohl Stewart. Big potential, elite arm, but when you just demoted your recently acquired opening day starter and people could start losing their jobs due to 90+ loss seasons in consecutive years, you opt for the quicker impact. Shipley is no slouch with his upper 90's velocity.

 

I'm not a big fan of the "need-now" reasoning, would rather go highest potential (Stewart) but I get it...

 

2013 MLB Mock Draft, Version 2.0 - Minor League Ball

[kab21]

Shipley is no slouch with his upper 90's velocity.

 

Perhaps you missed this. Shipley might not have the same ceiling but we're still talking about a high ceiling with less risk and he should be quicker to the majors. Of course Stewart could be on the Bundy/Fernandez timing. I still like Stewart but I could understand Shipley. Right now these are my #4 and #5 picks. Frazier is also a good choice but Shipley is close enough that the SP need trumps the fractional amount that I prefer Frazier as BPA.

 

The part that I found interesting about Ball/Shipley is that BA has significant contacts and could have some inside info. Matt Garrioch knows his stuff but for the most part he doesn't have the contacts. So I'm curious if the Twins are not in on Shipley.

[gunnarthor]

I think last years draft shows the Twins will go BPA over need.

[Pius Jefferson]

That might be one in the same or close enough they decide to draft a pitcher over an everyday player.

[kab21]

I think last years draft shows the Twins will go BPA over need.

 

I strongly believe in BPA but I'm not sure any of the hitters (Bryant excluded) are better picks than either Stewart or Shipley. And in the end it's close enough that NEED trumps any argument that Frazier, Meadows or Moran are the BPA.

[gunnarthor]

I strongly believe in BPA but I'm not sure any of the hitters (Bryant excluded) are better picks than either Stewart or Shipley. And in the end it's close enough that NEED trumps any argument that Frazier, Meadows or Moran are the BPA.

I agree. This is a pitching heavy draft so unless Bryant falls to them, I think they'll take a pitcher. But I think they'll take the pitcher highest on their board, regardless of whether or not he's a college guy or HS guy.

[InfraRen]

New Kiley McDaniel mock from today. Also hits on Stewart/McGuire talkers (hope he's right):

 

Pick 4

 

RHP Kohl StewartSt. Pius X HS (TX)

 

Player: Kohl Stewart

Height: 6-3

Weight: 195

Age (Draft Day): 18.66

Current Team: St. Pius X HS (TX)

Position: P

Bats: R

Throws: R

Minnesota Twins

 

General Manager: Terry Ryan

Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

Draft Slot Amount: $4,544,400

 

ANALYSIS: This is another pick that the industry seems to think is a foregone conclusion if things shake out as I have them, but I gets antsy when a pick looks like a slam dunk this early. Reese McGuire is the hot rumor but one source indicated this week that he thinks the McGuire rumors are just misdirection to keep Stewart's price down. Stewart's dual-sport leverage as a QB recruit for Texas A&M could spike his price tag if he's confident he's a top-5 pick. Trey Ball's name has also come up but it would be very hard to justify taking him this high.

 

For the whole thing:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1294726.html

[cmb0252]

New Kiley McDaniel mock from today. Also hits on Stewart/McGuire talkers (hope he's right):

 

Pick 4

 

RHP Kohl StewartSt. Pius X HS (TX)

 

Player: Kohl Stewart

Height: 6-3

Weight: 195

Age (Draft Day): 18.66

Current Team: St. Pius X HS (TX)

Position: P

Bats: R

Throws: R

Minnesota Twins

 

General Manager: Terry Ryan

Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

Draft Slot Amount: $4,544,400

 

ANALYSIS: This is another pick that the industry seems to think is a foregone conclusion if things shake out as I have them, but I gets antsy when a pick looks like a slam dunk this early. Reese McGuire is the hot rumor but one source indicated this week that he thinks the McGuire rumors are just misdirection to keep Stewart's price down. Stewart's dual-sport leverage as a QB recruit for Texas A&M could spike his price tag if he's confident he's a top-5 pick. Trey Ball's name has also come up but it would be very hard to justify taking him this high.

 

For the whole thing:

 

Scout.com: MLB Mock Draft v2.0

 

Thanks for the link. I have updated the main page. It seems every time I update a mock they have the Twins taking Stewart.

[InfraRen]

No prob! Yeah, it does seem that way. McDaniel definitely makes it sound like that's the consensus league-wide. Fingers crossed.

[cmb0252]

Over at SB Nation's Crawfish Boxes (Astros blog site) they put up their second mock draft. They have the Astros taking Appel at #1 but I found his explanation interesting.

Just to let everyone know how close this was for me between Appel and Kris Bryant, I had a full e-mail typed out explaining my reasoning for Bryant. I would be happy with both players. However, as the adage goes, you can never have too much pitching. Appel has three plus pitches, some of them plus plus, and can command them all. He's not a perfect prospect, but I do believe he's the best player right now for the Astros. He could both pitch in the big league rotation by this September and anchor the rotation for the next ten years; his big league readiness and upside is pretty hard to pass up. The pick for now if Appel, but if you ask me next week I could very well go with Bryant.

The author makes it very clear that he thinks the Astros might take Bryant which in the end still doesn't help the Twins get one of the big 2 arms. He has the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:

TCB 2013 MLB Mock Draft v2.0 - The Crawfish Boxes

[CwK]

Do the struggles of Hudson Boyd make anyone nervous about taking another prep pitcher in Stewart. I think he's obviously better than Boyd, draft position speaks for itself. But after seeing Boyd's line from today, I started thinking about the Twins' lack of success in this area. I prefer Stewart, I am just curious.

[cmb0252]

Do the struggles of Hudson Boyd make anyone nervous about taking another prep pitcher in Stewart. I think he's obviously better than Boyd, draft position speaks for itself. But after seeing Boyd's line from today, I started thinking about the Twins' lack of success in this area. I prefer Stewart, I am just curious.

 

Personally the struggles of Boyd don't worry me in regards to Stewart at all. The fact Stewart is a HS pitcher worries me by itself. HS pitchers have the highest bust rate not only because of lack of development but injury. Saying that, to get an ace you have to get lucky ala Nationals or develop one yourself. Stewart definitely has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Actually, I believe the highest bust rate goes to HS catchers if I'm not mistaken.

[cmb0252]

Actually, I believe the highest bust rate goes to HS catchers if I'm not mistaken.

 

Sorry, I just meant position vs pitcher/ HS vs college. I was specifically talking about individual positions but you are right. HS catchers have a insanely low success rate.

[kab21]

Do the struggles of Hudson Boyd make anyone nervous about taking another prep pitcher in Stewart. I think he's obviously better than Boyd, draft position speaks for itself. But after seeing Boyd's line from today, I started thinking about the Twins' lack of success in this area. I prefer Stewart, I am just curious.

 

You are talking about 2 completely different levels of prospects when you compare Boyd to Stewart. And you are also talking about a sample size of one.

 

I'm hesitant to take a HS pitcher this high but after the big 3 the Twins are left with a pair of good but not great HS OF'ers, an underrated college pitcher (Shipley), a solid but not great 3B man (Moran) and a HS catcher. At this point I will be disappointed with anyone other than Stewart or Shipley. Trey Ball is a latecomer to the discussion but he requires a lot more projection to become an above avg starter imo.

[markos]

Personally the struggles of Boyd don't worry me in regards to Stewart at all. The fact Stewart is a HS pitcher worries me by itself. HS pitchers have the highest bust rate not only because of lack of development but injury. Saying that, to get an ace you have to get lucky ala Nationals or develop one yourself. Stewart definitely has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I know it is conventional wisdom that HS pitchers have high bust rates, but do you know when that research was done? I feel like the past decade has had very few high school busts (at least top-10 picks), and instead COLLEGE pitchers are riskier, possibly due to overuse by college coaches. The way pitchers are developed in the minors has changed dramatically in the past decade, and I think that high school pitchers are a safer commodity than they were in the past. I don't have any thorough data to back this up, but I'm curious what others think about this.

[cmathewson]

I know it is conventional wisdom that HS pitchers have high bust rates, but do you know when that research was done? I feel like the past decade has had very few high school busts (at least top-10 picks), and instead COLLEGE pitchers are riskier, possibly due to overuse by college coaches. The way pitchers are developed in the minors has changed dramatically in the past decade, and I think that high school pitchers are a safer commodity than they were in the past. I don't have any thorough data to back this up, but I'm curious what others think about this.

 

All pitchers are riskier than position players. But the rewards are higher. With Menaea gone, the Twins will likely take Stewart (unless some idiot passes on one of the big three). Shipley is a possibility, but Stewart's upside is higher than any pitcher in this draft, any person after the big three. That is what the Twins focus on more than anything.