Who's your SS now that Correa is a Giant?

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

You asked me for years that salaries went down,  I just showed you 3 times that covered 4-5 years in the last 22 years.  I am not saying they will, but if we have a recession,  its 99% chance that salaries will come down next year.  

And I pointed out the owners illegally colluded in one of those eras.......

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

To me, Ohtani, Urias, Nola and Severino are the only ones that look like upgrades to what the currently have, and three of those guys have injury histories that make Rodon's history look like a hangnail.

I mean, they're coming away from this offseason with their tails between their legs, so maybe they do change their approach next year. Ownership is going to get throttled in the media and fandom for carrying an embarrassingly low payroll this year, they might tell the front office to get something done, or they're done.

And they aren't signing Ohtani....so, like, they are competing for three players. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And they aren't signing Ohtani....so, like, they are competing for three players. 

Next year’s free agent class ALWAYS looks good a year beforehand. What we see next winter will have several enticing names eliminated due to underperformance and extensions. 

[IA Bean Counter]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And I pointed out the owners illegally colluded in one of those eras.......

I can acknowledge it may have been a factor,  however I can show you in other instances where salaries went down after major recessions,  you can't just say that the Dot Com bubble had no effect on the 2001 to 2003 era.  It likely wasn't mutually exclusive all due to the collusion and none due to the current financial conditions.   

[nicksaviking]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And they aren't signing Ohtani....so, like, they are competing for three players. 

And Urias is only 25 and the Dodgers didn't do anything this off season. If the Dodgers aren't the team that signs Ohtani, my money is on them making sure Urias doesn't leave.

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

To me, Ohtani, Urias, Nola and Severino are the only ones that look like upgrades to what the currently have, and three of those guys have injury histories that make Rodon's history look like a hangnail.

I mean, they're coming away from this offseason with their tails between their legs, so maybe they do change their approach next year. Ownership is going to get throttled in the media and fandom for carrying an embarrassingly low payroll this year, they might tell the front office to get something done, or they're done.

I hear ya but they need to replace Mahle and Gray so while I hope for an upgrade replacing them would something equal would be better than not replacing them.  There are quite a few guys as good or better than them.  Mahle has had 1 good season and Gray has had 2.  Montas would be a good add and Blake Snell really rebounded last year.  It will be very interesting to see what he does this year.  Giolito is great when he is right.  He had a down year last season but he would be a good target if he shows he can bounce back this year.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I just don't want Swanson at the money he's going to get.

Did you want Correa at the money he got? 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

I can acknowledge it may have been a factor,  however I can show you in other instances where salaries went down after major recessions,  you can't just say that the Dot Com bubble had no effect on the 2001 to 2003 era.  It likely wasn't mutually exclusive all due to the collusion and none due to the current financial conditions.   

Looks to me that the big markets still spent about the same, it was the small and mid markets that cut budget. How will that help the Twins? And if there's a recession that impacts payrolls, why wouldn't it impact the Twins?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

Did you want Correa at the money he got? 

It's preferable to Swanson, IMO. Obviously, others may feel differently and that's fine.

As I mentioned elsewhere, I'm less frustrated that the Twins failed to land Correa than I am the fact that their offer wasn't even close and they wasted a ton of time stalling when they could have been pursuing other players.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Did you want Correa at the money he got? 

 

 

If I'm paying an obscene contract, I'd like the better player. I don't trust Swanson to be better than average offensively, so I also don't have much interest.

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And they aren't signing Ohtani....so, like, they are competing for three players. 

I agree with Nick where Urias is concerned.  Which of these would you not want.  For me, there are at least a half dozen that would be nice additions.

Lucas Giolito 
Tyler Mahle 
Luis Severino 
John Means - Assuming he returns to form after surgery.
Frankie Montas
Jordan Montgomery 
Aaron Nola 

Blake Snell - If he pitches in 23 like he did the last half of 2022.
Martin Perez - Just might surprise us with another good year.

Urias and Ohtani serve a purpose two.  They soak up some of the budget from top revenue markets.  If they were not there the top markets would soak up the next top two.

I would really like Nola.  That guy has been the most reliable of the bunch and it's not close.  
 

[IA Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Looks to me that the big markets still spent about the same, it was the small and mid markets that cut budget. How will that help the Twins? And if there's a recession that impacts payrolls, why wouldn't it impact the Twins?

In 2021 the highest contract given was 150 million.   

TOTALS							186	$1,363,676,000	$7,331,591
AVERAGE							1.3	$9,536,196	$7,331,591
PLAYER (143)	POS.	AGE	BATS	THROWS	FROM	TO	YRS	DOLLARS	AVERAGE SALARY
George Springer QO	CF	31.3	R	R	HOU	TOR	6	$150,000,000	$25,000,000
J.T. Realmuto QO	C	29.8	R	R	PHI	PHI	5	$115,500,000	$23,100,000
Trevor Bauer QO	SP	30.0	R	R	CIN	LAD	3	$102,000,000	$34,000,000
D.J. LeMahieu QO	2B	32.5	R	R	NYY	NYY	6	$90,000,000	$15,000,000
Marcell Ozuna	DH	30.2	R	R	ATL	ATL	4	$65,000,000	$16,250,000
Liam Hendriks	RP	31.9	R	R	OAK	CHW	3	$54,000,000	$18,000,000
James McCann	C	30.4	R	R	CHW	NYM	4	$40,600,000	$10,150,000
Justin Turner	3B	36.2	R	R	LAD	LAD	2	$34,000,000	$17,000,000
Michael Brantley	LF	33.7	L	L	HOU	HOU	2	$32,000,000	$16,000,000
Didi Gregorius

2020 

TOTALS							184	$2,042,313,500	$11,099,530
AVERAGE							1.53	$17,019,279	$11,099,530
PLAYER (120)	POS.	AGE	BATS	THROWS	FROM	TO	YRS	DOLLARS	AVERAGE SALARY
Gerrit Cole QO	SP	29.2	R	R	HOU	NYY	9	$324,000,000	$36,000,000
Anthony Rendon QO	3B	29.5	R	R	WSH	LAA	7	$245,000,000	$35,000,000
Stephen Strasburg QO	SP	31.3	R	R	WSH	WSH	7	$245,000,000	$35,000,000
Zack Wheeler QO	SP	29.5	L	R	NYM	PHI	5	$118,000,000	$23,600,000
Josh Donaldson QO	3B	34.1	R	R	ATL	MIN	4	$92,000,000	$23,000,000
Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	32.7	R	L	LAD	TOR	4	$80,000,000	$20,000,000
Yasmani Grandal	C	31.0		R	MIL	CHW	4	$73,000,000	$18,250,000
Nick Castellanos	DH	27.8	R	R	CHC	CIN	4	$64,000,000	$16,000,000
Mike Moustakas

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

In 2021 the highest contract given was 150 million.   

TOTALS							186	$1,363,676,000	$7,331,591
AVERAGE							1.3	$9,536,196	$7,331,591
PLAYER (143)	POS.	AGE	BATS	THROWS	FROM	TO	YRS	DOLLARS	AVERAGE SALARY
George Springer QO	CF	31.3	R	R	HOU	TOR	6	$150,000,000	$25,000,000
J.T. Realmuto QO	C	29.8	R	R	PHI	PHI	5	$115,500,000	$23,100,000
Trevor Bauer QO	SP	30.0	R	R	CIN	LAD	3	$102,000,000	$34,000,000
D.J. LeMahieu QO	2B	32.5	R	R	NYY	NYY	6	$90,000,000	$15,000,000
Marcell Ozuna	DH	30.2	R	R	ATL	ATL	4	$65,000,000	$16,250,000
Liam Hendriks	RP	31.9	R	R	OAK	CHW	3	$54,000,000	$18,000,000
James McCann	C	30.4	R	R	CHW	NYM	4	$40,600,000	$10,150,000
Justin Turner	3B	36.2	R	R	LAD	LAD	2	$34,000,000	$17,000,000
Michael Brantley	LF	33.7	L	L	HOU	HOU	2	$32,000,000	$16,000,000
Didi Gregorius

2020 

TOTALS							184	$2,042,313,500	$11,099,530
AVERAGE							1.53	$17,019,279	$11,099,530
PLAYER (120)	POS.	AGE	BATS	THROWS	FROM	TO	YRS	DOLLARS	AVERAGE SALARY
Gerrit Cole QO	SP	29.2	R	R	HOU	NYY	9	$324,000,000	$36,000,000
Anthony Rendon QO	3B	29.5	R	R	WSH	LAA	7	$245,000,000	$35,000,000
Stephen Strasburg QO	SP	31.3	R	R	WSH	WSH	7	$245,000,000	$35,000,000
Zack Wheeler QO	SP	29.5	L	R	NYM	PHI	5	$118,000,000	$23,600,000
Josh Donaldson QO	3B	34.1	R	R	ATL	MIN	4	$92,000,000	$23,000,000
Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	32.7	R	L	LAD	TOR	4	$80,000,000	$20,000,000
Yasmani Grandal	C	31.0		R	MIL	CHW	4	$73,000,000	$18,250,000
Nick Castellanos	DH	27.8	R	R	CHC	CIN	4	$64,000,000	$16,000,000
Mike Moustakas

The COVID year? Really? So now we're pinning our hopes on not just a recession, but also another pandemic. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

However if/when it happens makes it even sweeter. 

You mean collusion. 1987 and 1991, MLB was deeply engaged in collusion which was magic for the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree with Nick where Urias is concerned.  Which of these would you not want.  For me, there are at least a half dozen that would be nice additions.

Lucas Giolito 
Tyler Mahle 
Luis Severino 
John Means - Assuming he returns to form after surgery.
Frankie Montas
Jordan Montgomery 
Aaron Nola 

Blake Snell - If he pitches in 23 like he did the last half of 2022.
Martin Perez - Just might surprise us with another good year.

Urias and Ohtani serve a purpose two.  They soak up some of the budget from top revenue markets.  If they were not there the top markets would soak up the next top two.

I would really like Nola.  That guy has been the most reliable of the bunch and it's not close.  
 

At this point just Nola or Severino. I'd rather see the young guys than the rest of that crew as none of them have any business at the front of a legit rotation. Obviously, things can change in a year.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would really like Nola. 

We had the opportunity in 2014 and passed on Nola for Gordon.

[Mike Vendsel]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I just don't want Swanson at the money he's going to get.

Maybe try to trade with the Padres or Giants?

Mostly I'm frustrated. This front office is going to spend the next month finding less-optimal ways to spend a bunch of money and I'm just tired of it. They'll pivot and find a guy who fills a hole that didn't necessarily *need* to be filled. They'll spend the money but it will be over far fewer years than Correa and they'll pat themselves on the back for "keeping their options open".

Bingo....dead on. Find more washed up players just to be able to say they got the payroll to a decent level. 

[Major League Ready]

23 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

We had the opportunity in 2014 and passed on Nola for Gordon.

I remember it all too well.  Nola was kind of the same then ... Ultra reliable with upside and I liked him much better than Gordon.  

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

At this point just Nola or Severino. I'd rather see the young guys than the rest of that crew as none of them have any business at the front of a legit rotation. Obviously, things can change in a year.

I think Giolito has it in him.  Wheeler was way more consistent after he signed as a free agent.  It could happen with Giolito.   Montas is not a #1 but I certainly would not be disappointed if they added him.  I was looking at in terms of there are several guys that would significantly improve the rotation.  We all want Nola or Severino but there are several other guys that make us better, right?

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

You’re okay with Farmer being the starter until after the trade deadline? Lewis had surgery on June 22. Expecting anything before August is extremely optimistic. Likely unrealistic too. Brooks Lee has, what, 3 months as a professional baseball player? 

Yeah, at some point he's no longer a stopgap and just your starting SS, especially when the gap he's bridging is to two unknowns. 

[IA Bean Counter]

36 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The COVID year? Really? So now we're pinning our hopes on not just a recession, but also another pandemic. 

Its merely an example,  The site won't let me bring up the information from back in 2008 and 2001.  When revenues are down expenditures for following years.  This isn't rocket science.  Owners and management from 2016 to 2021 had been avoiding the long contracts,  then suddenly the last 2 years, these massive contracts with years are popping back up again.  As an accountant I think teams have money to spend because of PPP and ERC credits.  I think this year is going to be a major outlier for several years.  I do think you had a good crop of free agents.  The 2021 crop wasn't nearly as good.  I think right now the teams are flush with cash,  let revenues come down,  and salary tax take hold a couple years and I am not so sure we will see the same willingness to do these contracts by Padres, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers.  Padres are pretty well locked into their salaries for the next 6-7 years,  I don't think they will be able to take on another major contract for the next 3-4 years without shedding payroll.  They have difficulty resigning their own free agents.  If a few players begin to struggle watch a firesale occur.  

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think Giolito has it in him.  Wheeler was way more consistent after he signed as a free agent.  It could happen with Giolito.   Montas is not a #1 but I certainly would not be disappointed if they added him.  I was looking at in terms of there are several guys that would significantly improve the rotation.  We all want Nola or Severino but there are several other guys that make us better, right?

Giolito's poor season coincided with a drop in velocity. If the velocity comes back I'd be interested, otherwise I think he's taken a turn for the worse. I was pretty vocal about my distaste for Oakland pitchers, Montas in particular this past July. I still don't want him. I don't think the other pitchers improve the club that much more than just letting the young pitchers get experience.

As disappointing as this off season has been, the one bright spot so far has been that the team hasn't been linked to middle of the road pitchers. They are almost always the worst investment the team makes each year. Go big, or don't do anything.

[Mike Sixel]

56 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree with Nick where Urias is concerned.  Which of these would you not want.  For me, there are at least a half dozen that would be nice additions.

Lucas Giolito 
Tyler Mahle 
Luis Severino 
John Means - Assuming he returns to form after surgery.
Frankie Montas
Jordan Montgomery 
Aaron Nola 

Blake Snell - If he pitches in 23 like he did the last half of 2022.
Martin Perez - Just might surprise us with another good year.

Urias and Ohtani serve a purpose two.  They soak up some of the budget from top revenue markets.  If they were not there the top markets would soak up the next top two.

I would really like Nola.  That guy has been the most reliable of the bunch and it's not close.  
 

I mean, if they lose Gray and Mahle, and sign two of those guys, they are close to running in place, aren't they? 

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Giolito's poor season coincided with a drop in velocity. If the velocity comes back I'd be interested, otherwise I think he's taken a turn for the worse. I was pretty vocal about my distaste for Oakland pitchers, Montas in particular this past July. I still don't want him. I don't think the other pitchers improve the club that much more than just letting the young pitchers get experience.

As disappointing as this off season has been, the one bright spot so far has been that the team hasn't been linked to middle of the road pitchers. They are almost always the worst investment the team makes each year. Go big, or don't do anything.

I got off on a tangent here.  I basically agree and have been saying the same thing with the plan for this year.  The point I was trying to make aligns with what you are saying as well.  They are going to have the money to spend.  I just remain mindful of the situations like Wheeler who are quite set in where they want to go.  The point about all the available SPs is that higher supply will make team's less desperate (in theory).  Plus, if we just can't convince the top targets, someone like Giolito (assuming he is healthy and the velocity returns) would be a good consolation prize given we are losing Mahle and Gray.  

The other one to watch is Snell.  I have been very down on Snell but he was great the 2nd half last year.  Not sure what that's about but he will be looked at very differently if he has a big year.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, if they lose Gray and Mahle, and sign two of those guys, they are close to running in place, aren't they? 

Yes.  I did not mean to give the impression that one of the secondary options should be the goal.  Nola and Severino ABSOLUTELY should be the goal and Giolito if his velocity returns.  Snell is another possibility.  He really found something the 2nd half of 2022.  I started out by saying they will certainly have the money now that they didn't sign Correa and Gray/Mahle are coming off the books.  The point of the depth is two-fold.  1) The depth is supply and that will help with the cost and our odds of getting one of them.  2) Having options where we don't go backward will seem pretty good if Nola and Severino just don't want to come here.  

[Brandon]

Elvis Andrus

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Did you want Correa at the money he got? 

 

 

No

[Hunter McCall]

To answer your first question, I think plan A will be to pursue Dansby with the same intensity they pursued Correa with. I don't think they offer as lucrative a contract as they did to Correa, but I think they are definitely in the discussion to sign Dansby.

If the Twins were to get outbid again, then it all depends on how they few Kyle Farmer. Do they think he's good enough defensively to play SS on a day-to-day basis? If they do, which they shouldn't, I think they will look to spend their money on pitching or potentially a big bat who can fill the DH similar to when they signed Nelson Cruz.

If the Twins want to keep Kyle Farmer as a Utility player, which is the best route in my opinion, the next best option will be to sign a stopgap player to play SS until Royce Lewis gets healthy and ready. The best option may be Elvis Andrus, who is coming off a fairly solid season, and could provide veteran leadership to a young Twins team. He won't be too much of a black hole in the lineup, and should continue to play very solid defense.

All in all, the Twins have money to spend and holes to fill. If they neglect to spend the money, they will be doing Twins fans a major disservice. However, they have always found a way to spend money and improve in recent years, and I think they will continue that trend. Losing Correa hurts, but I won't panic until all the cards have been played.

[Minderbinder]

Farmer/Lee/Lewis.  Next.

[cHawk]