Who's your SS now that Correa is a Giant?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, IA Bean Counter said:

How can they better manage an offseason if they will never may able to sign a top tier free agent?  That is essentially the definition you have given of a successful season.  Which other players and contracts would you rather have,  because the majority of them have been major overpays by all the big market teams.  

It isn't an overpay if it keeps happening. That's the price for elite talent. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

It isn't an overpay if it keeps happening. That's the price for elite talent. 

Yep. It stops being an overpay and just becomes "the market". And you either play in the market or you don't. Pretending to play in the market just doesn't do it for me anymore.

[IA Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It isn't an overpay if it keeps happening. That's the price for elite talent. 

When only 4-6 teams have the financial wherewithal to make those contracts,  for all the other teams it could be a massive overpay.   Free agency currently is not a level playing field.  I am also of the opinion to save money for next year,  because if there is a major recession,  you may not see these owners giving out these crazy contracts like they have been.  

They also may be willing to shed some of these ridiculous contracts.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yep. It stops being an overpay and just becomes "the market". And you either play in the market or you don't. Pretending to play in the market just doesn't do it for me anymore.

Remember when under Ryan they were " in on" Cubans? Same now, except elite free agents. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, IA Bean Counter said:

When only 4-6 teams have the financial wherewithal to make those contracts,  for all the other teams it could be a massive overpay.   Free agency currently is not a level playing field.  I am also of the opinion to save money for next year,  because if there is a major recession,  you may not see these owners giving out these crazy contracts like they have been.  

Name a year contracts go down. Save it for what? They don't sign elite players. What are they saving the money for?

[Parfigliano]

38 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The response was to someone suggesting the 2024 free agent class is terrible.  However, I think there are a couple reasons next year might be different. 

 1) Because they have 2 veteran pitchers that become free agents next year.  

2) Assuming they trade Kepler or don't pick-up his option, their payroll will be $110M if they sign a SP for $30M AAV and a RP for $10M AAV.  

3) This year's class had 3 really good SPs.  Two of them (Rodon/DeGrom) were very high risk.   

4) This year the top revenue teams had a ton of money to spend.  They can't do that every year.

5) A greater number of pitchers and less money available from the big markets helps our odds.

Tell that cant spend money part to Steve Cohen

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

My point is that I'm now going to just assume they will not sign a $150m contract with anyone until they actually do so. We've been caught in this loop for four years now where we think the Twins have a shot at a good free agent and then we find out they weren't even in the running.

And the thing is that $150m doesn't even get you a special player in today's game. That's what "pretty good" players sign for now.

My question is whether or not they really think they have a chance at these guys they're missing on or if it's 100% PR. Did they really think Correa might sign with them for 285? They couldn't have. Seager and Lindor were at 325 and 341 and you thought Correa was going to sign for 285? That doesn't even account for Bogaerts and Turner signing in the weeks leading up to this deal being announced. If they were spending any time (we know they were cuz they were meeting with him, etc.) on Correa when they wouldn't go above 285 they either have no feel for the market (that'd be my guess), or the PR department is running the offseason (probably at least a little of this) to lessen fan blowback for a payroll decrease.

I wish they'd just stop doing this "we're really in on player X" crap when we know they aren't. And if they really believe they have a shot at these guys for significantly less total money (players don't care about AAV unless it's a short-term deal for crazy AAV like the Verlander deal) they need to be fired. "We offered 28.5 AAV to their 26.9 AAV so we were really trying!" is nonsense. You were 65 million short. You weren't trying.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

My question is whether or not they really think they have a chance at these guys they're missing on or if it's 100% PR. Did they really think Correa might sign with them for 285? They couldn't have. Seager and Lindor were at 325 and 341 and you thought Correa was going to sign for 285? That doesn't even account for Bogaerts and Turner signing in the weeks leading up to this deal being announced. If they were spending any time (we know they were cuz they were meeting with him, etc.) on Correa when they wouldn't go above 285 they either have no feel for the market (that'd be my guess), or the PR department is running the offseason (probably at least a little of this) to lessen fan blowback for a payroll decrease.

I wish they'd just stop doing this "we're really in on player X" crap when we know they aren't. And if they really believe they have a shot at these guys for significantly less total money (players don't care about AAV unless it's a short-term deal for crazy AAV like the Verlander deal) they need to be fired. "We offered 28.5 AAV to their 26.9 AAV so we were really trying!" is nonsense. You were 65 million short. You weren't trying.

I can't like this post enough times.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

My question is whether or not they really think they have a chance at these guys they're missing on or if it's 100% PR. Did they really think Correa might sign with them for 285? They couldn't have. Seager and Lindor were at 325 and 341 and you thought Correa was going to sign for 285? That doesn't even account for Bogaerts and Turner signing in the weeks leading up to this deal being announced. If they were spending any time (we know they were cuz they were meeting with him, etc.) on Correa when they wouldn't go above 285 they either have no feel for the market (that'd be my guess), or the PR department is running the offseason (probably at least a little of this) to lessen fan blowback for a payroll decrease.

I wish they'd just stop doing this "we're really in on player X" crap when we know they aren't. And if they really believe they have a shot at these guys for significantly less total money (players don't care about AAV unless it's a short-term deal for crazy AAV like the Verlander deal) they need to be fired. "We offered 28.5 AAV to their 26.9 AAV so we were really trying!" is nonsense. You were 65 million short. You weren't trying.

 

This. Either they don't understand the market they claim they want to play in, or it's PR.

If it's the former, they should be fired. 

[wsnydes]

7 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

How can they better manage an offseason if they will never may able to sign a top tier free agent?  That is essentially the definition you have given of a successful season.  Which other players and contracts would you rather have,  because the majority of them have been major overpays by all the big market teams.  

They could manage the offseason better by not putting all of their eggs in one basket on a top tier free agent and going after more guys on the next tier down.  They do that all of the time but for whatever reason they weren't as realistic on Correa than they are with others.  They essentially held themselves hostage by waiting out Correa.

This team is much further away from being a real competitor than a Correa.  I could get behind what they did if they were just a Correa away, but that isn't even close to the reality.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Last year we signed CC for high AAV and knew he'd opt out.  We were hoping that he would bridge the year we needed to get Lewis ready.  If we are competing with other teams on Swanson, why not go the same route and offer a high AAV to Swanson knowing he may opt out after one year since next year's FA SS candidates is weak and he can get his big payday like CC did.  It would again buy us some time to get Lewis up to speed for 2024.  It also would get a solid bat into the lineup for 2023 which many on this thread are suggesting is needed.

It worked for CC.  Maybe it will work for Swanson AND the Twins.  Just a thought.

[wsnydes]

Just now, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Last year we signed CC for high AAV and knew he'd opt out.  We were hoping that he would bridge the year we needed to get Lewis ready.  If we are competing with other teams on Swanson, why not go the same route and offer a high AAV to Swanson knowing he may opt out after one year since next year's FA SS candidates is weak and he can get his big payday like CC did.  It would again buy us some time to get Lewis up to speed for 2024.  It also would get a solid bat into the lineup for 2023 which many on this thread are suggesting is needed.

It worked for CC.  Maybe it will work for Swanson AND the Twins.  Just a thought.

Is Swanson the type of player you'd do that for though?  He's not the same caliber player as Correa.  YMMV, but that's not a route I would go for Swanson.

[IA Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Name a year contracts go down. Save it for what? They don't sign elite players. What are they saving the money for?

An opportunity.  This forum was ecstatic when we signed Correa last year,  why was that its because we had dry powder to take advantage.  How about when we signed Donaldson or Cruz.  We could also trade for a player with 1-2 years left on his contract and get a prospect or two from a team shedding salary.  Brock has stated he doesn't want to pivot and get mediocre players,  this year we still have a possibility at Rodon and or Swanson.   If we don't get things done yes we can spend the money this year on short term contracts.  However,  I do think contracts could come back in in the future.  

Lets say we have a major recession next year that affects the stock market significantly.  You still think Seidler and Steven Cohen will be throwing out money willy nilly?  I don't.  I think you will see contracts with much less years than the contracts signed the last 2 years.  I could also see the Padres begin to pivot if they struggle over a year or two and try to shed payroll.   

Look  I like to dabble in the stock market.  Sometimes you need to get the best of breed,  but for a team like the Twins you have to succeed on finding opportunities possible and pouncing when others are maxed out or fearful.  You can also possibly get luck finding some reclamation projects, and hitting on your prospects.  That is the name of the game.  

[IA Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

They could manage the offseason better by not putting all of their eggs in one basket on a top tier free agent and going after more guys on the next tier down.  They do that all of the time but for whatever reason they weren't as realistic on Correa than they are with others.  They essentially held themselves hostage by waiting out Correa.

This team is much further away from being a real competitor than a Correa.  I could get behind what they did if they were just a Correa away, but that isn't even close to the reality.  

No one can state what other prospects they wish the Twins would have rather gone after than Correa?   Kind of proves my point.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, IA Bean Counter said:

An opportunity.  This forum was ecstatic when we signed Correa last year,  why was that its because we had dry powder to take advantage.  How about when we signed Donaldson or Cruz.  We could also trade for a player with 1-2 years left on his contract and get a prospect or two from a team shedding salary.  Brock has stated he doesn't want to pivot and get mediocre players,  this year we still have a possibility at Rodon and or Swanson.   If we don't get things done yes we can spend the money this year on short term contracts.  However,  I do think contracts could come back in in the future.  

Lets say we have a major recession next year that affects the stock market significantly.  You still think Seidler and Steven Cohen will be throwing out money willy nilly?  I don't.  I think you will see contracts with much less years than the contracts signed the last 2 years.  I could also see the Padres begin to pivot if they struggle over a year or two and try to shed payroll.   

Look  I like to dabble in the stock market.  Sometimes you need to get the best of breed,  but for a team like the Twins you have to succeed on finding opportunities possible and pouncing when others are maxed out or fearful.  You can also possibly get luck finding some reclamation projects, and hitting on your prospects.  That is the name of the game.  

Name a year contracts have gone down. Baseball revenue is mostly tv and radio. Those deals are locked in. Prices aren't going down for players. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, IA Bean Counter said:

No one can state what other prospects they wish the Twins would have rather gone after than Correa?   Kind of proves my point.  

I've listed multiple players multiple times now. Willson Contreras, Mitch Haniger, Jamison Taillon. Are they great players? No, but they're good and better than almost all the options remaining.

[IA Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Name a year contracts have gone down. Baseball revenue is mostly tv and radio. Those deals are locked in. Prices aren't going down for players. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/sports/baseball/09salaries.html

2009-2011.      2001-2003.  

Surprise surprise both occurred after a major recession.    

Also  2021, after Covid.  

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/16/22831008/mlbs-revenue-sharing-problem-and-how-to-solve-it

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've listed multiple players multiple times now. Willson Contreras, Mitch Haniger, Jamison Taillon. Are they great players? No, but they're good and better than almost all the options remaining.

Bassit....

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Bassit....

Yeah, I would have been fine with a bunch of different names. I care less about specific names than I do the process of acquiring good players and right now, there just aren’t many good players left. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, IA Bean Counter said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/sports/baseball/09salaries.html

2009-2011.      2001-2003.  

Surprise surprise both occurred after a major recession.    

Baseball had to pay money to the players for illegal collusion in 2001-2003..... I guess they could risk that again. 

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

No one can state what other prospects they wish the Twins would have rather gone after than Correa?   Kind of proves my point.  

But they have, not only in this thread, but across the forum as a whole.  The next tier down isn't as exciting as the top tier free agents so those threads get less traffic and exposure.  But to say that nobody has offered other solutions is flat out inaccurate.

But this is also missing the point.  If they're not going to be serious about going after the top tier free agents, then they need to be realistic and go after the next tier down and sign multiples of those types of players.  Ultimately, that's what's going to make this team better because they aren't just a top tier free agent away from winning.  They had one last season and how'd that go? 

[IA Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Baseball had to pay money to the players for illegal collusion in 2001-2003..... I guess they could risk that again. 

You are also ignoring the financial implications of the Dot Com bubble.  

[IA Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I would have been fine with a bunch of different names. I care less about specific names than I do the process of acquiring good players and right now, there just aren’t many good players left. 

Yes so you named 4-5 players.  None of them game changers but all of them good.  Similar to the following players- Swanson, Rodon, Eovaldi, Syndergaard, Conforto, Chapman and Kimbrel.  Maybe there is someone else they prefer better.  Those all seem to be a similar level as the ones you mentioned wouldn't you agree?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

You are also ignoring the financial implications of the Dot Com bubble.  

I'm not ignoring anything. I don't agree prices for players are going down. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

It would be worse if it was ten and 350.....

If he actually plays 13 years. I'm guessing this new trend of 10+ year contracts will eventually lead to a trend of cutting aging players while they are still getting paid.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

If he actually plays 13 years. I'm guessing this new trend of 10+ year contracts will eventually lead to a trend of cutting aging players while they are still getting paid.

Sure. But that's still better than paying the money earlier. I proposed a ten year deal, 350, paid over twenty years. SF just did it over thirteen. 

[wsnydes]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure. But that's still better than paying the money earlier. I proposed a ten year deal, 350, paid over twenty years. SF just did it over thirteen. 

So, we could have had a Carlos Correa Day like the Mets have Bobby Bonilla Day?  

Ok, now I am pissed! ?

[IA Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not ignoring anything. I don't agree prices for players are going down. 

You asked me for years that salaries went down,  I just showed you 3 times that covered 4-5 years in the last 22 years.  I am not saying they will, but if we have a recession,  its 99% chance that salaries will come down next year.  

[Doctor Gast]

I thought this thread was to brain storm to see if we can find SS that best fit the Twins. I think some of us are getting a little off topic.

Farmer was signed for depth, I'd be very disappointed if he was left to be the lone SS. If so, we'd have a poor base of an INF with zero depth. I was hoping to get some new ideas from you guys as from some other threads have been done. As of now due to past brain storming, I'd say Hoerner, Kim & Guillerme are our best short term options, Guillerme as being our best fit.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

IDK about position players but the list of pitchers looks pretty deep.

Shohei Ohtani 
Julio Urias 
Lucas Giolito 
Frankie Montas
Aaron Nola 
Tyler Mahle 
Luis Severino 
Martin Perez
Sonny Gray 
Jack Flaherty
Blake Snell 
Brad Keller
Chris Flexen 
German Marquez  – $16MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Jakob Junis
John Means
Jordan Montgomery 
 

To me, Ohtani, Urias, Nola and Severino are the only ones that look like upgrades to what the currently have, and three of those guys have injury histories that make Rodon's history look like a hangnail.

I mean, they're coming away from this offseason with their tails between their legs, so maybe they do change their approach next year. Ownership is going to get throttled in the media and fandom for carrying an embarrassingly low payroll this year, they might tell the front office to get something done, or they're done.