Esteury Ruiz provides me with a new look at Max Kepler

[Riverbrian]

Every once in awhile something shocking will happen in baseball with no obvious explanation. Sometimes it can change my thinking. 

Estuery Ruiz was all the Brewers gave up to the A's to receive William Contreras from the Braves in the Sean Murphy deal. 

Baseball Trade Values isn't going to explain this trade. Ruiz was 5 Value and Contreras was 37 so the trade doesn't make sense in a straight up deal. But, that isn't the really odd part.

The really odd part was that Contreras by himself wasn't enough to acquire Ruiz. The Brewers had to get two more players thrown in to apparently reluctantly part with Ruiz, a player who they acquired in the Josh Hader deal from the Padres just a short time ago. 

The only conclusion that I could come up with was this: The A's really wanted Ruiz and the Brewers really didn't want to give him up. The 5 value on BTV doesn't apply for some reason. 

So... I'm thinking about it and wondering why.  Here is the only thing that I could come up with. The Shift rule change. Ruiz is a speed guy. 

Is it possible that speed and range is new currency because more ground will have to be covered. It's the only thing that makes Ruiz THIS valuable in my mind. 

This got me thinking about Kepler. I have been very hard on him and I don't want to be. I have openly questioned WAR in regards to Kepler, because I felt that the only way that Kepler gets a decent WAR is with inflated defensive stats during heavy shifting making zone rating stats more questionable and they were already questionable in my mind, especially when you toss in the consideration of overwhelming routine defensive plays. 

Lots of people believe... Including me (Kinda)... that Max is going to benefit offensively from the shift ban and I understand this.

However, the other side was possibly lost on me. With the shift ban... more range is going to be necessary than it was before. So while I have been dismissing defensive metrics during the time of the shift... perhaps it's time to recognize it's value on the defensive side of the ball with shifting out the window. 

The Brewers and A's had extremely high value attached to this Ruiz kid. Do other teams feel the same? Is it shift related? Does this mean anything to the value of Kepler in 2023 compared to his value in 2022? 

Have I been wrong about Kepler? Do I owe him an apology?  

 

[wsnydes]

Thought provoking, indeed!  You bring up some interesting points.  

To answer your closing questions, I think a compromise will work until the issue can be resolved.  Just tell Max that you might be wrong about him and that you might owe him an apology!  I'm sure he'll understand!

[nicksaviking]

I see the point, and I too hadn't really put much thought into it, but it's hard for me to see too much of a value increase for outfielders based on the new rules. It makes tons of sense for infielders though.

Also, now more than ever, you need strike out pitchers. Anyone throwing a sinker needs to stop doing so ASAP.

[Mike Sixel]

Or,  everyone saying the As made a terrible deal are right? 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I see the point, and I too hadn't really put much thought into it, but it's hard for me to see too much of a value increase for outfielders based on the new rules. It makes tons of sense for infielders though.

Also, now more than ever, you need strike out pitchers. Anyone throwing a sinker needs to stop doing so ASAP.

Infield should be where it opens up the most but all 4 infielders must have feet in the dirt with the new rules so... that guy hanging out in short right is gone which will open up RF quite a bit. 

And if infield is indeed where the change is most felt. Could the Twins be looking at quick re-tool at those 4 positions. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or,  everyone saying the As made a terrible deal are right? 

To quote myself, there are some that agree with you .... But they are free and far between in this trade. Doesn't make your general theory wrong 

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Infield should be where it opens up the most but all 4 infielders must have feet in the dirt with the new rules so... that guy hanging out in short right is gone which will open up RF quite a bit. 

And if infield is indeed where the change is most felt. Could the Twins be looking at quick re-tool at those 4 positions. 

Could be, and if so, I hope they're one of the teams that figure it out first, not a follower who waits and sees how other teams deal with it. The last front office would have waited and been the last to change, this front office, despite their mistakes, have been proactive.

I will say, RF in Target Field is smaller than most parks, so range front-to-back will likely be less of an issue than it will in bigger parks.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

To quote myself, there are some that agree with you .... But they are free and far between in this trade. Doesn't make your general theory wrong 

I don't know if I agree with myself. ?

Just trying to figure out where all that Esteury value came from. It's got me in a lot of different places that I'm trying to sort out in my head. Speed might be making a comeback. Perhaps... the shift made the obvious solution to hit the ball over everybody. 

Looking back at the Hader trade... Esteury probably had a lot of value attached to him in that deal. Rogers was a rental, Dinilson was released immediately after.

That makes it Hader for Gasser and Eseurty Ruiz basically. Was that enough? 

[weitz41]

Hasn't Oakland had a bunch of these trades where most are scratching their heads on what they got? Then 3-5 years later they're winning 85-95 games a year. Maybe it is the range + no shift way to look at it. 4 1/2 more inches of bases as well. Didn't Ruiz kid steal close to 90 bases in the minors with the new rules? Maybe they're Zigging while we all carry on with our Zag. I'm leaning the bad trade direction.

[weitz41]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That makes it Hader for Gasser and Eseurty Ruiz basically. Was that enough? 

Or as of Yesterday Contreas and Glasser for Hader. Is that enough? 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Or as of Yesterday Contreas and Glasser for Hader. Is that enough? 

Plus the other two guys that had to be thrown in as sweetener. ?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

Thought provoking, indeed!  You bring up some interesting points.  

To answer your closing questions, I think a compromise will work until the issue can be resolved.  Just tell Max that you might be wrong about him and that you might owe him an apology!  I'm sure he'll understand!

[Dman]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't know if I agree with myself. ?

Just trying to figure out where all that Esteury value came from. It's got me in a lot of different places that I'm trying to sort out in my head. Speed might be making a comeback. Perhaps... the shift made the obvious solution to hit the ball over everybody. 

Looking back at the Hader trade... Esteury probably had a lot of value attached to him in that deal. Rogers was a rental, Dinilson was released immediately after.

That makes it Hader for Gasser and Eseurty Ruiz basically. Was that enough? 

I think you are pretty spot on.  For an example look at Buxton and his speed and how he changes games just with his defense.  Add in the fact that Ruiz could be a sleeper Buxton 2.0 as he had a .900 OPS in AAA and IMO you can see the appeal.  He isn't necessarily "just" a speed guy he has good power for a center fielder as well.  Can you imagine Pache and Ruiz in the same outfield?  A's are on their their way to a great defensive outfield with two players that can put the pressure on the other teams D by beating out infield throws and stealing bases.  I can see why the A's wanted him so badly.  It is the same reason I want the Twins to take Bradfield in the draft.  They could mix and match outfield with Buxton, Gordon, Lewis and Bradfield.  That could be fun too.

[talkintwins]

It usually takes a few years before it's clear who the winners & losers are in most trades. The same-day, knee-jerk reaction to this trade is a bit much. Contreras is not even a lock to stick at C, so it's entirely possible that Oakland's return ends up being the most favorable by 2 or 3 years from now. Teams appear to not view Contreras the same way some fans do. Who knows. Gotta let it play out.

The trade value website is a fun activity. However, IMO too much stock is placed into it being gospel. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm in pretty deep with the Brewers community and the feel I got from this trade was that the A's and Braves couldn't agree on a trade... then the Brewers slipped in and said "give us this, we'll give you that" and somehow accomplished highway robbery in the process.

I think the focus of the A's and Braves were on each other while the Brewers managed to offer enticing value to each while neither noticed the Brewers weren't giving up much in return.

[jorgenswest]

I think BTV might be wrong on both. Maybe the Braves didn’t view Contreras as the catcher of the future. They probably saw him as a DH. They A’s could have had him but must not see him playing in the field long term either. Catchers and DHs have drastically different trade value. Like Miranda in 2021, Ruiz made huge strides in 2022. It took BTV a while to catch up with Miranda. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, talkintwins said:

It usually takes a few years before it's clear who the winners & losers are in most trades. The same-day, knee-jerk reaction to this trade is a bit much. Contreras is not even a lock to stick at C, so it's entirely possible that Oakland's return ends up being the most favorable by 2 or 3 years from now. Teams appear to not view Contreras the same way some fans do. Who knows. Gotta let it play out.

The way we value players is clearly not the same as how many teams do. The trade value website is a fun activity. However, IMO too much stock is placed into it being gospel. 

No doubt each team has their own evaluations. It would have to be impossible for a website to harness all of it. I do admit I've been impressed how often the website is in the ball park when you review completed trades which I do all the time now because I'm 57 and don't have much else to do with my life I guess. ?

I agree it would be misguided to call BTV gospel. I also don't spend a lot of time worried about weather a prospect is ranked 5th or 6th or 12th or who put together the rankings that say the prospect is 5th, 6th or 12th. I understand that Keith Law is pretty plugged in but he has to plug into someone that is more plugged in because he can't personally assess the thousands of people who need to be assessed so I'll take my Keith Law with a grain of salt as well and I'll take those people in the front offices with some salt because they are wrong often. I don't blame them for being wrong because the margins are thin between that 5th ranked guy and the 12th ranked guy who were ranked by some guy who asked them.  

I always assume that the trades are equal when made.... At least in the eye of the beholders. Winners and losers are determined later by how the acquiring club develops the acquired player. If you want to win trades... make the players you acquire better. It's real simple. Let's see what the future has to say.   

With all of that said. William Contreras with his 1.106 years of service, .860 OPS at age 24 is a fantastic get for a Brewers team looking to add offense. 

It took Contreras plus two sweeteners for Milwaukee to part with this Esteury Ruiz and the A's said... Yep that's fair. 

Now I'm still trying to grasp it. 

Anyway... Great post... You are Solid. 

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm in pretty deep with the Brewers community and the feel I got from this trade was that the A's and Braves couldn't agree on a trade... then the Brewers slipped in and said "give us this, we'll give you that" and somehow accomplished highway robbery in the process.

I think the focus of the A's and Braves were on each other while the Brewers managed to offer enticing value to each while neither noticed the Brewers weren't giving up much in return.

Kudo's to Brad Arnold. 

Seeing two teams at an impasse and getting them together like that. The world could use more Brad Arnolds. ?

[Rik19753]

The A's seeing something in Ruiz that others don't still doesn't explain the trade. If the other teams really did value Ruiz like BTV, the A's would have definitely asked for more even if they were 100% sure that he would blossom into the next superstar, because you would never ask for less than what the other team is willing to give you. I think it's more likely that every team is higher on Ruiz than his prospect rank or his value on BTV.

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think BTV might be wrong on both. Maybe the Braves didn’t view Contreras as the catcher of the future. They probably saw him as a DH. They A’s could have had him but must not see him playing in the field long term either. Catchers and DHs have drastically different trade value. Like Miranda in 2021, Ruiz made huge strides in 2022. It took BTV a while to catch up with Miranda. 

I can only assume that Contreras had some defensive concerns because the Braves wouldn't have needed the upgrade otherwise. Contreras is younger, has more years of control, costs less and his one season at the plate suggests that he COULD be a better hitter than Murphy so you can only call it an upgrade if Contreras has some defensive issues. Atlanta could have spent those trade assets to upgrade LF. They didn't. 

BTV is going to have to catch up fast. The Ruiz value is clearly much higher just based on the two trades he has been involved in.  

[DocBauer]

Interesting that Kepler is part of your OP. And I will come back to that.

I've stated a few times previously that what was old sometimes comes back around again as new. Witness the Rpyals a few years ago winning with a solid staff and great pen. Similar to many team's approach currently, even the Twins. They had a handful of very good players and pressured teams with speed and defense. That was more "old school" of a way to play. In today's ML baseball of 3 outcome hitters, I can see a team looking that direction as a way of "attacking" other teams. Hence the A's valuing Ruiz more than others for speed and defense in a "new/old" approach.

But let me also say this; I am unconvinced the larger bases will do anything to increase the run game until I see otherwise. Larger bases only increases the differences between bases by 3 inches! And some might say, "But Doc, those 3 inches on close plays could be huge!". I'd argue, if the 2B or SS are where they are supposed to be, and the throw is on target...which is ALWAYS the case on a SB attempt...the position player is an inch and a half CLOSER to making the tag than before! So will an inch and a half really make that much of a difference?

I like the pitch clock. But that shouldn't make a difference. But limited throws to 1B MIGHT be a difference maker that I don't think the larger bags will. Pitchers are going to have to pay more attention to runners at 1B and make at least subtle adjustments. But let's be honest, half the throws to 1B are just stealing time between pitches thrown. 

But then again, unless a team has a boatload of speed, limited tosses might be irrelevant. 

Now, if teams are finally starting to understand a 3 outcome situation only goes so far, it explains interest in hitting and OB machines like Arraez gaining value, hence trade speculation. 

Back to Kepler. His defense is outstanding. Along with possible changes in offensive approaches, I can see teams starting to value defense again, to counter the 3 outcome scenarios as they can. A solo HR is better than a 2 run shot, or a speedy runner taking 2B. Again, old becomes new.

The pitching changes and limitations on the shift MIGHT change the game to some degree, but I don't see wholesale changes just due to new rules. I mean, a slow team/player will still be slow. Teams can still play a shift in the OF and the infield. They just can't 3 infielders on one side or create a "rover" in the OF. Will that be enough for someone like Kepler to make a difference? Well, it COULD if someone like Max would hit hard line drives and not top the ball for weak grounder.

But like Arraez, and his special talents, I can see Kepler having value to a team looking for defense and hopes that he suddenly re-diacovers hitting the ball hard again.

From the Twins perspective, Arraez is an important part of their lineup. And I'd really hate to see him go. Especially since kids like Martin and Julien and maybe Lee and Lewis aren't ready yet to replace him as they may be similar. But I get the trade value. I think Kepler is easier to replace...even though I'm a long time fan and love his defense...as I think Larnach and Wallner can both bring the arm needed for RF, even with a little less defense at this time, but better offense. It's a balancing act.

Long post, lots to say and address. It's a complicated subject you brought up Brian.

 

[talkintwins]

27 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I always assume that the trades are equal when made.... At least in the eye of the beholders. Winners and losers are determined later by how the acquiring club develops the acquired player. If you want to win trades... make the players you acquire better. It's real simple. Let's see what the future has to say.   

It really is a fun trade, as a lot of the names should spend considerable time in the majors going forward. I want the full backstory from all sides. It sure looks like Atlanta had a list of players they were okay with losing, especially if it brought them Murphy. That's such a fantasy baseball approach - a package of whatever's in the cupboard for the best player in the deal.

Now Ruiz has to perform under a spotlight this year - no pressure, kid.

[Brock Beauchamp]

40 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Kudo's to Brad Arnold. 

Seeing two teams at an impasse and getting them together like that. The world could use more Brad Arnolds. ?

Matt Arnold. But yes, he pulled off a hell of a deal there. 

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Matt Arnold. But yes, he pulled off a hell of a deal there. 

He doesn't sing for Three Doors Down? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

He doesn't sing for Three Doors Down? 

That’d be a hell of a side gig. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, talkintwins said:

It usually takes a few years before it's clear who the winners & losers are in most trades. The same-day, knee-jerk reaction to this trade is a bit much. Contreras is not even a lock to stick at C, so it's entirely possible that Oakland's return ends up being the most favorable by 2 or 3 years from now. Teams appear to not view Contreras the same way some fans do. Who knows. Gotta let it play out.

The trade value website is a fun activity. However, IMO too much stock is placed into it being gospel. 

People never seem to take into account the value of certainty, or the short term winning in posts like this 

Anyone can judge a trade years later..... I'm not what the value in that is. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People never seem to take into account the value of certainty, or the short term winning in posts like this 

Anyone can judge a trade years later..... I'm not what the value in that is. 

The A's don't have "short term" value. 

You are removing the leg they stand on. ?