3 Reasons Why Dansby Swanson is Not Carlos Correa

[Cody Christie]

If the Twins miss out on Carlos Correa, they can pivot to the other top free agent still on the market. However, Dansby Swanson lacks some traits the Twins have already seen in Correa.

 

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

 

Carlos Correa has clearly been the team's focus throughout the offseason. However, as the team awaits Correa's decision, other free-agent players have signed contracts with other clubs. This situation would leave the Twins with limited options if Correa picked another club like the Giants or the Cubs. There were four top-tier shortstops when the offseason began, and now two names remain. Minnesota can pivot to Dansby Swanson, but he is a different type of player than Swanson.

Swanson's Lack of Track Record
Like Correa, Swanson was the number one overall pick, but the D-Backs took him out of college. He spent his first seven big-league seasons in the Braves infield and combined to post a .738 OPS with a 95 OPS+. During the 2022 season, Swanson put it all together on both sides of the plate. He hit .277/.329/.447 (.776) with 32 doubles and 25 home runs. Defensively, he ranked third among NL shortstops according to SABR's Defensive Index and won his first Gold Glove. Unfortunately, his lack of offensive track record should make teams leery of how he will age. Clubs must decide if last season was an outlier or if Swanson has put it all together at age 28. 

Correa's Familiarity with the Team's Core
Minnesota got the opportunity to take Correa for a test drive last season, which helped the club see what he means to the team's core. He provides leadership on and off the field, with many of the team's young players viewing him as a mentor. Correa is close to Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, and other key players who will impact the organization over the next decade. Swanson might be able to build those relationships, but Correa already has an advantage in this area. Correa's baseball IQ is off the charts, which will help him age well and impact future prospects entering the Twins' core. 

Face of the Franchise Potential
Swanson is only seven months older than Correa, but their baseball careers have taken remarkably different paths. Swanson has been a role player on some strong Braves teams over the last decade, but it took him time to put it all together. Correa's career WAR is over 2.7 times higher than Swanson's. Both players have been starting shortstops for a World Series champion, but Correa has played over 40 more postseason games with an OPS that is 128 points higher. For the bulk of the next decade, the Twins and their fans would be able to look to Correa as the best player on the roster. He is the type of player to build a franchise around. 

Swanson is clearly on Minnesota's radar, but it might be the team doing its due diligence. It will take a significant financial commitment to sign either player, but Correa is a different caliber player than Swanson. If the Twins miss out on Correa, the front office should only turn to Swanson if his market significantly declines in the weeks ahead. 

Does it make sense for the Twins to pivot to Swanson? How much should the team be willing to pay Swanson? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Steve71]

I like Swanson.  He is a very, very good player who would make the Twins a better team if signed.  He is clearly not as strong a player as Correa based on past track record, but time will only tell as to how they both play in the future.

My feeling is that if Correa signs elsewhere, Swanson is hardly a "consolation prize" and Twins fans should be well pleased if he comes to play here.  The Twins might have more financial resources and flexibility if Swanson is signed vs. Correa, too.

And he could outperform Correa, too.

[Nashvilletwin]

Another difference - he’s probably $10MM/year cheaper which is worth a really good relief pitcher each year. Hard to say all things considered - including the intangibles and opportunity cost of money (which is a real thing to a mid market franchise like the Twins) - which player overall would contribute more. 

Love CC, but Swanson is also a very, very good baseball player. I’d still take CC as the franchise face alongside Buxton.  However, if Swanson ends up being our guy on a shorter, cheaper deal with fewer opt outs or no trade clauses, we shouldn’t be upset. 

[lukeduke1980]

Is there a chance Swanson signs a Correa 1 year deal so he can have another 6 war year and go into 2023 offseason as the main SS prize?  Seems like the path to get Bogarts money

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Yes, if we miss out on CC we should explore Swanson.  He would/should be cheaper and although you mention several differences between the two Cody, you left out that Swanson can steal bases where CC cannot.

I don't think we should be disappointed if we get Swanson.

[garn from vancouver]

sign swanson and let carlos go wherever he wants and get the big, possible, payday.

[farmerguychris]

Am I the only one who feels Farmer may be fine for half a year while Lewis gets healthy?  I like having CC on our team, but not enough to keep us from spending money in the future when I think Lewis may be a good SS for us very shortly.

[RJA]

Swanson had a nice year at a very opportune time as he was entering free agency.  I think he is worth exploring, especially if the price was such that it allowed us to add another significant piece--say Rodon--if we were to trade Kepler and use that money as well.  But, I realize that it is very unlikely our FO would extend that far.  One thing concerns me with Swanson, his strikeout rate, but these days striking out 182 times is pretty normal!  On the positive side, his advanced stats show consistency over the past 3 or 4 years, so he is showing no signs of decline yet.

[awmonahan]

I don't know. I feel like this would be setting a contract salary at the peak of Swanson's value. If it were Swanson or use the money elsewhere, I'd pass, and see what we have in Farmer, Lewis, and maybe even Lee (if he keeps progressing quickly). 

[roger]

Let me see, Cody, three reasons why Dansby Swanson is not Carlos Correa.  Hmmh.

One, they have different mothers.  Two, they have different fathers.  Three, see one and two.

Not throwing stones at your article, Cody.  Just got a weird vibe when I read the headline.  Considering I do not want them to spend the dollars/years for Correa, I sincerely hope they don't even talk to Swanson if they don't sign Carlos.  I like Farmer as their shortstop until Royce Lewis is healthy to begin his Hall of Fame career. 

And before you all jump all over my view, I'll bet if you ask Royce Lewis he believes he will have a Hall of Fame career.

[CRF]

I'd take Swanson in a heartbeat, if we don't sign CC. Swanson is a very good ball player. Might be better offensively, and solid defensively too. My feeling is...we have to get one of those two guys. CC would be the preference, Swanson, if CC goes elsewhere. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

Am I the only one who feels Farmer may be fine for half a year while Lewis gets healthy?  I like having CC on our team, but not enough to keep us from spending money in the future when I think Lewis may be a good SS for us very shortly.

This is a good point, but I’m salivating over several years of an infield of CC, Lewis, and Lee, with Arraez and Miranda at 1B/DH and Julien as a swing infielder.  If its Swanson instead of CC, so be it.

In either case, we have great positional flexibility with a super mix of defense and offense.  Also, other than CC or Swanson and a bit of Arraez, the rest of that infield/DH is super cheap and the overall cost is very attractive. Moreover, signing either CC or Swanson hedges us out on prospect risk.  

[HerbieFan]

All great points Cody.  I agree with others...if Swanson deal vs Correa deal is commensurate to Swanson vs Correa themselves, he still make sense.  How about someone write an article called "(At least) 3 Reasons Why Dansby Swanson Is Not Kyle Farmer"?!...lol

[mnfireman]

The biggest reason why Swanson is not Carlos Correa is arm strength, and it is the reason why he won't stick at SS. His arm strength was 48/50 among SS making 100 throws. Hell, it would have been 40/70 among 2B with 100 throws (.3 MPH stronger than Polanco, and we know he's not a SS). Some teams can afford $25 MM/yr at 2B, the Twins cannot, and with all the prospects, do not need to. 

[071063]

4 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Am I the only one who feels Farmer may be fine for half a year while Lewis gets healthy?  I like having CC on our team, but not enough to keep us from spending money in the future when I think Lewis may be a good SS for us very shortly.

Yes.

[darin617]

10 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Is there a chance Swanson signs a Correa 1 year deal so he can have another 6 war year and go into 2023 offseason as the main SS prize?  Seems like the path to get Bogarts money

It would be a 2-3 year deal with opt outs. That's the route I would take if i made the choice.

[mnfireman]

Opt outs are used to build value, Swanson's value is as high as it will ever be, so opt outs make zero sense for him.

[JoeCool]

I say no to the overpaying happening this offseason. These players are getting way too much. I am at the point of going after a stop gap option because the farm system at SS is very strong with Lee and Lewis coming along and even Austin Martin has listed as a potential SS and has progressed in late 2022. 
 

I think we should only do smart deals like the Buxton and Correa contracts of last year. These teams will regret such long term deals. Very few work out and sink a franchise at the end of the deals when production drops off. Even Swanson at over $20 million for ten years is a ripoff. 
 

Swanson is a $10-$15 million per season type of player and I think our farm system will produce equal or better than him within 1-2 years.  

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Am I the only one who feels Farmer may be fine for half a year while Lewis gets healthy?  I like having CC on our team, but not enough to keep us from spending money in the future when I think Lewis may be a good SS for us very shortly.

If you are fine with another year like the last two, then by all means run Farmer out there everyday. If you hated the last two years and are sick and tired of this FO and the excuses they have for everything then no I am not fine with running Farmer out there for half the season and hoping with both hands fingers crossed that Lewis or Lee is the savior to all the Twins problems and that every other player that has been injury prone is no longer.

Also the Twins have the money to spend now and we should be worried about them spending that in the future?

[Thebigalguy]

Makes zero sense to sign him. I prefer the Farmer.

[CRF]

Now that CC went to the Giants, the market/money for Swanson goes even higher. I doubt we get him. Get ready for Farmer and whomever else they might bring in here at short.  

[Trov]

I would have no issue with bringing in Swanson, as long as we do not overspend on him simply because we feel like we need something.  He has been above average SS his whole career, but not elite until his contract year.  This normally does not play out well if we gave him a super long deal.  Give him a 5 to 7 year deal max.  Do not expect him to carry the offense.  Maybe he repeats what he did first time ever, but generally he has been a below average offensive player.  Do not look at his one outlier year and think he will repeat it for years to come. 

[IndianaTwin]

As implied above, the two main reasons Swanson isn’t Correa are that he ain’t gonna need $300M and he ain’t gonna need 13 years. 
 

Given the FO’s desire for flexibility, I’d still like to sign him. I like Farmer and I get that Lewis will be ready soon, but the ability to use Farmer at both SS and 3B, Lewis and Lee coming, and possibility of moving Swanson to 2B in a couple years when Polanco leaves are all valuable. 

[Sparky1]

Just sign Rodon already. Just once I would like to see the Twins sign an ace even if they have to overpay. Now is the time, spend some of what you would have spent on Correa and use it toward a top notch pitcher. Fans are tired of always signing a previously injured pitcher hoping to make a comeback. JUST DO IT.