No FA left... now what?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Twins are not going to sign Rodon.
Correa signing here will not impact the Twins approach to the FA market.
The last few days has seen a large portion of potential names that would move the Twins needle sign or be traded elsewhere.

Now what?

Please save your complaining about the FO for another thread.  I would like to know what options you think the Twins realistically have left.  Trades?  Youth movement?  

(For those of you fighting off a heart attack about the Twins potentially entering retool or rebuild mode, I recommend you get your affairs in order...)

[chpettit19]

It feels like a shakeup to the core/bringing in of the new core is on it's way. Sano already gone. Kepler feels like they have him packaged up and ready to ship out. Buxton not going anywhere. Polanco and Arraez both reportedly available in trades. Feels like they're attempting to put Buxton and Correa at the top of the lineup and turn the rest over to the youth. Maeda, Gray, Mahle holding their spots for the year while the youth start taking over the rotation when injuries occur then being gone after the year (I could see a Mahle extension, though). It just feels like they're ready to make some drastic moves if they can get the right return. Hopefully being more mindful of injury concerns and limiting the number of "injury prone" guys on the roster.

It's exciting and scary all at once. I can support the idea of letting Buxton and Correa lead the new core of Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. but that is a lot of faith in those young guys figuring things out, and staying healthy. If that's the plan I really hope they sign Vazquez to help usher in the young arms. I don't mind Jeffers, but I want a veteran behind the plate helping to lead the young arms through a game. I'd also splurge in the pen to make sure I give the team every chance to lock down wins.

[CRF]

I know it's not really the way it is...but it sure seems like we're stuck in neutral, when other teams have the pedal to the metal. We need to get something going. Here's just a few FA names still available. 

Vasquez and Narvaez are still out there. We sure need a catcher.

Infielders: Obviously, Correa and Swanson are available, along with Iglesias. Drury is still out there.

Outfielders: Gallo, Benintendi, Myers, Conforto, Mancini are still out there. 

The pitchers are mostly gone. Unless you want Archer, Bundy, Hill, Pineda, or Sanchez back. I sure don't. 

I don't know if any of those guys does anything for you, but it would be nice if we make a move or two. Maybe get a few trades going. I know it's a long way until next season, but the pickings are getting thin already. 

[DocBauer]

So, assuming no Correa, no Rodon, and probably no Swanson?

1} Vasquez or Narvaez at catcher. I guess the Twins, so far, haven't been in on Narvaez and like Barnhart more. 

2} Grab Wil Myers. The OF and the lineup need his RH bat. He'll play a lot, though might not be handed an every day job. He'll PH, DH once in a while, and rotate in at LF and RF with Kirilloff (1B), Larnach, Gordon, and Wallner, even if Kepler is moved. 

3} Time to snag a couple pen arms with all the money not spent on Correa. A couple 1 or 2 year deals and just ramp up the relief corps and not even worry about Alcala being back. He's just gravy at that point, and he'll be needed sooner or later.

4} Do we still sign someone like Iglesias or Andrus at SS? It frees up Farmer to be a super utility guy for us. But is it necessary at this point?

5} I don't know that there's a single rotation arm worth bringing in at this point. Do we want to trade from the roster and a prospect or two for someone like Lopez? Does that move the needle enough to make a difference? I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm just not sure. And that's why I have it at #5 on my list.

[Nashvilletwin]

FDG, you ask a reasonable question.

Let’s see what happens with CC.  But assuming he goes elsewhere, the “youth movement”/“competitive rebuild” is likely upon us. What will that look like? Here are a few predictions:

Kepler and Polanco are gone no later than the deadline (Kepler likely this week, lol).

Larnach and Kiriloff get every chance to get healthy and play meaningful innings. Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, Kiriloff and Wallner are our five outfielders starting the year. 

One of Mahle, Gray and Maeda is extended - the other two are moved at the deadline if we are not in contention.

Lewis, Lee, Julien, Wallner and Martin are all on the big club playing valuable innings by August.

Arraez and Farmer stay the entire year.  Arraez because we need someone to put some butts in the seats besides 100 - Game Buxton and Farmer because we need at least one adult in the room.

SWR, Varland, Henriquez and Enlow are on the big club pitching meaningful innings by mid-season.

Our payroll drops to under $100MM, saving us $50MM to reinvest for 2024 after we see what sticks from the above.

We add a few more relievers this year because we all know that a shut down pen is the cheapest way to being relevant (especially with a five inning/two times through the order starter strategy).

Finally, ownership realises that W-L is not the sole basis for judging success this upcoming season - young player development is more important. The epiphany is Rocco and crew are not the right guys to develop young talent and he is replaced after next season.

Honestly, no heart troubles here. Just the opposite. We embrace our business model as a small-mid market team and we build a solid young core on a limited payroll (somewhat aligning revenues - lower expected gate - with expenses) until we can augment that visible core with some FA talent to open up a couple year window.

Btw, assuming we are not in contention and we managed to sign CC, the above still pretty much holds true except Farmer is also moved at the deadline,  and we have a little less to spend next off-season. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

If they fall at signing CC and Rodon, I guess you punt and start over. Which makes no sense given an the prospects they dealt last year. 

Lopez or a different Miami pitcher? If SF signs CC, I want Crawford here. No way I trade for a RP. They are flush in options there. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I think the lack of moves being made by the Twins so far has to be pushing him in other directions.  We know he wants to get paid, but does he want to sit through a few years of mediocracy hoping that things turn around?

[bap3141]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The Twins are not going to sign Rodon.
Correa signing here will not impact the Twins approach to the FA market.
The last few days has seen a large portion of potential names that would move the Twins needle sign or be traded elsewhere.

Now what?

Please save your complaining about the FO for another thread.  I would like to know what options you think the Twins realistically have left.  Trades?  Youth movement?  

(For those of you fighting off a heart attack about the Twins potentially entering retool or rebuild mode, I recommend you get your affairs in order...)

Trades? Sure. 

 

But there are lots of players left that I'd consider signing that can help this team and won't cost a ton:

 

Andrew Benintendi, Corey Kluber, J.D. Martinez, Tommy Pham, Nathan Eovaldi (reunite with Vasquez), Michael Brantley, Adam Ottavino, Brandon Belt, Jurickson Profar, Yuli Gurriel, Elvis Andrus, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall. Tyler Naquin, Taylor Rogers, Trey Mancini, Michael Fulmer, Aroldis Chapman.

 

A solid mix of former stars, good to very good current players and potential reclamation projects.

 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, bap3141 said:

Trades? Sure. 

 

But there are lots of players left that I'd consider signing that can help this team and won't cost a ton:

 

Andrew Benintendi, Corey Kluber, J.D. Martinez, Tommy Pham, Nathan Eovaldi (reunite with Vasquez), Michael Brantley, Adam Ottavino, Brandon Belt, Jurickson Profar, Yuli Gurriel, Elvis Andrus, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall. Tyler Naquin, Taylor Rogers, Trey Mancini, Michael Fulmer, Aroldis Chapman.

 

A solid mix of former stars, good to very good current players and potential reclamation projects.

 

Most of those are downgrades. Yikes. I like the RPs..... But that's about it, I think. 

[bap3141]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Most of those are downgrades. Yikes. I like the RPs..... But that's about it, I think. 

Downgrades to who? 

[tony&rodney]

J. D. Martinez is still a decent bat, although it would be only in a DH role.

Totally different, Jurickson Profar is a good baseball player but I'm good with Nick Gordon in LF.

[talkintwins]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lopez or a different Miami pitcher? If SF signs CC, I want Crawford here. No way I trade for a RP. They are flush in options there. 

Marlins have a few interesting pitchers not named Lopez. Rogers & Luzardo might be options & should be strongly considered.

Giants intend to keep Crawford & move him to 3B if they sign Correa.

Worse yet, check out how many key free agent shortstops will be available next winter... 

[Linus]

I don’t see the Twins starting a rebuild as they have Gray Mahle and Maeda for one more year. After next year it’s almost inevitable. 
Once the change happens look out as the spectrum of outcomes is very wide. If the Younger guys develop and stay healthy the Twins will be set for a good run. If they flop or keep getting hurt we could be in for lots of bad baseball for a really long time because there ain’t much left on the farm. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, talkintwins said:

Marlins have a few interesting pitchers not named Lopez.

Edward Cabrera has real upside. It would a coup to land the big guy. Maybe for Larnach. I don't know what Miami wants.

[DocBauer]

22 minutes ago, Linus said:

I don’t see the Twins starting a rebuild as they have Gray Mahle and Maeda for one more year. After next year it’s almost inevitable. 
Once the change happens look out as the spectrum of outcomes is very wide. If the Younger guys develop and stay healthy the Twins will be set for a good run. If they flop or keep getting hurt we could be in for lots of bad baseball for a really long time because there ain’t much left on the farm. 

Linus, I "liked" your post because I agree with much of it. But I'm going to disagree with the idea of 2024 being a rebuild season. And I don't want to derail the thread, but I see 2024 as an interesting retooling year even IF Correa somehow comes back to the Twins.

Agree there are players that need to get healthy and stay that way. Agree the system is top heavy with talent and then there is a gap down to A ball. Agree there are a variety of potential outcomes. And maybe my glasses are a little rose-tinted, but I don't see doom and gloom despite being confused and frustrated with the current offseason. (Which, of course, isn't done yet).

I believe the Twins traded for Mahle with full intent on keeping him. Not so sure about Gray and Maeda, but either, I doubt both, could also be re-signed. Ryan should get better. I like Ober a lot if he can stay on the mound. They need SWR, and Varland to begin establishing themselves at the ML level. Crossing my fingers on Balazovic. Winder??? Whether it's now or next year, probably have to make a serious add via FA or trade to augment the rotation. I still see a good floor to work with.

While I'm not going to expect a sudden rise from Sands, Henriquez, Headrick, Laweryson and some others, I can see a TON of middle and perhaps better relief options to join the pen and deepen it.

It's,  unfortunately true, that we're in a "wait and see and hope" situation with Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner. But there's a LOT of talent there! Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin (OF?), and maybe even a surprise like Severino will be ready. But even with a Correa signing, these young players are going to, we suppose, keep getting better and more ready.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, bap3141 said:

Trades? Sure. 

 

But there are lots of players left that I'd consider signing that can help this team and won't cost a ton:

 

Andrew Benintendi, Corey Kluber, J.D. Martinez, Tommy Pham, Nathan Eovaldi (reunite with Vasquez), Michael Brantley, Adam Ottavino, Brandon Belt, Jurickson Profar, Yuli Gurriel, Elvis Andrus, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall. Tyler Naquin, Taylor Rogers, Trey Mancini, Michael Fulmer, Aroldis Chapman.

 

A solid mix of former stars, good to very good current players and potential reclamation projects.

 

I wouldn't use the word "downgrade" to discuss this group as a whole, but there really aren't any needle movers here.  Outside of the BP guys, the rest are guys that would be more complimentary to an established team.  In that sense, there really isn't much that would drive paying these guys higher salaries than what we currently have. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I wouldn't use the word "downgrade" to discuss this group as a whole, but there really aren't any needle movers here.  Outside of the BP guys, the rest are guys that would be more complimentary to an established team.  In that sense, there really isn't much that would drive paying these guys higher salaries than what we currently have. 

Outside the RP..... Who would you cut to sign one of these guys? Some of them are downright not good.

[bap3141]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I wouldn't use the word "downgrade" to discuss this group as a whole, but there really aren't any needle movers here.  Outside of the BP guys, the rest are guys that would be more complimentary to an established team.  In that sense, there really isn't much that would drive paying these guys higher salaries than what we currently have. 

 

What do you mean by "needle movers"? Guys like Rodon, and Correa?  There are only a handful of those guys in any free agent class.  Many of these guys would be upgrades on open roster spots and worth taking a flier on. 

[bap3141]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Outside the RP..... Who would you cut to sign one of these guys? Some of them are downright not good.

Yes, some of them would be reclamation projects -- as I stated.  However, there are some solid options in the list of players that I provided...  Nothing wrong with Benintendi, Mancini, and Eovaldi, for example.

 

Why don't you tell us who you like or do you think this Twins team should stick with what it has already?  

[weitz41]

No Correa and No Rodon. This was very likely at the beginning of this offseason and seems less likely now then it was then. If I remember correctly most on this site were saying 10-15% chance they resign Correa at the start. 50/50 now? I'm not willing to give up on this just yet.

Rodon has been a crowd favorite here. But the contracts handed out so far have him wanting 7 years at IDK $30 mil? Does that come with a 7 year bumper to bumper warrantee? 

What now?

How about Nathan Eovaldi 3@18-20, Wil Wyers 2@7.5 and Aroldis Chapmen 1@10. Trade for a SS. Kiner Fafela should work and not cost much in prospects. Plus an extension or two. Arreaz and Mahle are what I'd like to see.

Do these moves make us a series favorite. No of course not. These moves plus Miranda getting better, Arreaz being Arreaz, Polanco healthy, Larnach and Kirilloff being league average, Ryan's 3rd pitch gets better should get us in the playoffs. As Philly just proved if you peek at the right time you don't have to have the best record for the season. Just in each series in the post season.

Retool. At the start on the season because we missed out on some free agents? No. I think they'll just run it back with Farmer as the starting SS. By the trade deadline if they play as bad as they did in the 2nd half of last season we are going to have a large amount of new prospects in the farm system and young guys starting everywhere. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

9 hours ago, bap3141 said:

 

What do you mean by "needle movers"? Guys like Rodon, and Correa?  There are only a handful of those guys in any free agent class.  Many of these guys would be upgrades on open roster spots and worth taking a flier on. 

This isn't true.  IMO the needle movers can be different for every team.  The Twins signing Vazquez is a needle mover for them because he (should be) a demonstrable offensive and defensive upgrade at catcher.

Some of these guys may be slight upgrades, but will cost excessively more than the guys the Twins currently have on the books.  Now you are into cost-benefit discussions.

I am all for taking fliers, but the cost needs to be low, and there needs to be a real chance of a benefit.  Joey Gallo is a perfect example of a flier.  Great defensive player, great power, how much will his offense improve with the shift rule changes.  That being said, I would only sign him to a MiLB contract.

[Mike Sixel]

9 hours ago, bap3141 said:

Yes, some of them would be reclamation projects -- as I stated.  However, there are some solid options in the list of players that I provided...  Nothing wrong with Benintendi, Mancini, and Eovaldi, for example.

 

Why don't you tell us who you like or do you think this Twins team should stick with what it has already?  

Of the available free agents, only the RPs are certain to be good options relative to current players, other than the two SS. And Rodon, but they aren't signing him to seven, or even five, years. I don't see any advantage to signing a reclamation project in the OF, unless they don't feel their guys are healthy. They have plenty of pitchers who look like number four or five starters, don't need those.

Of course I'd love for them to add more great players, there just aren't many left in free agency. 

[nicksaviking]

I have literally zero interest in any free agents other than Correa and Rodon. I think the team will improve more by giving the young internal options the experience way more than whatever minimal improvement you'd get from the various remaining free agents.

If they want to sign a reliever or two fine. I suppose I can distrust a free agent reliever just as much as I can distrust a reliever already on the team.

[IndianaTwin]

17 hours ago, bap3141 said:

....Andrew Benintendi, Corey Kluber, J.D. Martinez, Tommy Pham, Nathan Eovaldi (reunite with Vasquez), Michael Brantley, Adam Ottavino, Brandon Belt, Jurickson Profar, Yuli Gurriel, Elvis Andrus, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall. Tyler Naquin, Taylor Rogers, Trey Mancini, Michael Fulmer, Aroldis Chapman.

 

A solid mix of former stars, good to very good current players and potential reclamation projects.

 

Me no likey the thought of a five (or even six) year commitment for Rodon. 

Using the MLBTR predictions, I'd rather have Kluber ($12M), Ottavino ($7M) and Rogers ($10M) than Rodon for $28M, particularly when none of the three would require a commitment of more than 2-3 years. Or Eovaldi ($17M), Ottavino ($7M) and either Fulmer or Chapman at $3M.

(MLBTR has have Fulmer and Chapman outside their top 50, which points to low-dollar or minor league signings. If that's indeed the case, take both, aside from whatever else is happening.)

Also, with the front office's penchant for tacking an option year on the back, doing that with any of these older guys gives them more flexibility going forward. "Flexibility" seems to be one of the FO's core values.*

 

*As opposed to for me. On flexibility, I say, "If God wanted us to be able to bend down and touch our toes, God would have put them on our knees." 

[USAFChief]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Outside the RP..... Who would you cut to sign one of these guys? Some of them are downright not good.

I wouldn't mind giving JD Martinez 500 PAs at DH.