A Logical Trade Partner for the Twins and Max Kepler

[Nick Nelson]

It's no secret that Max Kepler is on the trading block this winter, entering his final guaranteed season under team control while growing redundant on the Twins roster.

In sizing up possible trade partners for Kepler, there is one team that stands out to me as a particularly intuitive fit: an AL West club with whom Minnesota may find itself competing for a playoff spot next year.

Image courtesy of Brad Penner, USA Today

 

The 2022 season was a characteristic one for Max Kepler: solid yet underwhelming. He was a fairly valuable overall player, posting 2.0 fWAR thanks primarily to his elite defense in right field. His offense, as usual, was suppressed by a debilitatingly low BABIP as opposing defenses suffocated him with the shift.

There's encouraging news on that front, which could enhance Kepler's marketability. But more on that shortly. The bottom line is that, even if his luster has largely worn off in the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler IS a quality asset with appeal to many contending teams in need of a lefty corner outfield bat.

There are several such clubs, and one of the best ways to identify them is by following who is pursuing (and missing out on) free agents that share the same profile. 

Among them: the Seattle Mariners.

There are a few different reasons the Mariners stand out to me as a logical trade partner for the Twins and Kepler. The first is that their general manager is Jerry Dipoto, one of the most prolific wheelers and dealers on the GM circuit. Trade speculation is always valid when Jerry's involved.

Seattle's specific situation also frames them as a practical landing spot for Kepler. The M's got horrible production from both outfield corners in 2022, and it was one of the biggest flaws on a 90-win team that made the playoffs but couldn't push deep.

Mitch Haniger's injury-plagued year put right field in limbo for Seattle, while Jesse Winker was a defensive disaster and mediocre bat in left. Haniger's now gone, with Teoscar Hernandez acquired from Toronto to replace his powerful right-handed bat. It still seems as though Dipoto and Seattle are still seeking another lefty-hitting outfielder to complement Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez, as illustrated by their reported pursuit of Brandon Nimmo (who re-signed with the Mets) and Andrew Benintendi. 

The Mariners are looking for assurance and Kepler offers it. He's been worth two or more Wins Above Replacement in every full season of his career. Entering his age-30 season, he's a safe bet to at least be a solid fixture and a big upgrade over what the Mariners had last year. The new defensive shifting limitations, along with the outfielder's stellar Statcast measurables, could hint at legitimate upside.

Kepler's contract situation – one more guaranteed season at $8.5 million with a 2024 team option at $10 million – is part of what I see as making him attractive to Seattle specifically. They have a pair of top prospects who happen to be lefty-swinging outfielders: Jarred Kelenic (23) and Taylor Trammell (25). Both have struggled to turn the corner in the majors, but its too early to give up on either.

And by following this route, the Mariners wouldn't need to. The flexible control over Kepler's next two seasons enables Seattle to keep the door open for both, while gaining reliable veteran stability as they push to take the next step in the interim.

From Minnesota's perspective, what makes Seattle an intriguing partner is their abundance of young pitching. In addition to veteran stalwarts Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, as well as deadline acquisition Luis Castillo, the Mariners had three different pitchers 27 and under in 2022 who made 25+ starts with an ERA of 3.73 or lower (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen).

Kirby or Gilbert would likely not be on the table unless Minnesota offered significantly more than Kepler. But Flexen seems attainable, if not one of Seattle's many relief arms or mid-tier prospects. 

 

What do you think? Which teams strike you as the best trade partners for Kepler, and what would a realistic return look like? 

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[kmeyer14]

If Flexen is the reason we give up Kepler, I'll hate the deal. I'm all for moving Kepler, but Flexen does nothing for us. I'd rather trade him for whatever type of prospect we could get. Yes Flexen had a 3.73 era last year, but the 4.62 xERA and 4.49 FIP paint a much different picture. I want nothing do with a guy that struck out 6.21 per 9 last year. Feels like a really low ceiling, back-end starter. If this was last year, I might be more for it but we've got plenty of mid-to-back end of the rotation arms that I don't really see the need to actively acquire more. Not to mention he's making $8 million this year so it's not even a salary dump (which would be my goal with moving Kepler, salary dump him and chase a Correa/Bassitt package or something like that). 

 

[Nick Nelson]

49 minutes ago, kmeyer14 said:

If Flexen is the reason we give up Kepler, I'll hate the deal. I'm all for moving Kepler, but Flexen does nothing for us. I'd rather trade him for whatever type of prospect we could get. Yes Flexen had a 3.73 era last year, but the 4.62 xERA and 4.49 FIP paint a much different picture. I want nothing do with a guy that struck out 6.21 per 9 last year. Feels like a really low ceiling, back-end starter. If this was last year, I might be more for it but we've got plenty of mid-to-back end of the rotation arms that I don't really see the need to actively acquire more. Not to mention he's making $8 million this year so it's not even a salary dump (which would be my goal with moving Kepler, salary dump him and chase a Correa/Bassitt package or something like that). 

 

Flexen would not be the reason for giving up Kepler in that scenario. My thinking is that Seattle would be more willing to give up Miller (their second best pitching prospect) if they can move Flexen's $8M salary in the deal to offset Kepler's. It's about buying a better prospect since the Twins have no shortage of cash.

I'd have low expectations for Flex but he's not without upside. Check out his 2021 numbers.

[dxpavelka]

I love when folks make such a good case for the other team to trade for a guy that it would appear foolish for us to do so.

[Kevin Urdahl]

As a Twins fan living in Seattle, I would do this deal. I've seen Flexen pitch on a number of occasions and he does have upside. If you could get him and a good pitching prospect for Kep that would be a win.

[weitz41]

Seems like a fair trade. I would rather wait till the trade deadline to move Kepler. To many unanswered questions in the OF right now imo.

[MABB1959]

Woo hoo!  Another boring trade.  I feel like we are on the outside looking in and when Correa goes elsewhere they will say we tried.  

[Riverbrian]

If Kepler is two wins above replacement for the Mariners, wouldn't he be two wins above replacement for us. 

If Kelenic and Trammell have struggled to turn a corner. Couldn't the same be said about Larnach and Kirilloff. 

Is it possible we are trying to get rid of Kepler because the two wins above replacement isn't keeping us warm at night.  

[roger]

My concern is who plays right field for the Twins.  Saw lots of ugly defense out there late last year.  I mean ugly.

Plus, Keps just might turn the corner once the entire team isn't playing on the right side of the infield.  Yes, he should have learned how to beat the shift, but he didn't.  Would hate to trade him now and see him hit .260-.275 with 20+ home runs along with his best in the league D.  Would hate it.  So for me, they had better get a lot if they move him, preferably a very good young catcher, which is their greatest need.

 

[old nurse]

Batted ball location would suggest that Kepler will benefit from the 2b no longer being able to be in short right. What the Twins have had to play in the outfield the last 2 years would indicate not the greatest outfield depth.  The multiple injuries over the last 2 years show the need for depth

If Miller is more than a back end starter as a ceiling the Mariners are not going to trade him for Kepler. Unless you think that Seattle is desperate enough for an OF.  That desperation might not show itself until spring training

[nicksaviking]

It would seem to me that Flexen's extremely poor strikeout numbers are more likely than not an omen of a quick decline in performance. I'm all for trading Kepler, but assuming this guy is then by default given a rotation spot over Ober, Varland or SWR, count me out.

If they'd plan on putting him in the pen, then, sure, I guess they can give it a shot, though I suspect trading Kepler for a middle reliever would probably draw heavy criticism from many corners.

[chpettit19]

If I could get Miller in return for Kepler I'd do that in an instant. He'd be the best pitching prospect in the org immediately, with only Prielipp being his equal in terms of ceiling, but Miller is significantly closer to debuting. Could probably pitch out of the pen immediately. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am not trying to sound snarky here, but outside of MLB Trade Rumors reporting on Aaron's Gleeman's vague Athletic article, has there been any validation that the Twins are truly looking to move Kepler?  I do not recall seeing anything anywhere. 

[tony&rodney]

Flexen is a solid pitcher and Miller is a fine prospect, but they closely replicate what the Twins currently field in their starting rotation and pitching prospects. The thought is worthy but the transaction would not be.

The Twins needs are for pitchers who slot ahead of the current group, which is a difficult task, and a starting catcher. Falvey will need to surprise us. 

[Paul Walerius]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Woo hoo!  Another boring trade.  I feel like we are on the outside looking in and when Correa goes elsewhere they will say we tried.  

Correa is not worth the contract he will get.   

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Don't trade Kep just to trade him.  If the Twins do not get a good return, then keep him and if he is not part of our long-term plans, trade him at the deadline.

Would the Marlins be a good trade partner for him?  I keep hearing that they need hitters.

[Thebigalguy]

I don't see the point in such a trade. Kep is good in right defensively. Without the shift, his numbers are bound to improve. If he gives up his playboy ways and gets his mind on his game, I see a big season coming his way.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not trying to sound snarky here, but outside of MLB Trade Rumors reporting on Aaron's Gleeman's vague Athletic article, has there been any validation that the Twins are truly looking to move Kepler?  I do not recall seeing anything anywhere. 

I think anybody without a no trade clause is available if the return is right.  I think sometimes you have to put a little buzz out there.  If the team gets an offer on anyone that has some level of replaceability the team will listen. If they come out ahead, bye bye player.  The real question is who would anyone want? A league average outfielder, a reigning batting champion. If the FO thinks it is rebuilding time, starting pitching. I would not be surprised if a SP would be dealt if they liked what SWR or Varland showed last year.  I would add that I don’t think any trades happen until Correa signs somewhere.  That will be 2 months of angst for Twins fans if not 3

[SwainZag]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not trying to sound snarky here, but outside of MLB Trade Rumors reporting on Aaron's Gleeman's vague Athletic article, has there been any validation that the Twins are truly looking to move Kepler?  I do not recall seeing anything anywhere. 

Even in that article he stated that the Twins are not shopping Kepler, but there had been interest elsewhere.  I don't think there has ever been anything from the Twins saying they were actively looking to move him.

[Reptevia]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Would the Marlins be a good trade partner for him?  I keep hearing that they need hitters

No. In Kepler they would get no hitting help. 

[MTV]

For me, it’s not about finding a team that will take him, but rather what team will put up a strong return. I tried a couple fits, but I found the White Sox as the best option. They need a lefty outfielder with good defense, and have a surplus of solid relievers. So my idea was Max Kepler to the White Sox for Reynaldo Lopez: Lopez is a bad starter turned high-end reliever, and will only cost the twins $3 million for a year of control. He fits the trade simulation too.

[nicksaviking]

11 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not trying to sound snarky here, but outside of MLB Trade Rumors reporting on Aaron's Gleeman's vague Athletic article, has there been any validation that the Twins are truly looking to move Kepler?  I do not recall seeing anything anywhere. 

I don’t think you need a rumor, Kepler is the definition of a movable asset. A vet who’s blocking prospects on an expiring contract that’s not cheap, but also not a hinderance for the acquiring team.

He might stay, but the dots connect themselves as far as a possible trade goes.

[Mike Sixel]

Trading Kepler is what the Rays would do at this point.....

[Stew]

I would rather see Kepler traded at the deadline. If possible with a minor league prospect to get something better than flexing .  Besides I'm interested in how Kepler plays now that he's healthy and no shift will be used .

[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Trading Kepler is what the Rays would do at this point.....

What would the Cardinals do? I'm more interested in emulating a franchise with an engaged fan base.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don’t think you need a rumor, Kepler is the definition of a movable asset. A vet who’s blocking prospects on an expiring contract that’s not cheap, but also not a hinderance for the acquiring team.

He might stay, but the dots connect themselves as far as a possible trade goes.

I do not disagree with your assessment.  But everyone is acting like there is a ton of smoke regarding Kepler being traded when in actuality there really is none.

[nicksaviking]

52 minutes ago, ashbury said:

What would the Cardinals do? I'm more interested in emulating a franchise with an engaged fan base.

I think that starts with naming your stadium after an alcohol purveyor instead of a department store.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

What would the Cardinals do? I'm more interested in emulating a franchise with an engaged fan base.

Spend a lot more money. 

[SwainZag]

47 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think that starts with naming your stadium after an alcohol purveyor instead of a department store.

Tell Surly to pony up some cash for naming right.

[harmony55]

Chris Flexen may be vastly undervalued. Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR
TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR
CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is at least two years younger than Walker and Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

The Chicago Cubs signed Taillon to a four-year. $68 million contract while the Philadelphia Phillies signed Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract.

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

According to Baseball Trade Values, Seattle's No. 30 competitive balance draft pick ($6.2 million) should be enough to land Max Kepler ($5.8 million).