The “Meh”-sota Twins?

[Ben Reimler]

Last spring’s signing of Carlos Correa was as unfathomable as it was exciting. Coming off a disappointing 2021 season, this was a much needed jolt for Twins’ territory. This unlikely pairing, however, overshadowed two fundamental dynamics for the club. First, even after inking the superstar shortstop, the Twins were projected by most systems to finish around the .500 mark. Much to our chagrin, it turns out there was validity to these projections, as the Twins finished 78-84. As welcomed as it was, Correa’s presence also eclipsed discussion of an emerging young core on the Twins’ roster. In fact, in 2022, the Minnesota Twins were the 11th youngest roster in baseball. Even if we assume that Correa won’t rejoin the Twins for their 2023 campaign, shouldn’t this potential promise elicit excitement from fans? To put it another way, despite the youth on the Twins’ roster, why does the future of the club feel underwhelming? 

Before turning our attention to the youth on the Twins’ roster, the performance of Minnesota mainstays is partially responsible for the apathy ahead of 2023. Byron Buxton has unquestionably been worth his contract, but it’s fair to say the slugger’s chronic health issues are frustrating. While durable, Jorge Polanco appears to be on the descent. Miguel Sano’s uneven and inconsistent play ushered in the end of his time in the land of 10,000 lakes. And Max Kepler and Luis Arraez may soon find themselves in different uniforms. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Sonny Gray have the most service time of Twins’ hurlers, but questions abound about the health of Mahle and Maeda, in particular. Whether age-driven decline, health concerns, or both, the output from veteran Twins is highly uncertain. So, will the youth movement lift the Twins? 

Let’s get this out of the way: Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, and Jhoan Duran may all find themselves in an All-Star game in the near future; Falvey and Levine deserve credit for finding and cultivating this talent. Additionally, after a strong 2023 MiLB season, Matt Wallner may soon find himself navigating right field at Target Field more regularly. With Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach, however, expectations have been severely tempered. Both Kiriloff and Larnach have little defensive upside, and with persistent injuries, their contributions at the plate have been limited. Though a positive WAR player, Ryan Jeffers’ struggles to throw out base stealers and cold-streaks at the plate have shrunk his upside. 

On the pitching side, the Twins will enter 2023 with a host of starting arms that are quality depth pieces, but don’t move the needle. Bailey Ober, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder are major league pitchers, but their proper home is in the back of a rotation.  Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow and Jordan Balazovic, meanwhile, remain question marks until they’ve had time to prove themselves. Though anchored by Duran and Jorge Lopez, Cody Stashak, Griffin Jax, Caleb Theilbar, and Jorge Alcala actually create a high-ceiling for the Twins’ bullpen, albeit with a low floor. Yet, it’s hard to blame fans for not getting overly enthused by bullpen arms. 

Taken together, the 2023 Minnesota Twins may have depth, but high-end talent is in short supply. There are more questions than answers amongst Twins veterans, and as an organization, the Twins only have one global top-100 prospect (Brooks Lee). Maybe Falvey and Levine will surprise us all by reuniting with Carlos Correa or adding a front-line starting arm. If not, both the young core and veterans on this roster are largely serviceable but not special. A young core, supplemented by talented veterans is a regular blueprint across Major League Baseball, and it appears that’s the hope for the Falvey and Levine administration. Here’s the problem: uncertainty over Minnesota’s veterans looms large and much of the youth on this roster have a limited upside.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Wait a few more years, and the Twins may again have a lineup almost as formidable and exciting as the 2019-2020 teams and some of these other powerhouses we see in MLB right now. What’s unfathomable to me is how bad the Twins pitching is. Like you said, they have some nice pieces, and they do get some good performances, but the whole is considerably less than the sum of its parts, in my opinion.
 

what youth would you say have the highest upside?

Edited December 11, 2022 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Ben Reimler]

I know Royce Lewis has actually seen big-league action, but one of the best parts of his game was speed. Given that he's now torn his ACL twice, I think that attribute suffers, so I'd argue Brooks Lee has the highest upside. How about you?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 hours ago, Ben Reimler said:

Last spring’s signing of Carlos Correa was as unfathomable as it was exciting. Coming off a disappointing 2021 season, this was a much needed jolt for Twins’ territory. This unlikely pairing, however, overshadowed two fundamental dynamics for the club. First, even after inking the superstar shortstop, the Twins were projected by most systems to finish around the .500 mark. Much to our chagrin, it turns out there was validity to these projections, as the Twins finished 78-84. As welcomed as it was, Correa’s presence also eclipsed discussion of an emerging young core on the Twins’ roster. In fact, in 2022, the Minnesota Twins were the 11th youngest roster in baseball. Even if we assume that Correa won’t rejoin the Twins for their 2023 campaign, shouldn’t this potential promise elicit excitement from fans? To put it another way, despite the youth on the Twins’ roster, why does the future of the club feel underwhelming? 

Before turning our attention to the youth on the Twins’ roster, the performance of Minnesota mainstays is partially responsible for the apathy ahead of 2023. Byron Buxton has unquestionably been worth his contract, but it’s fair to say the slugger’s chronic health issues are frustrating. While durable, Jorge Polanco appears to be on the descent. Miguel Sano’s uneven and inconsistent play ushered in the end of his time in the land of 10,000 lakes. And Max Kepler and Luis Arraez may soon find themselves in different uniforms. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Sonny Gray have the most service time of Twins’ hurlers, but questions abound about the health of Mahle and Maeda, in particular. Whether age-driven decline, health concerns, or both, the output from veteran Twins is highly uncertain. So, will the youth movement lift the Twins? 

Let’s get this out of the way: Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, and Jhoan Duran may all find themselves in an All-Star game in the near future; Falvey and Levine deserve credit for finding and cultivating this talent. Additionally, after a strong 2023 MiLB season, Matt Wallner may soon find himself navigating right field at Target Field more regularly. With Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach, however, expectations have been severely tempered. Both Kiriloff and Larnach have little defensive upside, and with persistent injuries, their contributions at the plate have been limited. Though a positive WAR player, Ryan Jeffers’ struggles to throw out base stealers and cold-streaks at the plate have shrunk his upside. 

On the pitching side, the Twins will enter 2023 with a host of starting arms that are quality depth pieces, but don’t move the needle. Bailey Ober, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder are major league pitchers, but their proper home is in the back of a rotation.  Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow and Jordan Balazovic, meanwhile, remain question marks until they’ve had time to prove themselves. Though anchored by Duran and Jorge Lopez, Cody Stashak, Griffin Jax, Caleb Theilbar, and Jorge Alcala actually create a high-ceiling for the Twins’ bullpen, albeit with a low floor. Yet, it’s hard to blame fans for not getting overly enthused by bullpen arms. 

Taken together, the 2023 Minnesota Twins may have depth, but high-end talent is in short supply. There are more questions than answers amongst Twins veterans, and as an organization, the Twins only have one global top-100 prospect (Brooks Lee). Maybe Falvey and Levine will surprise us all by reuniting with Carlos Correa or adding a front-line starting arm. If not, both the young core and veterans on this roster are largely serviceable but not special. A young core, supplemented by talented veterans is a regular blueprint across Major League Baseball, and it appears that’s the hope for the Falvey and Levine administration. Here’s the problem: uncertainty over Minnesota’s veterans looms large and much of the youth on this roster have a limited upside.

 

There’s 30 teams. 11th youngest is middle third, median, average. They are average in age in MLB, not young.

they currently have many expiring contracts and are on the cusp of reducing payroll further in 2024, that are the top 6 age players on the team. Kepler, Gray, Maeda, all expire after 23, and Polanco has a vesting option at 550 plate appearances. Garlick and Megill are year to year.

[notoriousgod71]

17 hours ago, Ben Reimler said:

Last spring’s signing of Carlos Correa was as unfathomable as it was exciting. Coming off a disappointing 2021 season, this was a much needed jolt for Twins’ territory. This unlikely pairing, however, overshadowed two fundamental dynamics for the club. First, even after inking the superstar shortstop, the Twins were projected by most systems to finish around the .500 mark. Much to our chagrin, it turns out there was validity to these projections, as the Twins finished 78-84. As welcomed as it was, Correa’s presence also eclipsed discussion of an emerging young core on the Twins’ roster. In fact, in 2022, the Minnesota Twins were the 11th youngest roster in baseball. Even if we assume that Correa won’t rejoin the Twins for their 2023 campaign, shouldn’t this potential promise elicit excitement from fans? To put it another way, despite the youth on the Twins’ roster, why does the future of the club feel underwhelming? 

Before turning our attention to the youth on the Twins’ roster, the performance of Minnesota mainstays is partially responsible for the apathy ahead of 2023. Byron Buxton has unquestionably been worth his contract, but it’s fair to say the slugger’s chronic health issues are frustrating. While durable, Jorge Polanco appears to be on the descent. Miguel Sano’s uneven and inconsistent play ushered in the end of his time in the land of 10,000 lakes. And Max Kepler and Luis Arraez may soon find themselves in different uniforms. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Sonny Gray have the most service time of Twins’ hurlers, but questions abound about the health of Mahle and Maeda, in particular. Whether age-driven decline, health concerns, or both, the output from veteran Twins is highly uncertain. So, will the youth movement lift the Twins? 

Let’s get this out of the way: Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, and Jhoan Duran may all find themselves in an All-Star game in the near future; Falvey and Levine deserve credit for finding and cultivating this talent. Additionally, after a strong 2023 MiLB season, Matt Wallner may soon find himself navigating right field at Target Field more regularly. With Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach, however, expectations have been severely tempered. Both Kiriloff and Larnach have little defensive upside, and with persistent injuries, their contributions at the plate have been limited. Though a positive WAR player, Ryan Jeffers’ struggles to throw out base stealers and cold-streaks at the plate have shrunk his upside. 

On the pitching side, the Twins will enter 2023 with a host of starting arms that are quality depth pieces, but don’t move the needle. Bailey Ober, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder are major league pitchers, but their proper home is in the back of a rotation.  Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow and Jordan Balazovic, meanwhile, remain question marks until they’ve had time to prove themselves. Though anchored by Duran and Jorge Lopez, Cody Stashak, Griffin Jax, Caleb Theilbar, and Jorge Alcala actually create a high-ceiling for the Twins’ bullpen, albeit with a low floor. Yet, it’s hard to blame fans for not getting overly enthused by bullpen arms. 

Taken together, the 2023 Minnesota Twins may have depth, but high-end talent is in short supply. There are more questions than answers amongst Twins veterans, and as an organization, the Twins only have one global top-100 prospect (Brooks Lee). Maybe Falvey and Levine will surprise us all by reuniting with Carlos Correa or adding a front-line starting arm. If not, both the young core and veterans on this roster are largely serviceable but not special. A young core, supplemented by talented veterans is a regular blueprint across Major League Baseball, and it appears that’s the hope for the Falvey and Levine administration. Here’s the problem: uncertainty over Minnesota’s veterans looms large and much of the youth on this roster have a limited upside.

 

Someone should probably reevaluate WAR if Jeffers is a positive. He can't hit and he can't throw out base runners. But, hey, he can occasionally frame a pitch at the expense of turning everyone into Lou Brock on the base paths.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

24 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

Someone should probably reevaluate WAR if Jeffers is a positive. He can't hit and he can't throw out base runners. But, hey, he can occasionally frame a pitch at the expense of turning everyone into Lou Brock on the base paths.

What’s the bigger impact, doing one thing well 120 times per game, or one thing bad once per game?

stepping over dollars to pickup pennies is no way to get rich.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

22 hours ago, Ben Reimler said:

I know Royce Lewis has actually seen big-league action, but one of the best parts of his game was speed. Given that he's now torn his ACL twice, I think that attribute suffers, so I'd argue Brooks Lee has the highest upside. How about you?

Yes, Brooks Lee, and I'm still high on Royce Lewis. I think in a. couple years either one of them will be producing close enough to Correa's levels to not justify Correa's expense. Correa did make sense for last season on 1-yr options.  

[notoriousgod71]

10 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

What’s the bigger impact, doing one thing well 120 times per game, or one thing bad once per game?

stepping over dollars to pickup pennies is no way to get rich.

If only it was that often and was actually quantifiable.