The Latest on the Minnesota Twins and Carlos Correa

[Nick Nelson]

As Carlos Correa weighs his options and moves closer to a decision, it's clear the Minnesota Twins are among the finalists for this premier free agent and superstar. That's exciting! 

But the excitement will vanish if we learn tomorrow that Correa's going with the Giants or Cubs and leaving the Twins in the lurch. How likely is that to happen? Let's get caught up on the latest.

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

 

Without question, the Twins remain intensely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa, which seems to be pushing all other offseason priorities to the backburner. 

Every report on the shortstop's market seems to name them among top remaining suitors, including this latest one from Jon Heyman on Saturday listing the Twins, Giants and Cubs among the "teams in on" Correa. 

More recently, the Yankees have emerged as a known contender for Correa's services, even after inking Aaron Judge to his landmark deal. ESPN's Buster Olney reported that he's "definitely picking up a lot of vibes there that yeah they signed Aaron Judge to that $360 million deal, but they’re working on something big."

It's natural for hometown fans to be skeptical of Minnesota's legitimate involvement at this stage against multiple big-market titans for a free agent likely to land $300M+ guaranteed. But outsiders don't necessarily share that skepticism, including Vegas.

As the website OddsChecker.com pointed out a couple days back, "The Twins are given -150 odds to retain Correa, that’s an implied 60% chance. The San Francisco Giants are right behind them though, as they’re given EVEN odds, an implied 50% chance, to land the star shortstop."

It's unclear exactly when Correa will make a decision. The pressure is turning up on the Twins as time passes, because their contingency plans have rapidly come off the table. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts have already signed. The idea of pivoting to another big bat like Jose Abreu, Willson Contreras or Brandon Nimmo is also diminishing as all those players are off the table.

Carlos Rodon remains at the top of the free agent pitching pool, but his market is robust. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins are viewing Dansby Swanson as a possible Correa fallback option, having met with the shortstop via video call during the Winter Meetings, but personally I hope (and suspect) that's merely a negotiating ploy to parry against Scott Boras, who is understandably doing all he can to land his client an epic payday.

You see it in small, subtle details like Heyman – a known friend if not mouthpiece of Boras – making a point to note Correa's appealing traits in a tweet updating his market. You see it in the fact Correa's free agency continues to linger as his camp evidently plays bidders against one another to run up the price. Eleven-year deals for Turner and Bogaerts set a sharp precedent, and really give Correa and Boras the ability to set their own terms.

Up to this point, the Twins still seem genuinely invested in meeting them. How long will they hang around if the cost keeps rising? How long can we maintain our sanity as this saga drags on and the front office remains stalled out?

Soon enough, the dominoes will begin to drop. It's probably a stretch to call the Twins favorites but without a doubt, they are in there. Would have been difficult to fathom just a few short years ago.

View full article

[Giles Ferrell]

It’s one thing if he signs with the Giants or Cubs. 

 

But the Yankees?! Anyone but the g-d Yankees!

[dberthia]

Would just like this to end so we can put a stop to the incessant and voluminous speculation.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with Tom, that NYY rumor is a bunch of Boras smoke. All this delay is trying to milk the teams, just like Swanson is a counter move. It's getting tiring, a day of recognings I hope will soon come.

[Cris E]

The thing about these ultra-huge contracts is that the number of years is almost irrelevant. 8x$35m=$280m is not a ton different from 10 for $300m if you think about tossing a couple $10m years on the end of such a huge deal and how little $10m might be in 2032. I'd be comfortable telling him the $340m Lindor and Tatis deals are not going to be comps, and letting him go at that point if he presses the point.  The Twins' roster is not awash with guys needing to make $15m or more so they can handle a $35m ticket without getting the vapors. 

[CRF]

I can't see the Yanks going after Correa, that's baloney. They're going after pitching, not a SS. It's the Giants, Cubs, and us...and I'm not real keen on our chances right now. It's pretty clear that the FO is completely focused on CC, or possibly Swanson, because they're not doing anything. Nothing will happen until we find out where those two guys go. 

[Cris E]

The top couple prospects in the Yankees' system are SS, so while Correa does fit their model for ultra-professional grown-ups (vs petulant disasters like Tatis) I think they have other ways to spend their money right now. 

[dxpavelka]

53 minutes ago, dberthia said:

Would just like this to end so we can put a stop to the incessant and voluminous speculation.

Speculation would just move on to the next item on the agenda.  Probably both pitching and catching help.

[DocBauer]

The Twins are being sincere in their efforts. Reading between tight lipped comments here and there, they've offered the 10yrs and are at or almost at $300M in their offer, while including opt outs.

I really hope this works, for many reasons. But the longer it drags out, the more I feel the Twins are being played for leverage and someone, probably the Giants, are just going to say "hell with it" and go $330 and the Twins are done.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, dberthia said:

Would just like this to end so we can put a stop to the incessant and voluminous speculation.

Winter must be agonizing for you.

Speculation is all we got during the hot stove season!

[dberthia]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Winter must be agonizing for you.

Speculation is all we got during the hot stove season!

Only the Correa speculation.

[jkcarew]

This will be well north of $300M.

Well north.

Love Correa as a player but this has every indication of landing WAY out there in ‘be careful what you wish for’ territory.

[solomon1930]

3 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

This will be well north of $300M.

Well north.

Love Correa as a player but this has every indication of landing WAY out there in ‘be careful what you wish for’ territory.

I wish for a pass.  Need pitching, a catcher and possibly a OF/DH.  

[terrydactyls]

The Twins have a 60% chance of signing Correa and the Giants have a 50% chance?  That math doesn't add up!

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

The Twins have a 60% chance of signing Correa and the Giants have a 50% chance?  That math doesn't add up!

Everybody knows you gotta give 110%.

[Doctor Evil]

The difference between Farmer and Correa value is not 300mil. Hard pass.

[Doc Munson]

I know this will sound like "sour grapes" and I do not expect anyone to take a discount "just because". BUT... you can't sit there and whine and say.. "It's just like walking into Dior, you know the price, you just have to pay it, if I want something I just go in and buy it"  or something like that. and then on the other hand go ahead and leverage different teams against each other to boost your price. Unless of course his price still just hasn't changed and hasn't been met.

Again my frustration isn't about him potentially getting the mx he can get, it is about the hypocrisy of the comments vs the actions.

 

Again the HUGE caveat of maybe his price truly just hasn't been met yet.  Anything close to what he is reported to POSSIBLY get, I would not pay.  Yes he can be a leader and a great teammate, and yes he is worth a lot, BUT at $400M you have to start thinking about replacement value.

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, Doc Munson said:

Again my frustration isn't about him potentially getting the mx he can get, it is about the hypocrisy of the comments vs the actions.

I said at the time he never should have answered (I think it was a reporter's question) with anything but a platitude like "I can't think about this now but I just hope it all works out after the season" or whatever.  It's why you hire an agent, to handle this kind of topic. Number 1 the agent should be more experienced at it, and number 2 any stink that comes from it attaches to the agent instead of to you.

[Monkeypaws]

It's all the more bizarre to me that they got Correa last season. Where were those big wallets when the Twins stepped in and snagged elite shortstop?

[Tiantwindup]

12 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The Twins have a 60% chance of signing Correa and the Giants have a 50% chance?  That math doesn't add up!

 

Yes it does:  the Yankees, also mentioned, are at -10%!

[Original_JB]

I see this one of two ways; I think the more likely option is that Boras is "playing nice" in claiming that the Twins are still 'in it' as the thankyou for the sweetheart deal we gave his client last year, while also driving up the price; the other is the Twins will sign him for very close to market rate, but not change their 'model' and will essentially need to run the Saints out there with Correa, driving half the fanbase into Mauer-like conniptions, or the finances will be somewhat tied to a new 10 year Bally's deal* (not on paper, but just to find the $$$).

*I don't know why that idea just won't leave me alone.

[SteveLV]

If Correa was not the poster child for the Astros' cheating he would never have played for the Twins.  He may end up re-signing with the Twins, likely for the same reasons.  Teams like the Dodgers simply are not going to infuriate their fan base by signing the guy, even if he would improve their team.  Yankees may feel the same way.

If he were "clean", he would have signed a mega-deal last offseason and we would not be in the discussion.

[Karbo]

Reports in the Pioneer Press say he may be concerned about going through a rebuild.

[themiddleman88]

One thing I think Cc needs from the twins is a promise the purse strings won’t shut because he signed a big deal. He knows what happened when the twins signed Mauer and then did nothing wasting Joe’s prime.  He won’t go down that road with with twins. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, themiddleman88 said:

One thing I think Cc needs from the twins is a promise the purse strings won’t shut because he signed a big deal. He knows what happened when the twins signed Mauer and then did nothing wasting Joe’s prime.  He won’t go down that road with with twins. 

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[terrydactyls]

15 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Reports in the Pioneer Press say he may be concerned about going through a rebuild.

If that is the case, here is my solution.  Immediately sign Chris Bassitt, Adam Duvall, Michael Fulmer, and Omar Narvaez.  Assuming the current Twins' payroll is about $95M, these signings would add about $37M (values taken from Spotrac) for a new payroll of $132M.  Offer Correa 13 years/$390M with player and team opt-outs after 7 and 10 years.  (By the way, with revenues and player salaries going up, $30M will seem like an average contract by year 7.)  This offer should satisfy the egos of both Scott Boris and Correa.  If Correa accepts the offer, payroll is at $162M.  If he still wants to negotiate, offer Dansby Swanson 12 years/$300.  Payroll drops to $157M.  If Swanson says no to that offer, Kyle Farmer is now the SS and payroll ends up at $132M.  These scenarios all get the Twins a catcher who hits left handed, a LF who hits right handed, a starting pitcher at least as good as Gray, bullpen help, and a SS (with different levels of ability depending on which scenario is implemented).

[Rigby]

12 hours ago, ashbury said:

I said at the time he never should have answered (I think it was a reporter's question) with anything but a platitude like "I can't think about this now but I just hope it all works out after the season" or whatever.  It's why you hire an agent, to handle this kind of topic. Number 1 the agent should be more experienced at it, and number 2 any stink that comes from it attaches to the agent instead of to you.

Boras...?

[D.C Twins]

Correa signed a one year deal so Boras would not have to share his commission on a 10 year deal with Correa's previous representation. It's that simple

Boras will take the most guaranteed money available and only be 'creative' if he absolutely has to. An opt out in a player's mid-30s benefits the team and not the player.... so with a Boras client.... highly unlikely 

[D.C Twins]

Boras leaked Yankees to drive up bids.

The Cubs are downplaying interest to suppress bidding war with SF. (Nobody is worried about outbidding the Twins if they are interested)

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Reports in the Pioneer Press say he may be concerned about going through a rebuild.

Then that leaves out the Cubs. They are in a far worse position than the Twins.