Has Luis Arraez Peaked?

[old nurse]

IfArraez may well be what he was last year for 5-10 years. People are saying that he may have peaked. That Lopez is at the same point in his career the same be true for him. If a team was going to overpay Miami for a pitcher I would go for Max Murphy

[jorgenswest]

39 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Not sure how they calculate those comparisons, but today you can win a batting title with a .315 average. Throughout most of baseball, that was a really good, but not great, hitter.

If you are interested you can look up Bill James similarity scores. For me it is fun to look at.

Arraez really stands out as unique. For any other Twin you find their list to be filled with many current players because the context of the era matters for similarity. I took a look through Twin batters last year that have played for at least a few seasons and I have seen nearly all of those guys of the similarity list play baseball.

Arraez is truly unique. Fun to watch and a fun list of similar players. I think his uniqueness will help him sustain a long career of success. This may be the peak but I expect a long plateau. 

[ashbury]

Not mentioned, I think, is Luis's inability to excel when facing left-handers. He's played enough by now to have a significant track record, consisting of 1) a .261 career BA, fairly empty at that except for the walks, and 2) being sat by the manager a lot when a lefty's pitching. His walk rate is actually a lot higher against lefties than righties, and his profile is almost like two entirely different people in one body.  He's really good in a platoon but is that a marker for the kind of player who'll keep a high profile?

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If you are interested you can look up Bill James similarity scores. For me it is fun to look at.

Arraez really stands out as unique. For any other Twin you find their list to be filled with many current players because the context of the era matters for similarity. I took a look through Twin batters last year that have played for at least a few seasons and I have seen nearly all of those guys of the similarity list play baseball.

Arraez is truly unique. Fun to watch and a fun list of similar players. I think his uniqueness will help him sustain a long career of success. This may be the peak but I expect a long plateau. 

Old-timey guys, and Tony Gwynn.  Interesting comps. (Though Tony hit lefties nearly as well as righties.)

[MTV]

I think Arraez peaked this year, but will still be good for the next few years. His hit tool strikeout/walk ratio will likely stick with him for a while. However, his defense is shaky, his main 3 positions (1B, 2B, DH) are filled by younger players with better defense, more control, and higher ceilings (Miranda, Kirilloff, Polanco), and his knees are weak from injuries. He will likely bat .300 and still be a tough out but won’t get much better. With players like Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee on their way up this seems like a good time to send him off. Trade him in a package to Miami for Pablo Lopez and Joey Wendle, Lopez gets you an Ace (who is harder to find/pay than Arraez) and Joey Wendle, the player most similar to Arraez (lefty utility infielder who hits for average, tough out) while Wendle can fill the hole at 3B and provide good defense on the left side of the infield, where the twins need more depth. This also allows Kirilloff and Miranda to hold down 1st more confidently and there not be a log jam at the position, and opens room for future prospects.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Not mentioned, I think, is Luis's inability to excel when facing left-handers. He's played enough by now to have a significant track record, consisting of 1) a .261 career BA, fairly empty at that except for the walks, and 2) being sat by the manager a lot when a lefty's pitching. His walk rate is actually a lot higher against lefties than righties, and his profile is almost like two entirely different people in one body.  He's really good in a platoon but is that a marker for the kind of player who'll keep a high profile?

Maybe not excel but a career .350 OBP is helpful.

As for significant track record I am not so sure. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats. On base percentage at 460 PAs. He only has 371 PAs against left handed pitching. He also is moving into what are typically his peak seasons. I am not as confident the gap between the two won’t get closer. In Tony Gwynn’s age 23-25 seasons the OPS split gap ranged from 102 to 192. It ended much closer.

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Maybe not excel but a career .350 OBP is helpful.

As for significant track record I am not so sure. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats. On base percentage at 460 PAs. He only has 371 PAs against left handed pitching. He also is moving into what are typically his peak seasons. I am not as confident the gap between the two won’t get closer. In Tony Gwynn’s age 23-25 seasons the OPS split gap ranged from 102 to 192. It ended much closer.

Fair counterpoints although I think the fairest guess for now is platoon player ultimately.  I think he's a smart player, as evidenced by the very different, walk-heavy, approach to facing lefties, but it's not enough as yet.

[Nine of twelve]

Haven't read the comments yet, but the answer is no, of course not. Moreover, I don't like the title of this thread. At age 25? Really?? Ted, can't you be rational?

[darin617]

How will the ban of shifts affect Arraez? They always said you can shift all you want and he will find a hole.

I don't like the idea of banning defensive shifts. These are supposed to be professional athletes and I feel they are either being lazy or stubborn not working in BP to breaking the shift.

[Linus]

I love watching Arreaz hit but he literally is a one trick pony   He does that one thing very well but really has no other tools. His peak value is right now not because he won’t continue to be a good player but is likely to remain really good at one thing while getting more expensive every year. Trade sometimes is as much about how much the player is making as performance. I would not advocate trading him for an average pitcher but if you can add another prospect and get a potential #1 starter you have to do it. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I want a package of Kepler and Polanco for the pitcher we need and move Luis to 2B and move on.  

Team BA - 248 - Arraez - 316

Those who were above the team average - 

• Urshela - gone
• MIranda
• Correa - Free Agent
• Nick Gordon - position unknown
• Kiriloff and Lewis in short samples

Take off the Free agent and traded player - then remove Arraez and what is the team BA?

Farmer at SS is essentially a wash with Urshella offensively. Miranda @ 3rd. Gordon in LF for every right handed starter & spelling Buxton as needed for 40-50 starts in CF.

Arraez at 1st until Kirilof is ready to play regularly……..after that, he plays 2B for 30 games - 3B for 15 games - 1B for 60 games - DH for 40 games. That amount of time at DH & 1B should help his knees.

In parts of only 2 other MLB seasons Luis Arraez hit .311 & .313…….. .316 this year. Don’t see any reasonable expectation of him “dropping off” at the entry to the prime of his career!!!

Polanco & Kepler have one more year with an opportunity as TWINS.

14 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I want a package of Kepler and Polanco for the pitcher we need and move Luis to 2B and move on.  

Team BA - 248 - Arraez - 316

Those who were above the team average - 

• Urshela - gone
• MIranda
• Correa - Free Agent
• Nick Gordon - position unknown
• Kiriloff and Lewis in short samples

Take off the Free agent and traded player - then remove Arraez and what is the team BA?

I agree with you on Louis:

Opening more opportunity for Buxton to DH @ .228 average by moving Arraez to another club with a .316 average isn’t real smart in my opinion.

Kepler makes too much money and has performed too poorly for 3 years to get any positive value in trade. Learn to love his defensive add, reduce expectations for power, and hope the shift elimination gets him an extra 4 hits/month and helps raise his confidence to drive the ball.

Polanco may be a deadline trade piece with his ability to hit with pop and being a reasonable defender that’s a switch hitter. Sounds like a guy we would want if he was healthy!! If he gets back to career averages he’s a real plus.

Trade deadline opportunity to move Polanco for a right handed hitting outfielder OR pitching, comes with Lewis being healthy enough to play there regularly or some other farm system kid earning an opportunity. Doubt we move him in the middle of a successful TEAM season if he’s anywhere near his average performance level.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, darin617 said:

How will the ban of shifts affect Arraez? They always said you can shift all you want and he will find a hole.

I don't like the idea of banning defensive shifts. These are supposed to be professional athletes and I feel they are either being lazy or stubborn not working in BP to breaking the shift.

Louis doesn’t struggle with the shift - he is the epitome of a professional hitter. Since they didn’t shift against him in the past, the Ban will have essentially no effect on Arraez stats.

[Rosterman]

No, but you have to find a comfortable position for him to play.

He doesn't seem to be a guy that just wants to hit. He plays better, or so I notice, when he is in the game on the field.

His strength is working the count, which makes him a wonderful lead-off hitter. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the base running skills to take that extra base via steal or put pressure on the pitcher, so you run the double-play risk if he bats leadoff and gets on. 

If he bats second, he stands a good chance of advancing the runner in every at bat, assuming the runner has better bse-running skills that Arraez. I would put Polanco, Buxton, Correa, maybe Lewis, even Kepler in that position. But Kepler needs to start hitting.

But then again, Arraez has a wasted at bat if the leadoff hitter gets out, and you don't have a really strong #3 in the order.

You gotta bat him early because of his eye-at-the-plate, and his OBP. You want him to get that fifth at bat each and every game.

Has he reached his peak? No. Would I sign him long-term? Also, No. partly because he is a man without a...position.

 

[Karbo]

IMO they have to listen to all trade offers for pretty much anyone on the team. The only real question for me is getting max value out of a guy like Arraez.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I really enjoy Arraez as a hitter and an exciting player. I enjoy his positive interviews. However if we could get a young catcher who can hit some and play good defense, with a strong arm and call a great game, then trade Arraez for the catcher now. Catching is the Twins current weakest position on the major league team and the current  weakest position among the Twins' prospects. Trade Arraez for a catcher and then draft some catchers.

[miracleb]

20 hours ago, old nurse said:

IfArraez may well be what he was last year for 5-10 years. People are saying that he may have peaked. That Lopez is at the same point in his career the same be true for him. If a team was going to overpay Miami for a pitcher I would go for Max Murphy

I think you meant Max Meyer....and the Marlins aren't doing that......

 

[dxpavelka]

On 12/10/2022 at 10:18 AM, gman said:

One other thought. I have heard in the rule changes for next year that the ball will be larger. Who would that benefit more that Arraez having more ball surface to smack around?

You heard wrong.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

I think you meant Max Meyer....and the Marlins aren't doing that......

 

Nearly all the trades proposed are not going to get done. Miami would be more likely to trade Lopez and prospects for a better RBI bat than Arraez and prospects. On the interesting side, Lopez is why you trade for low level prospects when your team is not doing well. He was part of a package for a reliever having a decent season.    I really don’t think the Twins will trade Arraez unless they get a very good package back. He is available for a good price. If they intended on moving him for any other reason they would have kept Urshela

[Trov]

I think Arraez has not peaked, and could get better.  He even could get more power, without hurting his approach of getting on base.  First, it is selective power, meaning based on count, based on situation, pitcher, and situation in game, you can look to swing for more power, but go to normal approach when swinging harder is not needed or really get you much.  For example, runner on 3rd less than 2 outs late in game and tied, making sure you get ball in play to drive in run is important.

However, if runner is on first, 2 outs down 1 or 2 runs, trying to hit a HR or extra base hit is more important, and risking a strikeout is not a big deal.