Has Luis Arraez Peaked?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

For now, Luis Arraez is a Minnesota Twin, but coming off his best season to date—one in which he won the American League batting title for the first time—the Venezuelan’s name has become a hot commodity in the trade market. That begs the question: Should the Twins trade Arraez? And THAT begs the question: Has Arraez already peaked?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski

 

Okay, so maybe the premise of this story as portrayed above is a little click-baity and very off-seasony, but, at the very least, it’s worth considering, particularly as the rumor mill churns. 

Arraez’s exploits during the 2022 season are well-known among Twins fans. He won the team’s first A.L. batting title since Joe Mauer in 2009 and was named to his first All-Star team. He was also third on the team in fWAR trailing only Carlos Correa (4.4) and Byron Buxton (4.0), the two bona fide franchise cornerstone level players on the roster.

If you look up “Contact Hitter” in your nearest Merriam-Webster or dictionary of choice, the definition you’ll find is “Luis Arraez.” The Twins atypical first baseman/DH ranked in the 100th percentile in K% and Whiff% last summer according to Baseball Savant. For the analytically disinclined, essentially, Arraez is the corporeal form of “see ball, hit ball.”

But what Arraez is *not* is “see ball, hit ball hard and far.”  He ranked in the 7th percentile in HardHit%, 11th in barrel rate, and 48th in average exit velocity in 2022. Add in his height (5’10” according to Baseball Savant, which is…kind…at best) and Outs Above Average (15th percentile) and Arraez’s fit at first base long term should come into question. 

That, of course, isn’t a new discussion. When Arraez was first moved to first base out of necessity due to the calamity of injuries the team suffered all that was talked about was how weird it was to see him playing there and that it wasn’t likely his long term home. The issue, though, is that this conversation was happening *after* he had been ruled out as a second baseman (Polanco is the stronger option at the position and Arraez’s knees struggled to handle the load during his first three seasons), third baseman (*remembers that one series in Oakland*), or outfielder (WOOF). 

In all reality, the Twins’ only option to keep Arraez’s bat in the lineup everyday was to either place him at first base or DH, which ultimately accounted for nearly 75% of his plate appearances. Despite his ability to rack up hits, Arraez graded out as a merely above average first baseman and a top-tier DH in many important statistical categories. Below is how he ranked among qualified position players—both A.L. and N.L.—last season. 

I can hear many of you saying, “Uh, isn’t being 'merely above average and top tier' a good thing?” and, rest assured, it is! But here’s the crux of my argument: There’s a good chance that Luis Arraez’s 2022 campaign was the embodiment of the peak of his powers.

Arraez is young and possesses elite bat to ball skills. He will likely grade out as an above average hitter for the bulk of his career. But his ceiling can only be so high as long as he’s chained to either first base defensively or DH and/or not winning batting titles. Any negative deviation from his 2022 output and Arraez will likely only grade out as average offensively at either position.

For instance, here is how Arraez ranked among the positions listed above during 2021, a merely good season by his standards. 

Oofda. (While Arraez's DH numbers look alright, it should be noted that only 12 players qualified as full-time DHs in 2021 compared to 16 in 2022, according to FanGraphs.) 

One potential mitigation strategy Arraez could employ is trying to hit for more power. As shown in the charts above, his ISO falls well below average among qualified players at all four positions over the last two seasons. More home runs would not only lead to a better ISO but also to greater statistical values across the board, except for batting average, in all likelihood. (This can be seen in how much better Arraez graded out in 2022 compared to 2021. His jump from six career dingers to eight in one season was *the* reason why he was so valuable last summer.)

But hitting for more power—which would be an even greater increase than the increase he showed in 2022 (his 8 dingers brought him to 14 for his career)—would require a massive overhaul of Arraez’s approach at the plate, which isn’t impossible but highly unlikely.

As such, now may be the perfect time for the Twins to move the fan favorite, especially to a team like the Miami Marlins. Swapping him for higher-end starting pitching would not only bolster the Twins already deep, but low throttle starting rotation but also free up more space at DH for the likes of Buxton and first base for Alex Kirilloff. The big winner of an Arraez trade could be Royce Lewis—who may need a graded return following his second ACL reconstruction—or Edouard Julien—who may very well just be a French Canadian clone of Arraez with more pop.

Of course, holding onto Arraez is an entirely defensible position as well. But if there were ever a time to trade a reigning batting champ, now may just be the time for the Twins. At the very least, I’m sure Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are thinking real hard about whether or not doing so would be prudent.   

 

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[CRF]

Arraez is 25 and just won a batting title. If that's as good as he's gonna get, that's still pretty damn good. I think his power numbers will probably improve over time. He's shown he can turn on an inside fastball and give it a ride at times. Remember, Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn were considered "contact hitters" too, and they turned out pretty well. 

[old nurse]

Arraez may well be what he was last year for 5-10 years. That Lopez had a career year last year also begs the question is that a peak for him?  My bet would be Arraez over Lopez 

[mikelink45]

I want a package of Kepler and Polanco for the pitcher we need and move Luis to 2B and move on.  

Team BA - 248 - Arraez - 316

Those who were above the team average - 

• Urshela - gone
• MIranda
• Correa - Free Agent
• Nick Gordon - position unknown
• Kiriloff and Lewis in short samples

Take off the Free agent and traded player - then remove Arraez and what is the team BA?

[Nashvilletwin]

I’m all for advanced stats.  But my eye test tells me when we had runners on or runners on in scoring position last season, Luis was by far the Twin we wanted at the plate. He was also the Twin most opposing pitchers did not want to see at the plate in those situations. Luis is a tough out and by far the toughest out - especially when it matters - on a team chock full of easy outs.

We want Lopez? A one year guy (albeit a really good one year) with rotator cuff history? Offer the Marlins Kepler and Polanco. I know they wouldn’t take either, or even both, of those declining names. But don’t trade the one guy on the team who makes the opposing pitchers work the hardest and consistently produces at the plate when it most matters.

[Heiny]

I totally agree with CRF,  but,  you need to look at what would make the Twins a better team.  Arraez with our young pitchers?  Or Lopez with our young hitters.  I tend to believe  that It will be easier to replace Arraez's production and a top tier starter would be more valuable to the team at this point.  I think a fair trade for Lopez would be Arraez and Kepler and we may have to throw in another low level lottery ticket.  What's that old saying?  "You can never have enouph pitching."

[awmonahan]

What went unmentioned is that playing 1B and DH likely kept his knees in shape and allowed him to hit that way. That appears to be known around this team but may be something others are willing to explore still (which keeps his value high now). Failed experiments around the diamond this year could really crater his value. 

[Mark G]

I always get a kick out of folks saying Arraez doesn't have a home; what do we do with him?  In the last two years I can think (off the top of my head) of what? 5 players maybe? who only played one position through the entire year.  Correct me here if I missed someone, but Simmons, Donaldson, Correa, ,Urshela and Buck.  I didn't take into account catchers because we DH them at times as they platoon.  Who on this team does have a "home" that they play 130-140+ games a year at other than those few?  An above average hitter who at least has some experience at multiple positions and has multiple years of control left is the odd man out?  On this team?   Falvine and co. may very well be thinking about it, but unless we have a surplus of just that kind of player, they better be thinking twice.  

[Beast]

I think it’s fairly likely he’s peaked.

I don’t think the guy will be able to stay healthy, unfortunately.  It’s already an issue.

Its possible he finds a way to hit for more power and keep his knees/legs healthy.  I certainly hope so.  

[Doctor Gast]

IDK if Arraez has peaked or not. I think he could have done much better if he was rested regularly the 2nd half. The reason for trading Arraez isn't wether he has peaked or not, it's because of #1 his trade value. Arraez trade value peaked 2 yrs ago and has steadily fallen since. His trade value has jumped some due to positive hype, his trade value right now will never be this high again. #2 Arraez is a one dimensional player which can be easily replaced by a multi-tool player. #3 We have deeper needs that need to be filled, He could be better utilized as trade bait to help fill those needs.

Arraez has many good years a head of him, if managed correctly I see him winning a few more batting titles. And I wouldn't trade him for just anyone but if there's a good deal, then yeah.

[Riverbrian]

49 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I totally agree with CRF,  but,  you need to look at what would make the Twins a better team.  Arraez with our young pitchers?  Or Lopez with our young hitters.  I tend to believe  that It will be easier to replace Arraez's production and a top tier starter would be more valuable to the team at this point.  I think a fair trade for Lopez would be Arraez and Kepler and we may have to throw in another low level lottery ticket.  What's that old saying?  "You can never have enouph pitching."

Good Post. I think you hit on the crux of the discussion. What needs the immediate attention? The Young Pitching or the Young Hitting. 

The young hitting worries me more. The young pitching worries you more. The answer must be both. ?

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I want a package of Kepler and Polanco for the pitcher we need and move Luis to 2B and move on.  

Team BA - 248 - Arraez - 316

Those who were above the team average - 

• Urshela - gone
• MIranda
• Correa - Free Agent
• Nick Gordon - position unknown
• Kiriloff and Lewis in short samples

Take off the Free agent and traded player - then remove Arraez and what is the team BA?

Exactly.  You nailed it. The goal is to win a lot of 1-0 games?  With a five inning starter and our pen? Yeah, trade Luis and lose all our better hitters - let’s see how many fans want to watch that. 

I watched nearly every Twins game last season - right up to the end.  The two hitters I made sure to watch each at bat were BB and LA.  For me, that was must see TV.

Right now the three most popular Twins are Buxton, Correa and Arraez. Twins strategy to put butts in the seats? Play one for 50 games, lose another to free agency, and trade the third for a pitcher who throws 5-6 innings a game every 5 games.  

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Arraez may well be what he was last year for 5-10 years. That Lopez had a career year last year also begs the question is that a peak for him?  My bet would be Arraez over Lopez 

And I absolutely agree with you. If anything the changes in the defensive positioning will help a guy like Arraez. With his bat control he will keep poking the ball through holes. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The way the article introduces its premise totally makes sense until:
The issue, though, is that this conversation was happening *after* he had been ruled out as a second baseman

I do recall questions about how many innings Arráez could handle at 2B, but after he began to get starts at 1B regularly, he continued to start at second as well:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arraelu01&t=f&year=2022

If they no longer see Arráez as able to be a full-time second baseman, which seems possible, that's a different thing. I don't think that's necessarily a problem.

It certainly seems like the Twins have tried to move toward keeping more players playing multiple positions and, with that, more lineup flexibility a la the Dodgers and Rays. If they can keep Arráez as a flexible 1B/2B, that can be useful for that kind of plan, even if he's not playing the most defensively valuable positions. The team could choose matchups based on handedness or on whether an opposing pitcher was more vulnerable to power hitting or a contact/OBP approach. Maybe in a year Lee or Lewis is getting starts at 3B and Miranda rotates back in at 1B. There are ways to see it working.

I still would understand an Arráez trade if it brought back a better pitcher than they could acquire by other means—he wouldn't return that pitcher 1-for-1, but could be the headlining player in a deal. I'm not convinced that going for Pablo López would be aiming high enough to justify Arráez as a trade asset.

 

[Whitey333]

Interesting article.  Perhaps since you have all the answers, you should be the GM.  But this current FO is failing.  Even before the team folded in September with all the injuries, the play very boring and undisciplined baseball.  The team has no identity and no plan.  If they do posses a plan they are keeping it to themselves and not generating much excitement so far.  They left the winter meetings having acquired no one of significance.  This is not really unexpected since they've done it for years.  In the end the Twins may sign some cheap retreads and then try to tell the fans they tried hard.  Same old same old.  I'm not talking about Correa.  Spending that much money on one player with so many holes in the team is simply foolhearty.  While other teams take names off the board the twins as usual sit and moan about how much money the free agents are getting.  Let's move on from Correa, add some relief pitching, a starter or two, a catcher etc.  The central is there for the taking.  

[gman]

Not only was Arraez the best hitter on the team, but the best hitter with runners in scoring position.

Arraez   366/441/862     42% of runners scored

Buxton   145/280/635    34% of runners scored

Correa  277/364/730      28% of runners scored

If the objective is to sore runs, which is part of baseball, I think we keep Arreaz and let him hit third.

I also think Arreaz will win several more batting titles and I wouldn't be surprised to have several season in the 360's. Too many fans think that the end all is to swing hard, strike out and occasionally hit a homerun, they really have no idea how hitting and run scoring is put together.

[Riverbrian]

I'll reserve judgement until the end of the off-season. 

However. Let's say they trade Arraez for Lopez. 

If a trade of Arraez for Lopez happens... Nick Gordon will become the highest returning 2022 batting average on the current roster. 

You would have to have incredible confidence in Larnach and Kirilloff doing something they haven't yet to be comfortable with that. 

 

[tony&rodney]

To the point -  every player can be traded for a return that improves the team and Arraez has not peaked.

[roger]

To answer your question, Has Luis Arraez peaked?  No.  Should Arraez be traded, hell no!

Like someone mentioned above, I watched most of last year's games.  And the highlight of most was waiting for his next at bat.  Loved all those 7-8-10 pitch at bats regardless of the result. 

Trade him and I don't know what I will be looking forward to in next year's games.  Probably nothing.  And that leads to taking a nap or reading a book, or even joining the wife doing a puzzle.  But it doesn't lead to watching more Twins games.

Heck, I have even gotten to the point where I could understand their trading Polo or Keps.  But trading Arraez, no, no, no.

[jorgenswest]

Great question. Has he peaked? That sent me to Baseball Reference to look at similarity scores to find he has time traveled from another era.

Most similar through age 25?

1) Fred Tenney. Who? He started his career in 1894. 
2) Jo Jo Moore. I have heard of thanks to playing APBA with a 1938 card set as a kid. 
3) Roger Bresnahan. Hall of Famer overlapped Tenney’s career. 
4) Ethan Allen. 1930s.  
5) Arnold Statz. Who? I played his 27 APBA Season. No recall of him.  
6) Sam West. See Jo Jo Moore and Ethan Allen.

My hope was to look at this list of similar player through 25 and see what the rest of their careers looked like. The good news is that totter than Statz they maintained their skills wellI to their 30s. I hoped to see an increase in power but I didn’t. Not sure this means much since they played centered around 100 years ago. The next guy I have seen in person.

7) Tony Gwynn.  

and then back in time to guy who started his career in 1872

8) Jim O’Rourke. Hall of Fame. 
9) Gene Robertson. See Arnold Statz.

and former Twin I have seen play

10) Rich Rollins. Huh? No Rodney? Rollins is the only player on this list still living. I think he took a ball to the head around 25 and I wonder if that altered his career.

Three Hall of Famers. Three that peaked around age 25. Four others with very long successful careers. Not sure it means anything. I think I would bet on him having a long successful career doing what he does best. Get on base.

 

[Linus]

It’s Uufda.  This type of mistake could result in a Viking rage. 

[gman]

One other thought. I have heard in the rule changes for next year that the ball will be larger. Who would that benefit more that Arraez having more ball surface to smack around?

[Riverbrian]

From a talent standpoint. He's 25.7 years old. He should put up decent number for a while. 

From a value standpoint. Yeah... He has most likely peaked. He is in his first year of Arbitration. 

Next year he gets a pay bump and one less year of team control. The Following year he gets a pay bump and one last year of team control. Both the increase in pay and loss of time will start the value slide downward. 

We would probably never get a higher trade value for him than right now. With that said I am still quietly hoping that the front office takes a different route. 

[Muppet]

The twins should trade him. They don’t deserve him. Year after year we complain that he isn’t good enough. He’s the best hitter on the team and gets better every year. Won a batting title. Not good enough. Just trade him for 2 years of an average hitter with average defense. Or a pitcher who will have an era of .425 before he blows out his shoulder. Arraez will peak in 6 years when he’s on the dodgers and reliably hits 20+ hrs per year. Arraez might be the only twin that ends up in the HOF. 

[dxpavelka]

21 minutes ago, Muppet said:

The twins should trade him. They don’t deserve him. Year after year we complain that he isn’t good enough. He’s the best hitter on the team and gets better every year. Won a batting title. Not good enough. Just trade him for 2 years of an average hitter with average defense. Or a pitcher who will have an era of .425 before he blows out his shoulder. Arraez will peak in 6 years when he’s on the dodgers and reliably hits 20+ hrs per year. Arraez might be the only twin that ends up in the HOF. 

Highly doubt he peaks at 20 plus home runs.  MAYBE 10.  Yes, he's a very good hitter and won a batting title.  He won a batting title with an OPS under .800.  That's hard to do.  Hell, D.J. LaMahieu won the batting title two years ago, hit only 10 home runs and had an OPS over 1.000.  He hits for average.  He does that very well.  Little power and average defense at multiple positions.  I might be a dinosaur in that I still respect batting average as a stat but he's also no Rod Carew or Tony Gwynn.  If you can  get high end pitching for him, ya gotta consider it.

[SwainZag]

53 minutes ago, gman said:

One other thought. I have heard in the rule changes for next year that the ball will be larger. Who would that benefit more that Arraez having more ball surface to smack around?

The bases will be bigger.  I've heard nothing about changing of the ball size. 

[RJA]

Great article for discussion.  I agree with Mikelink45, I am not quite sure how getting rid of your top hitters from a BA/OBP point of view from last year--assuming Correa does not sign--is going to help this team.  While the pitching caused issues last year, this team also had a terrible time being consistent at the plate, giving away far too many at bats by chasing out of the zone and trying to hit homeruns.  Now if Correa leaves, and with Urshela gone, and you trade Arraez for two years of Lopez, I fear the number of games where we fail to generate any offense and lose 3-1 or 4-2 will be even greater.  On the other hand,  if Correa stays at 35M a year, will they stretch the budget next year to keep Mahle, Gray, and Maeda, or their replacements, all of whom will be looking for big deals based on this year's signings?  It will be interesting to see how the FO navigates the next two years.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Do I think he has peaked?  Yes from a health-perspective.  No from a performance-perspective.  If he can stay healthy, then he is gold.  If he cannot, then he has little value.

The underlying reason you trade him now is his overall value is high and you feel he will degrade health-wise in the near future.  The reason you do not trade him is you feel he will be healthy for years and continue to maintain his performance on the ball field.

Time for that new team doctor/trainer to review Luis's medicals and provide the FO with the answer so that they can make the correct call.

[EGFTShaw]

At least you admitted it was a bit Click-baity ?? but I’ve seen worse

1) you always listen to trade offers. 
2) to think he peaked with his history is FOMO and negative thinking without any indicators
3) Instead the thought process should how many batting titles can he win 
4) how do we insure he maximizes his potential at the plate & in the field 

I understand where you are coming from in your thought process & due diligence, but it to even give this a moment of thought without any indicators is silly.  His history has Venn hit, hit, hit through the minors and now at the Show  

this question would have been more appropriate after Keplers 35HR year as it was an outlier  

this past year was not an outlier for Luis Arraez - 2022 AL Batting Champion 

Note: would Judge’s contract gone for more than $360M if he had won the triple crown?

 

[Muppet]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Great question. Has he peaked? That sent me to Baseball Reference to look at similarity scores to find he has time traveled from another era.

Most similar through age 25?

1) Fred Tenney. Who? He started his career in 1894. 
2) Jo Jo Moore. I have heard of thanks to playing APBA with a 1938 card set as a kid. 
3) Roger Bresnahan. Hall of Famer overlapped Tenney’s career. 
4) Ethan Allen. 1930s.  
5) Arnold Statz. Who? I played his 27 APBA Season. No recall of him.  
6) Sam West. See Jo Jo Moore and Ethan Allen.

My hope was to look at this list of similar player through 25 and see what the rest of their careers looked like. The good news is that totter than Statz they maintained their skills wellI to their 30s. I hoped to see an increase in power but I didn’t. Not sure this means much since they played centered around 100 years ago. The next guy I have seen in person.

7) Tony Gwynn.  

and then back in time to guy who started his career in 1872

8) Jim O’Rourke. Hall of Fame. 
9) Gene Robertson. See Arnold Statz.

and former Twin I have seen play

10) Rich Rollins. Huh? No Rodney? Rollins is the only player on this list still living. I think he took a ball to the head around 25 and I wonder if that altered his career.

Three Hall of Famers. Three that peaked around age 25. Four others with very long successful careers. Not sure it means anything. I think I would bet on him having a long successful career doing what he does best. Get on base.

 

Not sure how they calculate those comparisons, but today you can win a batting title with a .315 average. Throughout most of baseball, that was a really good, but not great, hitter.