Five Pitchers for the Twins #5 Pick in the 2023 MLB Draft

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins now have the number 5 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Which pitching prospects might they target with the pick? Here's a look at five names to know.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

While the Minnesota Twins offseason has been slow and laborious, the organization was granted a boon on Tuesday night, jumping eight spots in the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, snagging the number five overall pick in the process. The pick offers the Twins a huge opportunity to add a top-100 caliber prospect with their first pick. With that in mind, who are names to know?

An oft-injured Jacob DeGrom netted a staggering 5-year, $185 million contract this season. Why is this relevant to the Twins draft? Contracts like this make it extremely unlikely that Minnesota will be players in elite starting pitching free agency. The Twins have leaned heavily into college bats since the Derek Falvey era began, is it time to buck that trend?

Here are some pitching prospects to know ahead of prep/college baseball season (in no particular order). These names are extremely preliminary. This list will change significantly as the season unfolds, but it’s never too early to start draft prep!

Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
At the time of writing, Chase Dollander is a consensus top two prospect in the 2023 draft. So, why include his name on the list? The MLB Draft is ALWAYS full of surprises (remember Kumar Rocker)? 

Dollander is an ace in the making. The 6’3 righty struck out 108 batters in just 79 inning of work in 2022. His fastball sits at 95mph but is routinely humped up to 99mph. Dollander has a slider, curveball, and changeup combination for secondary offerings, in addition to excellent control (13 walks in 2022). If he has a good 2023 season, he’s a candidate to go first overall.

Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
Lowder has a flow that rivals Mike Clevinger’s and more importantly, had an outstanding sophomore season at Wake. Lowder struck out 105 batters in 99 innings of work. Lowder has good control, walking 26 in 2022. His arsenal consists of a low-mid 90s fastball and a filthy changeup that is already a plus pitch. Lowder made a massive leap between his freshman and sophomore seasons and is a name to watch in 2023.

Paul Skenes, RHP/DH, LSU
Skenes is a two way player who transferred to LSU after his sophomore season and will spend 2023 under the tutelage of Wes Johnson. Skenes is a unit at 6’6, 235lbs and has a profile the Twins would find appealing as a pitcher. His fastball sits in the mid 90s but he can crank it up to 98mph, also boasting high spin rates. Skenes has a split change with late tumble and a sharp slider as secondary offerings. Oh, and he clubbed 13 home runs in 2022 for Air Force.

Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Waldrep has one of the most electric arms in the 2023 draft class. Initially used as a reliever in his freshman season at Florida, he transitioned to a full time starter role in 2022. In 90 innings of work he struck out 140 batters (not a typo) and walked 33. Waldrep has a fastball he cranks up to 98mph in addition to a sharp slider that posted a 53% whiff rate in 2022. Waldrep is the epitome of a dominant power pitcher. If he can avoid reliever risk, he can be one of the first pitchers off the board.

Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS
Meyer has the type of profile that will rocket up draft boards with a strong spring. At 18 years old, 6’5, and 195 lbs, he still has a ton of projectability left and has already moved from a fringy first round prospect to an established middle to front end prospect. Meyer’s fastball already sits 96-98 mph. Additionally, he has a power slider that sits mid-upper 80s with vicious break. Meyer has a solid, repeatable motion and with a strong spring, is the likely favorite to be the top prep arm taken in the draft.

Which of these names appeals to you? What prospects are you most excited about ahead of the 2023 draft?

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Waldrep's strikeout numbers are impressive. But each of these pitchers has another season to pitch before the draft. I do hope the Twins chose to draft a durable, top pitching prospect with the number 5 pick. 

[Whitey333]

Nice, very informative article.  I don't know about which I would choose but I hope for once this FO chooses a pitcher, that can have a positive impact sooner than later.

[Trov]

Personally I try to shy away from HS arms high in draft.  They are so hard to really project. Yes, some become some of the best, but some fully flop too, they are the biggest high risk high reward kind of guys.  Not that college pitchers are locks either though, but they tend to be ale to fly through minors faster and contribute faster too.  

[Dman]

I do like Dollander best as I think he is a fast mover and the Twins need dominant pitching the thing is he seems unlikely to make it to number 5 with pitching needy Pittsburgh and Washington looking for ace level arms.  The High School kid seems "Petty like" with better size and likely less reliever risk.  He could fall to the Twins but there are some special bats at the top of this draft so there will be tough decisions to be made.

Due to TINSTAPP There is not such thing as a pitching prospect) I see the Twins likely taking the safe route with a bat.  They should be able to get a really good up the middle star type player (SS, CF) with less risk than banking on an arm holding up all the way to the Majors.  Having said that the Twins are in desperate need of difference making arms and if they feel really good about a couple of these pitchers given the state of the farm now would be the time to take that kind of risk.

I guess we will know more about what they decide to do after the draft but from what I can see they have excellent options picking at number 5 pretty much no matter how the board falls.  IMO the top 9 to 10 of this draft looks pretty good and then starts to fall off a little.  Twins just need to choose wisely in their spot.  Even at 34 they should be able to get a very good player they just need to pick well and I feel like they need to replenish the pitching pipeline so would like to see more pitchers than position players selected this coming draft. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If the Twins are not willing to pay top dollar for an ace FA pitcher, then the draft is the next best way to finally get an ace FA pitcher is to draft pitchers early and frequently, hire the best pitching development coaches and advisors and pay them well, and develop many pitchers, with the hope that one will make an ace in 3 -4 years. 

[jmlease1]

So hard to know who the right guy is going to be, but there's no question the Twins will have some good options at #5. That high up in the draft, I'd prefer to avoid drafting a HS pitcher unless there's just so much more talent there than any other available option. So many things can go wrong there and I'd rather dodge a little risk with such a high pick when other options are likely to be on the table.

But generally, I think with a top 5 pick you take the best player available and figure it out later. I don't know who that's going to be, but I'm excited that the Twins get to find out!

[RJA]

I love that we are talking draft in December--that is what getting the number 5 pick can do to ramp up enthusiasm.  There is a whole lot more baseball to be played before we get really serious about our pick, but I confess I am interested to see what Wes Johnson can do with Skenes.  Absent injury, Dollander will be gone for sure, and I don't think they would use a 5 pick on a high school pitcher, or maybe on any pitcher for that matter given the bats that will be on the board, but if one of the other 3 really improves this year they might become attractive.  Actually, if Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and the other young pitchers are struggling by July, who knows what they might do?  Dman hit the nail on the head, however, as they are in a great position in a draft with up to 10 quality choices, maybe more as other players develop this year.  They should get a top notch talent.

[Tiantwindup]

It’s seems that the Twins drafting  philosophy is that there is less risk drafting a bat vs an arm when the pick is at the top of the draft.  In the ten drafts from 2008-2017, the twins drafted  9 pitchers in the first round and only two—Berrios and Gibson—have had success as staring pitchers. And the two highest picks, Stewart and Jay, were big busts.  On the hitting side, there were 8 first rounders and 3 of them, Buxton, Hicks, and Gordon, have been solid contributors. In addition, both Lewis and Kiriloff still have a good chance to be solid and arguably would already be if not for injury. This may be a small sample size but I think it is instructive. 

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

I can't wait to see what pitcher we take with the 5th overall pick who will, inevitably, come out of the bullpen for the Twins to pitch the 7th inning in 2025.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I do like Dollander best as I think he is a fast mover and the Twins need dominant pitching the thing is he seems unlikely to make it to number 5 with pitching needy Pittsburgh and Washington looking for ace level arms.  The High School kid seems "Petty like" with better size and likely less reliever risk.  He could fall to the Twins but there are some special bats at the top of this draft so there will be tough decisions to be made.

Due to TINSTAPP There is not such thing as a pitching prospect) I see the Twins likely taking the safe route with a bat.  They should be able to get a really good up the middle star type player (SS, CF) with less risk than banking on an arm holding up all the way to the Majors.  Having said that the Twins are in desperate need of difference making arms and if they feel really good about a couple of these pitchers given the state of the farm now would be the time to take that kind of risk.

I guess we will know more about what they decide to do after the draft but from what I can see they have excellent options picking at number 5 pretty much no matter how the board falls.  IMO the top 9 to 10 of this draft looks pretty good and then starts to fall off a little.  Twins just need to choose wisely in their spot.  Even at 34 they should be able to get a very good player they just need to pick well and I feel like they need to replenish the pitching pipeline so would like to see more pitchers than position players selected this coming draft. 

I keep reading hitters are safer. Which player was in the majors, healthy, last year, Lewis or Greene?

The Twins can't afford to sign an elite pitcher, and no one trades them..... Draft one. 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

I can't wait to see what pitcher we take with the 5th overall pick who will, inevitably, come out of the bullpen for the Twins to pitch the 7th inning in 2025.  

If he's in the majors less than two years from being drafted, that would be amazing.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

So hard to know who the right guy is going to be,

This is the year I hope our vaunted analytics staff impresses us by picking at #5 the one pitcher out of those available who proves to be the durable arm that we need at the top of the rotation. Like, um... (checking baseball-reference.com)... Dwight Gooden or Jack McDowell from the 1980s.  Oh lord, teams don't go for the big arms at #5 anymore, or at least they don't succeed at that strategy, do they? Maybe we get a Mark Teixeira or Buster Posey.

[Dman]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I keep reading hitters are safer. Which player was in the majors, healthy, last year, Lewis or Greene?

The Twins can't afford to sign an elite pitcher, and no one trades them..... Draft one. 

Well the Twins have missed on a fair number of hitters in the first round. Sabato, Rooker and Cavaco come to mind as some of their worst picks.  I don't know why this FO doesn't like to take pitchers early but from what has been discussed on this board they seem to feel they can find workable arms in the later rounds but feel it is harder to find\develop bats from the later rounds.  Since 2017 they have only taken one pitcher in the first round and that was Petty whom they promptly traded.

I don't know what the stats are on pitchers taken in the top 5 versus hitters but given how analytically driven this FO is there must be some reason they prefer hitters versus pitchers in the 1st round.

[DocBauer]

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. 

I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft.

Always pick the very best player available. Period.

But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

Well the Twins have missed on a fair number of hitters in the first round. Sabato, Rooker and Cavaco come to mind as some of their worst picks.  I don't know why this FO doesn't like to take pitchers early but from what has been discussed on this board they seem to feel they can find workable arms in the later rounds but feel it is harder to find\develop bats from the later rounds.  Since 2017 they have only taken one pitcher in the first round and that was Petty whom they promptly traded.

I don't know what the stats are on pitchers taken in the top 5 versus hitters but given how analytically driven this FO is there must be some reason they prefer hitters versus pitchers in the 1st round.

I hated all three of those picks. Agreed, they seem to have a pattern. 

[MN_ExPat]

5 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. 

I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft.

Always pick the very best player available. Period.

But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

I’m with Doc on this one. I watched Dollander pitch a bunch this last year, and the kid is legit and if he was available at #5… take him. No questions asked. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I hated all three of those picks. Agreed, they seem to have a pattern. 

I never liked the Rooker pick from the beginning.  There were good pitching options there and he was so old for a prospect I was never on board.  I talked myself into Sabato and Cavaco as being solid picks at the time.  Although I wanted Carroll instead of Cavaco I still was willing to let it play out long term.  In hindsight they talked themselves out of the better player. 

To keep things moving they need to not miss with that top 5 pick and they need to get more arms in the system.  This is a strong draft pool they have a chance to reload.  They generally always go bats with international signing so they should go with more arms in the draft IMO.  Not saying they "have" to go arm at number 5 but then go arms through the top 10.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

It’s seems that the Twins drafting  philosophy is that there is less risk drafting a bat vs an arm when the pick is at the top of the draft.  In the ten drafts from 2008-2017, the twins drafted  9 pitchers in the first round and only two—Berrios and Gibson—have had success as staring pitchers. And the two highest picks, Stewart and Jay, were big busts.  On the hitting side, there were 8 first rounders and 3 of them, Buxton, Hicks, and Gordon, have been solid contributors. In addition, both Lewis and Kiriloff still have a good chance to be solid and arguably would already be if not for injury. This may be a small sample size but I think it is instructive. 

It's a mistake to track back too far to try and establish a pattern in drafting; with a new regime comes a different philosophy and it makes little sense to hold Falvey & Levine responsible for drafting Kohl Stewart or Tyler Jay. They're responsible for trying to develop the draft picks they inherited, but they didn't draft them.

What should we presume with this front office when selecting at the top of the draft? Hard to know, i think. They've had 2 top 10 picks in their regime: a HS SS and a college SS. Most of their first round picks have been in the lower parts of the first round, and while that's been mostly college hitters, both of their picks in 2021 were HS players, one a pitcher. I think this front office looks for as much value as they think they can get in a draft more than anything else. They might prefer college players due to risk, but I don't think they're afraid to draft HS kids either. I don't think they'll be afraid to draft a pitcher at #5 if they think it's the best value prospect available.

 

[farmerguychris]

This is where I'd like to see the Twins spend most of their draft capital this next draft.  How many years have we been saying we need more pitching?  In the best pitcher draft we could possibly have - maybe only 5 out of 20 work out to the majors right?  I like the signing of people like Brooks Lee - he's exciting and I'm thrilled he fell that far.  I just get tired of always looking for pitching.  Don't reach, but don't go drafting any more DH/1B types please when pitchers with potential are sitting there.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I personally like to draft the most athletic prospect. With Dollander's profile he'll be ranked #1 & many teams like to draft pitchers. But if Dollander falls in our lap, I'd be ecstatic. He has a very good shot at being an ace.

I'd probably keep an eye on Wes Johnson's Skenes but I'm not considering him our #1 yet.

[Blyleven2011]

California angels drafted 21 pitchers in 2021 , 

Everyone needs pitching ...

We draft petty and trade him ,,

Please don't trade arms that have high upside   ....

I'm in agreement that we need pitching but the lower  risk is to pick the best available player , whether it's a pitcher or a hitter .....

I'd lean more on the best pitcher at #5 , we picked up the best college bat at #8 last year ...

[Mike Sixel]

Lots of people saying take a hitter... Are these the same people complaining about the pipeline? Or trading for pitchers!