Are the Twins going into retooling mode?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Watching some of the potential targets for the Twins getting signed by other teams (Haniger, Walker, Taillon, Bellinger) at what point should the Twins look at running with what they have and focus on retooling?  I say retooling because I believe they have too much talent on the roster for a complete rebuild.  Here are the big linchpins in my opinion:
1) Correa signing elsewhere
2) No FA SP sign here (Walker is already gone)

If these two things happen, I do not think the Twins will be making any major moves and will be sitting tight to push the youth movement.  In this scenario, I could also see them moving Gray and Kepler and planning for a 75 win season.

What are your thoughts on this?

[Reptevia]

Seems likely that no real impact players are signed by Twins. 

[Azviking101]

They better be ready for fan support to continue to plummet in the future if that happens. 

[weitz41]

Now is not the time for pessimism. Plus both those things have been highly likely from the get go. They are going to do something substantial with or without Correa....I hope....?

[Azviking101]

Wanted to throw in something Lavelle tweeted yesterday because I think he makes a great point. Also what does payroll currently look like? I’m not seeing an accurate number anywhere 

“Now, I believe this should be a year in which they push payroll. They still get more revenue from ticket sales than TV contract. Which is absurd. Crappy TV deal expires after this season. This is the year they push to win and leverage it into a better TV deal.”

 

[Dave Overlund]

No snark intended but what current factors would result in the Twins getting a better TV contract? They haven't been particularly good, the attendance has been tepid which reflects the team's general popularity and I cannot think of who else would even be bidding outside of Sinclair.

[Linus]

They shouldn’t as this might be the last year they have Gray Mahle and Maeda. Given their reluctance to spend on starters I could see the trade deadline or after next year being a time they blow it up. 

[Doctor Gast]

It doesn't look good, SF will go hard after CC, Then we have Cubs, LAD, SD, BOS & ATL going hard to compete for Bogaert, Swanson & maybe also the 2nd tier. The Twins shouldn't try to compete with these teams for these guys. I'd have liked them to pursue Contreras but he is gone & I don't think that they were ever in on him. Rodon will be sky high, should we go after Basset? Things are racing.

But I agree with weitz41, it's not the time to be pessimistic. We need to nail down Narvaez to platoon with hopefully an upgrade at catcher.  Trade Kepler for Marquez and trade for Guillorme to platoon at SS until Lewis is ready to take it away from him. The platoon of Farmer & Guillorme at SS IMO could be pretty awsome. I think it'd be mutually very beneficial to bring back Nelson Cruz. Not only what he brings to this club but it'd be nice to see him hit his 500th HR in a  Twins uniform. He'd also make a great coach, after he hangs it up.

[Azviking101]

17 minutes ago, Dave Overlund said:

No snark intended but what current factors would result in the Twins getting a better TV contract? They haven't been particularly good, the attendance has been tepid which reflects the team's general popularity and I cannot think of who else would even be bidding outside of Sinclair.

Literally no clue haha. I don’t know how any of that works, just pointing out what Lavelle mentioned 

[nicksaviking]

Outside of Hanigar, I can't imagine the Twins had any interest in those players. Bellinger, Walker and Taillon aren't even upgrades to what they have. The Twins would have been foolish giving any of them the kind of money they got.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Outside of Hanigar, I can't imagine the Twins had any interest in those players. Bellinger, Walker and Taillon aren't even upgrades to what they have. The Twins would have been foolish giving any of them the kind of money they got.

I suppose Jose Abreu and Andrew Heaney weren't on their radar?  How about the new Red Sox pitcher Kenley Jensen?

You may not agree with my examples, but every needle-mover that signs elsewhere is another step towards this team retooling.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Outside of Hanigar, I can't imagine the Twins had any interest in those players. Bellinger, Walker and Taillon aren't even upgrades to what they have. The Twins would have been foolish giving any of them the kind of money they got.

This. I believe they're are trying very hard to sign CC. But, like Aaron Judge, sometimes they won't succeed. I'll be disappointed if they don't, but I see zero evidence they aren't trying to win now. 

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I suppose Jose Abreu and Andrew Heaney weren't on their radar?  How about the new Red Sox pitcher Kenley Jensen?

You may not agree with my examples, but every needle-mover that signs elsewhere is another step towards this team retooling.

22 of the 26 roster spots are probably already set and those other four spots easily COULD be filled internally. Fortunately, that doesn't appear to be their aim. They literally aren't able to pursue every free agent. Or even most of them.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

17 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I suppose Jose Abreu and Andrew Heaney weren't on their radar?  How about the new Red Sox pitcher Kenley Jensen?

You may not agree with my examples, but every needle-mover that signs elsewhere is another step towards this team retooling.

I suppose Jose Abreu and Andrew Heaney weren't on their radar?  How about the new Red Sox pitcher Kenley Jensen?

You may not agree with my examples, but every needle-mover that signs elsewhere is another step towards this team retooling.

Pohlads see fans in the stands as no.1 priority, Twins cannot afford retooling as lack of fans in the stands during the seventies forced Calvin to sell, Pohlads are not baseball first like Calvin was, so a return to the seventies type teams will not be tolerated. plus beyond Buxton Twins have no Rod Carew caliber player to keep talking TV sports heads mouths flapping about the Twins.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Pohlads see fans in the stands as no.1 priority, Twins cannot afford retooling as lack of fans in the stands during the seventies forced Calvin to sell, Pohlads are not baseball first like Calvin was, so a return to the seventies type teams will not be tolerated. plus beyond Buxton Twins have no Rod Carew caliber player to keep talking TV sports heads mouths flapping about the Twins.

Actually, from Pohlad's point of view, winning does not matter, fans do not matter.  They will just slash payroll.  They will make money even if the Twins draw 7000 people per home game.  Money is in revenue sharing and tv contracts.

They have shown they truly don't care in previous years (contraction anyone?).

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Actually, from Pohlad's point of view, winning does not matter, fans do not matter.  They will just slash payroll.  They will make money even if the Twins draw 7000 people per home game.  Money is in revenue sharing and tv contracts.

They have shown they truly don't care in previous years (contraction anyone?).

That was decades ago, and they now realize they make money......I really don't understand this post. What do you think, that they know they make money, or they are the same people as decades ago?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

22 of the 26 roster spots are probably already set and those other four spots easily COULD be filled internally. Fortunately, that doesn't appear to be their aim. They literally aren't able to pursue every free agent. Or even most of them.

In your opinion, which roster spots are open?

1) Catcher #2
2) ?
3) ?
4) ?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In your opinion, which roster spots are open?

1) Catcher #2
2) ?
3) ?
4) ?

At least 2 RPs and likely a SP. 

For me, I'd add corner OF, but that's only because I don't know the health of AK, Larnach, Buxton (might need Gordon or Celestino in center)....nor do I know their confidence level in Wallner (who I'd put at DH).

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

That was decades ago, and they now realize they make money......I really don't understand this post. What do you think, that they know they make money, or they are the same people as decades ago?

The discussion is centered around the belief that that the Pohlad's can't afford to alienate the fans and have to field a successful team to keep the fans happy.  My response is that they have shown time and time again that fielding a winning team is not at the top of their priority list.  Making money comes first, regardless of how the fans feel.  The Pohlad approach has not really changed over the decades.  The Twins have been somewhat successful in spite of them (IMO).

I can easily see them doing virtually nothing this offseason and running with what they currently have.  The sell to us fans would be " We need to let what we have play out!"

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

At least 2 RPs and likely a SP. 

For me, I'd add corner OF, but that's only because I don't know the health of AK, Larnach, Buxton (might need Gordon or Celestino in center)....nor do I know their confidence level in Wallner (who I'd put at DH).

So you think we are set in the field and do not need to attempt to upgrade anywhere?  Last-year's below average offense is now currently worse after  losing Urshela and Sanchez...

Sounds like you are a firm believer that we just need to let our young guys play... I would put that in the retooling category.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The discussion is centered around the belief that that the Pohlad's can't afford to alienate the fans and have to field a successful team to keep the fans happy.  My response is that they have shown time and time again that fielding a winning team is not at the top of their priority list.  Making money comes first, regardless of how the fans feel.  The Pohlad approach has not really changed over the decades.  The Twins have been somewhat successful in spite of them (IMO).

I can easily see them doing virtually nothing this offseason and running with what they currently have.  The sell to us fans would be " We need to let what we have play out!"

They've literally their highest payroll every year since this FO took over.....could be that the team has changed some over the decades....or not.

Given how active they've been in the last 5 years, I don't agree they haven't done much to try to win. They just were wrong and unlucky last year. That's not the same as not trying. They traded for Gray. They signed CC. They then dealt prospects like they were going out of style at the break. Does that sound like a team not trying to win now?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So you think we are set in the field and do not need to attempt to upgrade anywhere?  Last-year's below average offense is now currently worse after  losing Urshela and Sanchez...

Sounds like you are a firm believer that we just need to let our young guys play... I would put that in the retooling category.

That's not what I said. I said that if there are 4 open spots, those are likely it.

I do think they need a legit SS.....I left that off by accident. I've also been quite clear in other threads they should sign CC and then deal Lee or Lewis as part of a package to get a number 1 or 2 pitcher. 

[Original_JB]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The discussion is centered around the belief that that the Pohlad's can't afford to alienate the fans and have to field a successful team to keep the fans happy.  My response is that they have shown time and time again that fielding a winning team is not at the top of their priority list.  Making money comes first, regardless of how the fans feel.  The Pohlad approach has not really changed over the decades.  The Twins have been somewhat successful in spite of them (IMO).

I can easily see them doing virtually nothing this offseason and running with what they currently have.  The sell to us fans would be " We need to let what we have play out!"

Or, since we had so many injuries, they go line-by-line 'well, if so and so is healthy, that's just like a new player'. The number of times I've read about rotations of 'well, if this guy is healthy," and "this guy reclaims his skill from years ago", and this guy "continues to develop", and this other guy "will benefit from some rule change" -- we should be good!

 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In your opinion, which roster spots are open?

1) Catcher #2
2) ?
3) ?
4) ?

The team is made up pretty much of players that can play multiple positions so there's some flexibility. SS obviously could be filled, but if they don't get Correa or Bogaerts (or Swanson, but personally I'm not a fan), what the Twins have is probably better than the alternatives, so a utility guy who plays 2B, SS and/or 3B. 

I'd say two pitchers, but since Ryan and Gray and Mahle if healthy are the only rotation locks, they can be flexible there depending if they're able to trade for a starter better than those three or not.

But considering that they brought in three big name vets during the season last year, and said vets drew the ire of the fans with their performances while the young, internal guys pitched great, they could easily decide that the internal options are the way to go with the pen. 

[Original_JB]

"They've literally their highest payroll every year since this FO took over.....could be that the team has changed some over the decades....or not."

Inflation. Everyone's costs go up, just look at the $$$ being shoveled out to FAs this year. Maybe look and see where the Twins' payroll is compared to the rest of the MLB. If, what you're saying is true, they should be moving up the ranks in what they pay out, and yet they do not. They sit in the middle, same as always, give or take a few spots.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Dave Overlund said:

No snark intended but what current factors would result in the Twins getting a better TV contract? They haven't been particularly good, the attendance has been tepid which reflects the team's general popularity and I cannot think of who else would even be bidding outside of Sinclair.

MLB, Amazon Apple, or Disney maybe? Traditional cable networks are probably out the window, but the MLB is still very lucrative.

In terms of the OP, DSP dropped hints in August that the team might reduce payroll this off-season. My guess is they have a targeted list, and if they don’t succeed, internal options rather than plan B free agents.

Edit to add, agreed with Mike, there’s probably 2 relief Pitchers, Catcher, Correa at SS, an outfielder, maybe a Starting Pitcher. If they can sign or trade for their specific targets, they’ll do it, if they can’t, internal options are they way they go

[baul0010]

51 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

22 of the 26 roster spots are probably already set and those other four spots easily COULD be filled internally. Fortunately, that doesn't appear to be their aim. They literally aren't able to pursue every free agent. Or even most of them.

Or any of them :)

[nicksaviking]

Just now, baul0010 said:

Or any of them :)

Sounds like they're pursuing the two biggest free agents currently on the market.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They've literally their highest payroll every year since this FO took over.....could be that the team has changed some over the decades....or not.

Given how active they've been in the last 5 years, I don't agree they haven't done much to try to win. They just were wrong and unlucky last year. That's not the same as not trying. They traded for Gray. They signed CC. They then dealt prospects like they were going out of style at the break. Does that sound like a team not trying to win now?

I think the higher payrolls is relative to market inflation.

I agree they have been active.  Every year they sign reclamation projects or fliers.  Players they have picked up were judicious trades or signings that fell in their lap.  Correa (who fell in their lap) could very well be an outlier, time will tell.

I think the team tries to win, I think the FO down all try to win.  I think the Pohlads give them dollar frame to work out of.  Period.  I do not think they care if the Twins win or lose, because they will make money either way.

[gman]

I think retooling seems like a good description. Even if everyone is healthy next season, we still don't know what we have. We have 4 projected starters who have played a full season in the majors, Polanco, Arraez, Farmer & Buxton(once). Plus 2 players on the bench with Kepler & Gordon. Many expect Kepler to be gone. In the past week there have been articles here trying trade away Polanco and Arraez. So, no I don't think we even know what we have.