The Argument Against Trading Max Kepler

[Trov]

27 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I have discussed this ad nauseum in other articles, but, to review:

1)  He is 2nd in MLB in hits lost to the shift over the last few years, a 50 point swing in his BA.  Data shows he has a strong chance to see an offensive resurgence now that the shift rules have changed.

 

I would like to see the data on that, not saying it is not there, but find it may not be super accurate.  One thing, does that data take into account the few hits he gets because of the shift, or just the hits he maybe would not have got due to the shift?  Also, is it based on assuming range led to the ground ball being stopped because of the depth of the 2nd baseman, or position of SS on right side of base?  Meaning, did the 2nd baseman have to move left or right to stop the ball and only because of depth they managed to cut it off?  Is this also based on if the 2nd baseman was in a standard position for RH hitter, or old traditional position for LH hitter?  Even without playing deeper into the RF, many 2nd basemen would still play much closer to 1st.  Again, I am not saying the data is wrong, but I would love to see it to see if it is flawed. 

I personally did not watch every at bat over the past year for Max or past years.  However, I do not recall seeing too many balls that were smoked to a hole between 1st and 2nd where the 2nd baseman makes a great ranging play to throw out Max.  I would normally see him hit many weak ground balls that would have been cut off at normal depth.  I also recall seeing a few balls he hit where a SS would have normally been that he got hits on, so that should count against the count of hits lost because of shift, because he got some hits because of shift too. 

That being said, I am more than happy to keep Max this year as I doubt he will have much trade value, and you do not just trade a guy because he is not playing to the level you hope, because normally what you get back is not much value either.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Several posts mention him being a valuable backup to BB in CF.  How many times did he play CF last season when BB was out?  The Twins just do not play him there so that is NOT a reason to keep him.

I also take exception to those mentioning that he should not bat above 7th in the batting order.  Their lineup was so thin who should have been there instead of Kepler?  Cave?  Celestino? The team was so decimated by injuries that they were forced to put him up there.

I say if you can get a good return of MLB talent, go ahead and trade him.  If not, then keep him until the trade deadline at minimum to see if the non-shift rule helps increase his value.

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Except he’s not the backup to Buxton. Celestino or some unknown poor replacement is inserted instead. Also, how many times did Max bat cleanup last year?  (Forty Seven!?!?!). It’s getting to the point that getting him gone is the only way to take these bad decisions out of Rocco’s hands. How many bad hitters can the Twins “hide” in their lineup?

Personally, I would rather Max back up BB than the others.  He has proven he can handle it and maybe, just maybe, Celestino could use a little more seasoning and not being pushed into action whenever BB goes on the IL or has to DH to save himself.  We just had an article about how many corner OF's we have; if Max had to move over, there is a plethora of choices to move into right.  Or is replacing Max in right and BB in center too much at once?  ?

And if we have to save Rocco from himself, maybe he should be the one traded.  ?

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Trov said:

I would like to see the data on that, not saying it is not there, but find it may not be super accurate.  One thing, does that data take into account the few hits he gets because of the shift, or just the hits he maybe would not have got due to the shift?  Also, is it based on assuming range led to the ground ball being stopped because of the depth of the 2nd baseman, or position of SS on right side of base?  Meaning, did the 2nd baseman have to move left or right to stop the ball and only because of depth they managed to cut it off?  Is this also based on if the 2nd baseman was in a standard position for RH hitter, or old traditional position for LH hitter?  Even without playing deeper into the RF, many 2nd basemen would still play much closer to 1st.  Again, I am not saying the data is wrong, but I would love to see it to see if it is flawed. 

I personally did not watch every at bat over the past year for Max or past years.  However, I do not recall seeing too many balls that were smoked to a hole between 1st and 2nd where the 2nd baseman makes a great ranging play to throw out Max.  I would normally see him hit many weak ground balls that would have been cut off at normal depth.  I also recall seeing a few balls he hit where a SS would have normally been that he got hits on, so that should count against the count of hits lost because of shift, because he got some hits because of shift too. 

That being said, I am more than happy to keep Max this year as I doubt he will have much trade value, and you do not just trade a guy because he is not playing to the level you hope, because normally what you get back is not much value either.  

Good Points. I find myself questioning most defensive stats due to sample size but let's say it's a 50 point jump for Kepler like the stat suggests.  

This benefit isn't Kepler's alone so the overall bar is going to rise. Others may only get a 25 point jump and those others may be starting higher than the .220's. 

Kepler has a longer way to go. Like a NASCAR who gets his car fixed after he has been lapped.

WIth all that said... I will stay hopeful that the shift ban helps him but we have to be prepared for the possibility of 3 years in a row sub-par. We need an OF with a BAT.  

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

He's a 2+ bWAR player and that's not anything to sneeze at...

I'll go ahead and sneeze. ?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

8 minutes ago, Trov said:

I would like to see the data on that, not saying it is not there, but find it may not be super accurate.  One thing, does that data take into account the few hits he gets because of the shift, or just the hits he maybe would not have got due to the shift?  Also, is it based on assuming range led to the ground ball being stopped because of the depth of the 2nd baseman, or position of SS on right side of base?  Meaning, did the 2nd baseman have to move left or right to stop the ball and only because of depth they managed to cut it off?  Is this also based on if the 2nd baseman was in a standard position for RH hitter, or old traditional position for LH hitter?  Even without playing deeper into the RF, many 2nd basemen would still play much closer to 1st.  Again, I am not saying the data is wrong, but I would love to see it to see if it is flawed. 

I personally did not watch every at bat over the past year for Max or past years.  However, I do not recall seeing too many balls that were smoked to a hole between 1st and 2nd where the 2nd baseman makes a great ranging play to throw out Max.  I would normally see him hit many weak ground balls that would have been cut off at normal depth.  I also recall seeing a few balls he hit where a SS would have normally been that he got hits on, so that should count against the count of hits lost because of shift, because he got some hits because of shift too. 

That being said, I am more than happy to keep Max this year as I doubt he will have much trade value, and you do not just trade a guy because he is not playing to the level you hope, because normally what you get back is not much value either.  

I have seen various articles and numbers putting him near the top.  I don't want to argue 2nd vs 3rd, what exact number of hits were lost (my quotes were from one of the articles not listed below).  Here are some of the articles with that data, you will see Kepler pop up a lot near the top.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/11/21/banning-infield-shifts-impact

https://www.pitcherlist.com/no-more-shifts-could-mean-a-lot-more-hits/

https://theathletic.com/2771363/2021/08/26/nothing-unlucky-about-it-six-years-into-his-twins-career-why-are-max-keplers-batting-averages-so-low/  (paywall)

A little more help from closer to home:
https://www.twinkietown.com/2022/3/9/22967255/mlb-baseball-mn-twins-the-shift-is-going-away-which-twin-stands-to-gain-the-most-max-kepler-lockout

https://zonecoverage.com/2022/mn-twins-news/how-will-the-shift-ban-impact-the-twins/

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not to change the subject too much, but an interesting name you also see near the top of these lists is Joey Gallo.  Would like to see what kind of improvement he sees this year.  He could be a potential flier candidate...

[adorduan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I hope he benefits from the shift ban but I also have to assume that many many others will also benefit from that shift ban so I am hopeful but yet... not ready to bet the house on it. 

I get the defensive reputation that Max is credited for... however, the value of it makes no sense to me in regards to the WAR he is credited for. 

Let's look at Nick Gordon and Max Kepler side by side. 

Max Kepler: AB 388 - BA .227 - HR 9 - OBP .318 - SLG .348 - OPS .666

Nick Gordon: AB 405 - BA .272 - HR 9 - OBP .316 - SLG .427 - OPS .743

Equal with Home Runs and OBP so Max will take a few more walks. Batting Average and Slugging significantly higher for Gordon and with the higher slugging comes the higher OPS. 

Now let's check out 2022 WAR (Baseball Reference):

Kepler: 2.1

Gordon: 1.6  

How much defensive weighting is required for Max to produce a higher war in light of the 2022 offensive stats illustrated above. 

Kepler had 227 chances primarily in RF

Gordon had 167 chances at multiple positions. 

The overwhelming majority of those chances are classified as routine or likely meaning anybody would have made the play. 

Can anyone make this make sense to me? 

Because in the end defensive metrics are a crap shoot, they are the least reliable stat of any out there, and should be viewed that way.

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, adorduan said:

Because in the end defensive metrics are a crap shoot, they are the least reliable stat of any out there, and should be viewed that way.

So WAR must be as well? 

[Reptevia]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

So WAR must be as well? 

YES!

[Reptevia]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I hope he benefits from the shift ban but I also have to assume that many many others will also benefit from that shift ban so I am hopeful but yet... not ready to bet the house on it. 

I get the defensive reputation that Max is credited for... however, the value of it makes no sense to me in regards to the WAR he is credited for. 

Let's look at Nick Gordon and Max Kepler side by side. 

Max Kepler: AB 388 - BA .227 - HR 9 - OBP .318 - SLG .348 - OPS .666

Nick Gordon: AB 405 - BA .272 - HR 9 - OBP .316 - SLG .427 - OPS .743

Equal with Home Runs and OBP so Max will take a few more walks. Batting Average and Slugging significantly higher for Gordon and with the higher slugging comes the higher OPS. 

Now let's check out 2022 WAR (Baseball Reference):

Kepler: 2.1

Gordon: 1.6  

How much defensive weighting is required for Max to produce a higher war in light of the 2022 offensive stats illustrated above. 

Kepler had 227 chances primarily in RF

Gordon had 167 chances at multiple positions. 

The overwhelming majority of those chances are classified as routine or likely meaning anybody would have made the play. 

Can anyone make this make sense to me? 

Nope. Defensive analytics get WAY too much value. Especially in a position where most teams hide defensive liabilities. 

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

So WAR must be as well? 

I kind of agree that it is. oWAR seems more reliable to me.

Defensive stats need to get their act together. Torii Hunter went from being the worst RF in the league in Detroit to putting up a 3.5 UZR as a 39-year-old at Target Field, meanwhile, Max Kepler's playing the exact same position in the same ballpark and had a -1.1 UZR last year.  Does not compute. Then if you look at DRS, it has them the complete opposite. DRS says Jose Miranda is a poor First baseman and a league average Third baseman, while UZR says he's a good First baseman and a terrible Third baseman. And both URZ and DRS vary way more than they should year-to-year. 

At this point, I don't think we're anywhere near to being close to accurately labeling defense with numerical values.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

Max's ability to play centerfield is valuable but the Twins seem to always turn to another player to take Buxton's spot. With the outlawing of the shift, yes, his batting average would go up maybe 20 points. But those will all be singles. And he si overpaid.

Max needs to return to being a home run hitter to warrant keeping him ..

W/o the shift his defense in RF is of more importance on some small level. 10-12 hits due to no shift is 25 points or more on 400 AB’s. He needs to hit more doubles & that should be doable with previous power numbers (one year with LIVELY ball) & his speed. He’s an RBI guy by accident/good fortune, not because he’s clutch. Bat him 7th or 8th.

25 -30 points on his average, keep walking at a decent rate, 10 more doubles & his standard defense and the TWINS win! Not too much optimism from the FO to justify this thinking.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I kind of agree that it is. oWAR seems more reliable to me.

Defensive stats need to get their act together. Torii Hunter went from being the worst RF in the league in Detroit to putting up a 3.5 UZR as a 39-year-old at Target Field, meanwhile, Max Kepler's playing the exact same position in the same ballpark and had a -1.1 UZR last year.  Does not compute. Then if you look at DRS, it has them the complete opposite. DRS says Jose Miranda is a poor First baseman and a league average Third baseman, while UZR says he's a good First baseman and a terrible Third baseman. And both URZ and DRS vary way more than they should year-to-year. 

At this point, I don't think we're anywhere near to being close to accurately labeling defense with numerical values.

Yet... those numbers get folded into WAR which in turn says that Max Kepler is better than Nick Gordon despite quite significant offensive stats that say otherwise. 

And then WAR is used by the masses as some sort of universal gospel truth that Max Kepler is OK. 

I'm ultimately trying to get my arms around people who are not concerned about handing Max a starting job and NOT needing an upgrade in the OF because of his presence.   

 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I have seen various articles and numbers putting him near the top.  I don't want to argue 2nd vs 3rd, what exact number of hits were lost (my quotes were from one of the articles not listed below).  Here are some of the articles with that data, you will see Kepler pop up a lot near the top.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/11/21/banning-infield-shifts-impact

https://www.pitcherlist.com/no-more-shifts-could-mean-a-lot-more-hits/

https://theathletic.com/2771363/2021/08/26/nothing-unlucky-about-it-six-years-into-his-twins-career-why-are-max-keplers-batting-averages-so-low/  (paywall)

A little more help from closer to home:
https://www.twinkietown.com/2022/3/9/22967255/mlb-baseball-mn-twins-the-shift-is-going-away-which-twin-stands-to-gain-the-most-max-kepler-lockout

https://zonecoverage.com/2022/mn-twins-news/how-will-the-shift-ban-impact-the-twins/

 

I see Mitch Haniger on the list as one of the players who will benefit from the shift. He's not starting from as far down as Max.

Let's cash in that benefit. ?

[PatPfund]

The part of the OP that is dead on? Max has more value to the Twins than to others. 

A. (as pointed out) the vaunted OF depth doesn't exist. In both of the past two seasons we've been running a cast of players not-ready-for-prime-time to the OF for extended starts. One of them (Celestino) is often considered a fixture of some sort now, despite being a weak-bat/weak-mind player.

B. Everyone else knows of Max's struggles. I'd trade him today if there was going to be something substantial coming back, but if it is just to move him (or dump salary with the tens of millions we have free to spend right now), then... no. And again, everyone knows Max, so something substantial isn't coming back. 

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yet... those numbers get folded into WAR which in turn says that Max Kepler is better than Nick Gordon despite quite significant offensive stats that say otherwise. 

And then WAR is used by the masses as some sort of universal gospel truth that Max Kepler is OK. 

I'm ultimately trying to get my arms around people who are not concerned about handing Max a starting job and NOT needing an upgrade in the OF because of his presence.   

 

Might be some disconnect, but I never use WAR to advocate for a player, I purposefully stick to offensive stats and let people's defensive opinions lay as they will.

And I have no inclination to hand Max Kepler a job as his bat has fallen off of a cliff.

[joefish]

FWIW

I saw a sign posted on an outhouse door on Montague Island in Alaska that said Jimmy Hoffa's body was buried there. 

And now you know.

[MoyBoy74]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

The only way they should trade Max is if they get major league talent in return.  His contract is not outrageous, his defense is top notch, he can cover center in a pinch, and if you bat him 6th or 7th he is not the detriment a lot of people think he is.  As part of a package, or alone, unless you get something in return, and I don't mean a "prospect", we should at least see how the non shift era begins.  And if someone comes along and simply outplays him, then talk trade, but that hasn't happened yet.  As of today, he should be your right fielder unless a truly good deal presents itself.  

I am ok if we don't trade him. However he should never hit higher that 7th in the lineup. Lots of teams with deep lineup wouldn't hit him higher than 8th. I love his defense but has seemed like a automatic out more often than not. Rocco would hit him 4,5,6 because he is Left-handed. He should hit in bottom 3rd of lineup.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Several posts mention him being a valuable backup to BB in CF.  How many times did he play CF last season when BB was out?  The Twins just do not play him there so that is NOT a reason to keep him.

I also take exception to those mentioning that he should not bat above 7th in the batting order.  Their lineup was so thin who should have been there instead of Kepler?  Cave?  Celestino? The team was so decimated by injuries that they were forced to put him up there.

I say if you can get a good return of MLB talent, go ahead and trade him.  If not, then keep him until the trade deadline at minimum to see if the non-shift rule helps increase his value.

I think he probably would have gotten a little more run in CF behind Buxton this season except for two factors: 1) we had so many OF getting hurt that we didn't exactly have a surplus in the corners any longer either, 2) if we needed to play celestino because of the truck load of injuries, we were better off playing him in CF than moving kepler over and asking celestino to play a corner spot, and 3) Kepler's busted toe probably meant that even after he came back they were trying to protect him a little bit from having to cover CF.

which is also why he ended up batting in the top half of the order more than his production warranted late in the year: who else was gonna go in?

I'm not itching to trade kepler, but I would nose around a little and see what the return is, especially if they need to create some payroll space (seems unnecessary, but YNK). I certainly wouldn't move him just to move him and I wouldn't be afraid to slide him into more of a 4th OF role if they sign a big RH bat for RF.

[Verified Member]

"...there’s a chance he truly experienced bad luck in 2022."  To this I say: Fool me 20,000 time shame on you, fool me 20,001 time shame on me.

I guess I've always had a hopeful spot for Nick Gordon and would like to see what he could do for a full year in one position.  I think his defense improves and he has improved each year offensively.  Shouldn't he also benefit from shifting limitations, just like 90% of all other players?

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Except he’s not the backup to Buxton. Celestino or some unknown poor replacement is inserted instead. Also, how many times did Max bat cleanup last year?  (Forty Seven!?!?!). It’s getting to the point that getting him gone is the only way to take these bad decisions out of Rocco’s hands. How many bad hitters can the Twins “hide” in their lineup?

This. The Twins do NOT use him in CF anymore. I don't know why people keep saying he is available there.

If you wait for minor league players to prove they belong, they never come up. Ever. You can't prove it in the minors.....so that argument holds no weight for me.

Max hasn't hit well for a corner OF other than 1 year. His D is very good....but can't hit and he isn't healthy. I am not opposed to keeping him, but he's fine, maybe almost "good". But that's it, IMO. 

The minor league players have the potential to be much better hitters. NO ONE ran on Larnach after a few games last year. Wallner? I'm not going to judge him on D in 133 innings......Then there is AK and Celestino and Lewis (if they sign CC). He's going to give the Twins 1.5-2.3 WAR. Not great, not awful. I'm not sure that's enough to keep him around (assuming they use the savings on something). 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

Personally, I would rather Max back up BB than the others.  He has proven he can handle it and maybe, just maybe, Celestino could use a little more seasoning and not being pushed into action whenever BB goes on the IL or has to DH to save himself.  We just had an article about how many corner OF's we have; if Max had to move over, there is a plethora of choices to move into right.  Or is replacing Max in right and BB in center too much at once?  ?

And if we have to save Rocco from himself, maybe he should be the one traded.  ?

Rocco isn't making that decision.......so you'd have to get rid of the FO and the manager and others, I'd guess. Maybe even Max.

[DocBauer]

Been a fan of Max's since the day he was signed. What a great story! Always believed the natural athleticism would take over and the bat we saw tease in milb would be real at the ML level. Alas, he's just never been anything but around average with the bat, though a good baserunner and by no means an automatic K machine. 

Do we really think the shift ban is going to really set up him for success? First of all, the shift is entirely gone. You can still play the RF in, can still shade the CF, can still play the 2B deep, can still have the 1B play off the bag, and the SS can still cheat up the middle, he just can't cross the 2B bag until contact. So unless Kepler suddenly re-discovers some actual power in his stroke I don't see a major change, though it might help some.

I can see all the reasons to keep him, and have done so in other TD articles. Quality defense and can cover CF well. (He doesn't like to do it daily as he's reported it wears down his legs some, and with Gordon and Celestino on the roster the past couple of years, he hasn't had to as much. That might be a mistake). Hes a veteran with rebound potential and offers at least a little more of a "sure thing" presence when we're still waiting for Kirilloff, and Larnach to be 100% physically ready and for Wallner to just be ready period, especially with a little smoothing of his defensive edges.

But at some point, you also have to trust in your top prospects. And all 3 of those guys are top Twins player prospects. And this team really needs improved offensive production. Good defense is awesome! It's valuable! But damn, this team needs to score some runs too! And yes, with or without Kepler they need some RH help better than Garlick. 

I'm fine if Max is back as a lower order hitter...where he should have been for a while now...I'm not going to be upset. Let him play great defense and produce in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, hopefully with some uptick based on health, adjustments, and at least some changes in the shift. But the term that's been attached to him of late is "freezer burn", meaning at some point, things expire, it's just time to move on. I think Kepler and the Twins may have reached that date.

 

[Seansy]

Max has always provided at least 2 WAR every year since he became a regular in 2016. Outside of 2019 (3.8) he has never eclipsed 2.5 WAR (2020 could of extrapolated to over 3 WAR but with health who knows how many games he plays *shrug*). 

1 WAR = ~8M dollar. His salary is 8.5M this year and 10M next year. The option will get picked up. Max has surplus value relative to his contract. If he is part of a deal for some kind of impact pitcher I am fine trading him but the number of people acting like he's just a salary dump at this point is absurd.

I think Larnach should be penciled into 1 corner OF spot but with Wallner's poor defense and very high K% I am concerned about his adjustment to MLB pitching. I think he could use some more time in AAA to work on his defense and his swing. He should be depth at AAA in case of an injury to Max or Larnach rather than starting the year with the team. As Matt correctly notes, Larnach has struggled to stay healthy lately so having a good depth option at AAA makes more sense than plugging in Gordon to start if an injury happens. I would hold onto Max barring some trade proposal.

[tony&rodney]

Knowing nothing .... why do I think that Max Kepler has not been happy playing for the Minnesota Twins the past two years and that his demeanor has greatly affected the outcome of those two seasons?

[Mark G]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Rocco isn't making that decision.......so you'd have to get rid of the FO and the manager and others, I'd guess. Maybe even Max.

I think we got our wires crossed.  The quip about saving Rocco from himself wasn't about playing Max in CF, it was batting him cleanup.  I don't think the FO is making out the batting order, though they may very well be saying who plays where.  ?

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Seansy said:

Max has always provided at least 2 WAR every year since he became a regular in 2016. Outside of 2019 (3.8) he has never eclipsed 2.5 WAR (2020 could of extrapolated to over 3 WAR but with health who knows how many games he plays *shrug*). 

1 WAR = ~8M dollar. His salary is 8.5M this year and 10M next year. The option will get picked up. Max has surplus value relative to his contract. If he is part of a deal for some kind of impact pitcher I am fine trading him but the number of people acting like he's just a salary dump at this point is absurd.
 

Before you use the word absurd. 

Please do your 1 WAR = 8M dollar math on Eddie Rosario before we let him walk over an estimated 10m during Arbitration. Extrapolate his shortened 2020 season the same way as you did Max. 

Also... Let me ask your opinion on how Eddie Rosario went from 4.3 to 1.5 bWAR from 2018 to 2019? Please break down the numbers that caused a 4.3 to 1.5 drop because I'm not understanding how it's possible and I could use some help understanding.  

 

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Might be some disconnect, but I never use WAR to advocate for a player, I purposefully stick to offensive stats and let people's defensive opinions lay as they will.

And I have no inclination to hand Max Kepler a job as his bat has fallen off of a cliff.

No disconnect. I agree and was actually attempting to further your thoughts with my own. 

[TopGunn#22]

Trading Max Kepler has been discussed several times on TD and the opinions are divided.  I think he has little value left as a trade piece although I could get on board a trade for Marquez from Colorado or Lourdes Gurriel from Toronto.  Marquez bolsters the pitching staff.  Gurriel gives the Twins a RH bat in LF and opens the door for Larnach to play RF.  Gurriel is nowhere near the defensive player that Max is, but he's twice the offensive threat.  Either deal would basically be a one-for-one deal using BTV.  

If the Twins want to aim higher in a trade then Larnach is probably the guy to consider although his BTV has dropped 50% from last year to this (30.4 to 14.6).  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  What teams would be interested in Max and what teams would be interested in Larnach?  I see Kepler's offense improving slightly in 2023 where ever he's playing.  But I don't see a significant increase in power or a 50-point jump in batting average.