The Twins Need to Set a Carlos Correa Contract Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa is one of the biggest keys to the Twins' offseason plan. So does the team need to set a deadline for whether they are in or out on Correa?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

 

With the Winter Meetings starting this week, the hot stove might begin to heat up. Plenty of the biggest free agents and their representatives will be traveling the halls in San Diego. Scott Boras, who represents Carlos Correa, is usually one of the most active people at the annual event. Besides Correa, he represents other top free agents like Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo, and Carlos Rodon. Boras can see how the market plays out for his top clients, but the Twins might not have the time to wait on a Correa decision. 

Minnesota has payroll flexibility this winter, with around $50 million in payroll to spend. The Twins will likely get outbid for Correa's services, and the team will have to pivot to other options. However, the Twins might end up with no viable free-agent options if Correa's contract negotiations drag out over the next few months. Some top free agents like Jacob deGrom and Jose Abreu are already off the market, and other names may sign as more conversations occur at the Winter Meetings. 

Last winter, the market didn't play out in Correa's favor. He switched agents, and the lockout forced him to wait until spring training started to ink a deal. Correa can choose to be patient this winter to see what clubs miss on Aaron Judge before turning their attention to the other top names on the market. Correa likely wants a decision sooner rather than later, but he's expected to sign a contract covering the remainder of his career. It must be a good fit from the team and player's perspective. 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have proven the ability to be patient and let the market play out in their favor. However, that strategy almost didn't play out in their favor last year as Correa fell into their laps as spring training began. In previous offseasons, they had made offers to some of the top free agent starters like Zack Wheeler before signing Josh Donaldson to a multi-year contract. Thankfully, the team was able to jettison the Donaldson contract, but this winter might be the time for the Twins to change their off-season strategy.  

Internally, the Twins should set a deadline to sign Correa so they have enough remaining time in the offseason to make moves that put themselves back in contention. The AL Central is one of baseball's worst divisions, and Minnesota has finished below .500 in two consecutive seasons. Things will be challenging for AL Central clubs, with MLB schedules becoming more balanced next season. According to the preliminary ZiPS projected standings, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish 81-81, one game behind Cleveland for the division title. Obviously, a player of Correa's caliber can be worth enough WAR to push the Twins to another level. 

According to reports, the Twins have made multiple contract offers to Correa from six to ten years in length. It's certainly good that Minnesota's front office is engaging him in contract talks, but the team can only afford to see so many free agents sign with other clubs. Bogaerts seems like the player the Twins will turn to after Correa, and the team may need to pivot to him at some point in the coming weeks. If Correa returns to the Twins, it would be in the team's best interest to have a deal in place before the end of December, so the front office can continue to improve the roster around him. Otherwise, the team may be left without few moves to make. 

Do the Twins need to set a Correa contract deadline? How long can they wait for him to make a decision? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[dxpavelka]

Not really a need.  Highly unlikely that we sign any other big time, big name, big dollar free agent other than Correa.  And even if we do it would most likely be a short term rental anyway.  IF we sign someone else to a big contract and can't afford Correa we pivot away from him at that point.  We've already got a plan b.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Yes in that there may be nobody else to pivot to.  If others start falling off the board, they should give him a deadline.

[Whitey333]

Yes there MUST be some kind of deadline.  Make your best offer with a deadline attached.  If that's not acceptable to him, so be it.  Let him go.  He's used us for his own interests long enough anyway.  This fascination with Correa is interesting.  If he signs here, there will be the instant euphoria.  Then when it's realized there is limited payroll dollars left for other areas people will get upset that souch payroll money is tied up to one person.  There had better be a more far reaching development with this roster including Correa.  Just signing him and adding not much else would seem foolish IMO.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, a deadline is needed so the Twins don't come away empty handed in the shortstop sweepstakes. 

It could work out for the Twins though, because they are Correa's and Boras' best leverage. They're not going to want Minnesota out of the bidding, so it might be most beneficial to get a deal done sooner rather than later.

[Original_JB]

Well, Boras is no dummy, and I'm sure that having the Twins essentially begging to have him back at some "bottom of the market" price with a variety of year length contracts, has him thrilled, and in no hurry.  If the Twins feel they want one of the other 3 FA SSs at all, they should go about their business and make offers to them. That said, unless it is an overpay, I think everyone is waiting for the Judge contract to drop and everyone falls into line after that. Will the 'non-Correa' SSs stand around and wait to see what he gets before signing? Again, unless it's a "market rate" or big overpay (like Texas did with Seager and Semien) I'm not sure. But the Twins certainly shouldn't sit on their hands waiting. If one of the other 3 bite on a reasonable deal and it's an upgrade from where you're at, make the move, and maybe give Correa a "right now, yes/no" option, before making the signing.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The problem with ultimatums is that you are attempting to close the door.  In what world would the Twins close the door on Correa?

You close the door by signing another big 4 shortstop.  I find it extremely hard to believe that if the Twins sign a stopgap to a 1 year contract and Correa comes back a week later saying he wants to sign with the Twins, the Twins would say no.

Signing Correa is not going to stop them from going after other players.  They could sign Rodon and still have Correa if he wanted to come here.

The market just needs to play out.  Don't handicap yourself by making threats you won't back up.

[tony&rodney]

Right now it sure looks like all of the leverage is with the players/agents. The Manfred statements about the dire financial situation across baseball is in the rear view mirror. The Twins have options with drafting, development, health, trades, and free agents. The strategy of waiting out the market is always an option too, but one that is looking dim. There are opportunities and the next week should shake loose a number of deals across baseball. Hopefully Falvey identifies some deals, some of which may be costly in either players and/or money. I don't believe deadlines is one of the options.

[mnfireman]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Right now it sure looks like all of the leverage is with the players/agents. 

This! Players/agents can hold up the market all they want, but if a player doesn't get signed, then he and his agent can claim collusion.

[Nashvilletwin]

25 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

Well, Boras is no dummy, and I'm sure that having the Twins essentially begging to have him back at some "bottom of the market" price with a variety of year length contracts, has him thrilled, and in no hurry.  If the Twins feel they want one of the other 3 FA SSs at all, they should go about their business and make offers to them. That said, unless it is an overpay, I think everyone is waiting for the Judge contract to drop and everyone falls into line after that. Will the 'non-Correa' SSs stand around and wait to see what he gets before signing? Again, unless it's a "market rate" or big overpay (like Texas did with Seager and Semien) I'm not sure. But the Twins certainly shouldn't sit on their hands waiting. If one of the other 3 bite on a reasonable deal and it's an upgrade from where you're at, make the move, and maybe give Correa a "right now, yes/no" option, before making the signing.

Great insights - if I may embellish.

1. The market for CC is probably pretty deep and the Twins are not necessarily the likeliest highest bidder (which, btw, is not necessarily the same thing as the preferred destination). So there is not much downside to Boras/CC if the Twins set a deadline, the deadline is rejected, and Twins are publicly out.

2. You are correct - nothing happens at the top of the market until Judge signs. Buyers and sellers are waiting to see what kind of ammo that gives to their arguments.

3. You are correct - even if the Twins are publicly out, nothing prevents them from jumping back in later. I’ve seen it a lot. But, generally speaking, that strategy causes the bidder to lose leverage (i.e. “What? You want back in? Now? We thought you were out. Well, we are way down the road with others - mentally and contactually. So, if you want back in, you are going to have to move fast and pay up”) in the process unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. it becomes known that the bidder and seller are really the only two left at the table). Unless, the Twins employ the strategy you recommended: make offers to multiple players at which you are fairly indifferent. Essentially FBI - first ball in. Then, you go back to your preferred choice with a final shot.

4. It’s actually a very complicated and dynamic situation - made more so by Boras representing both of the Twins most likely SS targets. Not that he cares, but the potential for conflicts of interest for Boras are very high. Btw, that might on the margin help the Twins.

5. Farmer was a great sign - provides a legitimate pivot strategy (i.e. temporary competitive rebuild while waiting for Lewis and Lee), but it really doesn’t impart that much leverage in the discussions until maybe the SS market gets near the end.

6. Oh, also, forget Rodon - DeGrom blew that possibility right out of the water,

 

[chpettit19]

Should the Twins give Boras and Correa a deadline? Absolutely not. The Twins aren't a team that can get into a bidding war for someone like Correa so Boras isn't concerned about them and their deadline (unless Correa has told him he only wants to play in MN, and I find that impossible to believe).

Should the Twins be cognizant of how the market is moving and have their own internal triggers that should cause them to take different paths and be more urgent with other plans than Correa if he's dragging things out? Absolutely.

When I hear "deadline" I think date. There's no sense in putting a date on things in the MLB offseason. It's just too long with no league determined deadlines. Putting handcuffs on yourself doesn't make sense to me. Either you pick a date that's too far out and you lose out on everyone else you may have wanted to honor that date with Correa, or you pick a date that's too soon and you lose out on your number 1 target because you got too anxious. It's just about reading the market and how it's playing out, not "deadlines."

Correa won't sign until Judge does unless someone meets his top number right now, and that's not likely. Bogaerts likely won't sign until Correa does (Boras also represents him and will have a great read on the market and how well he can play Bogaert's deal off of Correa's deal) unless someone meets his top number right now, and that's not likely.

The Twins need to have a read on the price ranges for everyone they're interested in. They should be able to sign some of the "lesser" pieces like their 2nd catcher or bullpen arms without needing Correa locked in. They should know where their budget is and how the pieces can all fit in. If they can get Narvaez (as an example) for between 4 and 6 million that's a deal they should be working on simultaneously to the Correa talks. Because Bogaerts is likely their 2nd choice at SS and he shares an agent with Correa the Twins should have a fallback there and they shouldn't be waiting on any of their other deals unless they're planning to sign multiple big money, long-term deals. And I highly doubt that.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The problem with ultimatums is that you are attempting to close the door.  In what world would the Twins close the door on Correa?

You close the door by signing another big 4 shortstop.  I find it extremely hard to believe that if the Twins sign a stopgap to a 1 year contract and Correa comes back a week later saying he wants to sign with the Twins, the Twins would say no.

Signing Correa is not going to stop them from going after other players.  They could sign Rodon and still have Correa if he wanted to come here.

The market just needs to play out.  Don't handicap yourself by making threats you won't back up.

It's not about making threats they can't back up, if they want one of the shortstops, but if Correa plans on being the last of them to sign, the Twins 100% have to tell Correa and Boras that it's just not going to work out. They can't let all the other shortstops pass them by, crossing their fingers that Correa will choose them only to be left empty handed.

If they can get Bogaerts here for closer to the Story/Semien money, do it and be happy with the signing.

[Brandon]

The Twins need to go get a C regardless and an OF so that can be done at affordable prices so the Twins can work on other goals while waiting for Correa to resign.  There are not many alternatives solutions at other positions that the Twins will be in on.  I do believe the Rodon situation is going to cost too much at this point.  Too many teams with him as a big need have clear books or crazy rich owners. (Baltimore and New York Mets & Yankees) Plus around another 8 or 9 teams … at least we can afford a good bullpen arm in FA this year Even with a SS signing.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's not about making threats they can't back up, if they want one of the shortstops, but Correa plans on being the last of them to sign, the Twins 100% have to tell Correa and Boras that it's just not going to work out. They can't let all the other shortstops pass them by, crossing their fingers that Correa will choose them only to be left empty handed.

I think Bogaerts is the only other likely SS option that would be a real upgrade on Farmer, and he's represented by Boras as well. I don't think the Twins have any shot at all of signing Turner, and Swanson seems like a distant 3rd on their list. Dealing with Boras on both Correa and Bogaerts should give them a pretty good idea of how each other markets are moving and help them avoid missing on both if either can be signed in the Twins price range.

[Blyleven2011]

The deadline should have been yesterday if you want a plan A ... 

But seriously the winter meetings should be the deadline for signing Correa to get the ball rolling on plan A , boras will be there and most likely Correa will be to ( somewhere ) ... 

Get it done or move on after winter meetings  ...

I'm not really interested in the free agents because of the high dollars they receive  , I like watching our own prospects develope  ...

Go twins ...

[Doctor Gast]

If most of our FA $ is tied up in Correa then I say we need to set a deadline. If not then we need to also seriouly go after FA Contreras but I don't hear any talk there.

Most odds out there have us very low in signing Correa. I don't think it's out of the question to offer Correa a very reasonable contract and give him reasonable time to think it over.

A contract I have in mind is a 8yrs./ $320MM. That's a lot right? It's high because it's full of incentives. Like winning a WS, league championship, post season games, division championship, # of games at SS, # of games played and winning a GG. If he accomplish all this then he has earned his money. If he wants a 2 yr. opt out, fine, maybe have last year buyout. All this with a $20MM base AAV.

The 8yr/ $320MM should satisfy Correa & Boras egos and with the incentives helps to safe guard the team. If they refuse then walk away pursue our secondary options.

[Squirrel]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

but Correa plans on being the last of them to sign,

Um ... was this actually stated? That he plans to sign last of them all? Or did you mean to put an if in there. Being the last to sign last year didn't do him any favors. Can't imagine he'd want his agent to play that game which is why the first agent is gone.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If most of our FA $ is tied up in Correa then I say we need to set a deadline. If not then we need to also seriouly go after FA Contreras but I don't hear any talk there.

Most odds out there have us very low in signing Correa. I don't think it's out of the question to offer Correa a very reasonable contract and give him reasonable time to think it over.

A contract I have in mind is a 8yrs./ $360MM. That's a lot right? It's high because it's full of incentives. Like winning a WS, league championship, post season games, division championship, # of games at SS, # of games played and winning a GG. If he accomplish all this then he has earned his money. If he wants a 2 yr. opt out, fine, maybe have last year buyout. All this with a $20MM base AAV.

The 8yr/ $360MM should satisfy Correa & Boras egos and with the incentives helps to safe guard the team. If they refuse then walk away pursue our secondary options.

I think that offer has Boras telling the team to look for other options. Now that's totally fine if you don't really want Correa/aren't that serious about signing him. But if the Twins are serious about signing Correa you're going to need to raise that AAV by at least 10. 8/160 (that's the deal you really offered) wouldn't satisfy Correa, Boras, or the MLBPA. Half of a contract for the best SS in the game being tied to incentives isn't something anyone other than the Twins would be happy with.

[nicksaviking]

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Um ... was this actually stated? That he plans to sign last of them all? Or did you mean to put an if in there. Being the last to sign last year didn't do him any favors. Can't imagine he'd want his agent to play that game which is why the first agent is gone.

Nope, it was not stated. I did miss the 'if' and the post has been edited accordingly. Some have thought he would be the last to sign, La Velle being one of them, but I think it was all just presumption because Boras clients often (but not always) do this. 

After last year's disappointing off season for Correa, I'm of the mind that he might not want to drag it out again.

[Nine of twelve]

Everyone in the world knows that the Twins will not match the highest offer. So it's not in the best interest of the team to wait a long time to see what the other offers are. About the only leverage the Twins have would be Correa's desire to play here (depending, of course, on whether that is the case and how strong and sincere that desire is). I don't know what the best way is to exploit that but making offers to other FA SSs early in the process might tip the playing field in the team's favor at least a little.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

It's not about making threats they can't back up, if they want one of the shortstops, but if Correa plans on being the last of them to sign, the Twins 100% have to tell Correa and Boras that it's just not going to work out. They can't let all the other shortstops pass them by, crossing their fingers that Correa will choose them only to be left empty handed.

If they can get Bogaerts here for closer to the Story/Semien money, do it and be happy with the signing.

May be semantics here, but that is not setting a deadline, that is moving forward.  If they could sign Bogaerts today (for right contract), and Correa is still undecided, they would sign Bogaerts.  Nothing to do with a deadline.

Boras takes the approach that the market is irrelevant.  He knows what he wants his players to get and he usually gets it somewhere.  Very rarely do things not work out for him.

If it is Correa or nothing, the Twins may have already tipped their hand.  But they will not go back to Boras and say "too late"

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

May be semantics here, but that is not setting a deadline, that is moving forward.  If they could sign Bogaerts today (for right contract), and Correa is still undecided, they would sign Bogaerts.  Nothing to do with a deadline.

Boras takes the approach that the market is irrelevant.  He knows what he wants his players to get and he usually gets it somewhere.  Very rarely do things not work out for him.

If it is Correa or nothing, the Twins may have already tipped their hand.  But they will not go back to Boras and say "too late"

I suppose it is semantics. My deadline would be, "whenever there are only two of the four free agent shortstops left". If not earlier.

Personally, if you could get Bogaerts for closer to the Story/Semian contracts, I'd be more than happy to make that deal instead. He has the best K and BB numbers of the four, which I think are traits most likely to age best.

[LA VIkes Fan]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The problem with ultimatums is that you are attempting to close the door.  In what world would the Twins close the door on Correa?

You close the door by signing another big 4 shortstop.  I find it extremely hard to believe that if the Twins sign a stopgap to a 1 year contract and Correa comes back a week later saying he wants to sign with the Twins, the Twins would say no.

Signing Correa is not going to stop them from going after other players.  They could sign Rodon and still have Correa if he wanted to come here.

The market just needs to play out.  Don't handicap yourself by making threats you won't back up.

Agreed. Part of Correa's timing may have to do with him watching what else the Twins do in the offseason. He's going to get paid wherever he goes. He may like the Twins, but why go back to a 78 win team that won 73 the year before unless you think they've made themselves better? I think a part of what's keeping things slow is Correa waiting to see what else the team does. They've made room at 3B for his protégé Miranda. Can they sign a Rodon or trade for a Lopez type? Is there another Catcher or some relief help on the way?

Correa will be signing a 7-10 year deal. Even with opt outs, he's probably committed to a team for at least the next 3-4 years. The next 3-4 years are his prime years as a player. He's going to want to know that he's going to a team that will be a contender more often than not. If I'm him, I would wait to see what the Twins do before deciding even if I'm interested.  If the Twins can't wait and pivot to Bogaerts, so be it. Better than signing a long term deal with a team that doesn't put the assets around him to contend and playing out multiple 70-80 win seasons. I think the better strategy is for the Twins to sign or trade for that needed Starting Pitcher first as part of convincing Correa or Bogaerts to seriously consider coming to Minnesota.   

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think that offer has Boras telling the team to look for other options. Now that's totally fine if you don't really want Correa/aren't that serious about signing him. But if the Twins are serious about signing Correa you're going to need to raise that AAV by at least 10. 8/160 (that's the deal you really offered) wouldn't satisfy Correa, Boras, or the MLBPA. Half of a contract for the best SS in the game being tied to incentives isn't something anyone other than the Twins would be happy with.

I'm just brainstorming, normally when people look at a contract they look at the top end of 8yrs./ $360MM. He'll only get 8/ 160 if he gets in a serious accident tomorrow & never plays a single game again in the MLB. In which he comes out ahead.

[Seth Stohs]

I suppose they could tell Boras that on December 15th, the Twins are moving on from Carlos Correa. 

Then they can call up Boras and say, "Hey Scott, love to get your thoughts on Xander Bogaerts. Can we get him to Minnesota?"

 

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm just brainstorming, normally when people look at a contract they look at the top end of 8yrs./ $360MM. He'll only get 8/ 160 if he gets in a serious accident tomorrow & never plays a single game again in the MLB. In which he comes out ahead.

I got ya. I'm just saying that a player of his stature isn't taking a deal with half of it being tied to incentives. A player of his caliber likely isn't taking any incentives at all. Buyouts and opt outs are one thing, but incentives, especially those tied to team performance like playoff wins and world series, aren't something guys like Correa take.

[bap3141]

They likely do have a deadline, or, hopefully, back up plans in place that they've duscussed internally. I don't see a stated deadline working out in the Twins' favor.  Especially since they already know that they'll have to get cteative to sign him and with other teams interested already (soon to be more once Judge signs).  If they insist on a deadline, they'll have to put an offer out there that he can't refuse; which equates to overpaying. 

 

I know the author is speculating, but I think that if the Twins feel like they're in that situation in which they need to set a deadline, they might as well pivot now and begin talks with Bogaerts.

 

What seems to be moving in their favor, and I can only speculate based on the tea leaves left by the various articles that I have read, is that teams once floated as highly intetested (i.e. the Cubs) seem to be shifting to other shortstops. (Again, if the reports are to be believed.) This could indicate that they know that the Twins are serious about resigning him and they'd rather move on than get in a bidding war. Or it could be that they don't want to wait and have pivotted already (meaning they're ahead of the Twins on that front). It could also mean that they want to get in front of the post-Judge market and sign players before teams miss out on Judge and look to Correa.

 

All I know is how I'll feel as a Twins fan if they're left out in the rain on adding a key piece -- hint: frustrated and disappointed.  I'm sure management knows that this sentiment likely represents the majority if the fanbase and will act accordingly. You can't rebrand, open a bunch of cap space, not sign a star and expect fans to show up. J.A. Happ, Dylan Bundy, Matt Shoemacher, Chris Archer and Kurt Suzuki type aquisitons won't be enough. Not this time.

 

[bap3141]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I suppose it is semantics. My deadline would be, "whenever there are only two of the four free agent shortstops left". If not earlier.

I could be wrong, but I don't see that sort of approach working out. Once Correa signs, they SS market will move fast.  If Bogaerts isn't already gone by then.  And the teams that are negotiating with Dansby, Xander, and Trea are likely to have the edge.   The Twins would be in a position of reacting -- and they'd likely need to overpay to get the player and agent's attention.  So, if they're thinking of getting involved once there are two left on the market, I think they've already missed the boat.

 

Plus, if they're going to overpay, they might as well do it with Correa rather than Dansby or Xander (who I think might even go before Correa).  The only scenario in which I see two left are: Dansby and Correa (if he's playing the waiting game) or Dansby and Trea (once Correa has signed elsewhere) and it seems like the Twins and Trea are out on each other.   And I would honestly rather they didn't overpay on Dansby, or even sign him at all if they miss out on the other three.  Rather have a guy like Rodon and a bat with Andrus in that case than Dansby.  

 

But, again, I may have it all wrong.  

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, bap3141 said:

I could be wrong, but I don't see that sort of approach working out. Once Correa signs, they SS market will move fast.  If Bogaerts isn't already gone by then.  And the teams that are negotiating with Dansby, Xander, and Trea are likely to have the edge.   The Twins would be in a position of reacting -- and they'd likely need to overpay to get the player and agent's attention.  So, if they're thinking of getting involved once there are two left on the market, I think they've already missed the boat.

 

Plus, if they're going to overpay, they might as well do it with Correa rather than Dansby or Xander (who I think might even go before Correa).  The only scenario in which I see two left are: Dansby and Correa (if he's playing the waiting game) or Dansby and Trea (once Correa has signed elsewhere) and it seems like the Twins and Trea are out on each other.  

 

But, again, I may have it all wrong.  

This was with the presumption that Correa would sign last, leaving the Twins no fallback options on the free agent market.

[ashbury]

Levine: "Mr Boras we need a decision from your client, so we're preparing our final, best offer for his consideration. Otherwise, regrettably, we'll have to turn to our second choice."

Boras: "Which one are you speaking of? Correa, then Bogaerts? Or Bogaerts, then Correa?"