South Dakota Tom’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[South Dakota Tom]

I've made pleas (well, at least loud suggestions) that the Twins can perform best by snatching the second-tier free agents, starting about a week from now and on through January.  Once the top FAs are gobbled up by big spenders, there are relative bargains available.  Those remaining jobless will start to look to solidify the available offers and choose among them.  No one (short of a handful) want to begin February without a pretty clear view of where he will play.  Once half the teams in the league have hit their theoretical ceilings on payroll, the remaining teams compete against fewer suitors.

On the other hand, there comes a point pretty early in the process where all the best players are gone.  A team resorts to second-tier FAs or gutting the farm system in order to make substantial improvements (at least from outside the organization).  A dozen or so teams must always swim in this end of the pool - counting on internal improvement, player development, and trades of even moderately-priced veterans in order to continue to stock the minors until a group of them simultaneously catches fire and opens a window of contention.

The Twins can continue, and probably with moderate success, to exist in that middle strata.  Wait until the biggest markets buy up the best players and hit their spending caps, and then use their now-relatively-grand spending power to elbow out the also-rans for the pick of the remaining crop.  If a team is uber-successful in identifying the best of that second tier of talent, bargains are out there, and a combination of bargains can set a team up for a season or two.

With the needs of the team this year, however, my tune is changing.  The players we need don't reside completely in the aftermath of the early shakeout period.  We need a high-end RH hitting outfielder.  We need a job-sharing catcher.  We need one more frontline starter.  We need at least one (more) superstar in the field to plug into the top three in the daily lineup. 

My path to that end is riskier, certainly, than the middle-of-the-pack strategy outlined above.  It starts with Rodon.  4 yrs/$110M.  If we can get Correa for 10/$300, that's next.  If not, pivot to Xander at 6/$175.  That's adding $60M/yr already, and I want Haniger and Vasquez, which means I'm trading Kepler (he's the most expensive of the surplus of LH OFs) and Arraez (don't trust his knees or defense) to gain a couple more high-upside arms to help bolster the starting pitching pipeline.  I assume we'd still be adding a total of $70M to the payroll, pushing $160M. 

And I'm (I know, I know) bringing back an old friend - highly motivated on a 1-year prove-it deal.

I like the lineup - Buxton, Polanco, Bogaerts, Haniger, Kiriloff, Miranda, Larnach, Sano, Vasquez/Jeffers.

I like the rotation - Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan (with Ober, Winder, SWR, Paddack, Varland, Enlow, Catarino, Balazovic behind) and some from that group as middle relief.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M)
• 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M)
• SS: Xander Bogaerts ($29.00M)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Mitch Haniger ($12.00M)
• DH: Miguel Sano ($3.0M)
• 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• Utility: Kyle Farmer ($4.65M)
• Backup C: Christian Vasquez ($8.0M)
• SP1: Carlos Rodon ($27.5M)
• SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.0M)
• SP3: Tyler Mahle ($8.0M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M)
• SP5: Kenta Maeda ($9.0M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.70M)
• RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M)
• RP: Emilio Pagan ($4.0M)

Payroll is 8.71% over budget

[stringer bell]

I'm not opposed to trading Arraez, but I think the Twins should get major league talent back for him, not just prospects. I wonder if there is a fit for Kepler to be traded for a similar player who hits right handed, putting that guy in the utility OF spot in place of Garlick, who is limited defensively as well as hitting against same handed pitchers.

[Riverbrian]

What did we get in return for Arraez and Kepler?