Reconsidering Carlos Correa

[weitz41]

If this was settled by the end on the winter meetings I'd be thrilled. I'm on the fence on Correa. Is he the best shortstop I've seen play as a Twin. Yes, definitely.  Is that worth 25% of the team's payroll..Is $40 mil of Correa win more games than $25 mil of Bogarts and $15 mil of Haniger? (the #'s are just guesses) I'd pass on Correa only if I had another one of the other 4 SS ready to sign. I don't want to rely of Lewis to be our SS till he earns it. The waiting till mid-January for an answer is the part that bothers me the most.

[Linus]

I loved watching Correa play especially in the field. If I thought they would sign Correa and still add a power right handed outfielder, a decent catcher, a bullpen arm and maybe another starter I would be ecstatic. I don’t believe they will do that. So I’m now ready to let him walk and use the money to get the best possible upgrades at those other spots. You will have a better team and win more games. 

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Squirrel said:

And Minnesota was sub .500 the past 7 out of 11, st. Louis had zero sub .500 seasons the past 11 seasons, so I’d say what I said earlier is true … both Boston and St. Louis win more than they lose, giving their fanbase more hope and willingness, and you don’t think it’s a correlation to attendance? You also agreed that those teams do more by way of signing the big names more often. So, what exactly is in your 5 yr plan to woo fans into spending money to come to games in Minnesota … continue to wait on prospects, not spend on a big name SS, have another 4 seasons of sub .500 seasons to woo the fans back to the stadium? After buying a stadium in 2010 on the promise that that would afford them the ability to win isn’t winning over fans when the winning isn’t there. Seems like we are in a vicious cycle here with no end in sight. Maybe it’s time for the owner and the FO to put their money where their mouths are to start building back the trust they’ve lost in the promises they haven’t kept. Granted, I’m still here following the team, but I’m not spending the money I used and am able to, on these broken promises. For me, signing Correa would be a huge step in the right direction. Going with Farmer and the hope of Lewis won’t instill much of anything and would be a continued slap and not a kiss.

Whew. This tangent started with my cautioning against expecting miracles in the next broadcast contract. I really didn't intend a threadjack.

My own 5-year plan? It probably would be centered on 1) fun, and 2) a revamped revenue approach. The fun part might have a Mike Veeck flavor, although haircuts in the stands might be going too far - things like moving 100 fans in the cheap seats up to premium ones, every game, and I'm sure a Mike Veeck could suggest much more that that. The revenue part would be based on repricing some significant portion of the seats to aim for sell-out crowds (eventually) for 81 home games a year, i.e. 3 million annual attendance. Both these focuses overlap, because part of the fun of a ballgame is a large and engaged crowd.  Industries in the travel/hospitality sector have over the years adopted so-called "revenue management" processes that recognize that unsold "seats" (on a plane, in a hotel room, ...) can't be returned to inventory and thus every dollar you can sell the last ones for is incremental revenue.  MLB has dipped a toe in this with their "value pricing" of charging more for games against the Yankees and other key opponents; this should be expanded and I think if done right buying tickets could become fun in the same way that online gaming is fun for sports fans and StubHub is fun for bargain hunters.  "I got 10 tickets for $8, get in the car!"  Fill up the stands any way you can, and then when you have a winning season you can play with seat prices (carefully) and reap the profit rewards. The reason a five-year plan is necessary is that the changeover could cost $10M or so in total revenue to begin with, until the stands are actually full and then there begins to be competition for coveted seats.  Again, I'm not sure this is the thread to try to do a deep dive on this.

And are these details relevant, for me, to the Twins going big and signing Correa now? Not really, although the question would make more sense if coupled with the above, as signing a big time player is one part of the "fun" dimension.  I think I'm already on record as wanting a big signing, and Correa is a top candidate for that - something that eclipses Josh Donaldson's total contract value, or whoever is the current Twins record holder. But willy-nilly signing of Correa or whomever by itself won't move the needle on attendance or eventually the broadcast contract - evidence being, attendance in 2022 was a million shy of satisfactory.

I'm just saying not to sign Correa based on some magical new revenue that will appear down the road, because I don't think that's going to happen without conscious "game changer" effort.

[MABB1959]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The incremental money comes from cable television.  The Twins are last in that revenue stream among the markets that have all four major sports.  And it's not even close.  You can build all the stadiums and sell all the jerseys you want but until you increase the cable revenue you're going nowhere fast.  And let's be honest, for that to happen it's gonna come out of YOUR pocket.  Interested?

Hard to make any money from satellite or cable when it is unavailable to many.  I dropped DishTV this year and went to YouTube TV.   Don’t miss DISH at all.  It is pathetic that we cannot watch many games.   MLB is all about money.  But it is also the ridiculous player salaries.  Going to a game is very expensive. Sadly families cannot afford to go to many games.  Ticket costs and food costs ($6 for a soda) are insane.  

[dxpavelka]

50 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Hard to make any money from satellite or cable when it is unavailable to many.  I dropped DishTV this year and went to YouTube TV.   Don’t miss DISH at all.  It is pathetic that we cannot watch many games.   MLB is all about money.  But it is also the ridiculous player salaries.  Going to a game is very expensive. Sadly families cannot afford to go to many games.  Ticket costs and food costs ($6 for a soda) are insane.  

Guessing MLB is not the only one all about money.  Guessing your switch from Dish to YouTube might have had something to do with money.  Player salaries ain't gonna change.  Going to a game ain't gonna get cheaper.  Also sounds like games are available to you but you've made a decision to go with an entertainment system that makes them not so.  That may change at some point but that change will likely come with a cost.  Welcome to the real world.

[gman]

I don't know that I would want to fill 1 spot with $40mil and leave the other 8 spots in the lineup as unknowns. True 1 spot filled is better than none, but usually you sign that $40mil player when most of your other spots are known and have been performing for a number of years. If we were in the playoffs without Correa and chased him down to get a push over the top that's one thing. Signing a player for $40 mil when you have 8 unknowns due to health, inexperience or both doesn't get us very far. I would like to see the $40 mil spread among 3-4 players instead.

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Guessing MLB is not the only one all about money.  Guessing your switch from Dish to YouTube might have had something to do with money.  Player salaries ain't gonna change.  Going to a game ain't gonna get cheaper.  Also sounds like games are available to you but you've made a decision to go with an entertainment system that makes them not so.  That may change at some point but that change will likely come with a cost.  Welcome to the real world.

I switched because of Dish dropping Ballys.  Went to one game to see Correa and he didn’t play.  Tickets were over $200.  Parking and food was close to $100.  No games available in my area.  Once they are streaming I will most likely pay for it.  It’s more about making baseball unavailable by satellite and the more than outrageous cost of attending.   Welcome to the real world was very snarky.  

[Linus]

45 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I switched because of Dish dropping Ballys.  Went to one game to see Correa and he didn’t play.  Tickets were over $200.  Parking and food was close to $100.  No games available in my area.  Once they are streaming I will most likely pay for it.  It’s more about making baseball unavailable by satellite and the more than outrageous cost of attending.   Welcome to the real world was very snarky.  

I think this is real. MLB seems to purposefully alienate fans at times. My perception is the vibe about the Twins isn’t great and it seems to be a surprise to Twins brass. 

[Doctor Gast]

On 12/3/2022 at 8:24 PM, DocBauer said:

From a "Doc" to the "Doctor", I understand the misgivings of so much $ tied in to one player, Correa in this instance. I would be lying if such a deal didn't concern me, as well as the "potential" of spending that money elsewhere. I think one question to be asked is "would they spend that $ wisely? Now, that's not an indictment of the FO. I think they've made a ton of good moves. I also think they've missed the boat more than once and ended up slashing in the bay. So there is the factor of "can" they spend the $ better vs "will" they? Again, not starting up a debate or indictment.

CAN they sign Correa? Yes. I think the odds are above the 10-15% thoughts I've heard. I really like the variety of offers they have started with. Makes tremendous sense for both sides. It actually gives Correa and Boras a lot of power down the line in a couple of years. I think the proposal Nick laid out in a recent article is probably closer to a "get it done" scenario that i think Correa and Boras, frankly, would be FOOLISH not to grab a pen and sign immediatley, if not sooner! It has all the guaranteed $ they could possibly want and STILL gives them options. Personally, i think the reality of such a deal might be a bit of a compromise between the Twins initial offer and the proposed Nick offer. And later years, hus overall $ to the payroll decreases. But I'm getting a little off point here.

Even with the Correa signing, the team still has needs, but still has $ to spend for a couple more smart adds to the team. He doesn't completely handcuff the team. 

I really want Correa for a lot of reasons, and not just for what he brings to the field and the plate for the next, at least, 4-7yrs. I want his leadership. He already began running some drills and practices, reportedly, almost as a coach last year. He, reportedly, wants to take that a step forward in 2023. I love his experience, leadership, and drive. My goodness, he's opened his door to take Miranda under his wing to work with him and develop him this offseason.

I want Correa to sell jerseys and put fans in the seat for a team that's "going for it".

I want Correa to show the rest of the baseball world that Minnesota, and it's tremendous park and fans, is actually a destination place to be taken seriously.

I believe he can help do those things.

From what I've seen of Lewis at the ML level, ST games, and hilights from the minors, I have little doubt he'd be a good, solid, ML SS with some great offense, and the potential to be better. Even still, why pass on adding a great player when you can? I commented a year or so ago about Lewis taking all of his talent and potential and playing 3B, or the OF, and got pushback from others as that would be a "waste of his talent". And I never understood that thought process. Was it a waste for the Yankees to put Rodriguez at 3B? Was it a waste for the Angels to play Erstad at CF AND 1B while in his prime? Do the Dogers "waste" good players because they can plug them in at different positions?

Lewis could end up being one of the best 3B or 2B in all of MLB. That's not a "waste". How about, a year or so from now, maybe Lee takes over 3B, Correa at SS, Lewis at 2B, and Miranda back to 1B again, possibly sharing time with AK and Arraez, while ALL of these young talents could cover other positions as needed. And then, what about Julien? (Notice I haven't even mentioned Polanco)? Well, there are trade possibilities. Maybe Julien ends up at 2B and Lewis becomes a tremendous OF? And while I still believe Martin ends up in the OF, maybe he becomes a super-utility type who covers the OF as well as 3B/2B and emergency SS?

I think Lee and Lewis and Miranda are quality. I think Julien might be. I'm finally starting to believe Martin might be, though not as a SS. And I'm not even speaking about AK, Larnach, and Wallner right now as I'm just focused on the infield. There is a real chance, not an "inconceivable" one......CUE TO ASH FOR THE OBLIGATORY PRINCESS BRIDE GIF......that some point in 2023 and/or early 2024 that the Twins, position player wise, have a "how do we fit all of this talent on to one roster" situation.

Man, that would be an outstanding "problem" to have. 

I won't cry if Correa goes elsewhere. The sky won't fall. There's a lot of young talent already here and on the way. But you never pass up difference makers to your team, and your organization, if you can do so. But I believe if the Twins CAN/DO bring back Correa, he does a lot more than raising the floor of the infield. I think he changes the look, feel, product, and perception of the Twins.

All is not lost without him, by any means. I understand misgivings. I just think time and opportunity, as well as manipulaton of the roster and payroll, has presented the Twins with a special opportunity to make a statement. I'd hate to lose out on that opportunity. 

Thanks Doc, to reinstate my position. I'm a really big Correa supporter. I love to watch him play SS, I love what he brings to the table, I'd love Correa to be a Twin . I'm OK with his health risks, I'm OK with his projected price tag, although I'm a little uneasy with some #s that are thrown out there.

I'm OK with Lewis being utility, even though it means delaying his full potential. When Lewis was still in AA, I've stated that Lewis profiles more as a CF than a SS. Especially when Hunter was mentoring him & at that time we had a desperate need for a Buxton sub. But his knee surgery changed all that, I freaked out when they put him in CF this year and it took only a few short minutes for my fears came to fruition. Now Lewis has had his 2nd operation and now they say if we sign Correa, they'll put Lewis in CF. Now that's really freaks me out, putting our home grown MVP caliber prospect at risk of completely losing him.

Now I'm OK with losing some of our secondary options with a delayed Correa signing. But we need a big upgrade at catching and most likely they'd want to spend that extra unsigned Correa $. Contreras is the only uprade in FA and most likely he'll be gone by the time the waiting game is over. Even a little more than 15% chance aren't very good odds. '21 they played the waiting game & nobody was left so they picked up Happ, Shoemaker & Colume' the last minute. Many bought into the hype of this would our best rotation since Santana/ Liriano, I did not. They didn't fit, I don't want this to happen again.

So you see Doc, it's not one thing but an accumultive red flags, next one worse than the previous. When I say it  pains me to reconsider Correa, I'm sincere. If they can reassure me that they won't put Lewis in CF and they upgrade at catcher, I'm back on the band wagon.   

[Squirrel]

On 12/5/2022 at 9:24 AM, Doctor Gast said:

If they can reassure me that they won't put Lewis in CF

I honestly don't get this take. If he's an injury risk out there, he's an injury risk anywhere. I don't think CF is higher risk in that regard.