Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

The Argument for Trading Jorge Polanco


Recommended Posts

Twins Daily Contributor

Carlos Correa and the star pitchers have earned their proper attention, but what about the periphery players? Today, we will examine why the Twins might want to trade Jorge Polanco.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

As the longest-tenured Twins playerhe rubbed elbows with Kendrys Morales while sipping his cup of coffee in 2014Polanco’s presence provided continuity during the great team overhaul following 2016. Rather than start from scratch, the new decision-makers earmarked Polanco (and Max Kepler) as answers to the problem, not sources of the malady, and both players signed extensions before the 2019 season.

Polanco represents the best and worst of Twins position players under the Falvey regime: a skilled OBP and power threat with a worrisome lack of defensive ability whose nagging injuries have capped his upside. His .272/.339/.455 slash line since 2018 makes him the envy of the middle infield ball—those players have hit for a collective .257/.318/.409 over the same period. Yet, despite a move to an easier position, defensive stats remain unamused with Polanco’s glove, constantly ranking him as a poor defender. 

Looking around the league, that style of position-less player has fallen out of fashion; the Houston Astros employ a litany of two-way stars who can hit as well as they can field, and the Dodgers only sign a player if they can catch, man shortstop, glide in the outfield, and announce in a pinch if Joe Davis catches a cold. Yordan Álvarez is an exception, but teams tend to ignore fielding gaffes when you’re hitting at a near Bondsian level. 

Despite the defensive issues, Polanco’s contract helps buoy his value. That deal from 2019 remains in effect, and assuming that a team will jump at the opportunity to pick up his $12 million club option for 2025, he is effectively good for three years of control at $30 million. That’s an attractive price tag. A team like like the Cubs might happily deal quality prospects or equivalent major-league talent to net Polanco’s offensive consistency for just $10 million a season.

In what we could call “The Edouard Julien Influence,” the Twins may already have a major-league-caliber starter waiting in the wings. Julien spent his 2022 regular season smoking pitches at AA before finding an extra gear in the Arizona Fall League, ramping up his batting to lead the whole darn league in OPS (1.249). Yes, that number is correct. He also stole six bases without a misstep, just for giggles. Minnesota understood his value and added him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from other conniving teams in the Rule-5 draft. Julien’s glove is as detrimental as Polanco’s, which negates the previous defensive argument, but his bat has a good chance at reaching the same plateau.

Or, just as well, the Twins could move Luis Arraez back to his original position, ending the hilarious adventures in having a 5' 10" first baseman with 14 career home runs.

The savings matter. Re-signing Carlos Correa—beyond being the right move—eats up a significant portion of the theoretical payroll cap, enough to make squeezing in a Carlos Rodón type impossible. If the Twins want both a star shortstop and a starting pitcher better than Matt Shoemaker, they need to diligently purge their books, and the Gio Urshela trade does not create enough leeway.

It would be a tough move; few enjoy seeing an old friend go, especially when they are still productive, but Minnesota needs to engage in ruthless efficiency if they want to move forward into the highest tier of teams.


View full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My argument for trading Jorge has been he is at the peak of his trade value right now.  Still only 29, 3 years of control relatively cheap, etc..  All the reasons we would want to keep him are all the reasons he would bring something of value in trade.  And the young guys behind him are even cheaper with even more years of control.  My gut tells me his body is only going to need more time to heal when hurt, and the hurts are going to keep coming.  Either commit to him for his career, or trade him while his value is highest.  In my extremely humble opinion, the latter makes the most sense.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a big no on trading Polanco. The argument here seems to be "he's not very good defensively, has a lot of trade value because his bat and contract, and we have Julien waiting in the wings". But Julien is a worse defender and untested as a major league hitter, so what are we really doing here? A healthy Polanco isn't bad defensively at 2B and is certainly good enough to get by. (and let's be clear, with his terrible knees I wouldn't expect Arraez to hold up well at 2B for a full season either)

But the real issue is, we have a superior hitter with a team-friendly contract who is already tested at the MLB level and has performed at an all-star level. If he was going into his final season, maybe it's worth considering, but we've got Polanco for 3 more years if we want him at well below market rate. He makes this lineup significantly better and gives us financial flexibility to add more pieces without having to hope an untested player will come through.

This team is too talented to trade away a player like Polanco. We're not in rebuild mode and dealing Polanco would be waving the white flag. Might as well deal every veteran at that point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the return is right I'd trade him. I'm in the boat that you do whatever it takes to make your team better. Is the reason to trade him to save money? or with that saved money you can add a Rodon and Correa? Do you weaken the team at 2nd base by doing so or did you already solve that issue by adding Farmer? If Polanco is in the trade arena you have to move Kepler first or maybe package them together. Do they bring back a young stud catcher while freeing up the cash to add Correa and Rodon? Then I say, do it now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really it’s just a question of when, not if. And that’s no knock on Polanco - he’s a really good professional baseball player and absolutely one of my favourite Twins. But the facts are:

a) He plays on a mid-market, budget-constrained team that will need cash to fill in the holes via FAs;

b) The Twins top three prospects (Lewis, Lee and Julien) plus two top youngsters already on the club (Arraez and Miranda) are all infielders needing a place to play - and this traffic jam is compounded by signing Farmer and if we resign CC; and 

c) His performance - perhaps all or mostly all due to health - is clearly starting to diminish and it’s unclear if that slide can be turned around.

Having said all that, Polanco clearly has chemistry with CC (which may help on the margin in resigning CC), he has been really good in the field and at the plate when healthy, the young guys still need seasoning/proving/healing, and he’s a true pro with veteran presence who’s not that expensive.

Prediction: Polanco is not traded in the off-season. The Twins resign CC and give Polanco every chance to get back into form. However, if the Twins are not definitively in the hunt by the trade deadline (almost regardless of how Polanco is performing), the prospects are knocking hard at the door, or he’s not very good anymore, he gets moved in the summer.

The chances of Polanco being with the Twins in ‘24 are slim. The sad truth is that the old young core we were hoping would lead us to a WS a couple of years ago - Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, and, even, Garver - are now, rightfully, having to give way to a new, deeper, and possibly/hopefully better young core. Kepler and Polanco are the last two and both, unless something extraordinary happens, will be gone before next season,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A no on a trade ...

We already have lost 2 of the better hitters in the lineup from 2022 , urshela and Correa , ( Correa could resign is a big ??? ) ...

Polanco had a down year and yes it could have been due from injuries that he played through ....

I'll take Polanco's bat in the lineup everyday if possible , he plays well , his defense deficiencies is his throwing errors  ...

trade Kepler  , defense  is good but lack of adjustments  in hitting and Rocco batting him 4th is not a fit for the lineup ...

KEEP POLANCO AS HE IS A PROVEN TALENT  and cheap enough for the twins compared to other second basemens salaries ...

If they haven't traded Kepler by now , why should they trade Polanco , Polanco's bat is more important in the lineup ...

The twins have extended 3 players and only Polanco was worthy of it ...

I'm sure Correa is telling the front office not to trade Polanco like he did at the deadline with Miranda ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RV78 brought up very smart point and a great reason to trade Polanco now.  After signing Correa (which, according to many analysts on MLB Radio, will happen soon), Farmer moves to second.  Julien would be his backup and use this opportunity to improve his defense.  Hopefully, the $$$ savings from trading Polanco will open the door for the additional signing of either Rodon or Wilson Contreras.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a Polanco fan, but I'm 100% on board trading him.  You can add Gordon to the long list of players that could play 2B in the absence of Jorge.  I'd trade Polanco and Ober to the Brewers for Brandon Woodruff to get that true #1 at the top of our rotation.  The Brewers just traded Wong.  They could use a 2B-man with some pop.  The numbers work for a BTV trade.  This would be a trade for future rotation stability, not just for 2023.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a firm no. For what we pay him he is probably the best value for a proven, high quality player. I don't see a bad infielder, but rather a slightly above average fielder, regardless what advanced stats say. He has hit since the day he came up. Last year he played hurt from mid may on. IMO no team would provide the talent back in a trade. Arraez did fine 1B and can't play the field every day. Julien was great with the bat at AA, but lets see what he does AAA. Gordon is better off used in the OF or utility, Farmer doesnt and hasn't hit righties enough to start there. Lewis is still a question and Lee have a lot to prove. And lets face the fact that trading him wouldn't be enough of a savings to sign a FA top starter(even if they could talk one into playing here).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you are trading Polanco to free up money to sign Correa. Please Don't. 

What if you don't sign Correa or Turner or Bogaerts or Swanson. Now you don't have Correa or Polanco. 

If you are trading Polanco because of depth or excess. Please Don't. Can we at least get through the year 2022 before we forget what happened in 2022 with our depth and excess. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Polanco has nagging injuries is because they keep on playing him hurt w/o trying to resolve the problem. Coming off probation he was healthy & he became an all-star but playing an unnatural position of SS he developed bad ankles. After 2 1/2 yrs. of playing hurt they took him off SS and "viola" no more bad ankles. '21 longer he played away from SS the better he got. '21 is the only true value to measure Polanco because they didn't play him hurt. '22 he injured his back where he couldn't play (most back problems take awhile to get better) they rested him & treated him & "viola", he's good. Then he hurt his knee sliding, they didn't rest him. They run him into the ground until he could no longer take the field to where they finally put him on the IL for the 1st time in his MLB career. His nagging injuries is a Polanco problem is a bunch of krock IMO, it's a management problem. Polanco is the sturdiest player we have. 

I disagree that Polanco is at a high point in trade value. Because playing hurt for at least half the '22 season his offense & defense #s were down so his trade value took a hit. He needs to be allowed to play unhurt for some time to get his trade up to where it was.

"23 with the shift ban, it will show all our warts. Right now Polanco is the player we have that can viablly play 2B. Not Miranda, not Arraez, not Gordon- Lewis. Lee, Martin & Julien are not ready. Until they are ready or in Julien case if, we can't think about trading Polanco.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my small-sample of watching Julien in two games at the AFL in October I was unlucky enough (or forgetful enough) to not recall seeing him suitably tested for his fundamental defensive skills.  I thought his demeanor on the field was excellent - very focused and all-business - but that says nothing about his range.  He did react well to a lousy double-play throw from Martin, managing to keep a toe on the bag to achieve one out on the play; that's a play a good first-baseman might also make, hint hint.  Anyway it looks like Julien's bat will eventually play in the majors, if not already, but the scouting reports on his defense seem uniformly negative and I don't have any of my own rinky-dink scouting insights to contradict that.

I don't much care for Arraez as a full-time second baseman either, and I don't know of some other heir apparent if Polanco were gone.  Gordon maybe?

Trading Polanco would be part of a tear-down in the absence of a clear replacement.  Yes, probably he could fetch something in trade; but if the Twins were to decide to move on from him (health or whatever), other teams would have the same rationale, and then the trade return would be lowered.  As others have said, the arguments for why another team would want him and give up a great deal of value would be the arguments for why he brings value to the Twins as a player and not a trade chip.

As I said in another thread, I think the topic is moot anyway, due to what seems like a pretty strong signal from the team that he's coming back for 2023.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Polanco has been a very good player for the Twins. But, to get to the World Series the Twins will need 4-5 players at his level or better. If they lose Correa (probably) and trade Polanco they're not to far from a complete rebuild. Trade Kepler and Sano is already gone, Buxton is the only veteran left when he plays. I can't see them getting trading for anything but high prospects or young guys with at least 3-4 years of team control. Sounds like a rebuild and just when we may be getting some semblance of a decent rotation

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The argument shouldn't be should the Twins trade Polanco. It should be what value can they get for him? I am a big fan of Polanco, enjoy watching him play, but if the Twins can clearly improve their MLB team and chances of stronger contention by trading Polanco of course they should trade him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "trade Polanco" chant has come up every off-season for the past 3 years. The Twins have gambled on a few guys, giving them affordable long term contracts: Sano, Kepler, Dobnak and Polanco. It could be argued that the Polanco contract was the only one that worked out in the Twins' favor. The guy is capable in the infield, he can carry the team with his bat when he gets hot....and he's got a team-friendly contract. News flash: those are the guys you KEEP. 

No way the Twins trade him, and I have no idea why this sick fantasy keeps popping into some fans' heads. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bighat said:

The "trade Polanco" chant has come up every off-season for the past 3 years. The Twins have gambled on a few guys, giving them affordable long term contracts: Sano, Kepler, Dobnak and Polanco. It could be argued that the Polanco contract was the only one that worked out in the Twins' favor. The guy is capable in the infield, he can carry the team with his bat when he gets hot....and he's got a team-friendly contract. News flash: those are the guys you KEEP. 

No way the Twins trade him, and I have no idea why this sick fantasy keeps popping into some fans' heads. 

Why this keeps coming up? The offseason is long and people get bored?

Of the 4 deals you mention, the Twins came out well for Kepler and Polanco's contracts; even with Kepler not having a great year in 2022 he was still worth 2.1 bWAR and definitely more than his less than $7M salary (and has done for the length of his contract). It's also why people still talk about him having trade value. Polanco's deal has been an absolute steal for the team. The Dobnak deal hasn't worked out, but also has cost them very little. If he can get healthy and be a quality reliever, then they could still end up about even on that one. The Sano one didn't work out for the team, but the decision-making around it was sound, so I don't have any real objections to how they're moving on extensions.

If the Twins add high-end talent through free agency this off-season they can absolutely contend, whether it's bringing back Correa, or adding Rodon plus a big bat, or whatever. Health is what snuffed out this team's chances last season, not talent. Polanco is a key part to that lineup, a consistent veteran presence and they would have to get a ridiculous, staggering return (which they won't) to make dealing Polanco worth it.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The correct answer is to revisit this question next offseason.  There are things that need to happen first like Eduard getting some time in the majors ( at DH, 1B, 2B, and 3B) so we know he can handle being an every day player and capable replacement.  Saving 10 million at this point doesn’t move the needle much on that front unless there is a contract ready to acquire/ sign.  As of now I don’t think there is one.  Is there a specific trade target in mind where the acquiring team prefers Polanco over other 2B options?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/4/2022 at 8:09 AM, Riverbrian said:

The only trade that would make sense is if we got an equal or better MLB bat in return. 

Even then you are just treading water.

Treading water, indeed.  Plus, I ask myself, who would trade for Polanco?

Some bottom feeder team with prospects galore to trade to us? What good would he do them?

A top team with World Series aspirations, that thinks he can contribute to that? Are we not trying for that?

A team with a bunch of hopeful/unproven prospects, looking for veteran leadership? Wait, isn't that us?

So I circle back to believing we trade Polanco only in a tear-down scenario. In which case I trot out my GIF of the guy going nuts and smashing everything on his desk.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trade him or not, either is a risk.  He still has possible upside, but his downside is just as strong.  If as a team you feel more value from the trade, do it, but if offers are not there, why just give him away now, you can do that anytime. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...