Conceptualizing a Creative, Realistic, Winning Contract for Carlos Correa

[EGFTShaw]

14 hours ago, Steve71 said:

Well, in response to Nick's post just above, there are 3 other "premium" SS options in the FA market that might be available at lower cost/shorter terms.  This might stretch their self-imposed budget to acquire other assets.

Turning back to Correa, I for one would rather offer him 5/$200 than these 9 and 10 year contracts being discussed.  He is a wonderful player, but he may not be when he is 36-38 years old.  Pay a very healthy AAV for his good years;  if he wants an opt-out at some point (not in 1 year like last contract), sure.  Perhaps with a team option to extend him an additional year for $40M.

I'd argue 2 other premier SS available at a lessor cost.

TT and the Slide Machine have been quoted at anywhere from $260M to $320M for 8 to 10 years.

XB and DS are the two that could come at a definitive lower cost.

[Nick Nelson]

36 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

In my opinion it should not.  I am a fan of C4 AND this proposal, but he is getting the $$s.

No to a NT clause

And I still would like to see a Mutual Option put in there.

Correa would have an automatic no-trade clause after the first four seasons (10-5 rule) so I think it's kind of immaterial. 

[jmlease1]

22 hours ago, gman said:

My problem with this is I think the Twins will need to start replacing Correa at shortstop after about 4 years. I don't think he hits well enough to be a DH or first baseman. He may last longer than 4 but does anyone see him playing shortstop in 10 years? 9? 8? 7?. There is a point in this contract like all long contracts that you will wish the player would just retire. 

You could also kick in a limited no trade clause, with a choice of say 10 teams.

On the other hand you could look at drafts for the next 5 years as simply looking for the best starting pitcher options. We have drafted a lot of middle infielders and corner outfielders the past 5 years.

It's a possibility to be sure, but the skill set that makes Correa great at SS isn't based just on speed, which should age better. His superior defense is also based on his great arm and sure hands. he sets up deeper which a) gives him more time to react, and b) allows him to get to more balls in short left. He's also such a student of the game that he always positions himself well. There's a real possibility that his defense at SS ages much more like Cal Ripken, who was still playing great SS at age 34.

Correa's one of those players that could easily keep playing shortstop into his mid-30's, and with his arm would have no trouble sliding down to 3B if his range slips to the point where a replacement is needed. Set the over/under on his remaining years at SS at 4 and I would bet the over, which makes a longer term deal with him more palatable.

[EGFTShaw]

18 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Correa would have an automatic no-trade clause after the first four seasons (10-5 rule) so I think it's kind of immaterial. 

Good point.  I forgot that tidbit about MLB.

[Johnny Ringo]

On 11/29/2022 at 10:42 AM, WinTwins162 said:

All sounds good. Bottom line is they need to pay what it takes to get/keep him. They can afford it if they want.

Don't lump in San Diego with Southern CA major markets. San Diego is actually a smaller market than the Twin Cities and quite separate than LA. However, the owner wants to spend money- whatever it takes to win. They can afford Machado, Tatis, and maybe Soto, plus Musgrave, Darvish, etc. The Twins and Pohlads could do this if they want and be heroes- they just don't want to that much.

San Diego drew 1.2 million more fans in 2022 than the Twins and their TV contract makes ours look like tip money. Their total revenue is at least $100 million a year more than the Twins. The size of the market, as measured by population, (hint: see the Green Bay Packers) means less than a Dan Gladden statistic. 

Ps. I am bummed that the Fire Dan Gladden moniker is taken. If you want arrogance, incoherence, bad grammar; Dan is the smorgasbord for you.  I can only figure that Dan got into the Twins HOF because a) they were desperate to sell tickets and b) they had to bump Wally the Beerman for specific reasons.  

[EGFTShaw]

15 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

San Diego drew 1.2 million more fans in 2022 than the Twins and their TV contract makes ours look like tip money. Their total revenue is at least $100 million a year more than the Twins.  

Herein lies a crucial item for Joe to look into.

TV revenue.  The Twins TV contract is pathetic.

[Dave Overlund]

20 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

San Diego drew 1.2 million more fans in 2022 than the Twins and their TV contract makes ours look like tip money. Their total revenue is at least $100 million a year more than the Twins. The size of the market, as measured by population, (hint: see the Green Bay Packers) means less than a Dan Gladden statistic. 

Ps. I am bummed that the Fire Dan Gladden moniker is taken. If you want arrogance, incoherence, bad grammar; Dan is the smorgasbord for you.  I can only figure that Dan got into the Twins HOF because a) they were desperate to sell tickets and b) they had to bump Wally the Beerman for specific reasons.  

Happy to be proven wrong but according to what I could find from FanGraphs the Twins and Padres have nearly identical TV contracts. The Padres contract is longer but the value per year is almost the same ($46m vs $43m). 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

[DocBauer]

There's a lot of reasons I prefer Correa over the other 3 possible SS, including age, a defensive set of tools that should age pretty well, leadership, being one of the smartest players I may have ever watched, etc. But I agree Boegarts could be a great 2nd choice.

While no means should these numbers be taken as gospel, it's  interesting to see how MLBTraderumors list expected contracts:

Correa      9 @ $288M

Boegarts  7 @ $189M

Turner     8 @ $268M

Swanson 7 @ $154M

My hunch? For whatever reason, Turner doesn't seem to be a target. And for a little more, why not Correa? I think Swanson is as good, or better, defensively as anyone, comes cheaper, and is still a top of the order hitter. My gut tells me he wants to stay in Atlanta and they will re-sign him.

What's interesting to me is the projection on Correa. And I may be 100% wrong about this, but as I mentioned in a previous post, the whole 10yrs and $330M...to me...has to be weighed against being 1yr older than last year, having already earned $35M in 2022, so I'm just sure I fully buy in to the SAME 10yrs and $330M being tossed around here and there. There's nothing wrong with Correa. He's still a super star player, but doesn't 1yr removed still change the complexion of impending deal options?

Again, what do I know?

I do think Boegarts is a very good second choice. I think he fits need and opportunity. The terms of a potential deal fit a little more "easy". But I'd still pick Correa as the #1 target, especially if we can keep the deal at $300M or less and 9yrs. I like Nick's proposal very much and find it to be very smart and workable to both parties with advantages both ways. I just wonder if the numbers shouldn't  maybe be shaved just a little. I think Correa and Boras, if they received Nick's proposal from the Twins, should grab a pen and ask where to sign. I just don't believe they will get anything better than a GUARANTEED 10yrs and $325M WITH a pair of opt outs to use if they wish.

[solomon1930]

On 11/29/2022 at 10:44 AM, roger said:

Agree that this is creative and expect there is a real chance it would get the job done.  But I sure hope that it doesn't get done.  Why, I cringe when I think of paying this type of money for 10 years.  

I believe that Royce Lewis is and should be the Twins shortstop over the next 5-8 years.  I don't see the need to break the bank to sign Correa.  And this contract would break the bank.

Agreed.  He is not the missing piece, just one of many. 

Gio played SS for the Yankees.  He could have held that position down

until Lewis was ready giving him all the time he needed to recuperate.

I truly hope that Correa turns down every offer the Twins present him.

[jmlease1]

From a marketing standpoint for Boras & Correa, if they sign with the Twins, they can fold last year's money into the total package if hitting a bigger overall number is especially meaningful to them. Sure it's nothing but marketing fakery, but why would they care? I hope someone from the Twins makes sure to mention that idea, because why the hell not?

9/$285M + 1/$35M still gets them to a bigger number than Seager...

[Squirrel]

22 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Herein lies a crucial item for Joe to look into.

TV revenue.  The Twins TV contract is pathetic.

The TV contract expires after the 2023 season. This is partly why I think they can go after Correa. Surely they can and will do better with a new TV deal.

[Thebigalguy]

I think your 10 year plan makes sense to both sides. The only tweak might be to have an option that gets CC involved also as a coach and, later, some kind of FO presence if the honeymoon doesn't crash to an end and if he stays the course despite the opt outs. Most long-term Twins segue into some sort of relationship with the team, whether it be spring training consultants, commentators, or what-have-you. Correa, aka Dior, wants more than money; he wants respect that's flagged with precise acknowledgments of his expertise. 

[ashbury]

On 11/30/2022 at 2:45 PM, DocBauer said:

Turner     8 @ $268M

My hunch? For whatever reason, Turner doesn't seem to be a target.

This aged well. ?

(As wise Yogi taught us all, in baseball we don't know nothin'.)

[Mike Sixel]

10 year deal

first five years: $25 MM
next five years: $20 MM

Free agent after that....with deferred payments of $10MM per year for the next ten years. Biggest contract this year (until Judge signs) total dollar wise. I'd be happy to go to $30MM per year the first five years, and drop the deferred if needed (that would make it $7.5MM per year those ten dead money years).

[Mike Sixel]

Another option is to say "Hey, the owners have told us to use $20 million of our BAM money as a bonus for CC."

20 million up front as a signing bonus, and $30 million a year for 10 years.

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Another option is to say "Hey, the owners have told us to use $20 million of our BAM money as a bonus for CC."

Doesn't every team have that to add, as a sweetener?

Though, we could throw in Brian Duensing, if he thinks he can find a use for a reliever.

[Mike Sixel]

36 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Doesn't every team have that to add, as a sweetener?

Though, we could throw in Brian Duensing, if he thinks he can find a use for a reliever.

I don't understand your point at all. Most teams aren't signing him, and I'm offering a way for the Twins to do so. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand your point at all. Most teams aren't signing him, and I'm offering a way for the Twins to do so. 

I’d guess as usual, at minimum 10 teams won’t spend 20M in new money free agency for their 2023 payroll.

Which frankly is disgusting.

The extra money won’t impact the payrolls of top ten or so teams one bit. It likely won’t impact the miserly bottom ten or so teams either. The middle spending teams, like the Twins, should be able to take advantage of this.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand your point at all. Most teams aren't signing him, and I'm offering a way for the Twins to do so. 

Well, maybe I didn't understand the point I was responding to.  There will be teams bidding for him, and aren't they all receiving this windfall too?