Offseason Status Update: Setting a Floor

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have been relatively busy early in the offseason, with a couple of trades reshaping their infield outlook and an embattled reliever receiving a controversial contract tender. 

Read on to catch up on what the front office has done so far and where the roster currently stands.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel and Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Since we last checked in, the Twins have made news with a number of noteworthy moves: trading third baseman Gio Urshela, acquiring shortstop Kyle Farmer, tendering reliever Emilio Pagan.

Let's take a quick look at the details behind each of these decisions, and where they leave the state of the roster as the Winter Meetings fast approach on December 4th.

Twins Trade Urshela to Angels

Just ahead of the arbitration contract tender deadline on November 18th, the Twins shipped one of their eligible players – the most difficult decision among them – to the Angels in exchange for minor-league pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo.

A 19-year-old right-hander who hasn't yet advanced past Low-A ball, Hidalgo is a modestly intriguing young arm, but the return for Urshela was expectedly small. He's a valuable player, but at his projected arbitration cost in the $9 million range, a bit less appealing – especially for a Twins team that hopes to usher Jose Miranda in as regular third baseman next year.

For the Angels, Urshela is an odd fit. Like the Twins, they seem to view him as strictly a corner infielder ... but they already have Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh entrenched at third and first, with Shohei Ohtani typically occupying DH. It is very difficult to understand LA's motivation in making this move from the current view.

Hidalgo's your usual big-stuff/bad-control lotto ticket. Certainly a preferable outcome to non-tendering Urshela for nothing in return. 

Pagan Is Coming Back for Another Year

With Urshela shipped out, the Twins tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible players – including, controversially, the embattled Pagan. He'll earn a projected $3.7 million in his final year of team control, coming off a season where he earned the ire of fans with numerous lapses in crucial moments. 

He was the poster child for a bullpen that helped derail a promising Twins season. Now we'll see if he can become the figurehead for its triumphant turnaround. 

Amidst all the backlash this decision understandably provoked, I tried to explore the team's reasoning, noting that Pagan saw improved results down the stretch with a pitch mix change under pitching coaches Pete Maki and Colby Suggs. It's hard to give up on stuff of that caliber, and the upside it entails.

While many fans struggle to make sense of it, Pagan does seem to be viewed much more highly in baseball circles than from the outside. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the reliever "drew much more interest" than Urshela ahead of the non-tender deadline. 

Farmer Enters the Fold

Not long after parting with some veteran depth in Urshela, the Twins quickly backfilled with the addition of Farmer, acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league righty Casey Legumina. 

This deal was, in many ways, the reverse of the Urshela trade: Farmer is a valuable enough player, but wasn't that valuable to Cincinnati at his arbitration price point, so they sent him to a team that could use the depth in exchange for a pitching flier. 

In this case, it's much easier to see the fit for Farmer, who could fill a number of different roles depending on what the Twins do elsewhere. For now, he's slotted in as their starting shortstop, and an adequate interim fill-in for Royce Lewis if that is the front office's leaning.

In addition to his defensive flexibility, one aspect of Farmer's profile that surely attracted the Twins is his excellence against left-handed pitching. This looks like an effort to offset one of the offense's key weaknesses in 2021, when they slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws.

Twins Showing Interest in Rodon

Hayes wrote in a roster projection column over the weekend that the team has "definite interest" in Carlos Rodon, which comes as no surprise. However, Hayes adds, "his contract is likely to soar to areas it might not feel comfortable paying, perhaps as high as $160 million over five years."

In a column unpacking the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching, I examined this very conundrum: Rodon is exactly the kind of proven ace that the Twins should be looking to land this offseason. He's a dominant force coming off an excellent season, and his addition would energize the fanbase while fortifying the rotation. 

But, he's also entering the market at peak value, have pressed a career-high workload upon a shoulder that has endlessly tormented him. With Rodon, you're going to be paying purely for the upside we just saw, and hoping it sustains. And the price tag will be quite high, with the free-spending Dodgers already in the mix as suitors. 

One Current Opening on the 40-Man Roster

As a sum result of all this moving and shaking, along with the additions of prospects Edouard Julien, Brent Headrick, and Matt Canterino to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota's 40-man roster currently stands at 39:

 

 

Should the Twins need to be make room for more additions, the most vulnerable 40-man spots likely belong to Mark Contreras, Cole Sands, and Trevor Megill.

Roster and Payroll Projection: v2

In looking at the projected 2023 roster in its current form, you can see how the Twins are setting a floor. 

They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year: a rotation with five proven big-league starters, a fairly deep bullpen with back-end power, and a credible – albeit somewhat underwhelming on whole – stable of position players. The only openings are a backup catcher and utility infielder for the bench, easily filled.

That is not to say going forward with this group would be acceptable in anyone's eyes. But the point is that the Twins aren't backed into any corners, needing to allocate their funds in any specific way – just how they like it. With nearly $50 million in spending room just to get back to the 2022 payroll baseline, we'll see how opportunistic this front office can be, free from any kind of restraint.

 

 

If you want to read up on all of the team's many options available at positions across the board, the Offseason Handbook is now available in full to download, with 39 pages covering the Hot Stove landscape from every angle. It's free to all Caretakers! Grab a copy and build your own 2023 blueprint.

 

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[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nick for laying everything out for us. It seems like the floor work has been laid down. We just have to wait & see what shakes loose.

[RJA]

Good article, Nick, as usual.  Do you think the Twins view the Sano, Archer and Bundy dollars as dead money?  I just noticed that some national folks have the Twins at 98 million.  No big deal but that extra five million could get another catcher or bullpen arm if the Twins are open to just eating the 5 million for those three guys.  I hope we find out about Correa soon, so if we don't land him, we can pivot to other players before they start signing elsewhere.  Actually, if we were to add one of the 4 shortstops in FA, and Rodon or another live arm through a trade, this is not a bad looking roster IF the injured guys are healthy.  If we get a top of the rotation guy, Maeda or Ober could be a spot starter and work out of the bullpen which would strengthen the relief corps as well.  Isn't hot stove league fun?

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, RJA said:

Good article, Nick, as usual.  Do you think the Twins view the Sano, Archer and Bundy dollars as dead money?  I just noticed that some national folks have the Twins at 98 million.  No big deal but that extra five million could get another catcher or bullpen arm if the Twins are open to just eating the 5 million for those three guys.  I hope we find out about Correa soon, so if we don't land him, we can pivot to other players before they start signing elsewhere.  Actually, if we were to add one of the 4 shortstops in FA, and Rodon or another live arm through a trade, this is not a bad looking roster IF the injured guys are healthy.  If we get a top of the rotation guy, Maeda or Ober could be a spot starter and work out of the bullpen which would strengthen the relief corps as well.  Isn't hot stove league fun?

No matter where you look, you will see different reports on current payroll. Maeda, for example, can be counted for his guaranteed minimum, OR, at his incentive based maximum.

But Sano, Archer, and Bundy amount to $4.5M that is counted toward 2022, and not the 2023 payroll. So depending where you look, they can be removed and the listed payroll would then have another $4.5M to work with.

[DocBauer]

Another good write up, Nick! Bullet points from me.

1] The Twins seem legitimate in their pursuit of Correa or Bogaerts. Getting either, or any of the top 4, changes the infield defense and the lineup. They seem honest and earnest in their pursuits. Can they and will they follow through?

2] I like the farmer move a lot for flexibility and depth and a floor. I think he fits the 2023 roster better than Urshela. But he's that much better depending on point #1.

3] Somehow, no matter other additions, including at SS, this lineup/roster needs a solid RH bat to help offset the LH dominance. It just can't be ignored yet again. Garlick as the only option? Really? I don't see it. I believe he's this year's version of Cave.

4] I am IN on Rodon for $25M for 4 or 5yrs, despite the inherent risk of adding FA pitchers. I think he'd deliver enough to warrant the risk and $. But if he really might warrant $30M...and I'm not convinced...then I think I'm out. I like what's on hand, and some depth, but feel a lot better if I have one nice add for depth and options. I'm just expecting someone to be hurt. I want that extra good arm equal to what we have, if not better. And there's still a handful of arms that I believe fit that category. 

5] I like the shape/start of the pen. I would love to bring back Farmer, or equivalent. I'd also love to add someone like Hand or Rogers from the LH side. I'm not sure payroll will allow that when all is said and done. But it might allow adding at least 1.

6] Speaking of payroll, $50M+ just to get back to 2022. Another $10M for a logical bump to around $150M, which probably keeps the Twins around 15 or 16 in MLB. If a Kepler moves, that's yet another $8+ M to add. Urshela gone, Farmer added, Pagan kept, is all about a wash financially. Realistically, the Twins could have as much as $70M to play with. That's a TON. But a chunk is gone with a SS and a SP, whether Correa and Rodon or other. Still need a catcher and RH bat, maybe a pen arm. A lot of opportunity, but it has to be spent smart with some room to distribute around a little. Could be tight.

7] I'm still flabbergasted about Pagan. Nearly $4M for a middle reliever who you can only hope will go 2 innings and not allow a major HR 2 or 3 run blast every other time out??? I still see this as obstinace and poor usage of funds and roster management. Please tell me they're going to still move him for ANYTHING and clear the $ and roster spot for better fit/need.

[Blyleven2011]

58 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

 

7] I'm still flabbergasted about Pagan. Nearly $4M for a middle reliever who you can only hope will go 2 innings and not allow a major HR 2 or 3 run blast every other time out??? I still see this as obstinace and poor usage of funds and roster management. Please tell me they're going to still move him for ANYTHING and clear the $ and roster spot for better fit/need.

I'm with you on pagan , if he was a minor leaguer getting a taste of the big leagues , he'd be sent packing to ride the bus in the minors ...

Pagan may have the stuff to throw hard but he doesn't have the control, 

To many walks and Homer's  , his better production the last couple of months is a mirage as he faced more rookies in the later months,  I see pagan getting cut in 2023 like Duffy in 2022 once they realize his new pitch isn't the trick  ...

Good write up nick ...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If, as reported, there was more interest in Pagan, than Urshela, then please FO, trade Pagan for some young prospects.

[D.C Twins]

"They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year"

mmmmm .... competent ballclub......mmmmmmmm

Fielding a competent ballclub makes me salivate for season tickets!

[mikelink45]

I loved the essay, but it is hard to see next year and project the roster before December.   At least this points out the moving pieces that can be used - just like the Kiner-Felafa trade, we just don't know what is in the FO minds.  If there is that interest in Pagan maybe he is being kept as that extra player in a trade scenario (I hope). 

[jmlease1]

I don't mind early moves to set the floor for the ballclub. And I appreciate the front office understands that raising the floor of the team and making sure you have competent players at every spot is an easy and important way to ensure that you can field a competitive team. Just removing innings from bad/incompetent players is smart.

Which is why keeping Pagan is baffling to me. He hasn't been good in several years, he gives the fanbase PTSD, and now he costs $4M. I really hope he's moved before the season.

But the real show is going to be: what do we do we all that payroll space? I want high end talent, not a bunch of guys on $8-10M deals.

[roger]

Thanks, Nick, for a great review of where this team is on November 27, it is appreciated.

I have two comments.  The biggest need, IMO, is a good starting catcher…not a backup.  Doesn’t have to be a great hitter, but should hit more than .220 average.  What he must do is control the running game and block more pitches than Jeffers.    They shouldn’t be looking for a backup, they have him.  They also need a third catcher, although he could be on a minor league deal.

As for total budget, you aren’t gonna get both Correa and Rodin.  That’s at least $60M which would push them up to $155M before adding the catcher(s) and any help for the pen.  So they may get one, but not both.

[CRF]

The floor? The floor is what someone is going to be picking me up from, if we actually do sign one or more of these FA's out there...including CC.

[Steve71]

They CAN get both Correa and Rodon, it is just unlikely they WILL sign both.  Therre is no rule that the Twins can't spend more than their self-imposed budget, as there is no hard cap like in the NFL (although there should be).  

It would certainly be refreshing if they signed both, and perhaps flip Kepler and his small contract for a starting Catcher with any other assorted smaller pieces.

No one thought they would sign Correa last year, so it is possible, especially when they have this vaunted "good relationship" with Boros, who represents both Correa and Rodon.  Make is a 2-fer!