The Troubling Realities of Buying High on Free Agent Pitching

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1)  Long term contracts for players on the wrong side of 30 rarely do not work out for the entirety of the contract.  You typically are vastly overpaying for the last third of the deal.  Few teams can truly afford to do this and carry dead salary, the Twins are not one of them.

2) Pitchers and health are such a crapshoot. The general risk is high.  Without having any statistics in front of me, I would bet that the longer contracts have an insanely high risk of time lost due to injury, not including time getting back to full strength.

3) The Twins have avoided anything longer than 4 years since the dawn of time.  Most of your "dial movers" will get contracts exceeding that, which puts the Twins out of the running.  High AAV on shorter deals will only get you so far.

4) If you truly believe that this offseason will be lost if they do not sign Rodon, prepare to feel the pain.  He will get overpaid by somebody, and in a few years we will look back and be glad we didn't sign him.

[Nick Nelson]

16 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Well, the stats I quoted were ‘22 and career, so clearly last year isn’t all I care about.

How’d Eovaldi do in ‘16, ‘17, ‘19? He’s had 2 very good seasons, 2 ok seasons, and several bad and injured ones.

How'd Rodon do in those seasons? How about Robbie Ray in his pre-2021 career? This is the point in play here: all but the most elite pitchers are so volatile from year to year. Does it really make sense to pay for them at their absolute peak value, when it means a long-term contract you'll be feeling the effects of for many years?

[EGFTShaw]

On 11/23/2022 at 10:04 PM, DocBauer said:

Thank you Nick for a tremendous article! 

I am still baffled about calls to "go get an ACE", as if they were being dangled as a blue-light special at K-Mart. (Old school reference I know, lol). They either cost a fortune in players and prospects from a re-building team, or cost a similar $ fortune on the rare opportunity they hit FA.

I think the FO is beyond skittish to sign a quality FA. The problem there is there are FA who turn out just fine, and justify their signing. And all it takes is that ONE signing that turned out for everyone to say "SEE". And Wheeler is a good example. Darvish is a lesser example as he's been OK. And there are other examples. Lester for the Cubs? You never get FULL VALUE, but you pay, generally, for those couple of seasons where they are good.

I can't tell you how much I want Rodon on a 4yr deal, or 5yr, maybe with an opt out. He actually moves the needle of contention, even though I know he will be good/great only half the time. But believe me, I understand the percentages and the FO aversion to these deals. But again, when it works, it was worth the deal.

IMO, while some kind of ACE is amazing to have, I've always believed a collection of #2 and #3 SP with a great pen made the most sense. For the season, and the playoffs, I want the deepest staff I can put together. ONE GAME doesn't guarantee anything.

Damn, I still want Rodon, lol, and I hope we get him, but the cost has to make sense.

But there are a couple of SP options out there besides Rodon I believe the Twins should be looking at. They should be EXPECTING someone to be injured and need the depth, if they really want to compete in 2023. Even then, there will be room for Varland, SWR, maybe Balazovic at some point, etc. Even with good health, you still need 8-10 SP in a season.

I like what's on hand. I wouldn't mind extending Gray. I think a healthy Mahle just might be our best SP. I like Ryan and Ober a lot. I think Maeda might surprise. But if I want to contend, I'd just expect injuries and sign someone as good as what we have, or better.

Rodon might be the only "better" than what we have. Is he worth the risk? IDK. But a healthy Rodon looks good, doesn't he? I'm not expecting him. But I sure hope we add one of the other "good as Gray" arms because I don't want to just trust in health.

 

I am as Old School on the term Ace as you are on the Blue Light Special...

Hello K-Mart Shoppers, over in the Sporting Goods department today, we have on sale for the next 60 minutes, a Blue Light Special on MLB FA Starting Pitchers, DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon and much much more.  As always, we would like to thank you for shopping at K(ame)Apart and have a wonderful day.

ACE to me is reserved for Johan type performance.  Absolutely not required to win, but when you talk Ace, this is what it should mean.  That one pitcher that on any given day will hit DDigits in Ks while no hitting the opponent while on the mound.  I think No Hitters are going to be few and far between given the current MLB philosophy on pitchers going beyond inning number 6.

PS - yes I am THAT old to know about Blue Light Specials...LOL/SIGH

[Linus]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

How'd Rodon do in those seasons? How about Robbie Ray in his pre-2021 career? This is the point in play here: all but the most elite pitchers are so volatile from year to year. Does it really make sense to pay for them at their absolute peak value, when it means a long-term contract you'll be feeling the effects of for many years?

I absolutely hear what you are saying and largely agree with it. But my next question is what are we going to do?  Stand pat with an average rotation?  What do we do after next year when we can lose Gray and Mahle?  

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

I absolutely hear what you are saying and largely agree with it. But my next question is what are we going to do?  Stand pat with an average rotation?  What do we do after next year when we can lose Gray and Mahle?  

Sign Eovaldi. Or some other pitcher you like whose value is not inflated to an extreme degree. Or, find a way to get it done with someone you can truly count on like Verlander or deGrom. I absolutely do not think standing pat is an option.

(And, to be clear, I'd love it if the Twins signed Rodon. I'm not arguing against that path, more trying to articulate what I see as the argument against that path via the lens this front office tends to use.)

[Trov]

I fully agree with the article, and have long talked about this.  Every year I see fans call for spending big on guys like Ray, or others.  There are very few pitchers into their 30's that live up to their long term deals.  Many fall off after the first or second year, for various reasons.  Some barely even make first year.  

There are a few guys that pitch at high level into late 30's, and they are all HOF bound.  The majority not only fall off production, but fall off the cliff.  There are a few that manage to come back and learn how to pitch differently, Bartolo Colon, is one of recent that comes to mind.  He was never, amazing, but was up there.  He fell off in his 30's only to come back in late 30's early 40's to have 4 good seasons.  Nothing amazing, but compared to what he had been doing they were very good. 

I have faith the FO will not get into a bad contract on a starter.  They may be in on Rodon, but it may be for a 3 to 4 year deal at higher per year, where other teams will be more willing to give the 5 to 7 with opt out after like 2 to 3 years.  I doubt Twins agree to anything beyond 4, they have yet to be willing to do that.  I doubt they get to point where they just throw money out there to make it look like they are making moves. 

If you are going to go big, you do it for CC, not Rodon,  I have always said, I am all for spending big on a starter over 3 years, but not willing to go 5 plus because of how quickly you get negative returns, but you keep throwing them out there to pitch because they earn too much to cut or move to pen, even if numbers show they should be.  

[Steve71]

If I were to try and sign Rodon, I would go bigger and shorter, say 3/$90.  I hate to be tied to a big contract when he is 35.