Let's Talk About Emilio Pagán

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

There we go, the million dollar idea.  A new pitching metric:  Outing Effectiveness (OE).  How many outings does a RP give up zero runs?  What is their OE percentage?  Could factor in inherited runners as well.

I think this, coupled with ERA, gives a stronger picture of the effectiveness of a RP.  

Any idea where I send the invoice? 

[jorgenswest]

Pagán is expected to make 3.7 million in arbitration. Can the Twins do better in free agency?

Last off season three relievers signed in the range of 3.5 to 4 million dollars. David Robertson signed for 3.5 million and with the Cubs. He was a very good reliever last year and was easily moved at the deadline. Archie Bradley signed for 3.75 million with the Angels. He spent most of the year injured and had a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Adam Ottavino signed for 4 million with the Mets and had a great year with 2.06 ERA in 66 appearances.

Why would a team trade for him? Wouldn’t it be a better risk to keep your prospect and sign a free agent for the same dollars?

The only justification for retaining him is the Twins think he is better value than what they can sign in free agency for a similar contract. Alternatively they need to find another team that wants to pay him this contract and give up a prospect essentially seeing him as more valuable than any free agent they might sign at the same cost.

I think they are keeping him. Once they settle in arbitration the contract is now guaranteed. I hope they are right. 
 

edit: To be fair Ottavino and Robertson had poor seasons the previous two years and their better than expected LOB% contributed to their numbers last year. The three are projected to have similar ERAs for 2023 ranging from Robertson at 3.80 to Pagán at 3.93. Would you buy high on Robertson (2 years 16M) or  Ottavino (2 years 14M) and save the 3.7M on Pagán?

[Linus]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Pagán is e expected to make 3.7 million in arbitration. Can the Twins do better in free agency?

Last off season three relievers signed in the range of 3.5 to 4 million dollars. David Robertson signed for 3.5 million and with the Cubs. He was a very good reliever last year and was easily moved at the deadline. Archie Bradley signed for 3.75 million with the Angels. He spent most of the year injured and had a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Adam Ottavino signed for 4 million with the Mets and had a great year with 2.06 ERA in 66 appearances.

Why would a team trade for him? Wouldn’t it be a better risk to keep your prospect and sign a free agent for the same dollars?

The only justification for retaining him is the Twins think he is better value than what they can sign in free agency for a similar contract. Alternatively they need to find another team that wants to pay him this contract and give up a prospect essentially seeing him as more valuable than any free agent they might sign at the same cost.

I think they are keeping him. Once they settle in arbitration the contract is now guaranteed. I hope they are right. 

Good info on the salaries. They are definitely keeping him otherwise they would have traded him prior to the arb deadline. It’s also why I think it’s BS that they had trade interest in him. There is no surplus value in his contract - my opinion is that they are under water on that contract so who hell is going to give up a prospect for him?  They are doubling down on their first mistake. I think this is where their strict adherence to their own models is failing them. You can find all kinds of advanced metrics that say he should be good. He isn’t and hasn’t been for three years. Whatever. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/19/2022 at 9:31 PM, Riverbrian said:

Throwing in a couple of cents. I'm a hang a zero guy. For a reliever... Hanging a zero is doing your job. If you give up a run, you did not do your job. How many times did you do your job and how many times did you not. 

ERA is such a misleading stat for relievers because if you hang a 6. It will take you 12 appearances hanging a zero before you stop getting hate mail from the ERA obsessed.

So I look at appearances and how many times they did the job we want them to do which is hang a zero.

Pre Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare. 

Emilio appeared in 22 games. He Hung Zeroes in 16 of those games. 73% Good or 27% Bad

Use the Good or the Bad depending on how you like your water glasses. 

Post Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare. 

Emilio Appeared in 32 Games. He Hung Zeroes in 21 of those games. 65% Good or 35% Bad.

So I got him as worse post Cleveland Nightmare in my world. 

Let's add in the Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare for fun (which included a hung zero against Denver in the middle of the carnage) and his hung zero season totals were: 59 appearances. 38 Zeros hung. 64%  

For peer comparison 

Duran: 57 Appearance - 47 Zeros hung - 82%

Thielbar: 67 Appearances - 54 Zeros Hung - 81%

Moran: 31 Appearances - 25 Zeros Hung - 81%

Smith: 34 Appearances - 26 Zeroes Hung - 76% (Note: Smith didn't allow an earned run over his first 17 Appearances. He was 52% after that)

Jax: 65 Appearances - 48 Zeroes Hung - 74%

Duffey: 40 Appearances - 29 Zeroes Hung - 73% (Duffey tended to give up crooked numbers when he couldn't hang the zero)  

Pagan: 59 Appearances - 38 Zeros hung - 64%

Megill: 39 Appearances - 25 Zeros hung - 64%

I present this as just another way to show that Pagan wasn't very good. 

 

I love these Metrics for relievers! The success % is subjective but I think 80% would denote “good”…….betwee 74-79% adequate. Below 74%, we need to probably move on.

COMMAND is the pitching key and stuff (velocity & spin rate) don’t override command. Pagan has good stuff…..his new pitch at 81mph & more vertical tilt may be his savior? I just have no patience left nor potential confidence when strike outs at 38% clip are overshadowed by HR’s at TOO HIGH % clip. Just doesn’t seem to have a clue OR the necessary command!

Would rather spend time developing a cutter or chang-up with Megill and giving him another year at $700K!

With the 3 batter minimum for relievers, the% rate of success is even more important. Can’t fool the numbers (%) by just facing one batter per appearance.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I think what we have with Pagan is a low-leverage innings eater who doesn't get hurt.  If the Twins feel, given that role, that he is worth the money, then fine.  If they want to escalate him to the high-leverage role then I think this is a big mistake.

[howeda7]

If they'd gotten him to take a cheap $1 million deal with a cheap club option for 2024, I could tolerate this. To just tender him and pay him ~$4 million dollars is absurd. Falvey is too proud to admit he made a terrible trade and is doubling down on failure.

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd rather we pull a kid off of a local high school team and give him innings than this guy. Move on. He sucks!