The Trade Target that Fixes The Twins Outfield

[Cody Pirkl]

While far from a major problem, the Twins could use a shake up in the outfield headed into 2023. Could a journeyman on the Brewers be the answer?

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins are full of talent in the outfield but are a bit left-handed heavy. It’s also begun to feel like long-time Twin Max Kepler’s time is running out in Minnesota. Effectively swapping him out for a right-handed platoon option seems like a relatively small move that could pay off big time for a Twins roster which is fighting for a return to relevance.

Hunter Renfroe has never been a big name in his seven seasons but has been nothing less than a solid player for some time now. In 2022 he had a career season, slashing .255/.315/.492 in Milwaukee. Having already bounced between four teams in his seven years, could yet another trade help return the Twins to the promised land?

 

 

Complementing the Corners
Between Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner, the Twins outfield is overly left-handed, and we’ve seen teams abuse that late in games the last few seasons. Only Byron Buxton and the recently re-signed Kyle Garlick balance things out, and recently neither has been reliable in terms of their availability.

Renfroe would not only be a welcome addition in terms of production (.258/.350/.492 vs LHP in 2022), but in terms of reliability. The aforementioned Buxton and Garlick combined to play just 158 games in 2022. Renfroe played in 125 even being used in somewhat of a platoon role in Milwaukee. While Garlick in particular fills the “lefty masher” role, he’s been an easy out in his career against right-handed pitching and has been healthy enough to play in just 102 games for the Twins the last two seasons.

Renfroe on the other hand was 20% above league average against same-handed pitching in 2022 while still filling the same role Garlick does, with an injury history that suggests he’d be more available on a day-to-day basis moving forward. While Garlick and the Twins recently agreed on a contract for 2023, the amount is miniscule, and if they could swing a trade Renfroe, being an upgrade over Garlick is an easy argument to make.

 

The Twins would be well positioned with a lefty masher who’s capable against righties and can fill in at either corner to complement their many left-handed options. It seems like a win-win.

Change is Coming
Though nothing is definitive at this time, there’s been some talk of Kepler’s time in Minnesota coming to an end. Filling his spot with someone like Renfroe makes too much sense. Nearing 30 years of age, we know what Max Kepler is. While capable of providing gold glove caliber defense, it’s safe to say this value is outweighed by his extremely limited offensive profile. Long understood to be an incapable hitter against left-handed pitching, Kepler has recently failed to post even league average offense against righties.

Too often, his at-bat results in pulling a ball either straight into the ground to second or first base, or popping out to shallow right field. He has failed to adjust his approach at all, and is no longer even a league average hitter. Yet he’ll continue to start day after day due to his defense.

A pivot to Renfroe adds so many dimensions to a Twins' lineup in need of a breath of fresh air. In addition to Renfroe’s superior bat, he was also worth six Defensive Runs Saved in left field and two in right field. A slight defensive downgrade is possible, but that step down will be far outweighed by the need Renfroe would fill in the Twins lineup. 

 

In terms of financial cost, the trade off also is not that restrictive. After making a bit under $8m in 2022, Renfroe will likely be due $10ish million in 2023. Assuming the Twins can find a home for Kepler’s $8.5m salary, it won’t cost them much. It’s also possible they could get creative and include a player such as Gio Urshela in a trade to the third base needy Brewers in a deal for Renfroe, which would unload even more money.

With the Twins having high free agent aspirations at positions such as shortstop, the trade market may be the place to look for offensive help. With Teoscar Hernandez recently being traded for a 28-year-old reliever and a minor leaguer, a Renfroe trade continues to look more and more affordable. The Twins should be looking to shake up the outfield with a more diverse set of players. Renfroe may just be the answer. Do you agree?

 

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[RpR]

15 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

A pivot to Renfroe adds so many dimensions to a Twins' lineup in need of a breath of fresh air. In addition to Renfroe’s superior bat, he was also worth six Defensive Runs Saved in left field and two in right field. A slight defensive downgrade is possible, but that step down will be far outweighed by the need Renfroe would fill in the Twins lineup. 

 

 

 

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Two in right field vs 12 for Kepler, not an improvement. Renfoe range is well below average so you are gaining nothing. excpet maybe with him thinnking:    Here comes the ball, here comes the ball, oh darn, there goes the ball , there goes the ball.

Kepler has become one of new punching bags since Jake Cave is gone.

[MTV]

Renfroe is the perfect low-risk high-reward pick. People will complain about his defense but Garlick’s isn’t much better, plus Wallner is going to be up early in the year and will make up for Renfroe’s defense. He can be an impact bat batting 4/5/6 and for around $10-11 million on a one year deal that sounds good, he also won’t cost much to trade for

[tony&rodney]

I doubt Milwaukee is looking to trade a player who provides offense. The Brewers are looking to add bats to their roster. 

Renfroe does not interest me as a potential roster pickup via trade.  

[DocBauer]

Would Renfroe be a downgrade defensively? Of course he would. But I don't that much better offensive production wouldn't overcome any runs lost. Rumor has it the Brewers may be looking to cut some payroll if possible. Assuming that's true, this deal could make a lot of sense.

Financially, I have really liked the idea of adding Haniger as a RH option to the OF, despite some injury concerns. Haniger has a better bet, but with Renfroe being a better daily bet for the lineup, he may be a better choice. And $, they'd be very close, IMO.

If Renfroe is better in LF...and I don't know if that's the case or not...Larnach and Wallner have the arms for RF for sure. 

I like this idea a lot. My concern would be what do we have to give up for a player that is currently on a 1yr deal? Urshela makes sense. But what else? Would we have to give them Larnach or Wallner? I think I might have to pass if that's the case and again think the best FA route.

But in principal, this is a pretty smart idea.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, MTV said:

Renfroe is the perfect low-risk high-reward pick. People will complain about his defense but Garlick’s isn’t much better, plus Wallner is going to be up early in the year and will make up for Renfroe’s defense. He can be an impact bat batting 4/5/6 and for around $10-11 million on a one year deal that sounds good, he also won’t cost much to trade for

LOL, Wallner will be in AAA, unless the Twins want to repeat this year; lets see, 6 walks and 25 strikes out plus Minus 35 runs saved in the outfield, just what the Twins need, go from Plus 12 runs to Minus 35 and difference of only 47 runs. yes sir just what the Twins need.

I would not have Garlick any where but Left Field, now Renfoe may work there.

[DocBauer]

BTW, I forgot to address Garlick in my earlier post. While I would have been 100% OK leaving him off the roster in favor of protecting an additional prospect, I do understand why the Twins kept him at this time.

While he is a very different player, he is this year's version of Cave in 2022. The FO knows they need better.  He's signed to hang around and be removed later, but is hopefull keeper, like Cave, who is a fall back option or break glass in case of need option. I believe his time on the 40 man is limited.

[Stew]

If renfroe is so much better then Kepler, why would they trade him? Besides most of urshela's stats look as good or better. So we give them to great fielder for one player? 

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

 

Kepler has become one of new punching bags since Jake Cave is gone.

Nah.  That's Garlick's job.

 

[dxpavelka]

Tough for Kiriloff and Larnach to make us too left handed from the IL.

[awmonahan]

Sounds great. Good all-around player. Just don't think he's available. 

 

[weitz41]

Is there some reason we couldn't keep Kep in right and put Renfroe in left? Gordon is a better fit as super utility then everyday LF. Larnach and Kirilloff haven't proven they can stay on the field let alone produce. We haven't had offense come from left field since Rosario was let go. If we can play Rooker in left a few years ago I'm guessing Renfroe can more then handle it.

[Riverbrian]

Since DRS is being thrown around. Stats from fangraphs are posted below. Take note of the amazing defensive year he had in 2019. 

Here's a question.

What if Renfroe has a defensive year like he did in 2019. If he did... would he be a good defender then? 

That's quite the gold glove spike in 2019. I Wonder how that happens. That 2019 sure seems to prop up his defensive career numbers. 

I also notice that his best zone metric performances (DRS and UZR) were best when he split time between LF and RF? Does this prove that players can be positionally flexible or does this prove that the small sample is made smaller by splitting between positions? 

That's all I got... let the discussion of Renfroe's defensive ability resume.  

Season	Team	Level	Pos	Inn	rSZ	rCERA	rSB	rGDP	rARM	rGFP	rPM	DRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150	FRM	OAA	RAA
2020	TBR	MLB	1B	9.0				0		0	-1	-1								0	0
2022	MIL	MLB	1B	1.0	0			0		0	0	0
Total	- - -	- - -	1B	10.0	0			0		0	-1	-1								0	0
2018	SDP	MLB	LF	476.0					0	-1	2	1	-0.8		0.7	-0.3	-0.4	-0.9		-1	-1
2019	SDP	MLB	LF	478.1					3	1	2	6	-0.5		1.7	0.1	1.3	3.0		2	2
Total	- - -	- - -	LF	954.1					3	0	4	7	-1.3		2.4	-0.2	0.9	1.1		1	1
2019	SDP	MLB	CF	15.0					0	0	1	1	-0.4		0.7	0.1	0.4	19.8		1	1
2021	BOS	MLB	CF	47.0					0	0	-1	-1	0.2		-1.2	0.0	-1.0	-38.2		-1	-1
Total	- - -	- - -	CF	62.0					0	0	0	0	-0.2		-0.5	0.1	-0.6	-9.9		0	0
2016	SDP	MLB	RF	73.2					0	0	-1	-1	0.8		-0.9	-0.5	-0.6	-18.1		-1	-1
2017	SDP	MLB	RF	1015.0					-1	1	0	0	-1.3		-1.7	-2.5	-5.6	-7.9		-1	-1
2018	SDP	MLB	RF	379.0					1	0	2	3	0.4		0.6	-1.4	-0.4	-1.4		-1	0
2019	SDP	MLB	RF	504.2					3	0	9	12	4.3		3.6	0.5	8.4	21.7		3	3
2020	TBR	MLB	RF	285.0					1	0	-2	-1	1.1		-2.3	-0.4	-1.6	-5.8		-1	-1
2021	BOS	MLB	RF	1166.0					3	0	-3	0	1.7		-0.2	-3.0	-1.6	-2.1		-3	-2
2022	MIL	MLB	RF	1043.2	0				1	1	0	2	-0.4		0.8	-0.4	0.0	-0.1		-2	-1
Total	- - -	- - -	RF	4467.0	0				8	2	5	15	6.6		-0.1	-7.8	-1.3	-0.5		-5	-4
2016	SDP	MLB	OF	73.2					0	0	-1	-1	0.8		-0.9	-0.5	-0.6	-18.1		-1	-1
2017	SDP	MLB	OF	1015.0					-1	1	0	0	-1.3		-1.7	-2.5	-5.6	-7.9		-1	-1
2018	SDP	MLB	OF	855.0					1	-1	4	4	-0.4		1.3	-1.7	-0.8	-1.1		-1	-1
2019	SDP	MLB	OF	998.0					6	1	12	19	3.4		6.0	0.7	10.1	13.1		6	6
2020	TBR	MLB	OF	285.0					1	0	-2	-1	1.1		-2.3	-0.4	-1.6	-5.8		-1	-1
2021	BOS	MLB	OF	1213.0					3	0	-4	-1	1.9		-1.4	-3.0	-2.5	-3.1		-3	-3
2022	MIL	MLB	OF	1043.2	0				1	1	0	2	-0.4		0.8	-0.4	0.0	-0.1		-2	-1
Total	- - -	- - -	OF	5483.1	0				11	2	9	22	5.0		1.8	-7.8	-1.0	-0.3		-3	-3

[CRF]

If we're talking about trading Kep somewhere...and I do think we need to do that...I'd be ok with Renfroe coming here. Don't know if Mil is looking to trade him or not. Also depends on what we're giving up. There's also the matter of him being with four teams in seven years...why? Is he a clubhouse problem? If we're talking about Renfroe over Garlick...well that's not even an argument. See ya Kyle!

[Riverbrian]

Current Roster OF. This is what they did last year. 

2022 OPS

Byron Buxton - .833

Nick Gordon - .743

Kyle Garlick - .717

Trevor Larnach - .712

Matt Wallner - .709

Max Kepler - .666

Alex Kirilloff - .651

Gilberto Celestino - .615

Mark Contreras - .441 

 

Y'all comfortable with our OF offense. 

[HrbieFan]

Brewers need more bats, not fewer. Don't see them moving Hunter 

[Otaknam]

The team does need a right handed bat, especially in the outfield. They have too many young lefty bats in Kiroloff, Kepler, Larnach, and Wallner. Gordon proved his value with position versatility so he should stay. Kepler will likely be traded, and Kiroloff, Larnach and Wallner are similar players with good power but lots of strikeouts. Of the three I think Kiroloff has the most upside as a player who could hit for a high average, be a doubles machines with his best position first. Wallner has the best speed, strong arm and athleticism. To his credit Larnach lost weight last year and looked to be in great shape. If one of these gets traded Larnach is the most likely for the reasons given.

[miracleb]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Current Roster OF. This is what they did last year. 

2022 OPS

Byron Buxton - .833

Nick Gordon - .743

Kyle Garlick - .717

Trevor Larnach - .712

Matt Wallner - .709

Max Kepler - .666

Alex Kirilloff - .651

Gilberto Celestino - .615

Mark Contreras - .441 

 

Y'all comfortable with our OF offense. 

If you don't see/anticipate big improvements from Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff......then you don't see any future for the Twins anyway.....

[DJL44]

I am more interested in Manuel Margot of the Rays. RH bat who is a good defender. He's getting too expensive for Tampa.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Is there some reason we couldn't keep Kep in right and put Renfroe in left? Gordon is a better fit as super utility than everyday LF. Larnach and Kirilloff haven't proven they can stay on the field let alone produce. We haven't had offense come from left field since Rosario was let go. If we can play Rooker in left a few years ago I'm guessing Renfroe can more then handle it.

Not just for weitz41 but for all the doubters: Gordon played CF when Buxton couldn’t play during first half and played LF almost every other day. Why is he not a starter based on his offense in 2022? His offense matches Rosario’s less 8-10 homers. Young, can run, SS arm…….don’t understand why he’s not penciled in for LF everyday & occasionally in CF or 2B? Hit .270 last season with 40 double potential!

My opinion, just because you can play multiple positions shouldn’t relegate you to playing 3 times a week at varying spots. If Larnach/Kirriloff can hit with some pop & hit .275 or better then carve a spot in right or left and move Gordon around where/when needed. Don’t see the benefit in not continuing the opportunity for Gordon from the jump in 2023 based on real 2022 results!!

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

If you don't see/anticipate big improvements from Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff......then you don't see any future for the Twins anyway.....

I'm not afraid of young players. I encourage the utilization of young players because options are a wonderful thing in case they struggle. Teams need 600K Talent so they can spend elsewhere, they need to develop.  

Do I anticipate big improvements from Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff?

Aniticpate is the wrong word. I'm hopeful for improvements because it's vital for today and tomorrow.

What I am completely against is this. Anticipating big improvements with all eggs in that anticipation basket. And then when it doesn't happen having nowhere to turn.

We can roster 5 outfielders and find playing time for those who will earn it but right now... Nick Gordon is our 2nd best OF... that leaves us with a lot of anticipating.    

    

 

 

[rv78]

I'd pass. Anyone who thinks a career .240 hitter (Renfro) is significantly better than a career .232 hitter (Kepler) with both having nearly identical OBP just because he's right-handed needs to reevaluate their priorities. 

[puckstopper1]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I doubt Milwaukee is looking to trade a player who provides offense. The Brewers are looking to add bats to their roster. 

Agreed.  Why would Milwaukee part with Renfroe unless they get a very good return - likely significantly more than Hernandez fetched.

[AceWrigley]

Possible that Renfroe might be non-tendered by the Brew Crew?

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Possible that Renfroe might be non-tendered by the Brew Crew?

My thought as well. I wouldn't say it's super likely, but also not impossible. If he's non-tendered I'd scoop him up and say goodbye to Garlick.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, puckstopper1 said:

Agreed.  Why would Milwaukee part with Renfroe unless they get a very good return - likely significantly more than Hernandez fetched.

 

4 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Possible that Renfroe might be non-tendered by the Brew Crew?

Quite the range of projected outcomes. ?

[AceWrigley]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

 

Quite the range of projected outcomes. ?

A most assuredly possible maybe, but it looks like MR. Renfroe is to remain with the Sudsmen.

[Vanimal46]

 

[Riverbrian]

The Angels maybe finally addressing the issue that has plaqued them for a long time. 

Depth

If they keep this up. Having Trout and Ohtani might matter in 2023. 

[Rosterman]

Well, that opinion solved. Who should we look at next?