Ranking the Twins Arbitration Decisions by Difficulty Level

[Nick Nelson]

Friday marks the deadline for MLB teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The Minnesota Twins have a number of decisions to make, ranging from no-brainer to head-scratcher.

Let's review each arbitration tender candidate case by case, in order from easiest to most difficult stay-or-go calls.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

Minnesota's front office got a few of these decisions out of the way early by waiving Jake Cave (claimed by Baltimore), Danny Coulombe, and Cody Stashak. All would have been eligible for arbitration, albeit with fairly modest projected salaries. 

They also took care of business already with Kyle Garlick, agreeing on a one-year, $750,000 contract. It's barely above the league minimum, but the move to strike an early deal does signal at least some level of intent for the Twins to stick with Garlick as a right-handed complement to their LH-heavy corner outfield mix. 

Eight players remain who are in the designated service-time range – between three and six years – where they can start to negotiate their own salary. On Friday the Twins will need to commit to tendering a contract and keeping them for 2023 (barring a trade) or letting them go.

Here's a case-by-case breakdown, starting with the easiest of easy decisions. (Salary projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.)

8. Luis Arraez, 1B

• Year 2 of 4 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $5 million

The reigning All-Star and batting champ is a lovely bargain in the $5 million range. He still has three years of team control remaining so the Twins do have some leverage for extension talks, but there's not a ton of incentive to pursue one for a 25-year-old with bad knees.

7. Jorge Alcalá, RHP

• Year 1 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $800K

The right-hander technically accrued a year of service in 2022 while making only two appearances due to an elbow issue that never got right. He didn't need surgery and is expected back at full strength next spring, so there's no reason to think twice about bringing back Alcalá, owner of a career 3.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 87 ⅔ MLB innings, at essentially the league minimum.

6. Caleb Thielbar, LHP

• Year 2 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $2.4 million

You don't see many guys entering their second year of arbitration at the age of 35. But then, you don't see many stories like Caleb Thielbar. His mildly escalating cost is the only reason you'd have slight pause in extending a contract, but $2.4 million is a paltry sum for the kind of performance Thielbar provided last year. He'll be a cost-efficient centerpiece of bullpen planning.

5. Jorge López, RHP

• Year 2 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $3.7 million

Here's where the decisions start to get a little thornier. I'm not going to say keeping López is a tough call, because they'll do it without hesitation, but nearly $4 million could be viewed as a hefty price tag based on what he did for the Twins (4.37 ERA) and in his career prior to 2022 (6.04 ERA). Alas, his first spectacular four months in Baltimore compelled the Twins to part with three prospects for him at the deadline, and will compel them to tender a contract – especially since he has another year of team control in 2024.

4. Tyler Mahle, RHP

• Year 3 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $7.2 million

It's hard to imagine how Mahle's post-trade time with the Twins could've gone worse in 2022. If he merely performed badly, you'd chalk it up as a rough second half or adjustment to new scenery, and hope for a rebound to previous form. If he tore a labrum in his shoulder or elbow ligament, you'd non-tender without a second thought. Instead, his mysterious recurring shoulder fatigue kept him from being able to pitch at all, leaving the front office with no choice but to gamble $7 million on this issue disappearing in the offseason. They'll do it, especially because of what they gave up to get him, but it's really hard to plan confidently around him at this point.

3. Emilio Pagán, RHP

• Year 3 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $3.7 million

I'm not saying this decision should be remotely difficult. But ... there's a reason the Twins kept Pagán around all year despite having ample reason to jettison him. The guy has legitimately excellent stuff. He averaged 12 K/9 with a 14% swinging strike rate. But he also got crushed, for a third straight season, because he has shown no ability to consistently execute. With such a long-running sample of failure, the choice to move on at almost $4 million should be obvious. But I don't get the sense it's viewed that way.

2. Chris Paddack, RHP

• Year 2 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $2.4 million

The righty's past standing as one of the game's better young pitchers, and his three remaining seasons of team control, were key reasons the Twins pulled the trigger on a deal that brought him over alongside Pagan in exchange for Taylor Rogers just ahead of Opening Day. Paddack only lasted five starts before his partially torn UCL gave way, requiring a second Tommy John surgery that will knock him out for almost all of next year.

Essentially, the Twins would be paying about $2.5 million for the opportunity to try and get one more season out of Paddack, in 2024 when he'll be in his final year of arbitration. That's probably worth it, but hardly a lock, especially when you consider the opportunity cost of needing to dedicate a 40-man roster spot all winter before you can move him to the 60-day IL next spring. While the upside was once easy to see, you now really have to squint: he's got a 97 career ERA+ and in 2024 he'll be a 28-year-old coming off his second TJ surgery. The track record for pitchers who've undergone it twice is not promising.

1. Gio Urshela, 3B

• Year 3 of 3 in arbitration
• Projected 2023 Salary: $9.2 million

A funny story: In mid-September I tweeted a 2023 roster projection that didn't include Urshela, and Athletic beat writer Dan Hayes challenged me by saying the veteran third baseman should be considered a lock for at least a tender. Dan tends to be pretty plugged into what's going on and instinctually sound, so I started to adjust my thinking. I even came around on the idea as Urshela finished strong with a .333/.404/.425 slash line in the final month while Jose Miranda failed to impress much at third base.

Then, after the season ended, Dan informed me he'd softened his stance and was no longer so sure Urshela would be tendered. (He expressed this view on a recent Gleeman and the Geek appearance.) It seems the consensus on Urshela is that while he's a good and desirable player, that price tag is a tad more than you'd like to pay when you've already got some options. 

For the Twins, this decision hinges on a few factors. Are they confident enough in Miranda and his defense (or the depth behind him) to commit as a full-time third baseman? Do they have other offseason plans, like signing Brandon Drury or Jose Abreu, that would negate any need for Urshela on the roster? Does the front office believe they could tender and trade him, to keep their options open?

I lean toward the last one, so I do think he'll be tendered. But it's far from a lock.

 

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[DJL44]

Urshela would be the top 3B on the free agent market if non-tendered. Any team looking for a 3B would be glad to have him at his projected salary.

[Vanimal46]

Good article Nick. I agree that Urshela is the most difficult decision and I can go either way. He’s a fine 2 WAR player with some clutch moments in 2022. $9-10 million is a slight overpay but not too egregious. Hypothetically if he were a free agent right now, and we just signed him to a 1/$9 million contract, I don’t believe fans will be waving their new rebranded Twins flags in celebration. 

[MABB1959]

Most are so inexpensive but definitely would let them all go but Urshela and Arraez.  IMO the rest are hope and prayer players, been there done that!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I continued to be shocked there is even a discussion of whether Urshela will be tendered a contract.

In what world would the Twins just throw away a player who was one of their better offensive players last year, that plays a position of need in the system, and that has a relatively cost controlled contract on a one-year deal.

On a larger note, looking through your list, all of these decisions are easy tenders.  They all get offered.  $35M for 8 players that should be positive contributors next year?  Why is this even a discussion?

Amazing...

[nicksaviking]

Funny how if you do those rankings by USEFULLNESS, Urshela is probably 2nd only to Arraez. With that lens, I keep him, but only if he's willing and able to do the Eduardo Escobar/Marwin Gonzalez super utility bit, because I don't want him dedicated solely to 3B next year.

Also, if the Twins absolutely won't get one of the top four shortstops, then there's no reason to clear payroll, and, he'd probably be my 5th choice to actually man the position. Way ahead of any of the other free agent shortstops anyway. He was capable of playing the position in New York.

[mikelink45]

This is an interesting exercise - if I sign Lopez and Pagan I immediately trade them.  

Mahle is an example of the FO not doing due diligence - same with Paddock.  We are stuck with both and hope for the best.

Yes we keep Urshela (unless a good trade surfaces). 

There is no question about the rest.

[BK432]

40 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Most are so inexpensive but definitely would let them all go but Urshela and Arraez.  IMO the rest are hope and prayer players, been there done that!

You'd.....let Jorge Alcala go instead of pay him $800K? I don't even know where to start with that....

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I would not argue if the Twins felt Pagan needed to go.  However, I think they should keep him, put him in low-leverage situations and see if he can gain trust.  With his stuff, he provides a modicum of insurance for the late inning guys.

Paddack is extremely cheap.  Both he an Mahle have a track record of success and warrant a pickup (as well as the perception of sunk cost in the trades if they release them) for a team starving for pitching.

I can not come up with one reason for any of the others to be non-tendered.  Letting any of those guys go for absolutely nothing makes zero sense.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks again Nick for another no nonsence article.

#8 Arraez, 7 Alcala & 6 Theilbar are homegrown and have proven themselves are slam dunks

#5 Lopez, 4 Mahle, 3 Pagan, 2 Paddack come from bad trades and were disappointments, the main reason of hesitation to non tender is to save face. There's hope that Lopez & Mahle will come back, but in my mind there's large doubt of Paddack will ever contribute anything for the Twins, Pagan is a lost cause he's occuping a valuable roster spot. Paddack should be traded if we can find a taker and Pagan should be non tendered.

#1 Urshela is different because he contributed to the club but this coming season Miranda will be the focus at 3B. My expectation is that after Correa has mentored Miranda this off season, he'll be a transformed 3B, Urshela thus will be expendable. BTV doesn't have him much for trade value but there's not much out there for 3B, where we could get something for him in trade. But if not, I can see him being non tendered

[Rosterman]

No one is going to trade for Paddack and pay him to sit out a season. They will wait to see if the Twins release him, and then go from there.

 

Same with tendering Pagan and Urshela. If you are mainly doing it as possible movable pieces, you don't think other teams will see that and offer trade pieces accordingly. Unless someone desperately needs a quality third baseman because of injury, and the team is in a competitive state. The decisions on Pagan and Urshela is IF the money spent could be better spent elsewhere. On a better bat, bullpen arm, or a need like catcher and top rotation arm. That's $13 mil you could possibly use as an upgrade.

But, the team did sign Garlick to be the 7th or 8th man in the outfield.

[Mike Sixel]

No way I bring back Pagan. This is why he is, year after year. A tease. No way. No possible way. Not even if he paid the Twins to come back.

The others? I keep them all, but I think for a few seconds about Urshela. If they think he can play SS (assuming they don't come to agreement with one of the big 4) for a few month, I keep him as the placeholder for Lewis / Lee 100%. Also, I'm not sure I love Miranda as much as others. Urshela put up 2.4 fWAR last year. I'd gladly take that again for what they'll pay him. And that's at 3B.....he's more valuable at SS (if he can play D at all). OTOH, I'd not be shocked if they dealt him or let him go. 

Lopez makes me nervous, but it isn't real money at all. 

[DocBauer]

I would have dumped Pagan last summer. So the ONLY reason to tender him is because you think someone will bite on a bag of balls or similar in a deal for him. 

Paddack is making a drop in the bucket when the vast millions of dollars of a payroll are concerned, and worth keeping around for 2024, if not a late 2023 appearance.

The rest are all easy keeps for sure. 

I think the only reason there is some question on tendering Urshela is not because he's not liked, not because he might not fit...though that's questionable when you look at possible roster construction scenarios...but simply a question about his trade value to another team. Will another team think he's good enough, what they need, to pay him $9.2M for 1yr. If the Twins offseason moves dictate that he's a role player, and not a fixture, they are over paying him. So if nobody else out there needs/wants a 3B like Urshela, then he's over priced to be on the Twins bench. But I believe he's tendered, and I believe there's got to be a couple teams, at least, where he would be an upgrade to what they have and would be willing to make a small-ish trade with the Twins for him.

[ashbury]

What to do with Urshela may be an open question.  Non-tendering him is not.  He has value.  Maybe he doesn't have trade value, in terms of getting a key prospect.  But you wouldn't have to give up anything of value to have someone else take him off your hands, if events play out a certain way.  And at worst you have third base covered.  May sound like faint praise, but in this case it's still praise.

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

No one is going to trade for Paddack and pay him to sit out a season. They will wait to see if the Twins release him, and then go from there.

I would think there would be several teams that would be interesting.  If he was a free agent, I'm sure he'd get a 2 year, $10 million deal, if not more. 

I wouldn't mind the Twins signing him to something like a three-year, $14 million deal (paying him a little more upfront rather than at the back end). Maybe something like $4 million in 2023, $4 million in 2024 and $6 million in 2025. That way, you kind of get back one of the years after the lost 2022 and 2023. 

[Seth Stohs]

I'd try to see if Mahle is up for a longer-term deal... Maybe something like $7 million in 2023, $10 million in 2024 and $13 million in 2025. Buy out two years of arbitration... 

I don't think Mahle would consider it though because if he proves himself healthy in 2022 and has a strong season, he could get the qualifying offer which would give him that $20 million in 2024 (which he'd probably decline and get much more in free agency). 

[Steve71]

On Urshela, I certainly tender him and pencil him in to play SS until and if Lewis/Lee or someone else arrives.  This all assumes we don't get one of the big FA SS's, which seems a likely outcome but you never know.

I would cut Paddack, unless there is insurance to pay the salary for another year.  The roster spot has value, and he is now a long shot to ever contribute.

I would NOT extend Mahle and let him play out his contract year.

Pagan needs a change of scenery....like Japan.

[roger]

Love your proposal, Seth.  Especially for a guy so many here consider to be worthless.  I am confident he will return to the pitcher he was and be a valuable piece of a Twins rotation that is built to win games 2 thru 5.  

[tony&rodney]

I'm not sure why Urshela is the most difficult decision? The $9.2M figure is a sh**ton of money for many but almost a pedestrian number for a productive useful MLB player. Perhaps Urshela draws interest via a trade to bring back a needed relief pitcher but he should be aboard if the Twins envision him getting a similar number of plate appearances again next season. 

Pagan and Paddack are sentimental for Falvey but there is scant reason to have them on the roster in 2023. Maybe a team will consider those guys as a the end pieces of a trade. Pagan has displayed talent but is consistently below all reasonable expectations. Paddack has an enormous hill to climb as he attempts to come back from his second surgery. He may make it back in 2024 but will struggle and then maybe he manages to reach average status by 2025. I wish him well but the Twins should just move on.

The other five are easy tender decisions. Yes. I would not look to extend any of the players currently in their arbitration years.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

I would think there would be several teams that would be interesting.  If he was a free agent, I'm sure he'd get a 2 year, $10 million deal, if not more. 

I wouldn't mind the Twins signing him to something like a three-year, $14 million deal (paying him a little more upfront rather than at the back end). Maybe something like $4 million in 2023, $4 million in 2024 and $6 million in 2025. That way, you kind of get back one of the years after the lost 2022 and 2023. 

I like this idea, and have stated that we might be all demanding an extension by 2024 if the surgery and rehab work out. But I think we all agree we have to see positive results first.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not sure why Urshela is the most difficult decision? The $9.2M figure is a sh**ton of money for many but almost a pedestrian number for a productive useful MLB player. Perhaps Urshela draws interest via a trade to bring back a needed relief pitcher but he should be aboard if the Twins envision him getting a similar number of plate appearances again next season.

It’s identical to the Eddie Rosario non-tender decision 2 years ago. Urshela is a slight overpay for the value he provides. I lean towards tendering him but can absolutely see the reasons why it’s better off to let him go. 

Is there really a drop off between the WAR Urshela provides vs. Miranda? 2 WAR is not a high bar to clear if Miranda really is a core player now and in the future.

What else can we do with an additional $9+ million to spend on free agents or trades? Is having him on roster better than spending that money on a high end bullpen arm or Correa + Rodon + Abreu?

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'd try to see if Mahle is up for a longer-term deal... Maybe something like $7 million in 2023, $10 million in 2024 and $13 million in 2025. Buy out two years of arbitration... 

I don't think Mahle would consider it though because if he proves himself healthy in 2022 and has a strong season, he could get the qualifying offer which would give him that $20 million in 2024 (which he'd probably decline and get much more in free agency). 

Going to disagree only slightly with you Seth. I think Gray was a 2yr deal with a "we'll see" at the end of 2023, if not earlier. Mahle was brought in as a potential "steal" for a pitcher just reaching the right time of stuff and experience, to help in 2022...which didn't happen, unfortunately...and be a potential re-sign for the future. His injury/dead arm issues could actually play in the Twins favor going forward. 

I just don't see the Twins making an extension offer offseason while there is still concern. They tend to play "safe" at times. I believe, if they like the medicals, they will bump to $7 or $8, $12, and $15, with an option for $18. They might go $10, $13, $18, and $20. But health is a factor, as always, as well as what Mahle does and what he believes his worth is.

Is Mahle, and his reps, convinced of his value to potentially exceed that? Just too much to try and predict what the future holds. But again, I think the FO traded for him because he was getting close to the time in his career where stuff and experience moves him to another level. Think Ray a year or so ago. 

But I think the FO was looking at him as someone who might just be about ready to transform in to a top of the rotation SP. And if there is ANY indication of that happening they would be smart to lock him up

 

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s identical to the Eddie Rosario non-tender decision 2 years ago. Urshela is a slight overpay for the value he provides. I lean towards tendering him but can absolutely see the reasons why it’s better off to let him go. 

Is there really a drop off between the WAR Urshela provides vs. Miranda? 2 WAR is not a high bar to clear if Miranda really is a core player now and in the future.

 

Urshela's oWAR for this year was 2.8, dWAR 0.7;  Miranda was at oWAR 1.7, dWAR  -1.2.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Urshela's oWAR for this year was 2.8, dWAR 0.7;  Miranda was at oWAR 1.7, dWAR  -1.2.

That's partly related to the position they played. And the number of games. But I agree, urshela is a better player. The question is ... What can they do with the saved money, is the difference that big, can Lee be the third baseman next year at some point if they have a shortstop? I don't know the answer to any of that, especially what they plan to do in free agency. 

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s identical to the Eddie Rosario non-tender decision 2 years ago. Urshela is a slight overpay for the value he provides. I lean towards tendering him but can absolutely see the reasons why it’s better off to let him go. 

Is there really a drop off between the WAR Urshela provides vs. Miranda? 2 WAR is not a high bar to clear if Miranda really is a core player now and in the future.

What else can we do with an additional $9+ million to spend on free agents or trades? Is having him on roster better than spending that money on a high end bullpen arm or Correa + Rodon + Abreu?

Urshela has much better numbers than Rosario had. IMHO the Twins would be foolish not to sign him. I like the idea of moving him back to ss if they can't sign C4.  Pagan must go.

[Whitey333]

The fact that Pagan is even in the discussion is ridiculous.  He should have been sent packing a long time ago.  I get so sick of management saying he has great stuff.  Big deal if he can't get results.  His "great stuff" cost the Twins about 12 games last year between losses and blown saves.  Statistically he's been one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball over the past three years.  Dump him.  

[roger]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Urshela has much better numbers than Rosario had. IMHO the Twins would be foolish not to sign him. I like the idea of moving him back to ss if they can't sign C4.  Pagan must go.

Many forget, however, that one of Eddie's numbers that was better were RBI.  Some of us still believe those are important.

[Major League Ready]

I sure would like to know what Kirilloff's doctors are telling the FO.  That would influence the overall plan.  Being able to move Miranda to first and have Urshela at 3B works well.  However, Abreau or Bell make more sense as the odds of Kirilloff returning to full health go down. and we need to determine if Miranda can play 3B at some point.  I think it's 60/40 they keep him.

[GeorgiaBaller]

It amazes me to see the casual regard that comes with the approach to Arraez.   "A 25 yr old with bad knees".  For an organization that frothed over a slob like Sano who did not care about being on the field and was constantly hurt, along with being a liability at first base, you saw the opposite from Arraez.  He drastically improved at first and will get lots of off season work---he will come into camp as a solid 1st baseman.  And he fought to get on the field every game he could.  He costs a fraction of what they were giving MS---and yet he is constantly brushed over as an avg player because he doesn't hit 20 HR's.  

Urshela is not a bad ballplayer.  I would rather start Miranda at 3rd, but Gio is pretty solid.  is he worth 9 mil?  hmmm.  

The consideration here is that the twins still do not have a SS, Catcher, #1 starter or a Left Fielder.  You can't win in the playoffs without a solid defensive left fielder---that's not Garlick, Larnach, or Kirrilof---but maybe Ben Gordon if he gets the reps in the offseason he needs in the OF.   He's the only athletic option with a good arm.  

Arcala and Theilbar are no brainers to sign.  The other guys are pretty much..meh..... for the $ and injury history. But since the twins like to shop the over 100K mile used car lot, they will sign at least one,  and that one will be in the repair shop as much as he is out driving.  Quit buying junkers to fix up, the shed is already full.

If the twins overspend, go pay a bundle of money to the South American and Carribean scouts in the Astros, Reds and/or Rays organization.  The future of baseball playing in front of us now is from Cuba, DR, and the lower Americas.  The eyes that are in place for the Twins do not regularly deliver.  The academies exist so the structure is there, but you need some better eyes.  You can't be more than a flash in the pan with trying to hit the Free Agent jackpot, and there is a reason guys keep jumping teams year to year.  But there has to be some FA signings in the mix---just no deals over 6 yrs, please.

I finally felt like this team had a little fire and some identity with Correa this season.  There was a higher standard and a drive to excel around him that doesn't find its way to Okey Doke-Sota sports often. I sure enjoyed seeing a little killer in the attitude for a year-- I sure hope I can see that again sometime in the next 5   

 

 

[mnfireman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/twins-tender-contract-to-emilio-pagan.html