What About The "Other" Carlos?

[Sherry Cerny]

As crazy as the season was, the off-season seems even crazier and filled with more drama. While fans want the front office to land Carlos (Correa), bringing in the other Carlos (Rodón) would make the most sense for the club and could solidify the Twins starting rotation.

Image courtesy of Stan Szeto, USA Today

The jury is still out on the starting rotation for the Twins, but it looks like Sonny Gray is the anchor, with Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, and Tyler Mahle penciled into spots with question marks. If the team experiences anything like they did last season, injuries always loom heavily with this club. 

Taking on one more starter would benefit the club immensely, especially with uncertainty about Kenta Maeda's health and how he might pitch following surgery. 

Even with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan at the top of the rotation, Carlos Rodon would easily be the team's ace, something that the Twins have not had of late. Jose Berrios was the closest the Twins have come to an ace in a long time, and the fans and club need more at the top of their rotation if they want to compete. 

With the Giants in 2022, Rodón had a 2.88 ERA and led the majors with a 2.25 FIP. He finished second in the National League with 237 strikeouts and hit double-digits 11 times, a franchise record. Rodón made a career-high 31 starts, putting aside (at least for now) the concerns about his shoulder that limited his market a year ago. 2022 was his best season since entering the majors. At 29 years old, his market this offseason should include a lot of teams. 

Watching pitchers like Jacob de Grom, Justin Verlander, and C.C. Sabathia, Rodón has the potential to continue for several seasons, provided he can stay healthy. His contract last offseason was a two-year $44 million deal with the Giants, but it included an opt-out clause that he took advantage of after the season. Since 2015, he has outperformed his contract and is worth more than what he made.  The team that signs him this offseason will give up a draft pick as San Francisco made him a qualifying offer, which he declined. However, that should not stop him from getting at least four years with an average annual value of over $25 million.

He pitched for a long time with the White Sox and knows the AL Central Division. However, it can be assumed that Rodon will be courted by nearly every team that intends to contend for a playoff spot in 2023 and beyond.  

As the non-tender deadline creeps up, additional players will become available. Several pitchers could potentially fill the Twins need, but Rodón would be a good fit in the league, division, and clubhouse. 

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[Trov]

I am not big on him for a long term deal.  He has shown a couple of good seasons recently, but has long history of injury, and it took him a long time to pitch at a high level in MLB.  He was expected to hit the ground running with Sox, and they did not even give him a QO.  Very few pitchers pitch well into their mid-30's and many drop off early 30's with increased injuries.  Sure, you can point to future hall of famers as guys that pitched well into their late 30's, but for every one of them there are dozens of guys like Mad bum, David Price, Chris Sale, (who pitched well when healthy but has not been healthy much).

Maybe because it took him several years to figure out the MLB level he will do fine in 30's, but I am not willing to break bank on a guy that could be on IL much of it, and or lose production.  I would be fine with a 3 year deal with vesting options based on innings pitched, but no 5 plus year deal.  

[mikelink45]

I like your take - he would make the rotation look great.  In all the FA signings the length guarantees a few regret years, but right now the pitcher looks like he would make the biggest difference. Looking at the team without Correa we still have:

CF - Celestine and Buxton with Gordon in reserve 

LF - Larnach, Gordon, Martin, Kiriloff

RF - Kepler, Garlick, Larnach

3B - Urshela and Miranda with Polanco available to slide over

SS - Martin, Lee, Lewis, Gordon, Polanco (until Lewis and Lee arrive it is not a strength but we can survive).

2B - Polanco, Julien, Arraez, Martin

1B - Arraez, Kiriloff, Miranda

C - Jeffers, Isola, Leon (Our weakest position)

You have already described the rotation and one more really good arm pushes us over the top into the middle ranked rotations.

Then there is the BP with Duran/Alcala/Thielbar/Jax to anchor and some question marks behind them.

We have the potential - we just need Terry Francona to put it together.

[Blyleven2011]

I like rodon but he will sign elsewhere  ...

My guess Dodgers  as they are always throwing money at top free agent pitchers  and there isn't alot in the top tier to choose from this year ...

Dodger threw tons of money towards bauer , way more than he was worth ...

When it comes to pitching , the Dodgers are very aggressive  , the trade to Washington  to get scherzer  is another example  ...

Good write up though and I would like to have him , giving up a prospect  and the reluctance the twins have for not spending big on quality pitching  , I don't see it happening  ...

[roger]

I am puzzled, Sherry, every time I read a post saying the Twins should sign ACE pitcher X.  Have never responded with the reasons why I believe it isn't needed.

To sign any ACE free agent pitcher the Twins are going to get an aging starter who has performed well for at least a few years.  They will likely need to pay top dollar for many years.  Looking back at this type of pitcher signed over the recent past indicates many aren't all that great for their new team.  Furthermore, there is a strong chance they will be mediocre over the later years of the contract.  

in reality, there are bloody few Jason Verlander's out there.  And the truth of this Series win by the Astros is that their pitchers #2-#4 were the reason they won.  And that is both my point and question.  Aren't starting pitchers #2-#5 equally important as the #1?  Assuming good health, which is both unpredictable and unlikely, winning games two and three of any three game series is as important as winning game one.  Mathematically winning 2 of 3 is more important.

So my position is to have a solid #1 starter, which the Twins have with Sonny Gray.  Then I want the Twins to be able to have their starting pitcher be equal to or better than the opposition over the next four days.  With Mahle, Maeda, Ryan and Ober, I expect the Twins just may have that.  Add Paddack who should return late in the season and two young guns, Varland and SWR, and I see a starting rotation that I like a lot.

And the good news is that they aren't paying $20M-$30M for five or more years to one guy who is close to the downside end of his career.  Their starting rotations had a lot of problems over the past years.  But trades for Maeda, Ryan, Gray, Mahle and Paddack together with their development pipeline beginning to arrive should make 2023 an exciting year.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, roger said:

And the good news is that they aren't paying $20M-$30M for five or more years to one guy who is close to the downside end of his career.  Their starting rotations had a lot of problems over the past years.  But trades for Maeda, Ryan, Gray, Mahle and Paddack together with their development pipeline beginning to arrive should make 2023 an exciting year.

This is the position that Falvey has taken and I agree that it hurts to sign a player and not get the expected production. I also agree that trades and development are  the key to improvement in a pitching staff. I would love for the Twins to add Pablo Lopez. Burnes or Woodruff would be ideal but I'm not sure the Twins have the quality of player needed to acquire either Brewer starting pitcher. The Twins do have some emerging starting pitching which may either produce for the Twins or be used as assets to gain some needed position players via trade. Ober, Winder, SWR, and Varland are obvious guys in that group. 

Where we may disagree is with the percieved quality of the pitchers the Twins currently employ. In my observations, Gray is a decent #3 with Ryan and Mahle as good #4 starting pitchers. Maeda is returning from time off and likely is a better fit in the bullpen. Paddack may return in 2024 as a potential #5 guy, but he is fighting some serious odds of returning to any relevance as an MLB pitcher. I like these pitchers but they need to slide down in their spots.

Thus, the Twins could acquire a #2 guy via trade (Lopez or Woodruff) and then it becomes necessary to sign someone to fill the top spot. The competition for a pitcher like Carlos Rodon will be pretty fierce but I'm aboard with a 5/$140M offer to have someone take the pressure off of those younger guys who the Twins hope will develop into the next Bieber or Burnes. Sign both Carlos guys.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I like rodon but he will sign elsewhere  ...

My guess Dodgers  as they are always throwing money at top free agent pitchers  and there isn't alot in the top tier to choose from this year ...

Dodger threw tons of money towards bauer , way more than he was worth ...

When it comes to pitching , the Dodgers are very aggressive  , the trade to Washington  to get scherzer  is another example  ...

Good write up though and I would like to have him , giving up a prospect  and the reluctance the twins have for not spending big on quality pitching  , I don't see it happening  ...

Bauer is just about the only top free agent pitcher the Dodgers have brought in in recent memory. They built their rotation almost entirely internally. I'm not saying they aren't a threat to sign Rodon, because they're a threat to sign literally everyone, but spending big money on FA pitchers isn't their MO at all. 

They traded for Scherzer midseason, but also got Trea Turner in that deal, and then didn't extend Scherzer. They traded for David Price, but that was to get Mookie Betts. They've extended their homegrown HOF pitcher Clayton Kershaw, but they really don't bring in any long-term, high priced FA starters frequently. Grienke in 2013 and Bauer in 2021 (both of which will be only 3 year deals) are the only truly big money signings they've made in the last 10 years for starting pitching. Since they're the Dodgers they're always capable of these kinds of signings, but they most certainly aren't "always throwing money at top free agent pitchers."

[EGFTShaw]

There are very FEW true ACE pitchers in MLB.  Long gone are Johan, Pedro, etc..

Rodon would be our "Ace" but he shows he can do this game after game, win a CY or two I am not sure.

Right now, I would put Mad Max, Darth Verlander and a Healthy "Hans Gruber" DeGrom in that category.  There are other very good pitchers who may obtain this designation, Otani, Brewer1&Brewer2, Cole.

So, although I want this shutdown pitcher, I am not sure he is gettable.

Initially I was cool to Rodon, but I have been warming up to him for 2 reasons.

1) He's a lefty #1 pitcher. (I differentiate between Ace and #1).
2) There is a dearth of options out there.  I am not trading Brooks Lee to the Brew Crew or anyone else unless it gets me Otani. (In what universe would THAT happen)

So, sign Carlos*2, trade Max (someone will fix his swing and get a big gain out of it), to get a RH OF.  I am not opposed to bringing in Jansen and having Duron, Lopez and Jansen in my BP.

Edited November 17, 2022 by EGFTShaw
Typo

[MTV]

Right now it’s really a choice of what big FA do you want: a high-end shortstop (Correa, Bogaerts, or Swanson, as they’ve all been receiving  interest from the FO) or an Ace in Carlos Rodon? We have a lot of money but not enough for both, unless this front office wants to leave all other fields (bullpen, outfield) incredibly weak

[MABB1959]

Waste of brain cells.  We never go in for a really good player.  Twins are yet to be part of any of the Trade Rumors on MLB.com

We will wait until the dumpster is full and sift through that.

 

[ashbury]

I want to believe.  31 starts is not easy to do in the majors, and he averaged nearly 6 innings doing it this year.  Past injuries should count less than recent history.  And yet... it keeps being that left shoulder.  At the end of 2022, again.  Not fluke injuries you can explain away.  Elbows and shoulders are the career killers, duh.

I was nervous about Mahle's record of shoulder woes when that trade was made.  I probably should be leery now of committing multiple years to Rodón, which is what will be required given there will be interest from all directions.  And an incentive-laden offer won't win this auction.

The old cliche that the best moves are the ones you don't make, seems to apply yet again.  I've been critical of the FO, but I don't envy the decisions they have to make either.  This one is tough.  But I say no, unless there is some financial ace they have up their sleeve that I can't anticipate, that makes the last years of any contract not matter.

[DocBauer]

I understand warning bells going off for any player or pitcher who's had any sort of injury issue in the past, especially considering some of the injury bug issues the Twins have had as of late.

But honestly, with little exception, what player or pitcher hasn't been injured at some point? Verlander was a horse for years...even in some down years...until he wasn't. (Which makes his comeback all that more amazing). Rodon is an injury risk. But so is just about every single arm out there. He's had 2 good, solid, mostly healthy seasons in a row and been very good in both. 

I'm willing to go along with any risk that Rodon has, provided my medical experts don't come back alarmed. He's the one potential difference maker out there that costs money, and not players or prospects. He makes the Twins better barring something catastrophic happening. 

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Where we may disagree is with the percieved quality of the pitchers the Twins currently employ. In my observations, Gray is a decent #3 with Ryan and Mahle as good #4 starting pitchers. Maeda is returning from time off and likely is a better fit in the bullpen. Paddack may return in 2024 as a potential #5 guy, but he is fighting some serious odds of returning to any relevance as an MLB pitcher. I like these pitchers but they need to slide down in their spots.

Thus, the Twins could acquire a #2 guy via trade (Lopez or Woodruff)

I know I'm being difficult here and for that I apologize. I am at heart a nice guy and if it helps I think you are a very solid poster.  

But... I can't help myself. 

Joe Ryan had a 3.55 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.63. You got him as a 4. 

Pablo Lopez had a 3.75 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.94. You got him as a 2.

Brandon Woodruff had a 3.05 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.18. You got him as a 2.  

Where do Woodruff and Ryan file complaints? ?

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is the position that Falvey has taken and I agree that it hurts to sign a player and not get the expected production. I also agree that trades and development are  the key to improvement in a pitching staff. I would love for the Twins to add Pablo Lopez. Burnes or Woodruff would be ideal but I'm not sure the Twins have the quality of player needed to acquire either Brewer starting pitcher. The Twins do have some emerging starting pitching which may either produce for the Twins or be used as assets to gain some needed position players via trade. Ober, Winder, SWR, and Varland are obvious guys in that group. 

Where we may disagree is with the percieved quality of the pitchers the Twins currently employ. In my observations, Gray is a decent #3 with Ryan and Mahle as good #4 starting pitchers. Maeda is returning from time off and likely is a better fit in the bullpen. Paddack may return in 2024 as a potential #5 guy, but he is fighting some serious odds of returning to any relevance as an MLB pitcher. I like these pitchers but they need to slide down in their spots.

Thus, the Twins could acquire a #2 guy via trade (Lopez or Woodruff) and then it becomes necessary to sign someone to fill the top spot. The competition for a pitcher like Carlos Rodon will be pretty fierce but I'm aboard with a 5/$140M offer to have someone take the pressure off of those younger guys who the Twins hope will develop into the next Bieber or Burnes. Sign both Carlos guys.

Yes, trades are important to add. And development is key. Very few #1 SP, much less a true ACE, hit FA or are available for trade. And when they are, they are very, very expensive, one way or another. The key is finding someone just about ready to put stuff and experience together at the same time, usually late 20's, and then watch them bloom. Gausman and Ray are a couple of recent examples. Rodon is a perfect "fit" based on those factors now, and what he's done the past couple of seasons. The problem with development is it takes time. And nobody wants to hear that. But it's true. With very little exception, nobody just drafts an ACE or #1 SP. There's a reason virtually every prospect is listed as a mid rotation starter, sometimes with a bump to high side. 

I don't object to your opinion as to what the Twins have on hand right now. But I will agree to disagree on your "ranking" of the current staff. A healthy Gray is a very good pitcher and a #2 on most staffs, who throws like a #1 at times. Mahle is younger arm just reaching that right age and time where things sometimes come together. And his numbers away from Cincinnati indicate he might just be ready to blossom. Both Ryan and Ober have absolutely flashed, while still young and inexperienced. And I simply won't, and can't, speculate how good they may or may not be in the future. 

Maeda is a mystery. Despite not appearing late last season as wondered about, reports are he was throwing easy and showing fine command. He was good with the Dogers. He was GREAT with the Twins. Who shows up in 2023?

But I have to disagree that we have a #3 and a bunch of 4's. HEALTHY, and with a little more development/experience from Ryan and Ober, I think we have a couple of quality #2's and a trio of #3's.  And there's depth and "possibilities" from that depth. And while I have stated repeatedly that if I were the FO I would simply expect the worst, and just anticipate various injuries and look to add if I could, IMO, you might be under selling the arms we currently have.

Agree to disagree?

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Agree to disagree?

Yes, for sure.

Though adding Rodon and possibly another really boosts the room for error, unexpected issues, and allows for flexibility. Houston has added guys like Cole, Greinke, and Verlander and then let them go because it gave time for Valdez, Urquiddy, Garcia, Javier, and now Brown to take root. 

[DocBauer]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, for sure.

Though adding Rodon and possibly another really boosts the room for error, unexpected issues, and allows for flexibility. Houston has added guys like Cole, Greinke, and Verlander and then let them go because it gave time for Valdez, Urquiddy, Garcia, Javier, and now Brown to take root. 

And I agree with you 100%. But Greinke, Cole, and Verlander were added from outside the organization. 

And you absolutely have to allow for the young arms at some point. Sink or swim, right?  Ryan and Ober are pretty nice arms to work with. And there are others right on the cusp, maybe even Balazovic, who I'm predicting will bounce back strong.

But, again, healthy, IMO, we don't have a collection of #4 SP. And if I'm the FO and I have a chance to add to what I have without having to trade away the future,  I'm going to add a potential difference maker and work it all out later.

[Jacksson]

The team owner is named "Pohlad".

The Twins will be "0 for Carlos"

[Karbo]

If I'm running the FO I go after Correa as #1 need. I like Rodon but I feel a very good ss is the most important add at this time. As a side note, I see many folks saying they think Maeda needs to move to the pen. As I remember, the FO has some sort of agreement with him to be a starter, which he prefers. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Otaknam]

Signing Rodon would help the rotation but I don’t think he’s a number one starter. You never know about the health with multi year contracts and I wouldn’t break the bank for him. Unless some of the young players take a big step forward this team isn’t a WSERIES contender without a real ace.  Having a stable of number three starters might get you to the playoffs but not much farther. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

As a side note, I see many folks saying they think Maeda needs to move to the pen. As I remember, the FO has some sort of agreement with him to be a starter, which he prefers. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes, this may be true but it is not written specifically into his contract to my knowledge. I do believe there was an agreement and I brought this up some time ago. Another poster felt that a year on the IL might be sufficient reason to move Maeda back to the bullpen until such time as he proves himself superior and capable of throwing 100+ pitches in an outing. We won't know until Spring Training unless there is an unexpected announcement. 

[rv78]

Thanks for the article about a player that is worthy of space here. Everyone complains that the Twins don't have an Ace. Rodon is the closest thing to an Ace they are going to have the chance at this year without trading away more of the future. From what I can see it boils down to which do the Twins need more? A shortstop or an Ace? Which leads to the question of how many World Series are won by teams without an Ace? Or without a top shortstop? You really don't have to look too far back in history to find the answer. And if you only want to look at the Twins history of their 2 Championships how did they do it? Was it because of Frank Viola and Jack Morris or was Greg Gagne the difference maker?

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

And I agree with you 100%. But Greinke, Cole, and Verlander were added from outside the organization. 

And you absolutely have to allow for the young arms at some point. Sink or swim, right?  Ryan and Ober are pretty nice arms to work with. And there are others right on the cusp, maybe even Balazovic, who I'm predicting will bounce back strong.

But, again, healthy, IMO, we don't have a collection of #4 SP. And if I'm the FO and I have a chance to add to what I have without having to trade away the future,  I'm going to add a potential difference maker and work it all out later.

We are mostly saying the same thing and agree to disagree on terms.

I look at what the Twins have for pitching and what appears to be the model currently among winning teams. I will just use Houston although a few other teams are also good examples. Houston brings in some outside support: Greinke, Cole, and Verlander. The Twins bring in pitchers from outside: Maeda, Gray, Ryan, and Mahle. I will set aside Ryan because he was merely a prospect when acquired. The Twins had Berrios and Houston had McCullers. In the last few years while the Twins have struggled to get their youth established, Houston has seen the innings pile up and success follow for Valdez, Garcia, Javier, and even Urquiddy. Hunter Brown is up next. Those pitchers were put into positions behind McCullers and Verlander. Pitching is a combination of stuff and confidence. The confidence is gained from experience. Having someone like Verlander, Greinke, or Cole to lead and teach is also very helpful.

The Twins have had some poor luck with injuries. Hopefully this ends. All of Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson may emerge as premium pitchers. The Twins need to leave at least one spot for one of these emerging pitchers. Ryan has done well thus far, but it is worth a cautionary note to remember that his dominance against weaker teams has not been repeated against the stronger rosters. Ryan will hopefully improve in his outings against the strongest teams. I'm a fan of developing/giving innings to Varland and/or Ober this year and using guys in the bullpen as well, especially Winder. Where my view may differ from others is in looking at Gray and Mahle. (Maeda is another conversation because he has had some success but now returns from injury and it might be best if he builds up or contributes in the bullpen.) I would like to see the Twins add Rodon and another pitcher (Woodruff or Lopez) via trade because these guys are better pitchers in innings pitched and effectiveness due to their command and control of stronger repertoires in my view. Just adding one guy would have benefits to the starting staff in my opinion. The designation of numbers to starting pitchers can be quite arbitrary but when Houston line up Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Javier, Garcia, and so forth one needs to think of where any of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda would fit.

In sum, let's add a minimum of one pitcher at the top of our rotation this year, hope to see continued progress from Joe Ryan, and the emergence of another from among Varland, Ober, Winder, and Woods Richardson.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, this may be true but it is not written specifically into his contract to my knowledge. I do believe there was an agreement and I brought this up some time ago. Another poster felt that a year on the IL might be sufficient reason to move Maeda back to the bullpen until such time as he proves himself superior and capable of throwing 100+ pitches in an outing. We won't know until Spring Training unless there is an unexpected announcement. 

All the incentives in Maedas's contract are around starting.  His contract is 8/$25m so his base salary isn't high but he gets more for starts and innings pitched.  Moving to the pen is going to cost him half his paycheck and he will be cranky, as would any of us. 

Contract Notes:

• Innings Pitched Bonus
  $250,000 each for: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200
• Games Started Bonus 
  $1M each for: 15, 20,
  $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 
• Trade Assignment Bonus: $1M
• Opening Day Roster Bonus: $150,000
• Per 2/9/20 trade, Dodgers retain $10M (assumed to be 2020-2022 salary + trade bonus)

 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Cris E said:

All the incentives in Maedas's contract are around starting.  His contract is 8/$25m so his base salary isn't high but he gets more for starts and innings pitched.  Moving to the pen is going to cost him half his paycheck and he will be cranky, as would any of us. 

Contract Notes:

• Innings Pitched Bonus
  $250,000 each for: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200
• Games Started Bonus 
  $1M each for: 15, 20,
  $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 
• Trade Assignment Bonus: $1M
• Opening Day Roster Bonus: $150,000
• Per 2/9/20 trade, Dodgers retain $10M (assumed to be 2020-2022 salary + trade bonus)

 

Yes, this is exactly what I posted quite some time ago when someone said that Maeda had to go to the bullpen. The response suggested that the year off (fully paid) might make Kenta more open to being used as a reliever until such time as he had proved himself fully ready to takeover a starting spot. In other words, Maeda doesn't just get penciled in to the rotation and would be understanding. Spring Training will give us the answer.

[Stew]

I wanted rodon last year. He would have helped . I was betting that he would have a bounce back year , and he did. If all the pitchers are basically healthy. They could win  75 games just from there starters. Another 20 to 25 games is common for a bullpen. That's 100 wins.