Offseason Blueprint: An Aggressive Pursuit of Top Talent

[Nash Walker]

The Twins priotized top-level talent coming out of the lockout in 2022, signing star shortstop Carlos Correa and trading for standout starter Sonny Gray. My offseason blueprint includes a similar model.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are in prime position to add high-level players. The rotation, while not a clear strength, is deeper than its been in Derek Falvey’s entire tenure. There is no reason to add a Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer or J.A. Happ type this offseason. It’s time to make it count on both sides of the ball. 

MOVE ONE: Sign Carlos Correa for eight years, $256M ($32 million per) with a player opt-out after year four.
This move may be the simplest but also the most difficult to pull off. Correa, 28, is a two-way star in the midst of his prime. The Twins have a gaping hole at shortstop with no clear healthy solution in the organization. Correa’s 5.4 r-Wins Above Replacement in 2022 were the most by a Twin since Brian Dozier ’s magical 2016. Correa has hit .281/.360/.481 (130 OPS+) while saving the most runs among shortstops over the last four seasons. 

This contract structure keeps the Twins well away from the dreaded 10-year, $300 million pricetag. Correa sacrifices some assured money for the opt-out after year four, which also increases the risk for the Twins. They get four guaranteed years through Correa’s age-31 season. For Correa, he gets the opportunity to re-enter the market if he stays healthy and impactful. If not, he can opt-in to the rest of the deal for another $128 million. 

MOVE TWO: Sign José Abreu for two years, $41 million with a third year $20 million team option ($5 million buyout)
Once you make the long-term move for Correa, it’s an organizational commitment to further supplementation. The Twins don’t *need* a first baseman but this is simply a move for top-level talent. Abreu, 35, isn’t expected to return to the White Sox after hitting .304/.378/.446 (133 OPS+) in his best full season since 2017. Abreu’s power numbers dipped but he ranked in the top 10% in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and expected weighted on-base average. 

Abreu would make $18 million per year in 2022 and 2023 with the Twins holding an option on year three. The total guarantee is $41 million, a pretty hefty commitment to a soon-to-be 36-year-old first baseman. Abreu is worth it and would add another dangerous right-handed bat alongside Correa, Byron Buxton and José Miranda . Plus, taking him from the White Sox would be sweet with a capital S. 

MOVE THREE: Trade SS Brooks Lee, LHP Jovani Moran to Milwaukee Brewers for RHP Brandon Woodruff
In one swift trade, the Twins finally acquire the ace they’ve been searching for. Since 2020, Woodruff ranks 16th in ERA (2.84), eighth in strikeouts (492) and eighth in b-Wins Above Replacement (10.4). Woodruff has been more valuable, by bWAR, than Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo and Yu Darvish over the last three seasons. Woodruff is a bonafide No. 1 starter and is a luxury as the No. 2 in Milwaukee’s rotation. I think they’ll move Woodruff (or Corbin Burnes ) this winter as they’re both set for free agency following 2023. 

Losing Lee would be a major blow to the Twins’ already average farm system. Moran’s departure wouldn’t be easy either, as the lefty posted a 1.78 FIP in 40 ⅔ innings at the Major League level in 2022. It takes money to make money, as they say. Woodruff is under team control at modest salaries for the next two seasons. It’s a high-risk, win-now type of move. 

MOVE FOUR: Find new homes for 3B Gio Urshela, OF Max Kepler
If the Twins add the salary above, they’ll likely shed in other areas. Gio Urshela had a nice season, posting up 144 times with a .338 on-base percentage and solid defense at third. He’s also due for $9 million in arbitration with Miranda waiting to take his spot. If you add Abreu, you have to deal away from the glut at first and third. Urshela is the clear odd man out. 

Kepler’s time as a Twin seems to be running out. Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff could be the future of the corners in the outfield, leaving Kepler and his $8.5 million salary expendable. It remains to be seen whether any team will desire Kepler more after the institution of the shift ban. These two moves are to transfer funds and free up space elsewhere. This is a self-imposed payroll, of course. 

MOVE FIVE: Sign C Omar Narváez  for two years, $14M
The Twins are in need of a quality backstop to pair with Ryan Jeffers . Narváez provides the coveted left-handed bat they could use. Narváez, 30, is coming off a poor offensive season, hitting only .206/.292/.305 with a career-low 71 OPS+ (not counting the shortened Covid season). It was unlike him, as his career OPS is right at the league average (.728) and 30 points higher than catchers during that span (.698). 

Narváez is a quality pitch framer with below-average pop times behind the plate. At the plate, he owns a career 106 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. With Jeffers at a career 125 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, this feels like a platoon duo made in sabermetric heaven. 

MOVE SIX: Sign RP Kenley Jansen for two years, $28M
The Twins loved using Jhoan Durán in the highest leverage spots in 2022, relying on their electric young arm to get them out of jams at any time. By signing Jansen, the Twins can continue to float Durán throughout the late innings while designating the ninth for one of the best closers of this generation. 

Jansen, 35, continues to be one of the most consistently reliable relievers in baseball. Opponents hit just .192/.265/.346 off Jansen in 2022, with his underlying numbers - notably a 2.34 expected ERA - showing he's just as good as ever. Jansen's cutter is one of the best pitches of all time, regularly producing swings and misses or very weak contact. Jansen owns a career 36% strikeout rate and has never had an ERA over 3.71 in 13 seasons. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more experienced reliever. 

RESULT: Serious playoff contenders
The Twins would boast a lineup centered around Luis Arraez, Correa, Abreu and Byron Buxton with a host of exciting young bats. In the rotation, Woodruff leads a deep and potentially very good group. The bullpen’s upside would be massive. Where the team lacks defensively it makes up for with a star-studded lineup. The Twins would likely be the favorite to win the American League Central and maybe more. The total cost would be about $154 million, a considerable bump and the highest payroll in team history. 

 

A man can dream, right? 

What do you think of this blueprint? Comment below!

 

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[Linus]

No way I’m giving up that package for two years of Woodruff. Just sign Rodon. 

[JYTwinsFan]

Yea love this. Couple notes:

Trade Ober + Prospect for Jansen from Toronto and you'll save a little money and upgrade the lineup even further. Though you'd lose a little on the Narvaez advantages that you've called out, seems an upgrade overall.

If you want to still spend 154mil (ok with me!) then move Maeda back into the rotation and spend the 2-3mil catcher savings on another decent reliever.

If ownership will go to the level of spend you've projected here (which they no doubt should) this would be a very exciting team to watch for the next few years. And each year they'd still have options to free up little bits of cash (Polanco, Arraez, Gray) to keep fine tuning gaps if needed.

[Nashvilletwin]

Love most of this. You could/should move Polanco as well.

But there is no way I’m trading Brooks Lee. That kid has “it”. Lee falling to us might just end up like JJ falling to the Vikes.  

[Doctor Gast]

I like your blueprint Nash but I'd to comment on a couple. Woodruff is a great idea, I think your Woodruff is a slight over pay on MN part and MIL wants to compete this season so they are looking for MLB ready players. Catching and replacement pitching are their needs, maybe they'd consider a Jeffers/ Ober/ Moran offering.

I'm not crazy about Jeffers, I wanted to trade Jeffers last year. His trade worth will continue to drop until he's almost worthless as with his usefullness to the Twins. I'd then pursue Jansen (TOR). Really like Narvaez as back up 100%.

If we are keeping Arraez, we need to have a place for him to play, 1B is his best position on the field. Our organization is jam packed with 1B/DH types, we don't need more.

I don't see a change in FO philosophy of heavy reliance on short relief so FA Kenley Jansen is a must. So is signing Correa, let's see what happens

 

[TopGunn#22]

I like a lot of what you've done but I'm in agreement with Nashville that I'm not moving Lee.  It was a gift he fell and the Twins pounced.  As much as I want to acquire Woodruff (and I REALLY do, I've written about it several times), I just wouldn't give up a possible Chipper Jones type.  Just can't.  However, I see the logic of what you're doing.  With Correa locked up for a minimum of 4 years you've still got Lee and Lewis as future SS's.  There's a surplus to deal from.

I've also been pushing for a Jansen trade and would rather have him and Jason Castro than a Jeffers/Narvaez duo.  MY problem is that Ober is a key trade piece to get Woodruff from the Brewers as well as a possible piece to acquire Jansen the catcher. I can't trade Ober twice.  But Woodruff gives us a true stud at the top of our rotation and Jansen would solve our catching problem for years to come.   

Kenley Jansen would be a sneaky good pickup.  He's a proven CLOSER.  Duran could be relied upon in high leverage situations and if Lopez bounced back you'd have THREE really effective pitchers in the 7th, 8th and 9th.  It would also order the bullpen in such a way that Rocco would practically be forced to have clearly defined roles for each pitcher.  This is something Rocco needs to save him from himself.  

[Karbo]

Signing Abreu at that price would be a firm no for me. I would not trade Lee as he looks like a budding super star. But I like the idea of trying to find other options to trade for Woodruff or Burnes. Not completely sold on Narvaez, but at the right price, and depending on any other options would be OK.

[HrbieFan]

Milwaukee needs bats and will deal a SP this off season. They have holes all over the diamond! Gio, Martin and Ober for Woodruff.  Brewers fill 2 holes on the diamond and get a decent #5 SP. 

Be aggressive with Toronto to get a C from them. We have Jeffers, who has proved nothing besides that he is injury prone. 

[Otaknam]

No to trading Brooks Lee in favor of signing numerous high end free agents, That’s a strategy that almost never works, especially if some of the free agents are past their mid 30’s like Abreu. Lewis and Lee are potential impact players who should be untouchable. I would love to have Woodruff, but not if it sacrifices foundational pieces for two years of Woodruff. 

[Blyleven2011]

Dream or no Dream,  this will never happen  ... 

The front office is not to be trusted with their pitch to the fans and season ticket holders ...

They will be  competitive but not contenders  unless they get some top quality pitching  , pitching  and more pitching ...

I agree the twins are stronger at starting pitchers entering 2023 but are just slightly above average  ...

I know it sounds negative but it is reality  ...

Would love to have a star studded roster but we'll have to keep dreaming  ...

 

[MTV]

1. Like it but Correa will want more money

2. twins don’t need another 1B. Miranda, Kirilloff and Arraez are good enough and cheap

3. no.  Brooks Lee looks like the next Trea Turner (minus the speed), his hit tool is easily the best in the organization. Trade other prospects if you have to.

4. I like this, should be on the table but Urshela should stay.

5. not very against Narvaez, but offer less money after his disastrous 2022.

6. Like a closer signing, but I think Jansen is too high of an acquisition with noticeable issues. Sign Rogers or Robertson instead.

 

[jmlease1]

Have to admit, I really like the idea of stealing Abreu away from the ChiSox to add RH thump to the lineup. It's a little ideal that he's a 1B/DH guy, but he's a serious hitting threat. Nelson Cruz 2.0?

I hate the idea of trading Brooks Lee, who I think could be special. Also not a big fan of dumping $14M per on a "closer"...but Jansen is the sort that might be worth it? Ugh. He's been consistently great for a long time, but 35 is where I start to get twitchy that you can turn into a pumpkin at any moment.

Definitely an "all-in" blueprint, IMHO. 

[twinfan]

I'd rather have Raseal Iglesias than Jansen. Also I don't see Milwaukee giving up Woodruff. Rodon would be a good signing for 3 years. I don't see why the Twins couldn't have used Sanchez as the DH and emergency only catcher. I don't believe in Jeffers as the #1 catcher. And I would not get rid of Urshela who is very good defensively and decent on offense. I do like the idea of signing Abreu who remains a very good hitter.

[GopherJeff]

Whatever moves the Twins make to acquire existing talent – and many of your suggestions are ambitious and worthy of consideration – Brooks Lee needs to stay. The team needs to develop and promote him. He could be a generational player.

[tony&rodney]

I wonder if Milwaukee might be looking for players to stick in the lineup now? Miranda, Thielbar or Mahle, and Paddack?

Abreu would be a great pickup if the money works as would Jansen.

I didn't see Larnach on the team. Can the Twins get Sean Murphy for Larnach, Ober, Miller, and Raya?

The situation with Correa is critical to the direction of the team. i think he gets his $300 million.

I hope we don't wait until February to make some trades.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Dream or no Dream,  this will never happen  ... 

The front office is not to be trusted with their pitch to the fans and season ticket holders ...

They will be  competitive but not contenders  unless they get some top quality pitching  , pitching  and more pitching ...

I agree the twins are stronger at starting pitchers entering 2023 but are just slightly above average  ...

I know it sounds negative but it is reality  ...

Would love to have a star studded roster but we'll have to keep dreaming  ...

 

Not negative at all.  It is Twins reality.  We got Correa for one crappy season.  Nelson Cruz and Donaldson were also short lived.  They get a decent to good player but never great and the good ones are just to sell some tickets for the upcoming season, never long term!

[RpR]

1. No more than 5 years.

2. Not a bad idea.

3. Do it if they can, Lee.  is a banjo hitter and not a great defender.

4. EGADS, no -- trading a good and great defenders for one bad, and two unknowns, sheesh, Wallner belongs in AA.

5. Twins need a first line catcher with Jeffers, at best , as a back-up.

[Rosterman]

If we an't get Correa, I would offer a slightly lower deal for Bogarts. It would free-up names of shortstop prospects (yes, Lewis, Martin, Lee, Miller) as well as outfielders (Kepler, Winder, Larnach, Celestino, Kiriilloff) for going after someone.

By not tendering Pagan and Urshela, you have mroe money to spend.

Yes, I would get Arbeu. Not sure where we end up playing Arraez (who is actually at his top price as tradebait, possibly).

I would go all-in on Rodon rather than the trade with Milwaukee. I would figure out a trade of outfielders and a pitcher to Toronto for one of their catchers, perhaps. Or really blowup a Big Package and get Murray from Oakland.

If you sign a major rotation arm, you suddenly have tradables in Winder, Sands, Varland, Enlow, Balazovic, even Headrick, Ober. You don't trade them all, but could lose two or three easily.

The Twins need a catcher. It would nice to have a real ace. They need a big bat who can DH and play somewhere in the field. A good bullpen veteran, the magic word GOOD, would be a wonderful addition. 

The pain is that there are too many unpredictables amongst the Twins keepers that would determine how competitive they might be in 2023. Madea, Ryan, Ober, Mahle. Polanco, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilooff, Buxton (even), Larnach. Duran, Moran, Alcala, Thielber, Lopez. I can't write down on paper what to expect from any opf them. Better or worse than 2022, or 2021, numbers!?!

 

[Loosey]

Based on what I have read the Twins want to know if they are signing Correa or not soon so they aren't playing catch up in a diluted talent pool later in the year.  So hopefully by Thanksgiving weekend we have a Correa answer because everything they do hinges on that one way or the other.  That being said they do need to get one of the top 4 SS's in my opinion.  

[tony&rodney]

20 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Yes, I would get Arbeu. Not sure where we end up playing Arraez (who is actually at his top price as tradebait, possibly).

Arraez is a player that Milwaukee may be interested in. Brooks Lee doesn't step right into the Milwaukee lineup and they need offense now. 

[tony&rodney]

The biggest takeaway from looking over Nash's roster is that he believes the Twins have an ability and interest in raising the budget to $154 million. I love that realization and also believe it is realistic. While the team could just build a team at around $100-120 million, a budget that allows for additional funds to be spent could bring excitement to Target Field and fill the seats.

[farmerguychris]

Nice article and I like some of the ideas EXCEPT, I'm not interested in trading away Lee.  Too much potential.