One Year Boppers: Outfield Trade Candidates for the Twins

[Peter Labuza]

Should the Twins be looking to the trade market rather than signing a long-term bat in the outfield?

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

 

In the midst of a sordid Twins season, one of the few hopeful spots was the potential of a number of excellent bats joining the outfield. Nick Gordon seemed to finally figure things out. Matt Wallner looked solid as he tried to extend the stretch run. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach remain enigmas but each has shown great ability when healthy. Other young bats are waiting in the wings.

So while the Twins might be ready to spend a great deal on Mitch Haniger or Brandon Nimmo, a smart move might be a one-year rental via trade. These veterans could even split time with younger players in need of reps without the worry of having to develop a long-term plan, similar to what might occur over at shortstop. It would also make any other trades the Twins want to make—whether finally parting ways with Max Kepler or using Gio Urshela as a leveraged asset—easier to make.

As teams figure out how to approach 2023, they may be looking to move some names that might prove useful on a one-year rental: 

Teoscar Hernández (Estimated Salary: $14.5 million)
Toronto no doubt will be ready to compete again after their disappointing playoff bout with the Mariners, but the rumor mill has suggested the team might part ways with Hernandez to bring in some diversity to their righty-loaded line up. Of course, Teoscar Hernandez is a good problem for any team to have: .267/.316/.491 for a 129 WRC+, which would be better than all but the A-B-C lineup of last year’s Twins. The 2021 All-Star has slowly worked on his strikeout problem and would certainly be a more dangerous bat anytime where a southpaw takes the mound, where he bopped with a .978 OPS against lefties. His defense would certainly be a step down compared to Kepler, but the Dominican-born player would be a natural among the team’s four DR-born players.

Ian Happ (Estimated Salary: $10.9 million)
It’s a genuine question: what are the Cubs planning on doing in 2023? They are already in pursuit of one of the four top shortstops, but whether they will have the pitching necessary to win the NL Central might make them likely to continue to shed names for prospects. That means Happ, a switch-hitting all-star who hit .271/.342/.440 with a stellar 42 doubles, might be on the market. The Cubs shopped Happ at the deadline but found no deals worth pulling the trigger. However, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has already confirmed the Cubs have thrown his name around. With a 2022 Gold Glove, Happ could be the kind of defensive replacement with real power that would be an easy upgrade for Kepler.

Kiké Hernandez (Estimated Salary: $10.0 million)
Former Dodger and current Red Sox, Kiké Hernandez is coming off a down year after posting a 3.9 WAR season in 2021. Much of that is due to injuries—a hip strain flexor ailed him through the first few months before finally skipping the high summer months. His return to the lineup was not necessarily splashy, but the 240 average was a vast improvement over what he had shown earlier. Fangraph's projections seem a little unclear as to what the 31-year-old will hit next year, but a solid bat and elite defense would be a huge step up for the Twins looking to give more time for rookies to develop. Whether the Red Sox have a 2023 plan remains the bigger mystery.

Cody Bellinger (Estimated Salary: $18.0 million)
The Dodgers lineup proved so good throughout their record 111-win season that the team never felt it necessary to remove the former MVP who has crashed down to earth from their lineup. Bellinger has yet to look like his former self since a shoulder injury in 2020, hitting .210 last year with a strikeout rate in the Bottom 10 for qualified batters. Bellinger also induces a hefty projected $18 million in arbitration salary that might not be the kind either the Pohlads or fans will be happy to see for his estimated production. But money is money, and the Dodgers may be ready to part ways for practically nothing (though rumors of a non-tender have swirled since spring). Bellinger also brings elite defense that might make Byron Buxton blush—or at least give Twins fans less anxiety if the bopper needs more time at DH. The question is whether the change in scenery may help him finally demonstrate the 47-homer power that made him a star. 

Would you be interested in seeing the Twins acquire any of these hitters in a trade? Leave a Comment below. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

Not at those salaries - no. It is always good to look around at who may be available and also useful and all of these athletes are good ball players, but the Twins have a set of priorities that moves these guys off of any wish list.

[CRF]

If the FO is smart, which I'm not 100% sure of, they should be looking at every option out there to make the team better. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

If the Twins are going to spend player capital to acquire a player, the real question is if any of these guys are worth it.  Happ would be nice, but will cost a ton in assets.

If they are intent on making a trade, then I would rather they blow it up and go after a huge name that would help them, not nickel and dime on small step ups...

[mikelink45]

I would take Teoscar, but only if I got rid of Kepler. 

[TopGunn#22]

Happ and Hernandez are VERY interesting.  I'd look into both options and weigh the cost for either.  All the talk about the Cubs is how aggressive they will be going after a SS and pitching, so it's hard to imagine them parting ways with Happ.  Hernandez is more of a situation where Toronto is overly RH in their lineup.  Maybe we could offer Larnach or Kepler and something else (Kepler alone wouldn't get it done).  Kepler and Polanco ??  

[Riverbrian]

I know this statement will be controversial. 

The Twins do need to prepare for the possibility that they are in contention at the trade deadline. 

Meaning:

They do need to look at the current prospect inventory and factor in today and tomorrow when looking at the trade market. 

[MTV]

Good list, Teoscar just got sent off to Seattle so he’s off the board. Happ is more of a left-fielder so he wouldn’t really fit, Bellinger’s struggles and the fact that he’s a lefty make him not desirable, Hernandez I could see as a piece but seems not likely, I also like the options of Hunter Renfroe, Austin Hays, and Austin Slater to provide righty help, with the latter 2 having the ability to play center and having more years of control.

[Finlander]

Its been true for a while that Toronto and Minnesota could match up well for a trade of outfielders, with Twins too heavy on lefty swingers and Jays being very right-handed throughout. We might be able to pluck a spare catcher from them in the right package deal too.

[Finlander]

I like Teoscar, and I also wonder if L Gurriel could be available out of Toronto. Guess we'd prefer a CF-capable piece. Bellinger I'd reject mainly because he's a lefty. Happ would likely cost us too much in trade. Kike is also interesting, but the hip flexor is a concern. Maybe if Boston threw Sale into the deal and ate most of his salary...lol.

[mnfireman]

Teoscar Hernandez traded to the Mariners.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/blue-jays-trade-teoscar-hernandez-mariners.html

[jmlease1]

is Happ really a Gold Glove OF or was 2022 a fluke year? His previous defensive stats are less compelling.

Bellinger's arbitration number is way too much to trade for, especially for a player who has utterly collapsed since his MVP year. (he was ok in the pandemic year, staggeringly bad in 2021, and not very good in 2022) He's the poster child for how the arbitration system is non-sensical; after 2 bad years in a row, he's going to get a raise, when he's already making serious money. I'd kick the tires on him if he were non-tendered and right-handed, but I wouldn't trade a bucket of balls for him right now. $18M for a backup CF? Nope.

Hernandez is the most interesting option; he hits lefties well over his career, the defense is quality, and he could be a good fit as a 4th OF. I'd think you'd want to trade Kepler if you added him, which probably makes the whole thing a wash in terms of assets, but might make the Twins a bit better through their lineup balance?

[weitz41]

Baltimore's Santander might be a possibility as well. Switch hitting LF who had a pretty decent 2022 season.

[MGM4706]

Take a flyer in Bellinger. Not sure Buxton will ever be an every day player again.