What Went Wrong with the 2022 Twins Pitching Experiment?

[h2oface]

"That likely contributed to the decision to acquire Tyler Mahle at the deadline. He threw 180 innings in 2021 (would've led the Twins by 60), and had completed six or more frames in eight of nine starts for the Reds leading up the trade. "

This seems to importantly not consider that Mahle was out and on the IL with a "?tired shoulder?" (or whatever it was and became again during his 2 inning third start for the Twins) between July 2 and July 24 and during that 8 of 9 starts, and only had 2 starts with the Reds post IL before the trading deadline. That seems to be a pretty big gamble, as well as experiment, if one is looking for innings..... and proved to be, as Mahle pitched only 2 innings after he went out the first time with the Twins.

[rv78]

• Filling the rotation with starters who can at least stay healthy and excel in 4-5 inning starts.
• Finding at least one workhorse type starter who can reliably give you 6+ innings each turn.
• Equipping the bullpen with enough firepower and multi-inning relievers to shoulder the load.
• Having one central mastermind oversee the operation (and if it's not working, find someone new).

 

These are all very good points but I'd like to lean on the 4th one on this list. Doesn't this fall upon the Manager? Last time I checked he is running the day to day operations of the team making in game decisions. Or is he just a puppet doing what he is told? If the Manager can't see when something is not working when it unfolds right in front of him and does nothing to change it then the ONLY answer is to "find someone new".

[ashbury]

15 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He threw 180 innings in 2021 (would've led the Twins by 60),

Only because we traded away our previous workhorse with 2 months remaining in that season, who wound up throwing 192 in aggregate.  ?

A healthy 2021 for Mahle would be very important data, IF in conjunction with a healthy 2022.  Unfortunately, we were left with hoping our FO had guessed correctly about the shoulder woes preceding the trade.  Events didn't bear them out. 

Newer data is almost always more important than older data, when you're trying to forecast performance and the two happen to be at odds.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

This is what throws me as well. with an 8-man bullpen, there's no reason you can't have 2 guys designated to throw 2 innings in their relief appearances and still have enough 1 inning monsters to close out your games. the sequencing works:

• SP1 throws 5 innings
• LongRP1 throws 2 innings
• ShortRP1 throws 1 inning
• ShortRP2 throws 1 inning

Game 2:

• SP1 throws 5 innings
• ShortRP3 throws 1
• SRP4 throws 1
• SRP5 throws 1
• SRP1 comes back and throws 1 on a back to back

Game 3:

• SP3 throws 5 innings
• LongRP2 throws 2 
• SRP6 throws 1
• SRP2 throws 1

Now, for game 4 your first 2 inning guy has had 2 days off and should be ready to throw 2 innings again if needed. But you have to actually treat all your bullpen spots as being pitchers you will use, not holding 1 guy as a mop-up man or only slotting certain guys to pitch the 7th, etc.

Getting more consistent health out of the rotation is going to be hugely important; twins had 12 guys make at least 3 starts for them in 2022, but only 4 make at least 20. Bundy's best attribute last year was availability: he actually lead the team with 29 starts...but unfortunately (and somewhat predictably) they weren't above-average ones. I think they could make this work with the rotation we have (although I still favor going after a top-end guy like Rodon), but they can't be afraid to have relievers that they expect to throw 2 innings fairly consistently.

This would work in a perfect world but in the real world there are way too many variables that happens, extra innings, one of the relief pitchers isn't good or more, or you are up and somebody gives up runners and you need to bring another pitcher in.

I do agree 100% they have to have some relievers that can go at least 2 innings just about every time out. The easiest way to guarantee that is when you have a pitcher you know will not go 6+ innings you start the relief pitcher for 2. Now I hate this and if Twins or anybody started doing this more often than not it would be another nail in the coffin for baseball but doing it occasionally or maybe 25-30 times wouldn't be so horrible (If the team is doing well because combing this with losing well that is unacceptable and unwatchable)

[jmlease1]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

This would work in a perfect world but in the real world there are way too many variables that happens, extra innings, one of the relief pitchers isn't good or more, or you are up and somebody gives up runners and you need to bring another pitcher in.

I do agree 100% they have to have some relievers that can go at least 2 innings just about every time out. The easiest way to guarantee that is when you have a pitcher you know will not go 6+ innings you start the relief pitcher for 2. Now I hate this and if Twins or anybody started doing this more often than not it would be another nail in the coffin for baseball but doing it occasionally or maybe 25-30 times wouldn't be so horrible (If the team is doing well because combing this with losing well that is unacceptable and unwatchable)

There will also be games where your starter goes 6+, and there will also be games where you can ask your 2 inning longer relief guys to throw 3 rather than 2. You can ask your shorter relievers to throw back to back games from time to time, or throw for 4 outs rather than 3. The point is, you have to use all 8 spots in your bullpen and not "save" pitchers for overly specific situations like save situations or long relief in a blowout and then look back in a week and realize that you have two guys in the bullpen who didn't throw in any of that week's games. You also can't have a Chris Archer as a pitcher who can't even make it to 5 innings as a starter and is capped at 75 pitches.

My point is really that teams have lost the long reliever, treating them only as a mop-up guy, and pushed relievers to be max-effort, 1 inning guys as the priority for use. Starters aren't going to suddenly start throwing more unless they show they can thrive in that 3rd time through the order, so you have to patch the game together differently. trying to run out 4 relievers a night on 1 inning efforts and hope that you get enough 6+ inning jobs from your starter is a fools errand.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, rv78 said:

• Having one central mastermind oversee the operation (and if it's not working, find someone new).

 

Doesn't this fall upon the Manager? Last time I checked he is running the day to day operations of the team making in game decisions. Or is he just a puppet doing what he is told?

[Linus]

They didn’t have enough good pitchers. There. Problem solved. I’m only being a little snarky as I think a lot of people think there is a magic formula that will allow a team that has too many crappy pitchers to put together effective pitching. 
 

you want good pitching get good pitchers. 

[cHawk]

I'm no insider, but I presume their experiment looked something like this:

[Riverbrian]

IP from Starters in 2022

1. Astros - 950 Innings  ERA 2.95

27. Twins - 782.2 Innings ERA 4.11

30. Rays - 753 Innings ERA 3.45

IP from Relievers 

1. Rays - 682.2 Innings ERA 3.36

3. Twins - 654.1 Innings ERA 3.84

30. Astros - 495.1 Innings ERA 2.80

The Rays show it can be done. The Twins needed 159 more bullpen innings which is about 20 innings extra per bullpen slot. There is no escape from this bullpen usage when you look at how many starters were dragging the starter ERA down to 4.11.  

Which Twins starters had an ERA over 4.11? 

Bundy - 29 Starts

Archer - 25 Starts

Winder - 11 Starts

Mahle - 4 Starts

Sanchez - 3 Starts

Sands - 3 Starts

Gonzalez - 2 Starts

67 Starts made by Starters with an ERA over 4.11 (There's your problem)

 

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

IP from Starters in 2022

1. Astros - 950 Innings  ERA 2.95

27. Twins - 782.2 Innings ERA 4.11

30. Rays - 753 Innings ERA 3.45

IP from Relievers 

1. Rays - 682.2 Innings ERA 3.36

3. Twins - 654.1 Innings ERA 3.84

30. Astros - 495.1 Innings ERA 2.80

The Rays show it can be done. The Twins needed 159 more bullpen innings which is about 20 innings extra per bullpen slot. There is no escape from this bullpen usage when you look at how many starters were dragging the starter ERA down to 4.11.  

Which Twins starters had an ERA over 4.11? 

Bundy - 29 Starts

Archer - 25 Starts

Winder - 11 Starts

Mahle - 4 Starts

Sanchez - 3 Starts

Sands - 3 Starts

Gonzalez - 2 Starts

67 Starts made by Starters with an ERA over 4.11 (There's your problem)

 

And Mahle, the supposed savior, is one of them, even if he would have actually pitched regularly.