Will the Front Office Choose to Build a Better Bullpen?

[Cris E]

33 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

It is ridiculous of the F.O. to expect to not have starters see a batter a third time in a game, but then leave the BP completely unprepared for that kind of load.  Probably the biggest glaring mistake they've made IMO.  If you want the starters to go 4-5 innings fine, but you must then stock you BP with arms who can make up for the short starts period.

I have been pretty easy on the front office regarding 2022 because of the preposterous number of injuries. Most of their plans were shredded early and the year devolved into patching and promoting pretty quickly. 

BUT they did plan a rotation around Bundy and Archer and at least one youngster (Grey, Ryan, Archer, Bundy, kids) and that was always going to put a load on the pen. Even in a world where Archer and Bundy slowly grow strong and healthy there should have been a lot more structure around the swing role for the first half of the season. Those guys never improved, just kept slinging 4+ innings of decent starts, but the pen never changed to cover that many innings. The Falvine can wear that part of the outcomes as a direct result of not designing innings 4-6..

[Blyleven2011]

I have no confidence in the FO that they will add top relievers early in the off season  and will continue to be buzzards and circle the pile of free agents with below average arms at the end of the off season  ... 

It's been their MO almost from day one and yet they think they are the smartest  ones in the room  ...

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Winder has always been a starter, and a good one, but he's had some injury problems recently.

He's 26 and has a nagging shoulder injury.  I think it's time to pivot.

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

In my perfect world where we have a higher salary cap and our FO will actually spend FA money on the bullpen I’d get Andrew Chafin and Rafael Montero. I’d then pick up a high SP and move Maeda to the bullpen. Giving us:

Duran 

Montero

Lopez

Alcala

Chafin

Thielbar 

Maeda

Jax/Megill

Now being realistic the odds that we get even one of these guys isn’t going to be high.
 

That being said our bullpen can be good. The biggest starting factor is the starting pitchers. We dealt with a lot of injuries last year and had guys like Bundy and Archer that would only go 4 innings. Our bullpen ranked 3rd in most innings pitched. The more opportunity you give your bullpen the more likely they will screw up. I’m going to insert a picture here that sums it up. 

And look at at the correlation. The 2 bottom teams are the World Series contenders and 4 out of the bottom 6 were in the championship series games. Compared to the World Series winners the Houston Astros pitched 169 less innings than the Twins. That equates to 18 full games worth of bullpen pitching. Part of it is injuries and part of it is Rocco being Rocco but either way if we want to have a good bullpen no matter who we have we need our starters to pitch more innings.

The next thing our bullpen needs is a strong leader/experience. We have a lot of young guys in our bullpen and a guy like Chafin who has been in the league for a long time with plenty of great years. A guy like Montero would also bring in experience especially playoff and World Series experience. He’s been in those big situations and know how to deal with pressure and will be very reliable. 
 

Finally the third factor is our rookies/guys back from injuries. If Alcala can make progress and become more effective after his injury. In my scenario I moved Maeda to the bullpen. I did this because coming back from his injury the bullpen would be less stress on his arm. Maeda has also proven effective in the bullpen while with the Dodgers. Other rookies like Jax and Megill if they keep improving could make a big impact. 
 

Overall, there are many factors that can affect our bullpen but I do think that our bullpen will be better in 2023. 

[MoyBoy74]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions.  They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season.

I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez,  etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year.

I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him.

They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. 

ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

I would like Chaffin on a 2yr 17million deal as another left. Maybe not work Thielbar so hard and ofter

[Linus]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's 26 and has a nagging shoulder injury.  I think it's time to pivot.

Yea and not that good when healthy. Time to see if we can get value from him in a long relief/piggyback role. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have already trimmed many of the relievers who struggled in 2022. Smeltzer wasn't bad, but not so good as a reliever - gone. Cano, Smith, and Duffey - gone. Pagan - We hope he is dropped. I'm not sold on Fulmer - he is a free agent. Sanchez and Cotton (I liked him) - gone. Megill had ups and downs - likely a minor league (?) deal.

That leaves us with Duran, Lopez, Alcala (coming back strong), Thielbar, Moran (underrated), Jax, Maeda (best used as a rp), Winder, Henriquez, Stashak, Sands, and some others from within the system provide more stability imho than what was available going into 2022. 

I would only look to add one guy and a few others on minor league deals. Focus on starters, shortstop, catcher, and a RH of bat.

[Paul Walerius]

On 11/8/2022 at 1:46 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins need every regular RP to be better than Jax, he gave up ER's in 17 of his 65 games, that is 1 out of 4 games. With as much as the Twins use the bullpen that has to be better. They need Lopez to the be the Baltimore version, they need Duran to be Duran, they need Moran to be as good or better than last year, they need Fulmer to be better than he was last year. Thielbar needs to be as good as he was last year.  When you use the bullpen as much as they do they have to be good 9 out of 10 outings.

Thielbar gave up runs in 15 of 67 (22%) 3.49 ERA

Fulmer with twins 7 of 26 (27%) and Tigers 10-41 (24%) overall 17-67 (25%) 3.39 ERA

Lopez with twins 6 of 23 (26%) and Orioles 10 of 44 (23%) overall 16 of 67(24%)  2.54 ERA

Duran 9 of 57 (16%) 1.86 ERA

Jax 17 of 65 (26%)   3.36 ERA

Moran 7 of 31 (22%) 2.21 ERA

Overall there is really no difference across the board (other than Duran).   So again it comes down to how they tell them to pitch, Don't be predictable.   

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 11/8/2022 at 5:07 PM, DocBauer said:

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions.  They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season.

I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez,  etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year.

I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him.

They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. 

ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

I'm right there with you and I think you have named the two guys to go after - Fullmer and Rogers.  We "should" be able to get both for $12m or less. That leaves enough for Correa and a catcher like Navaez. Trade  Kepler for prospects. IF you can get Chris Bassitt, also trade Urshela for prospects and turn 3B over to Miranda, leaving 1B for Arraez and Kirilloff. Now you have your Basitt money. All that leaves in my mind is how to get a RH OF/1B/DH to put in the middle of the lineup. That would then require either raising the payroll (nice thought) or trading prospects (probably at least one pitcher) for that bat. Both are eminently doable. I like Josh Bell or Trey Mancini for the RH hitter role. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 11/9/2022 at 9:44 AM, Cris E said:

 The plans were in tatters by April 1. 

What?

[shortround81]

Yep