Will the Front Office Choose to Build a Better Bullpen?

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins have struggled in adding effective relief pitchers in the past two off-seasons. Here are three next steps that would indicate a change in approach to bullpen building.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today Sports

I’d argue that bullpen construction is one of the areas in which Derek Falvey-led Twins front office has consistently failed in executing since taking over in Minnesota.

In 2021, the pen was marred by repeated first-half meltdowns from Alexander Colomé. That unit ranked 22nd by fWAR, 21st by FIP, and 16th by K/9 after a second-half recovery. In 2022, Emilio Pagán single-handedly blew a handful of games to eventual AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians. The 2022 unit ranked 20th by fWAR, 14th by FIP, and 12th by K/9. At least a modicum of improvement. Overall, however, this front office has taken the ‘building the plane while flying it approach’ to bullpen construction. While 2022 went as badly as it could for a variety of reasons, most notably player health, here are three trends to look for that might indicate a different approach to bullpen construction in 2023.

Shop for Relievers, Earlier than Later
This front office has shied away from any spending on relief arms. Prior to 2022, Joe Smith was the lone bullpen addition signed to a major league contract (Pagan was acquired by trade). I’m not advocating for the Twins to put together an Edwin Díaz-type contract for a relief pitcher, but $6-9 million can buy you a lot of arm. This front office typically waits until late in free agency to extract contract value. I’d like to see them add to the bullpen, aggressively, targeting velocity and stuff. The Twins couple easily push toward a top-ten bullpen by raising the floor on what they ran out in 2022, and it shouldn’t cost that much. Stop valuing good contracts over good players.

There’s No Such Thing as too Many Options
The Twins have several exciting internal options for the bullpen. Matt Canterino, Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow, even Josh Winder. All of these options have something in common, they were either hurt in 2022 or unproven in a bullpen role in 2022. I’d bet that at least one of these names becomes a Griffin Jax type in 2023. That is to say, a solid mid-to-high-end reliever who can work in some mid-to-high leverage situations. If the Twins learned anything in 2023, however, it should be not to count on anyone or anything going to plan. The Twins need to have a semi-established bullpen pecking order by the end of April, not by the All-Star Break. 

Buy-Low Arms for Depth Only
The Twins should never have an arm like Joe Smith in their bullpen if they want to be taken seriously. The best bullpens in MLB are stacked with velocity, movement, and high-caliber arms. The Twins capacity to reach that ceiling is pretty exciting (imagine a back end of Canterino, Alcala, López, and Duran). With that in mind, and learning and building from the best models available (Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, etc.) the Twins should only be bringing in ‘buy-low’ type arms as competition in spring training, and depth throughout the season.

If the Twins front office did nothing to the bullpen between now and opening day, the ceiling is high, and the potential is exciting. The observable difference in behavior ahead of 2023 is whether they choose to raise the floor, and account for the unexpected. What changes would you like to see from the front office in how approach building their bullpen ahead of 2023? Join the discussion and leave your thoughts below.

 

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[stringer bell]

There is a lot more talent available for ‘23 than there was for ‘22. I think that one more proven arm needs to be added and it would be good if he was a lefty (Cleveland continues to show more vulnerability to lefties than righties). In addition, the Twins would be well-served to have a guy or two who can go multiple innings. 

[Doctor Gast]

'21 & '22 our BP stunk from the get go. Going to closers like Colume', Duffy & Pagan & keep going to them. time after, after time, after time when everyone knew that they that they were going to bomb (how disheartening) with an exception of maybe only a couple of RP you could really count on.

But prior we had some pretty good BP. Even then they would count on a few best RPs & then BP would blow up (except maybe the shorten '20). I really like our BP this season but if we forgo long relief (and keep Varland, Winder and etc. in AAA) again we need to a few more very good short RPs  and a couple of pretty good SP to shore up the management's habit, if we want a competitive year.

[TwinsDr2021]

The Twins need every regular RP to be better than Jax, he gave up ER's in 17 of his 65 games, that is 1 out of 4 games. With as much as the Twins use the bullpen that has to be better. They need Lopez to the be the Baltimore version, they need Duran to be Duran, they need Moran to be as good or better than last year, they need Fulmer to be better than he was last year. Thielbar needs to be as good as he was last year.  When you use the bullpen as much as they do they have to be good 9 out of 10 outings.

[roger]

I think I am in agreement with much of what you are saying.  But this bullpen could be close to being one of the best.  To get there they need to go out and sign the best damn late inning guy on the market.  With Correa gone, they have a lot of money, use some of it for that guy.  Get quality over quantity.

With hopefully a healthy Alcala coming back along with improvement from Moran, a bullpen closed out by Signee X, Lopez and Duran could be like the KC bullpen that took them to the Series not so long ago.

As for Canterino and Enlow, let them stay as starters while coming back from surgery.

One other point is they are going to have to address the elephant in the room.  That is how are they going to manage their starters in 2023?  Are they all going to be limited to TTTO?  If so, they need to have at least two relievers who pitch multiple innings every couple days.

[TwinsDr2021]

54 minutes ago, roger said:

I think I am in agreement with much of what you are saying.  But this bullpen could be close to being one of the best.  To get there they need to go out and sign the best damn late inning guy on the market.  With Correa gone, they have a lot of money, use some of it for that guy.  Get quality over quantity.

With hopefully a healthy Alcala coming back along with improvement from Moran, a bullpen closed out by Signee X, Lopez and Duran could be like the KC bullpen that took them to the Series not so long ago.

As for Canterino and Enlow, let them stay as starters while coming back from surgery.

One other point is they are going to have to address the elephant in the room.  That is how are they going to manage their starters in 2023?  Are they all going to be limited to TTTO?  If so, they need to have at least two relievers who pitch multiple innings every couple days.

Canterino turns 25 in just over a month and has pitched 60 innings since 2019 his time as a starter is over, because it will take a couple of years to stretch him out anyway. He has the ability to be like one of the Astros relief pitchers and that is what he should be groomed for. Given him some innings in the minors and if he is good get him up to the Twins bullpen. I think Alcala should be start out as a low pressure guy until he proves he is back and better than ever. Both these two should/could jump Jax in the pecking order and pass the ball off to Duran and Lopez.

[gman]

From the reports I've seen Canterino won't be back until late next year or probably '24. Based on War Rodgers was #4 and Fulmer was #6. I think I would talked to both those guys and try to bring them back. Then #3-5 by War are Jensen, Kimbrel and Chafin. But both Kimbrel & Chafin allowed a lot of runners I'm not sure I'd want them mixing it up in the bullpen. I'd rather look at someone with a low whip like Montero (from Houston) and Jensen from Atl.

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, gman said:

Based on War Rodgers was #4 and Fulmer was #6. I think I would talked to both those guys and try to bring them back. Then #3-5 by War are Jensen, Kimbrel and Chafin. But both Kimbrel & Chafin allowed a lot of runners I'm not sure I'd want them mixing it up in the bullpen.

What are you looking at to get these rankings? Rogers was worth 1 fWAR and -0.7 bWAR last year. 

[Cris E]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml

The MLB-wide IP/GS was 5.2 innings. The Astros led everyone at 5.9 and the Twins were below average at 4.7, but not as far below as some seem to imply. That half inning below average is two outs, so not a ton different from the rest of baseball. What was really different was that we had our 12th and 22nd and 33rd best pitchers out there more than just about every other team and anyone's 30th pitcher is almost always going to be terrible or unprepared.  There were plenty of arms in the plans for 2022 that were largely missing: Maeda, Alcala, Stashak, and big acquisitions Mahle and Paddack only made a hand full of starts. 

They have the bones of a good bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax and Moran are good pitchers. Pick through some of the kids, only use Pagan before the seventh and maybe re-sign Fulmer and you could be a swingman or two away from adequacy without changing too much.  Mostly things hinge on being able to limit your staff to the top 15-20 guys in the org rather than finding 38 arms to run out there.

[DocBauer]

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions.  They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season.

I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez,  etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year.

I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him.

They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. 

ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

[gman]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

What are you looking at to get these rankings? Rogers was worth 1 fWAR and -0.7 bWAR last year. 

MLB.com news under Hot Stove Guide

[se7799]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml

The MLB-wide IP/GS was 5.2 innings. The Astros led everyone at 5.9 and the Twins were below average at 4.7, but not as far below as some seem to imply. That half inning below average is two outs, so not a ton different from the rest of baseball. What was really different was that we had our 12th and 22nd and 33rd best pitchers out there more than just about every other team and anyone's 30th pitcher is almost always going to be terrible or unprepared.  There were plenty of arms in the plans for 2022 that were largely missing: Maeda, Alcala, Stashak, and big acquisitions Mahle and Paddack only made a hand full of starts. 

They have the bones of a good bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax and Moran are good pitchers. Pick through some of the kids, only use Pagan before the seventh and maybe re-sign Fulmer and you could be a swingman or two away from adequacy without changing too much.  Mostly things hinge on being able to limit your staff to the top 15-20 guys in the org rather than finding 38 arms to run out there.

4.7 is not good.  I'm hoping our goal is not to be average in this or any department like this.  It is far enough blow average to be at the bottom.

[Game7-91]

 

[rwilfong86]

If not the front office may be looking for new employment in the near future.

[weitz41]

I'd really like to see the FO splurge on the BP. They've got a lot of young arms that they'll have cheap for many seasons to come. A couple of 2-3 years contracts in the 3-7 mil per year range shouldn't be out of the question. There are plenty of quality BP arms that should fall into that range. Michael Fulmer, Robert Suarez, Carlos Estévez and Pierce Johnson should be in that group. Plus another veteran or two in the pen should help the young guys at their craft.

[DJL44]

If Megill gets bumped to AAA to start the season that will be a good sign.

[EGFTShaw]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions.  They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season.

I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez,  etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year.

I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him.

They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. 

ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

I'm with Doc here, " I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea".

I think we have a good core for the BP.

The Mets kept the best one off the market, but they will end up paying for the length of that contract in the end.  I kind of hope not, because I love his entrance. :)

That said, I am not sure there is anyone out there I would spend money on right now.  You are not going to get an AWESOME RP for $3-5M.

AND, I can't see spending more than that unless it was a two-year deal for one of the best.

I think, to quote The Who, "The Kids Are Alright".

[CRF]

Who knows? One thing's for sure...they won't improve it by bringing Duffey back. I'm sure that pic is him watching another ball leave the park!

[roger]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions.  They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season.

I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez,  etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year.

I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him.

They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. 

ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

Disagree on one point, Doc.  There is another glaring hole, the biggest IMO.  That is a starting catcher who is better than Jeffers, both behind the plate and with the bat.  That catcher may also make a difference with the success of our pitching staff. 

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, Cris E said:

The MLB-wide IP/GS was 5.2 innings. The Astros led everyone at 5.9 and the Twins were below average at 4.7, but not as far below as some seem to imply. That half inning below average is two outs, so not a ton different from the rest of baseball.

2 outs per game might not seem like a big deal but over the course of the season it is 108 innings. Kind of seems like a lot of innings to fill that the average MLB didn't have to, no?

Dig a little deeper into the other numbers and you see they were 29th out of 30th in Quality starts, the average was 59 and they had 35 and remember they weren't using a 1 inning starter, the 3 teams below the Twins Rays, Nationals and Pirates all used a relief pitcher as a starter over 10 times,

They were #1 in games where the starter went less 80 pitches with 85 games the average 45 games.

They were 30th in games where the starter went between 80-99 with 67 games, the average 92 games.

They were 27th in games where the starter went between 100-119 with 10 the average 25 games.

I will say it again, I am not complaining about what they did last year (at least not here) and I understand some of the circumstances that may have lead to this. But to lead the majors in starts with starters having less than 99 pitches and be 29th in quality starts without ever user a "Starter" can't be summed up as "well the Twins are doing what everybody else is doing".

Also my fuzzy math looks like if you remove the "starter" starts from the Rays, Pirates and Nationals the Twins drop to dead last in IP/GS.

[mikelink45]

In November all those "former" starters look like they will give us a great pen.  But in April they need to show they are dependable, can stand all those daily calls to the BP, have the control they need for critical outs, can warm up quickly, and have adjusted to the new role.  I am not on the bandwagon, just in the crowd watching it go by.

[rv78]

They can very quickly solve two problems in Free Agency. Add Rodon for your Ace and Contreras for your other catcher. Both make the team considerably better going into 2023. Rodon makes Gray your #2 instead of your #1 and moves Ryan. Mahle, Ober and the young guys, Winder, Varland, SWR, all down one notch in pecking order as well. Slide Maeda into a long-relief role. Release Pagan and give his spot to Ronnie Henriquez as another long reliever. Then fill the back of the pen with Thielbar, Jax, Moran, Alcala, Lopez and Duran. Yeah, that's 16 guys but they'll need 'em all eventually. Stashak will probably be back as well with options to use Sands and Megill. Enlow and Balazovic both on the 40 man may see some time in 2023 too. I wouldn't resign Fulmer as he is borderline effective and there are currently other in-house options just as good as him. 

By the way, can we stop seeing pictures of worthless players like Duffey? They only conjure up bad memories that we'd like to forget about.

[Karbo]

IMO the 1st step to improve the pen is getting at least 2 decent to good long relievers. This one and done is a sure fire way to expose and overwork the pen. The 2nd step is to try and get more innings out of the starters.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

IMO the 1st step to improve the pen is getting at least 2 decent to good long relievers. This one and done is a sure fire way to expose and overwork the pen. The 2nd step is to try and get more innings out of the starters.

? you can't have 4 to 5 guys going 1 inning night. And it seems you are dead on how to stop that either your bullpen guys need to pitch longer or your starters needs to pitch longer, doesn't seem that hard, and yet the Twins FO hasn't figured it out for two years.

[saviking]

All I ask is either go after top line relievers or turn to guys like Ober or Winder as sixth, seventh inning set up guys, but please, please don't don't circle what's left over of the reliever market at the end of the signing period like Buzzards as the Twins usually do. We do NOT need to sign relievers with average talent.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, saviking said:

All I ask is either go after top line relievers or turn to guys like Ober or Winder as sixth, seventh inning set up guys, but please, please don't don't circle what's left over of the reliever market at the end of the signing period like Buzzards as the Twins usually do. We do NOT need to sign relievers with average talent.

I think Winder could be quite successful in the bullpen. I think he was forced into starting because they didn't have enough starters to cover the innings they needed to cover.

[Cris E]

+

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I will say it again, I am not complaining about what they did last year (at least not here) and I understand some of the circumstances that may have lead to this. But to lead the majors in starts with starters having less than 99 pitches and be 29th in quality starts without ever user a "Starter" can't be summed up as "well the Twins are doing what everybody else is doing".

The Twins were not doing what the others were doing regardless of what they had planned. The Twins had 14 different people start games, including seven who made between 1 and 5 starts. Many of them were not MLB-quality guys, either callow youth or waiver wire refugees, who were covering for an injury hole. Even their good starters all hit the DL at one or more points and needed to work themselves back to full strength.  The plans were in tatters by April 1. 

[farmerguychris]

It is ridiculous of the F.O. to expect to not have starters see a batter a third time in a game, but then leave the BP completely unprepared for that kind of load.  Probably the biggest glaring mistake they've made IMO.  If you want the starters to go 4-5 innings fine, but you must then stock you BP with arms who can make up for the short starts period.

[Cris E]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think Winder could be quite successful in the bullpen. I think he was forced into starting because they didn't have enough starters to cover the innings they needed to cover.

People don't get pressed into starting without being stretched out first. Otherwise you just get a bullpen game and they don't need to go to the minors to find that.  Winder has always been a starter, and a good one, but he's had some injury problems recently.  I think they should let him start until he proves he can't before making him into a reliver. It's harder to find good starters than relievers and he's been on a great path so far, so let him grow.

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Many of them were not MLB-quality guys, either callow youth or waiver wire refugees, who were covering for an injury hole.

They started the season with a 6 man rotation and traded for another starter, that is half of the 14, one was 24 year old two time minor league pitcher of the year (had a higher average than the team). two were Top prospects (Winder and SWR - 1 game 5 innings). That gets us to 10. One was Smelzer who as a starter was actually fairly decent and brought the team average up. That leaves us 3 Chic Chi, Sanchez and Sands who made a total 8 starts. Lets not overlook the fact that this FO brought in Bundy (29 starts and 140 innings) and Archer (25 starts and 102.2 innings) and gave them 1/3 of all the teams starts for the year, traded for two injured guys, relied on a often injured guy (Ober) and the back up plan of Smelzter/Winder(injury prone) and cast offs and didn't plan for a bullpen of guys that could go multiple innings and left Varland in the minors much longer than needed when things weren't going well.

Also they had 4 starters in the top 87 starters that started games.  This is completely on the FO and its plan for the year.