The major undiscussed topic regarding Twins pitching

[Fire Dan Gladden]

There has been a lot of blame placed on the downfall of the pitching staff this past year:
- Rocco did not use the pitching staff appropriately in-season
- The FO did not spend money on reliable pitchers
- The Twins system of short starts and BP reliance cost us games

There is one topic that does not seem to get a lot mention, one that I believe may be the biggest issue of all for 2022:

What was the impact of Wes Johnson leaving mid-season?

So many things impacted by this one simple decision:
1) The loss of Rocco's sounding board for all pitching decisions
2) The switch in individual and group approaches, no matter how miniscule.
3) Having to build trust with new roles and relationships

Hard to downplay this.  I really believe this needs more attention. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I initially thought that with the staff going somewhat downhill the second half of the season that the cause was Wes leaving the team.  But, given that the Twins did not hire a new pitching coach and just made Pete Maki the permanent pitching coach, I guess that the team at least feels that he was not the cause of the decline.  Since they are closer to the situation that I am I guess I will defer to their judgement here.

[CRF]

I definitely think that Wes Johnson quitting mid season had an adverse effect on the pitching staff. I doubt that Baldelli, the FO, or any of the pitchers, would admit to that though. How much of an effect, and exactly what it was...I'm not smart enough to discern. There was a difference. Even though Maki was there and probably aware of everything that was taking place with the staff, there absolutely was a decline in performance. My opinion is, they should go outside the organization for a new pitching coach, instead of Maki. That won't happen of course. If Maki remains the pitching coach, it'll be very interesting to see what the staff does in 2023. Let's hope for the best.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

There has been a lot of blame placed on the downfall of the pitching staff this past year:
- Rocco did not use the pitching staff appropriately in-season
- The FO did not spend money on reliable pitchers
- The Twins system of short starts and BP reliance cost us games

There is one topic that does not seem to get a lot mention, one that I believe may be the biggest issue of all for 2022:

What was the impact of Wes Johnson leaving mid-season?

So many things impacted by this one simple decision:
1) The loss of Rocco's sounding board for all pitching decisions
2) The switch in individual and group approaches, no matter how miniscule.
3) Having to build trust with new roles and relationships

Hard to downplay this.  I really believe this needs more attention. 

The data doesn't really back this up in any concrete way, maybe July indicates a recalibration?

Johnson announcement came June 27, June while he was still here was one of the worst months of the season, July, shortly after he left was the worst, and August was one of the best months, if not the best month of pitching

                ERA    FIP   xFIP   FWAR

Mar/Ap 3.16     3.87    3.91   1.8

May       3.64   3.58    3.93   3.4

June      4.18   4.66     4.46     .3

July       5.3     5.07      4.43     -.4

August  3.46  3 .16        3.54       4.5

Sept/Oct  4.22  4.09     4.32   2.3   

I'm not saying there wasn't an impact, it had to be one, but that's a tough thing to dissect from the exterior

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The data doesn't really back this up in any concrete way, maybe July indicates a recalibration?

Johnson announcement came June 27, June while he was still here was one of the worst months of the season, July, shortly after he left was the worst, and August was one of the best months, if not the best month of pitching

                ERA    FIP   xFIP   FWAR

Mar/Ap 3.16     3.87    3.91   1.8

May       3.64   3.58    3.93   3.4

June      4.18   4.66     4.46     .3

July       5.3     5.07      4.43     -.4

August  3.46  3 .16        3.54       4.5

Sept/Oct  4.22  4.09     4.32   2.3   

I'm not saying there wasn't an impact, it had to be one, but that's a tough thing to dissect from the exterior

Without digging too deep here, your numbers look to support the argument that Johnson leaving had an impact.  The overall numbers appear to be substantially lower before he left.

Also, like a lot of things, this is a piece of the puzzle.  IMO this is a potential HUGE piece, and is getting virtually zero discussion.  Lots of blame being placed, but nothing on this.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Without digging too deep here, your numbers look to support the argument that Johnson leaving had an impact.  The overall numbers appear to be substantially lower before he left.

Also, like a lot of things, this is a piece of the puzzle.  IMO this is a potential HUGE piece, and is getting virtually zero discussion.  Lots of blame being placed, but nothing on this.

But if Johnson leaving is the cause, why is the bottom while he’s still here?

[stringer bell]

It seems to me that Johnson’s calling card was teaching and technical. He was able to get extra spin and mph for pitchers. Can his successor to the same? 
 

For the season, I think the Twins pitchers overperformed expectations and projections. There really doesn’t seem to be any evidence that they were able to avoid injury, although several (Gray, Ryan and Ober) missed time, but not for arm issues. 

[wsnydes]

I don't think it really made any difference.  It's not like they brought in a totally new voice with a totally new plan, the assistant simply got elevated.  Sure, each will have their own way of doing things, but the players knew him and how he operated.  

I think the injuries were a much bigger factor than Wes leaving.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just now, wsnydes said:

I don't think it really made any difference.  It's not like they brought in a totally new voice with a totally new plan, the assistant simply got elevated.  Sure, each will have their own way of doing things, but the players knew him and how he operated.  

I think the injuries were a much bigger factor than Wes leaving.  

That and not having very good options on 2/5 of the rotation out of the shoot

[theBOMisthebomb]

On 11/8/2022 at 2:12 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Without digging too deep here, your numbers look to support the argument that Johnson leaving had an impact.  The overall numbers appear to be substantially lower before he left.

Also, like a lot of things, this is a piece of the puzzle.  IMO this is a potential HUGE piece, and is getting virtually zero discussion.  Lots of blame being placed, but nothing on this.

The blame needs to get placed on Wes Johnson the person. It was unprofessional to leave midseason like that. True bush league move. I'm assuming Rocco and the Twins agreed to release him. What other reasonable choice did they have? I get that Wes was doubling his salary with less stress and travel. Still, he deserved a lot more heat and criticism for leaving the Twins in the cold in the middle of a division race. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

23 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

The blame needs to get placed on Wes Johnson the person. It was unprofessional to leave midseason like that. True bush league move. I'm assuming Rocco and the Twins agreed to release him. What other reasonable choice did they have? I get that Wes was doubling his salary with less stress and travel. Still, he deserved a lot more heat and criticism for leaving the Twins in the cold in the middle of a division race. 

Did he deserve the same blame for leaving Arkansas during recruiting season? How about you? Have you ever changed jobs?

the timing on when job changes happens is never right. Every worker in the US is on their own. It happens, it’s not some moral thing. Wes needed to do what was right for him, just like the rest of us.

[theBOMisthebomb]

27 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Did he deserve the same blame for leaving Arkansas during recruiting season? How about you? Have you ever changed jobs?

the timing on when job changes happens is never right. Every worker in the US is on their own. It happens, it’s not some moral thing. Wes needed to do what was right for him, just like the rest of us.

It was a low class move to leave in that fashion. I didn't say he didn't have the right to do it, I suppose it's a free country. The discussion was focused on where blame should have been placed and I believe that Wes deserved more heat for his actions. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

50 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

It was a low class move to leave in that fashion. I didn't say he didn't have the right to do it, I suppose it's a free country. The discussion was focused on where blame should have been placed and I believe that Wes deserved more heat for his actions. 

Have you ever changed jobs before. Are you a bad person for it?

[theBOMisthebomb]

9 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Have you ever changed jobs before. Are you a bad person for it?

Yes, I've changed jobs and in general I don't think changing jobs makes someone a bad person. I said Wes should have received more criticism and blame for his actions. I called his actions unprofessional, bush league, and low class. You are failing to consider that Wes didn't just leave a standard 9-5 job with a paycheck that most of us are used to. I'm assuming he had a signed contract and had to breach that contract to leave the Twins midseason. I'm guessing the Twins simply let him walk because it wasn't worth the effort and possible bad publicity to enact any legal remedies that might have had in the contract with Wes. Again, I don't begrudge Wes taking twice as much money for half the effort and less stress much closer to home. Good for him. It doesn't mean I have to agree with what Wes did, leaving the Twins in a lurch midseason chasing a playoff spot. I never called Wes a bad person. 

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

I said Wes should have received more criticism and blame for his actions. I called his actions unprofessional, bush league, and low class.

If he was staying in a similar role you can say all that crap, but he left pro ball to join an industry on a completely different seasonal schedule. He had been a college guy before, he tried the pros, and then he returned to his roots where he'd  had success and was making a boxcar load of cash. I don't think he owes you anything, and I don't think anybody else is holding him to your noble standards, and by all accounts that includes the pitchers he'd been working with. They all said the supportive and encouraging things, and there was no hint of anonymous sources bitching about it when he left.   

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

It was a low class move to leave in that fashion. I didn't say he didn't have the right to do it, I suppose it's a free country. The discussion was focused on where blame should have been placed and I believe that Wes deserved more heat for his actions. 

I've never heard firing managers or coaches during the season described as low class......

[theBOMisthebomb]

3 hours ago, Cris E said:

If he was staying in a similar role you can say all that crap, but he left pro ball to join an industry on a completely different seasonal schedule. He had been a college guy before, he tried the pros, and then he returned to his roots where he'd  had success and was making a boxcar load of cash. I don't think he owes you anything, and I don't think anybody else is holding him to your noble standards, and by all accounts that includes the pitchers he'd been working with. They all said the supportive and encouraging things, and there was no hint of anonymous sources bitching about it when he left.   

Well, Rocco and the front office said all the right things just to not create controversy as I'm sure it wasn't worth the headache. I'm doubtful the Twins organization was pleased with Wes' decision as he really left them in a bind. I wonder if the tables were turned and the Twins dumped a good guy like Wes midseason and had to pay him nothing if your story would be the same? I'm guessing people would have been crying of how a heartless organization could leave a good man jobless. It's interesting how when the tables are turned few consider the impact on the business. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

28 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I've never heard firing managers or coaches during the season described as low class......

Wes Johnson flat out quit on the Twins midseason in the middle of a playoff spot chase. He wasn't fired. Heck, Wes didn't even give the standard 15 day notice that every other courteous worker bee gives to their employer. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. 

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Wes Johnson flat out quit on the Twins midseason in the middle of a playoff spot chase. He wasn't fired. Heck, Wes didn't even give the standard 15 day notice that every other courteous worker bee gives to their employer. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. 

What I'm getting it is why the double standard?  A guy can be fired but can't quit?  Is there a standard 15 day notice when firing a guy.  Get over it.

[theBOMisthebomb]

41 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

What I'm getting it is why the double standard?  A guy can be fired but can't quit?  Is there a standard 15 day notice when firing a guy.  Get over it.

The Twins caught plenty of criticism when they fired Paul Molitor. I recall not being happy with the move and considered it a raw deal for Molitor. These are employees who have signed contracts, not at will employees. I'm not sure what double standard you are seeing, it wasn't advocated by me. I am assuming the contracts have remedies for both parties when an employee quits early or an employer fires an employee midseason. 

[Reptevia]

“Since they are closer to the situation that I am I guess I will defer to their judgement here.”  What???

[Rosterman]

I always wonder what the difference is between a major league pitching coach, and pitching coaches that start with players at the complex and work with pitchers thru the minors.

Once a pitcher reaches the majors, they should have a decent head for the game, and should know where they can succeed in throwing stuff. And then it becomes more of a game of numbers, prep for a game, and following a game plan...to win.

If there needs to be fixes, then you go back down to the minors. 

And, also, how does a guy like Maki (and even Wes) deal with grizzled veterans (or just 2-3 year highly paid pitchers) who think they know everything.

[Cris E]

Coaching major league players is hard because it takes a high level of achievement and a high level of confidence to reach an MLB roster, and both of those things make it hard to yield control of what works to an outsider to make changes. I have no idea how coaches, especially the younger ones or outsiders, can get through to players who have had success in the past but need to make changes today. Breaking through has to be an exercise in psychology as much as anything.

[DJL44]

I think it's low class to pay a major league pitching coach less than he can make working at a college.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

The Twins caught plenty of criticism when they fired Paul Molitor. I recall not being happy with the move and considered it a raw deal for Molitor. These are employees who have signed contracts, not at will employees. I'm not sure what double standard you are seeing, it wasn't advocated by me. I am assuming the contracts have remedies for both parties when an employee quits early or an employer fires an employee midseason. 

They didn't fire Molitor mid-season.

[Squirrel]

On 11/11/2022 at 7:44 AM, theBOMisthebomb said:

The Twins caught plenty of criticism when they fired Paul Molitor. I recall not being happy with the move and considered it a raw deal for Molitor. These are employees who have signed contracts, not at will employees. I'm not sure what double standard you are seeing, it wasn't advocated by me. I am assuming the contracts have remedies for both parties when an employee quits early or an employer fires an employee midseason. 

So, you're saying, if it wasn't what you wanted or would have done it's wrong and low-class? I know that's not what you are saying, but that's how you are reading. I'm pretty sure that Molitor was paid the remaining of his contract, it happened at the end of the season, and it really wasn't so surprising, imo. Wes leaving mid-season wasn't great, but that has been explained on every level. College ball operates on a different schedule and he needed to begin immediately. I know many aren't happy with taking the answer at face value because of course it had to be something else. This is the way it works and the Twins understood and let him go. While the timing was very unfortunate, that's just how it worked.

As to how that impacted the team ... we can only guess.