Why have the Twins been dumping so much salary and players the last couple years?

[TheLeviathan]

you would be a lot more certain of medical history

 

How'd that work with Mays and Blackburn? I think "certainty" of medical knowledge is pretty limited regardless. The fact is, you're giving up a lot of money and years to a pitcher, which carries a lot of risk.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not saying that extending guys is the only way to go but there are certainly reasons to do it.

 

I think the notion this carries less risk is invented and convenient. I'm going to need to see some proof that extension deals work out at a higher frequency than free agent ones. I see plenty of busts for both.

[Guest USAFChief]

Or you have to trade for and/or develop them yourself and extend while you still have control.

I thought we were discussing your preference for signing a stud pitcher or two a couple years from now. Now you're against the idea all together?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the notion this carries less risk is invented and convenient. I'm going to need to see some proof that extension deals work out at a higher frequency than free agent ones. I see plenty of busts for both.

 

I wouldn't say invented... Convenient, maybe. Overblown, likely.

[TheLeviathan]

I wouldn't say invented... Convenient, maybe. Overblown, likely.

 

I mean, I get what you're saying, but it boils down to shelling out a lot of risk to pitchers at some point to take that next step. I guess I'm not bias to whether they are extensions or free agents - just that they're good pitchers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I mean, I get what you're saying, but it boils down to shelling out a lot of risk to pitchers at some point to take that next step. I guess I'm not bias to whether they are extensions or free agents - just that they're good pitchers.

 

I'm always concerned with the NL-to-AL transition but other than that, I can't say that pitchers concern me too much given Target Field... I'd probably be more concerned with hitters, actually.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm always concerned with the NL-to-AL transition but other than that, I can't say that pitchers concern me too much given Target Field... I'd probably be more concerned with hitters, actually.

 

Agreed, on both counts. I don't like Grienke-level deals either, they are hard to swallow and the more you look at them, the more any deal like that just looks terrible logically. But sometimes that's the price you have to pay.

[Guest USAFChief]

There's also the inconvenient truth that extensions do not ADD talent to your team, they keep what you already have. Nothing wrong with that, but if the goal is to add pieces to your core, extensions don't help. Nor does something like letting a Cuddyer go and putting a Willingham in his place, for that matter.

[The Wise One]

How'd that work with Mays and Blackburn? I think "certainty" of medical knowledge is pretty limited regardless. The fact is, you're giving up a lot of money and years to a pitcher, which carries a lot of risk.

 

Then you have just provided 2 more reasons why signing pitchers to long term contracts is an expensive crapshoot.

 

Buying arb years is also a far different risk than a FA

[Oxtung]

Pelfrey pre injury is a far better option than Deduno Devries or Walters. While it may be questionable if he gets back to that level by midseason

 

Better options for pitchers yes. Significantly better no. At the end of the year there will be enough stastics to judge. My guess would be that a lot of these "better " options will still have fip above 4.25. Argueing which mediocre pitcher is better is pointless.

 

Pre-injury Pelfrey wasn't a very good pitcher. Pelfrey isn't pre-injury. In fact to start the season he wasn't even post-injury.

 

It doesn't matter what pitchers do during this season. All that matters is what was known during the offseason. What was known is that Correia and Pelfrey had pretty poor chances of putting up even an average season. A better than average season is highly unlikely. However there were several pitchers out there that had good chances of giving us an average or better season. It's not about what a pitcher can do. It's about probabilities of what a pitcher probably will do. Liriano could win the Cy this year but the probabilities would be pretty small on it happening. That's why the Angels signed Greinke and not Liriano.

[TheLeviathan]

Then you have just provided 2 more reasons why signing pitchers to long term contracts is an expensive crapshoot.

 

Buying arb years is also a far different risk than a FA

 

I wouldn't say it's a crapshoot, but it is an extremely expensive and risky undertaking. No one, so far as I can see, is denying that. But that's the price to both add and retain talent. Was Mauer riskless and cheap? I sure hope, if you have your hand up right now complaining about the price of pitching, that you were doing the same with him. And if you weren't - you're a hypocrite. If you were - then what exactly do you want? All 6-years-and-under-service-time guys on your team? It takes money to retain and add players and that comes with risk.

 

Also, buying arb years and FA is only different because of the dollar figures, the risk remains the same. Plenty of guys flame out for all kinds of reasons at all stages of their careers. Your point that the team has more intimate knowledge of a player to reduce risk just doesn't fly. There may be some marginal level of knowledge a team has taht is more than a FA pursuer, but scouting and physicals grab the vast majority of it. Afterall, if the Twins had such intimate knowledge over the last 6-10 years they'd have dealt Liriano after 10 starts, never even considered offering Johan a contract, dealt Nathan before his Tommy John, etc. Injuries/the human body are a pretty strong variable, to assert just being around a guy significantly reduces your risk because of knowledge of that just seems to be another hollow argument of convenience. It fits with half the posts in this thread, but that doesn't make it true.

[cmathewson]

Pre-injury Pelfrey wasn't a very good pitcher. Pelfrey isn't pre-injury. In fact to start the season he wasn't even post-injury.

 

It doesn't matter what pitchers do during this season. All that matters is what was known during the offseason. What was known is that Correia and Pelfrey had pretty poor chances of putting up even an average season. A better than average season is highly unlikely. However there were several pitchers out there that had good chances of giving us an average or better season. It's not about what a pitcher can do. It's about probabilities of what a pitcher probably will do. Liriano could win the Cy this year but the probabilities would be pretty small on it happening. That's why the Angels signed Greinke and not Liriano.

 

I think this is too strong. Dempster, sure. If we wanted to trade our best minor league reliever to get Santana for a year, fine. But most of the guys available on one- or two-year deals were not likely to have above-average years. Somewhere between replacement level and average was about what you'd expect. If you look at how they've done so far, you might get my point. Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum, etc. have not fared even as well as Pelfrey.

 

I don't expect either Pelfrey or Correia to have above-average years. I'll be happy for something approaching average, which is what I would hope for in each case on the list available to us. Looking at numbers in the offseason, it seemed less likely for those two than some of the names. But the odds on any of those guys was pretty low. I think Worley could at least be average, if not a little above, and that should count as an acquisition. Two out of three of those guys are rotation holders until Gibson, Meyer and May are ready, anyway.

 

Upshot: it was a pipe dream to think the Twins could build a short-term rotation to help them contend via free agency in a rebuilding year. The best they could reasonably hope for was a rotation that could keep them competitive until the front-line arms are ready. That is what they got. The burden of proof is on you for the claim that they would have done better if they hadn't been so cheap. So far, it isn't looking so good.

 

TFD: Think twice before demanding the Twins spend big in free agency | StarTribune.com

[drjim]

I thought we were discussing your preference for signing a stud pitcher or two a couple years from now. Now you're against the idea all together?

 

The more we talk this out the more I think signing a FA pitcher for the length required at that price at that stage of their career is a risk that is better off avoided.

 

There could be exceptions but Greinke and Sanchez were not it.

[old nurse]

 

TFD: Think twice before demanding the Twins spend big in free agency | StarTribune.com

 

From the article

 

 

Of the 17 most expensive free agents from the previous three seasons, only five of them led their team into the playoffs in their first year. This year's group is just approaching the first quarter of their first season, so the grades are far from complete. But slow starts -- or worse -- for big free agents who change teams have been common in recent years.Remember, too, the industry trends that have made free agency more inefficient. Teams prefer to lock up their best young players to extensions that buy out multiple free agent years. That leaves the free agent market with fewer choices -- choices that generally are older and/or less talented. Players such as Pujols, Hamilton, Dunn and Werth began their new contracts at 31 or older. In today's testing era, the older player is less valuable and more suspect to decline. And with restrictions on draft and international spending, owners are funneling those available dollars into free agency despite the few good choices there.

 

Read More: Once again, expensive free agents are failing to meet expectations - MLB - Tom Verducci - SI.com

[Willihammer]

it was a pipe dream to think the Twins could build a short-term rotation to help them contend via free agency in a rebuilding year.

 

2013 isn't shaping up to be a rebuilding year, is it?

[PseudoSABR]

2013 isn't shaping up to be a rebuilding year, is it?

Was that a reasonable expectation going into the season?

 

That said, trading for Josh Johnson at the deadline and resigning whets my appetitite.

[Willihammer]

Was that a reasonable expectation going into the season?

 

It was according to the FO.

[PseudoSABR]

It was according to the FO.

The deflection for the win. In spite of the modest lip-service, certainly the Twins use of resources speaks otherwise, no?

[cmathewson]

2013 isn't shaping up to be a rebuilding year, is it?

 

When you have five starting position players and two starting pitchers who have not had a complete year in the majors at their positions, you can't expect much more than a rebuilding year. That said, you never give up hope that it won't be a rebuilding year. And you can reasonably expect a competitive team even in rebuilding years if you rebuild well.

[IdahoPilgrim]

2013 isn't shaping up to be a rebuilding year, is it?

 

That depends how you define "rebuilding." If rebuilding means you lose 90 games but start putting pieces in place for the future, than no - I said at the start of the season I expected them to win 75-80 games, and I still think that.

 

But I don't see them as competing for the division title or the playoffs. With Detroit where they are now, .500 ball will not get you into a pennant race in September. So in that sense, yes, we are rebuilding.

[Willihammer]

The deflection for the win. In spite of the modest lip-service, certainly the Twins use of resources speaks otherwise, no?

 

Their penny pinching speaks to Jr's aversion to free agent spending. That is the source of everyone's frustration here. Or at least, mine. It is a separate topic from the rebuilding/not rebuilding 6 Year Rebuilding Plan to Compete, which doesn't seem to exist anywhere outside of Twinsdaily, btw.

[nicksaviking]

When you have five starting position players and two starting pitchers who have not had a complete year in the majors at their positions, you can't expect much more than a rebuilding year. That said, you never give up hope that it won't be a rebuilding year. And you can reasonably expect a competitive team even in rebuilding years if you rebuild well.

 

Yup, Tampa has been competitive and basically been rebuilding for the last six years. This is why some of us were saying in the off season that the team could still go after quality free agents. Rebuilding doesn't mean you have to intentionally go in the tank, it just means you are prepping a new crop of players who have little to no experience. It does not automatically disqualify winning. Or spending for that matter.

[Willihammer]

Rebuilding doesn't mean you have to intentionally go in the tank

 

But tanking 2013 is step 1 of The Plan!

[drjim]

Their penny pinching speaks to Jr's aversion to free agent spending. That is the source of everyone's frustration here. Or at least, mine. It is a separate topic from the rebuilding/not rebuilding 6 Year Rebuilding Plan to Compete, which doesn't seem to exist anywhere outside of Twinsdaily, btw.

 

Or a lack of good free agent options this offseason.

[drjim]

Yup, Tampa has been competitive and basically been rebuilding for the last six years. This is why some of us were saying in the off season that the team could still go after quality free agents. Rebuilding doesn't mean you have to intentionally go in the tank, it just means you are prepping a new crop of players who have little to no experience. It does not automatically disqualify winning. Or spending for that matter.

 

Twins also did it for a decade. And if you haven't noticed the Twins are breaking in and seeing what they have with many young players. While also trying to win!

 

I congratulate posters for taking the controversial stance that the Twins should sign quality free agents. I still think this is raging against a hypothetical. Closet analysis shows how few quality free agents there actually were last offseason.

[Willihammer]

Or a lack of good free agent options this offseason.

 

The 6 week mark is a little premature to make those judgments one way or the other IMHO. Certainly if none of the 30-odd FA SP candidates proves to be better than what we had in-house coming into 2013, then Ryan is nothing short of a genius and a prophet.

[Riverbrian]

I continue to care very very little about how much we spend or don't spend.

 

I care about... If the team gets key hits, makes key pitches and key plays in the field and I'm not sure that Team Payroll is related to those important facets of the game.

 

The Dodgers are spending 216 million and in last place.

The Angels are spending 127 Million and in last place.

The White Sox are spending 119 Million and in last place.

The Jays are spending 117 Million and in last place.

The Cubs are spending 104 Million and in last place.

 

Similiar stories every year.

[nicksaviking]

The 6 week mark is a little premature to make those judgments one way or the other IMHO. Certainly if none of the 30-odd FA SP candidates proves to be better than what we had in-house coming into 2013, then Ryan is nothing short of a genius and a prophet.

 

Who just happend to peg the value of every other free agent but somehow managed to overestimate the ability of a guy coming off TJ surgery with no history of being able to miss bats. Unfortunately his foresight was not able to save the team the the $4 million spent on Mike Pelfrey and now the season is ruined because they wasted that money!

[TheLeviathan]

The problem with Jim's argument is that his other arguments tell the real story. He has taken a difficult stance - that you should never sign deals with risk. As if those exist. Congrats, you sir have trumped us all in the race for "most difficult" stance.

 

Now please let those of us not content with absurd notions discuss.

[nicksaviking]

I continue to care very very little about how much we spend or don't spend.

 

I care about... If the team gets key hits, makes key pitches and key plays in the field and I'm not sure that Team Payroll is related to those important facets of the game.

 

The Dodgers are spending 216 million and in last place.

The Angels are spending 127 Million and in last place.

The White Sox are spending 119 Million and in last place.

The Jays are spending 117 Million and in last place.

The Cubs are spending 104 Million and in last place.

 

Similiar stories every year.

 

That's cherry picking bad teams from the high payroll ranks. We could do the same with the bottom payroll teams which the Twins are one of. Looks like the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds didn't make your list of teams spending over $100 million. The Cubs by the way have the 14th highest payroll and only 10 teams make the playoffs.

 

Say the Twins did sign Anibal Sanchez instead of Mike Pelfrey, and to get him away from Detroit, they gave him an extra $2 million a year, they still wouldn't be in the top 14. Or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 or 19.